Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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I found where you got that info from the FTC and found the subsequent paragraph quite interesting

'Courts look at the firm's market share, but typically do not find monopoly power if the firm (or a group of firms acting in concert) has less than 50 percent of the sales of a particular product or service within a certain geographic area.'

It makes a lot of sense now to see why they have defined the 'high-performance' market to exclude Nintendo, as without it even if MS acquired all IP they wouldn't come close to that threshold. And if they can't be deemed to be 'monopolising' the industry by their own definition, then it would make a legal challenge against the acquisition difficult.

They excluded Nintendo from the high performance market because they don't make high performance consoles

Good lord this is not difficult lol
 
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I found where you got that info from the FTC and found the subsequent paragraph quite interesting

'Courts look at the firm's market share, but typically do not find monopoly power if the firm (or a group of firms acting in concert) has less than 50 percent of the sales of a particular product or service within a certain geographic area.'

It makes a lot of sense now to see why they have defined the 'high-performance' market to exclude Nintendo, as without it even if MS acquired all IP they wouldn't come close to that threshold. And if they can't be deemed to be 'monopolising' the industry by their own definition, then it would make a legal challenge against the acquisition difficult.
They excluded Nintendo because Microsoft submitted internal strategy documents that explicitly said that Nintendo is not a direct competitor. They might have included Nintendo if Microsoft's internal strategy documents didn't say that.

Anyway, Microsoft would still fit that criterion. The CMA raised concerns on two points:
  1. Console market share: Microsoft currently has a 40% console market share in the UK, which would jump up to more than 55% if they acquire COD and make it exclusive, based on the surveys and analysis conducted by the CMA.
  2. Cloud gaming: Microsoft already has more than 60% market share in the UK cloud gaming market, which would increase further after the ABK acquisition.
 
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Microsoft would fit that criterion. The CMA raised concerns on two points:
  1. Console market share: Microsoft currently has a 40% console market share in the UK, which would jump up to more than 55% if they acquire COD and make it exclusive, based on the surveys and analysis conducted by the CMA.
  2. Cloud gaming: Microsoft already has more than 60% market share in the UK cloud gaming market, which would increase further after the ABK acquisition.

Surprised at the CMA's UK console share figures given PS5 has 80% market share from what I've read and between 70 -90% for PS4 (that's EU for PS4).
 
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I found where you got that info from the FTC and found the subsequent paragraph quite interesting

'Courts look at the firm's market share, but typically do not find monopoly power if the firm (or a group of firms acting in concert) has less than 50 percent of the sales of a particular product or service within a certain geographic area.'

It makes a lot of sense now to see why they have defined the 'high-performance' market to exclude Nintendo, as without it even if MS acquired all IP they wouldn't come close to that threshold. And if they can't be deemed to be 'monopolising' the industry by their own definition, then it would make a legal challenge against the acquisition difficult.

If the product is COD then acquisition gives MS 100% of the COD market - that is a monopoly on that product. Which also happens to be a very large revenue driver on other platforms today.

Also the regulators don't legally challenge the acquisition. The regulators approve the deal when notified, without that approval the deal doesn't go ahead. There is no presumption an acquisition or merger proceeds - the regulator decides.

It's up to MS to find a way to get that approval.
 
Surprised at the CMA's UK console share figures given PS5 has 80% market share from what I've read and between 70 -90% for PS4 (that's EU for PS4).
No, the UK is the second strongest market for Xbox.





Based on this console sales data, you can see how easy it was for the CMA to make the decision they made. This does not even take into account the Cloud gaming market in the UK, in which Microsoft/Xbox absolutely dominates.

1675964968_380_Google-Stadia-held-less-than-10-of-the-cloud-gaming.jpg
 
Surprised at the CMA's UK console share figures given PS5 has 80% market share from what I've read and between 70 -90% for PS4 (that's EU for PS4).

The deal isn't about consoles its about video game publishers.

This acquisition would elevate MS to 2nd largest publisher by revenue worldwide. Tencent is number 1.

That wouldn't be a problem if MS was a multi-platform third party publisher just like they positioned things after buying zenimax - but MS is not a third party publisher as zenimax proved. This deal would give MS a monopoly on a number of products that are currently high revenue drivers, independent and multi-platform.

MS takes those products from the market to prop up it's own platforms some of which it is already a dominant presence in - cloud for example. That cannot happen.
 
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Stop viewing games based on the console they're on and just based on looking like interesting games. Do you know there are people who would choose a game like Fallout or Elder Scrolls over a game like TLOU 10 times out of 10? And there are people who would choose a TLOU style game over Starfield? Just as there are people who would choose an Elden Ring over the next Spider-Man. Gamers are getting likely one of the games of the generation from Bethesda because they've never failed in making something memorable when they put their minds to making a great singleplayer rpg experience.

Fallout 4 was dated mediocre crap. Fallout 76 is straight up trash.

Skyrim was 12 years ago. Maybe there's a reason Bethesda were opening their legs to Sony exclusivity deals and then MS buyout.

Starfield didn't look good during its reveal that's for sure. It could still turn out to be a great game, a masterpiece even. I hope it does.
 
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If the product is COD then acquisition gives MS 100% of the COD market - that is a monopoly on that product. Which also happens to be a very large revenue driver on other platforms today.

Also the regulators don't legally challenge the acquisition. The regulators approve the deal when notified, without that approval the deal doesn't go ahead. There is no presumption an acquisition or merger proceeds - the regulator decides.

It's up to MS to find a way to get that approval.

But that doesn't make sense because any IP purchased for exclusivity would then be considered a monopoly by the FTC and that isn't the case.

The FTC challenges aquisitions legally from what I've read.
 
But that doesn't make sense because any IP purchased for exclusivity would then be considered a monopoly by the FTC and that isn't the case.

The FTC challenges aquisitions legally from what I've read.

And perhaps you have an example of an IP purchased for platform exclusivity in recent times?

I sure can think of a few lol.

FTC challenges nothing. It decides and it doesn't have to meet courtroom legality criteria in making that decision.
 
No, the UK is the second strongest market for Xbox.





Based on this console sales data, you can see how easy it was for the CMA to make the decision they made. This does not even take into account the Cloud gaming market in the UK, in which Microsoft/Xbox absolutely dominates.

1675964968_380_Google-Stadia-held-less-than-10-of-the-cloud-gaming.jpg

I'm genuinely surprised it's that close in the uk

Edit: Sorry, I just re-read and that excludes Nintendo so they don't have that high a share in UK at all.
 
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Fallout 4 was dated mediocre crap. Fallout 76 is straight up trash.

Skyrim was 12 years ago. Maybe there's a reason Bethesda were opening their legs to Sony exclusivity deals and then MS buyout.

Starfield didn't look good during its reveal that's for sure. It could still turn out to be a great game, a masterpiece even. I hope it does.
R.a2561ebed0af5609b9d92953b12d6025
 
Perhaps he's trawling the fanboy twitter posts to see if anyone can come up with a good spin he can put on this story. That tweet of yosp and colteatswood won't do at all

I don't envy the PR team that has to work out the message from all this.



Depends if you look at this from a legal standpoint as a regulator, or as a consumer who is already happy with MS's offerings and want more.

If you're the latter, your opinion doesn't matter to the former.

The regulators are interested in customers of competing products or those who are not customers of any product. They want to determine the impact on these demographics of the acquisition.

For the regulators its pretty simple - they just consider what is legally "reasonable" in the market place.

Evidently they have decided it is not reasonable for the company that has not been selected as market leader by consumers, to acquire and therefore control without limit, some of the most valuable independent content. The regulators have concluded this could lead to a reduction of consumer choice going forward.

Those same regulators don't rule against exclusivity deals for content because those are reasonable and indeed customary practice in the videogame market. A practice that MS has availed themselves of at various times.

In fact content exclusivity deals are a principle applied across many markets, not just videogames and they occur precisely because regulators more often than not, don't care or regulate those - they do care and regulate acquisitions and mergers though.

So yeah - MS's attempted acquisition of ABK is unreasonable and not customary practice in the videogame market with the potential to harm consumer choice and it also happens to be a regulated element of business conduct. MS could've probably got long term exclusivity deals passed - acquisition, no.

As it happens regulators don't need a cut dried case - their decisions are based on a prediction using analysis of current conditions and that's enough for their purposes.

All the other stuff dragged into this thread about exclusives and studio purchases and various aggressive business practices are simply irrelevant for regulators.
My only thought is that the regulators don't fundamentally seem to understand the industry. If MS is able to build a case off of their subpeona of SONY, this decision might change as the outlook of the regulators. But your right, the CMA at the very least doesn't need a clear cut case as there is no litigation unless the government gets involved. FTC on the other hand likely doesn't have the same ability and would have to win in the courts which is a different thing entirely.
 
Star Wars and Marvel for Disney +?

So if the FTC don't go to court, what's this about?
https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2023/02/ftc-admits-defeat-in-antitrust-battle-with-facebook/

Lol. Ok.

I was thinking about MS buying zenimax - the very action which has led to them not being able to acquire ABK.

I didn't say the FTC doesn't go to court - I said it doesn't challenge acquisitions, it decides.

There are reasons the FTC goes to court - usually to take out an injunction against a company trying to make an acquisition. At that point it is up to the company in question to get the injunction quashed in court vs the FTC. Many companies don't bother - they accept the FTC decision and halt the process because going up against the FTC is costly and largely futile.

Oh, so far the FTC has a 100% record of having the decisions it made upheld in the adjudicative court - that would be the court MS is preparing for now.

The FTC is also the US system. CMA is UK, their decision doesn't even need an injunction like this.
 
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Good lord lol

Sony is a protected company in Japan, and PlayStation is a core component of them. Neither of them are getting sold
It's called the Japanese Fair Trade Commission. Call it Japan's FTC, if you will. They pushed for and evaluated a law back in 2019, that prevents consolidation by outside entities(if it's labelled as harmful to competition). It was voted effective as of late 2020. So, any pipe-dreams of an American company easily buying a company within Japan without their deal being laughed at and jeopardized is at this point just that. A wet dream.
 
My only thought is that the regulators don't fundamentally seem to understand the industry. If MS is able to build a case off of their subpeona of SONY, this decision might change as the outlook of the regulators. But your right, the CMA at the very least doesn't need a clear cut case as there is no litigation unless the government gets involved. FTC on the other hand likely doesn't have the same ability and would have to win in the courts which is a different thing entirely.
The fact that both regulators seem to be discounting Nintendo from the market would seem to be something that I would think MS would challenge if they were to challenge anything.
 
My only thought is that the regulators don't fundamentally seem to understand the industry. If MS is able to build a case off of their subpeona of SONY, this decision might change as the outlook of the regulators. But your right, the CMA at the very least doesn't need a clear cut case as there is no litigation unless the government gets involved. FTC on the other hand likely doesn't have the same ability and would have to win in the courts which is a different thing entirely.

I actually think you don't understand the market and the regulators are much better informed.

You are as you said, interested in playing stuff on MS platforms. What did you say? Playstation is your least favoured ecosystem. Fine.

But your position is that of a minority in the console gaming space and that market has developed over several decades now. All those people who aren't like you, don't want to be forced to do things a different way.

Those consumers can choose where to put their money, but a company acquiring what has been an independent product line for decades, taking it from the market and limiting distribution to a single platform is not good for consumers. Especially when that is through acquisition where there is no time limit at all.

Oh and by the way, FTC has a 100% win record in its adjudicative court process where MS is preparing now. CMA decision will likely stop this deal, but if it sees the court in the US it will effectively be halted there too.
 
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The fact that both regulators seem to be discounting Nintendo from the market would seem to be something that I would think MS would challenge if they were to challenge anything.
What he's saying is that the CMA doesn't work under that kind of process.

FTC has its own court, where it usually wins, but if you want to appeal, you take it to Federal court, and if you win, FTC can't stop you anymoee (which is why MS is confident there).

Meanwhile the CMA decides, and if MS wants to appeal, the appeal eventually drops the case back into CMA's lap so they can cockblock them again.

This is why Microsoft has gone completely radio silent ever since the CMA provisional finding came out. Antitrust laws are robust in the UK unlike the US.
 
What he's saying is that the CMA doesn't work under that kind of process.

FTC has its own court, where it usually wins, but if you want to appeal, you take it to Federal court, and if you win, FTC can't stop you anymoee (which is why MS is confident there).

Meanwhile the CMA decides, and if MS wants to appeal, the appeal eventually drops the case back into CMA's lap so they can cockblock them again.

This is why Microsoft has gone completely radio silent ever since the CMA provisional finding came out. Antitrust laws are robust in the UK unlike the US.

This is my understanding too with a couple of caveats.

In the UK the CMA decision cannot be challenged - the case against the CMA has to be that it acted "irrationally" or was in some way deliberately negligent.

Usually this is a side line to try and get the decision reviewed but as you say, in review the CMA has thus far decided it was correct the first time.

For the FTC yes it has its own court - this was supposed to speed up the process because the Federal court takes years to unwind.

So usually you'll get a decision from the FTC in a reasonable amount of time - and its a decision that doesn't have to meet courtroom legal standards of admissibility. If the internal court find against the FTC, the FTC can appeal through its own court. As a result it has a 100% record of winning these.

Yes a company can appeal to federal courts, but the FTC overwhelmingly wins these too because the standard of evidence required in a federal court is different to that in the FTC court. There is a feeling that the federal courts are biased to accept the decisions already made at lower courts too.

Either way, going the federal court route leaves them in limbo for years.

As it happens, I believe in the US, while awaiting a court decision MS could go ahead with the acquisition. But then, if found in breach it would be faced with punitive damages from the FTC, open to litigation from all affected parties, and forced to divest immediately. So it would lose hundreds of billions - if on the losing side of this.

They better be sure ABK is worth it.
 
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New report from MLex:

- Microsoft will make the case for the acquisition in Europe at a closed-door hearing in Brussels next week.
- The hearing will take place on Tuesday, Feb. 21.
- Company executives and lawyers will face off with the commission's case team at the hearing, which also attended by a broader audience of commission officials and representatives from the bloc's national competition watchdogs.
- Customers and rivals can also ask to attend; Sony is expected to be there.
- The hearing allows companies to reinforce the points they will have made in their written responses. The EC and other market players will also express their views.

From Idas at Era.
 
New report from MLex:

- Microsoft will make the case for the acquisition in Europe at a closed-door hearing in Brussels next week.
- The hearing will take place on Tuesday, Feb. 21.
- Company executives and lawyers will face off with the commission's case team at the hearing, which also attended by a broader audience of commission officials and representatives from the bloc's national competition watchdogs.
- Customers and rivals can also ask to attend; Sony is expected to be there.
- The hearing allows companies to reinforce the points they will have made in their written responses. The EC and other market players will also express their views.

From Idas at Era.
Will be interesting to see if the EC get influenced by CMAs strong opposition in the PF. Although they have given their objections out so i assume they can't go back and add on stronger objections, but who knows they may play hardball with what they have.
 
I hope MS goes in there the same way their fans are going online. "EC you don't know anything, this is ridiculous, completely misunderstand the market. Brainless, dimwits. Trust us BRO"
 
What I dont get is how on the same forum do we have people championing that Microsoft are failing and that Sony is dominating them, then you have people sharing that the Split between Sony and MS (in the second largest market) is 60 / 40 split...... with MS not releasing any games in 2022 but game pass and Xbox are failing.

....I'm struggling with this place this week lol Think I need a few days off Gaf and play the Wizard game.
 
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This is my understanding too with a couple of caveats.

In the UK the CMA decision cannot be challenged - the case against the CMA has to be that it acted "irrationally" or was in some way deliberately negligent.

Usually this is a side line to try and get the decision reviewed but as you say, in review the CMA has thus far decided it was correct the first time.

For the FTC yes it has its own court - this was supposed to speed up the process because the Federal court takes years to unwind.

So usually you'll get a decision from the FTC in a reasonable amount of time - and its a decision that doesn't have to meet courtroom legal standards of admissibility. If the internal court find against the FTC, the FTC can appeal through its own court. As a result it has a 100% record of winning these.

Yes a company can appeal to federal courts, but the FTC overwhelmingly wins these too because the standard of evidence required in a federal court is different to that in the FTC court. There is a feeling that the federal courts are biased to accept the decisions already made at lower courts too.

Either way, going the federal court route leaves them in limbo for years.

As it happens, I believe in the US, while awaiting a court decision MS could go ahead with the acquisition. But then, if found in breach it would be faced with punitive damages from the FTC, open to litigation from all affected parties, and forced to divest immediately. So it would lose hundreds of billions - if on the losing side of this.

They better be sure ABK is worth it.

There was actually a fourth loss for the FTC since this was written.

Also they aren't going to lose hundreds of billions... not sure where you came up with that number.
 
I hope MS goes in there the same way their fans are going online. "EC you don't know anything, this is ridiculous, completely misunderstand the market. Brainless, dimwits. Trust us BRO"

And waving tweeted NPD sales figures.


What I dont get is how on the same forum do we have people championing that Microsoft are failing and that Sony is dominating them, then you have people sharing that the Split between Sony and MS (in the second largest market) is 60 / 40 split...... with MS not releasing any games in 2022 but game pass and Xbox are failing.

....I'm struggling with this place this week lol Think I need a few days off Gaf and play the Wizard game.

It's a "competition" there's nothing to say one corp can't dominate another by following the rules of the competition.

Sony, Nintendo doing it by the book - MS trying to circumvent the book.

Also for sales figures - yep it's actually close as it was for Xbone way back when.

The problem is the trend - Sony and Nintendo are trending up (ok Switch is a mature platform now - their up isn't as strong), MS … well down as far as anyone can tell right now.
 
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I hope MS goes in there the same way their fans are going online. "EC you don't know anything, this is ridiculous, completely misunderstand the market. Brainless, dimwits. Trust us BRO"

Yeah, it would be funny if Sony reps there act like brainless trolls as well ya know!
 
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There was actually a fourth loss for the FTC since this was written.

Also they aren't going to lose hundreds of billions... not sure where you came up with that number.

One (EDIT 2) of those is a DOJ case - MS is not at that court. The other 2 (EDIT 1) are on appeal by the FTC - they haven't lost an appeal in 25 years so there's no reason to expect a different outcome here.

(EDIT : Oh the FTC example had a bunch of remedies offered and the FTC still said "no". We're waiting on MS for remedies - the claim here is that MS will just appeal and overturn the FTC decision and won't have to offer remedies - no that won't be the case. )

As for MS going ahead and then federal court finding against them …

Forced divestment of 70bn of ABK after how ever many years before the court overturns the MS acquisition.

And then punitive damages from the FTC, damage claims from the competition who felt they made losses over the time MS had ABK under control, and probably class action suits from consumers.

The US then uses punishment fines - they'll make MS hurt enough based on their wealth, that they won't repeat the transgression.

This is why you hear about those ridiculous large payouts in the US to someone who suffered relatively minor injuries - its to penalise the transgressor.
 
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What I dont get is how on the same forum do we have people championing that Microsoft are failing and that Sony is dominating them, then you have people sharing that the Split between Sony and MS (in the second largest market) is 60 / 40 split...... with MS not releasing any games in 2022 but game pass and Xbox are failing.

....I'm struggling with this place this week lol Think I need a few days off Gaf and play the Wizard game.

You don't get how a forum with as many posters as GAF can have a variety of takes on a variety of topics?
 
What I dont get is how on the same forum do we have people championing that Microsoft are failing and that Sony is dominating them, then you have people sharing that the Split between Sony and MS (in the second largest market) is 60 / 40 split...... with MS not releasing any games in 2022 but game pass and Xbox are failing.

....I'm struggling with this place this week lol Think I need a few days off Gaf and play the Wizard game.

I'm bipolar
 
What I dont get is how on the same forum do we have people championing that Microsoft are failing and that Sony is dominating them, then you have people sharing that the Split between Sony and MS (in the second largest market) is 60 / 40 split...... with MS not releasing any games in 2022 but game pass and Xbox are failing.

....I'm struggling with this place this week lol Think I need a few days off Gaf and play the Wizard game.
Not that difficult to understand.
  • UK is Xbox's second strongest market; the ratio is 60:40. The CMA estimates the console market share to flip in favor of Xbox (~55:45) if Xbox acquires ABK and makes COD exclusive.
  • XCloud market share in the UK is 60-70%, which means Xbox already dominates the Cloud gaming market in the UK and would dominate further if ABK is approved.
The CMA made its decision based on the above two points.
  • Worldwide, however, PS5 is outselling Xbox by a ratio of roughly 1.6. And that gap is widening now that PS5 is doubling (UK) and tripling (EU) its console sales, while Xbox's declining by 32% (EU) and x% (UK and US).
TL;DR: Xbox has a 60/40 market share in the UK. It is being outsold by PS5 significantly and worse than last gen. Both things can be true at the same time.
 
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Halo 3 was huge, as was Gears of War and Gears of War 2.

The reveal of Gears of War was insane back then.

Here in the UK it had the gaming community in a frenzy and sold really well here and in Europe. Gears 2 was the first midnight launch I ever went to and the lines were thing. And a couple of fights broke out :messenger_tears_of_joy:


If you asked someone on the street if they heard of Halo or Gears of War, they might have heard of Halo, but Gears would be unlikely. I'm not saying it wasn't popular, I just don't think it had significant mindshare that it was significantly moving the needle.
 
If you asked someone on the street if they heard of Halo or Gears of War, they might have heard of Halo, but Gears would be unlikely. I'm not saying it wasn't popular, I just don't think it had significant mindshare that it was significantly moving the needle.

I disagree. That sad song Gears of War ad was major.

Up to halfway of 360's lifecycle Xbox had its finger on the pulse of gaming. Even though the RROD was as real as it gets, and everyone I know had to replace theirs at least once, 360 was the biggest thing in gaming. Gears was very much part of it.

I don't know how old you are, but if you were in it back then then you know.

Xbox 1 and 360 were good times, shame MS started paying too much attention to the console business and put shit heads in charge.
 
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New report from MLex:

- Microsoft will make the case for the acquisition in Europe at a closed-door hearing in Brussels next week.
- The hearing will take place on Tuesday, Feb. 21.
- Company executives and lawyers will face off with the commission's case team at the hearing, which also attended by a broader audience of commission officials and representatives from the bloc's national competition watchdogs.
- Customers and rivals can also ask to attend; Sony is expected to be there.
- The hearing allows companies to reinforce the points they will have made in their written responses. The EC and other market players will also express their views.

From Idas at Era.
EU will approve easy.
 
What I dont get is how on the same forum do we have people championing that Microsoft are failing and that Sony is dominating them, then you have people sharing that the Split between Sony and MS (in the second largest market) is 60 / 40 split...... with MS not releasing any games in 2022 but game pass and Xbox are failing.

....I'm struggling with this place this week lol Think I need a few days off Gaf and play the Wizard game.

Take those few days off. You've been very emotional and whiny these last few days. Your usually reasonable but your act has been slipping recently.
 
What I dont get is how on the same forum do we have people championing that Microsoft are failing and that Sony is dominating them, then you have people sharing that the Split between Sony and MS (in the second largest market) is 60 / 40 split...... with MS not releasing any games in 2022 but game pass and Xbox are failing.

....I'm struggling with this place this week lol Think I need a few days off Gaf and play the Wizard game.

Cu in an hour.

I'm bipolar

Sorry bro, but that's schizophrenia, not bipolar.
 
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