Is there a scenario where Sony refuses Xbox’s concession to the point where they lose CoD within 5 years of the acquisition?
Does Sony have anything to lose from constant refusal, other than dignity.
No. Sony is refusing the deal cause they are opposed to the purchase. The moment they accept a deal, the only major opposition to it will be vacated in front of regulators. What MS and ATVI are doing now is called a public pressure campaign. The fact that they are leaning so hard on this indicates this is really their only recourse left - it seems like MS leadership is not interested in divestment as a structural remedy, per Brad Smith's comments today, so that only leaves convincing opposition to come to the table.
The fact that Sony has yet to sign anything doesn't indicate that Sony will lose CoD. Kotick is saying that Sony is not returning their calls, knowing full well that as per the purchasing agreement he signed, ATVI is not allowed to make any deals with anyone while this acquisition is going through regulators, so even if he wanted to make a deal, he couldn't. In fact, the reason why its MS making these deals with Nintendo and NVidia and not ATVI themselves is because ATVI *cannot make deals while they are being acquired*.
Kotick and ATVI and Lulu are all fully aware of this. They just know its a PR war they have and not much else now.
Sony refusing the deal doesn't lose them anything, including dignity (they are a multi-billion dollar company, not a child - who gives a fuck about dignity in the corporate world? LOL).