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[sainraja]

Based on some people's posts here, it sounds like a done deal. Given that everyone thinks MS can easily circumvent the "block," if that comes to be, by doing something else so they can still get what they want. If that really is the case, why does anyone bother with this song and dance and just let it go through? If all it takes is some lobbying and spending money, it all seems so pointless to me. Where is all the confidence coming from? And why is it so convoluted lol.

I suppose it is all about the money anyway in the end.

Before we go anywhere, I want to say something.

Anyone who thinks MS will/should leave the UK Incase the CMA blocks the deal, needs to check reality.

MS will lose more than what they spent on Activision, if they decide to do that. Their stock will crash, and other countries might sanction MS because of their behavior.

Then you have the EU which will try and break up MS. They will also have to deal with FTC in the US.

To put it simply, that decision will harm MS compared to UK.

People need to learn the consequences of actions like these.

I guess some people will fantasize about anything given their interest in seeing it pass through without any concessions.

 

[Three]

When those publishers come to MS wanting to be bought:

You haven't read the SEC filing i take it.

 

[wolffy71]

Based on some people's posts here, it sounds like a done deal. Given that everyone thinks MS can easily circumvent the "block," if that comes to be, by doing something else so they can still get what they want. If that really is the case, why does anyone bother with this song and dance and just let it go through? If all it takes is some lobbying and spending money, it all seems so pointless to me. Where is all the confidence coming from? And why is it so convoluted lol.

I suppose it is all about the money anyway in the end.


I guess some people will fantasize about anything given their interest in seeing it pass through without any concessions.

"Circumvent the block", you have to remember it's only a block for the UK. They can't actually stop Microsoft from buying Activision. They can only impose whatever sanctions afterwards.

There's 100s of nations that could pass a law forbidding the merger. But those only matter in that country.

The question is, what does MS view as more valuable, Activision, that nations business, and how many other nations are also gonna block.

Cuz if they feel half the countries in the world will block, that's a huge price. But if it's only a country or two, well that might be more acceptable.

 

[Varteras]

I think the idea isn't so much that they would leave the UK.

It's more the UK blocks it and Microsoft says we'll we're still doing the deal.

Then what happens? Does MS get banned from the UK? That would be a tough call.

MS reported profit from the UK is a bit under $150 mil last year.

If MS can't close doesn't it cost them a pretty sizable amount? At what point does the risk of losing that $150M yearly make sense. IDK but I'm fairly certain it's just math at some point. It adds up or it doesnt.

For one, the UK would tell them that they can't sell Xbox in their country. Two, the deal stipulates that the EC, CMA, and FTC have to all approve the deal or it's off. I'll reference my previous post.

Even then you're leaving Xbox in just one effective market and gambling that never changes. Outside of North America and the UK, it's getting crushed and has been. You would make it even easier for competitors to squeeze you out of the market.

Sony already leverages its market share to get deals. Now imagine them being able to tell a third-party that if they want their game to sell in the UK, PlayStation is their only option for a high performance console. It would ultimately lead to a much greater number of exclusivity deals.

Sony's global market share would instantly jump. This would also free Sony up to heavily focus on marketing and deals in North America. Because when you're so far ahead everywhere else, or even the only one around, you don't need to convince people to buy PlayStation. They already are.

It would very likely be the deathblow to Xbox and it would be by Microsoft's own doing.

 

[poppabk]

that's the only way to get new games. And if a publisher has the talent, they can build new teams whenever they want to do it.

Sony literally has been doing it for years, which leads to new games for PlayStation gamers. Buying ABK or Zenimax didn't bring any new games to Xbox that they wouldn't have got otherwise. Acquiring established teams literally get Xbox gamers the same games, despite MS spending billions of dollars.

In the last 10 years? There is Pixel Opus and?

 

[jm89]

"Circumvent the block", you have to remember it's only a block for the UK. They can't actually stop Microsoft from buying Activision. They can only impose whatever sanctions afterwards.

There's 100s of nations that could pass a law forbidding the merger. But those only matter in that country.

The question is, what does MS view as more valuable, Activision, that nations business, and how many other nations are also gonna block.

Cuz if they feel half the countries in the world will block, that's a huge price. But if it's only a country or two, well that might be more acceptable.

 

[feynoob]

Pretending to be above the fray while being one of the biggest console warriors on here is the real yawn inducer.

Remember kids, if you disagree with someone, call them "console warriors" like our friend here.
That should teach them something.

 

[feynoob]

But would the UK ever call their bluff? Doubtful

UK has the power to open up a case against MS.
Its MS best interest not to make the CMA an enemy.
EU is MS biggest obstacle to their business. If MS tries to mess with CMA, they can just contact EU and FTC to break up MS.

 

[wolffy71]

For one, the UK would tell them that they can't sell Xbox in their country. Two, the deal stipulates that the EC, CMA, and FTC have to all approve the deal or it's off. I'll reference my previous post.

I'm sure xbox could amend that if they wanted. There's no reason Activision would want that. It's in there for MSs protection.

And yes the UK would say that. That's the whole point, what does MS want more? Activision or the UK market?

 

[Bonsaibäumchen]

I think the idea isn't so much that they would leave the UK.

It's more the UK blocks it and Microsoft says we'll we're still doing the deal.

Then what happens? Does MS get banned from the UK? That would be a tough call.

MS reported profit from the UK is a bit under $150 mil last year.

If MS can't close doesn't it cost them a pretty sizable amount? At what point does the risk of losing that $150M yearly make sense. IDK but I'm fairly certain it's just math at some point. It adds up or it doesnt.

First off it dosn't work that way.
Do you really think Companys can just do business how they want?
That would be a corporatocracy.

Secondly even IF they could do that do you really believe EU and FTC would then allow this deal? They would shred MS to pieces.

 

[wolffy71]

First off it dosn't work that way.
Do you really think Companys can just do business how they want?
That would be a corporatocracy.

Secondly even IF they could do that do you really believe EU and FTC would then allow this deal? They would shred MS to pieces.

Yes it does work that way. No the EU and FTC would have no legal grounds to " tear them to shreds"

It's not doing business how they want. If the UK blocks it, that would be their decision. That has nothing to do with MS per say. MS would simply have to follow what the UK says, which would likely block them from the market. They violate nothing by simply obeying that order.

Meanwhile they function normally in their other markets.

 

[reksveks]

The reputational damage MS would be subject to worldwide for pulling a stunt like this would literally negatively impact all aspects of the business for decades.

There’s a reason why the biggest companies don’t tend to act like cowboys and instead cooperate with the governments of where they operate.

I can’t believe we’re here yet again talking about this when

A. It won’t happen.
B. The suggestion it could is infantile in the extreme.

Yeah, the reputational damage is too big, it is the nuclear option for a company.

Your numbers are OK but you've used two different ABK revenue values. The $0.9B would be against $7.2B in revenue. If the ABK revenue you're using is from a different year that's $8B then the $0.9B would probably be higher.
The £5B is what that random user is stating as the UK revenue for MS, no idea what year it's from or if it's even reliable but I kept that as the only unreliable value in the calculations. To me £5B on £126B seems low for the UK. You would need to convert that into dollars so it's $6B. That investment would not be looking good.

Yeah, I have question marks about the 5 billion gbp as well number for the UK as well.

 

[Gamezone]

Nope, it would be on the Xbox App on PC instead.

I don't think so. Microsoft have released pretty much everything bedsides Minecraft on Steam at this point.

 

[wolffy71]

How much money does xbox lose if they don't close the deal?

 

[SportsFan581]

First off it dosn't work that way.
Do you really think Companys can just do business how they want?
That would be a corporatocracy.

Secondly even IF they could do that do you really believe EU and FTC would then allow this deal? They would shred MS to pieces.

Businesses completely have the right to operate in the jurisdictions of their choosing. LOL

The US, EU, and UK only have direct influence over companies that operate or import to their respective jurisdiction. This is why the US doesn't have the power to shutdown sweatshops in impoverished nations around the world etc.

Certainly, a business can choose to not operate within the UK. Many smaller online shops already did that when the UK changed their bookkeeping rules several years back, as it became too much trouble to handle sales records in the manner required for shops that had 4 or 5 sales to UK residents a year. Those shops simply quit offering services to UK residents.

Lets not act like every business has to operate everywhere under everyone else's rules. Some of the rules about women in the workplace would be quite problematic if Iran and similar jurisdictions had that kind of far reaching input. Plus, you'd quickly run into issues where the workplace laws of different nations contradicted each other, etc.

Is it an extremely unlikely, one could say preposterous scenario, sure. But, if MS wanted to pull out of the UK (or take the risk of having that decision made for them), it is possible for it to happen.

For another recent example, this is why it was easy for many companies to pull out of Russia. Russian law couldn't force them to stay.

 

[DrFigs]

Out of curiosity, do you people assume folks pay for Gamepass with bananas? Or thoughts and prayers?
The service keeps people subscribed, paying $10 - $15 monthly to play these games. Over 25 millions people now, and trending upward. You’d have to imagine these numbers go up significantly if COD is put on the service. And people who play games like COD will remain subscribed for Long.

At the same time, the games are on sale on every other platform. Each Call of Duty game brings billions in revenue from PlayStation and PC releases. Cost already likely fully recouped in a short while.

The Netflix comparison isn’t apt, since content cost for these platforms are spiraling, and total expenditure on content goes over the $10bn mark.

I didn't even think I said something crazy. You don't expect gamepass's price to increase? Like ever?

 

[FIREKNIGHT2029]

MS won't pull out of UK if CMA blocks the deal. Let's stop entertaining this stupid idea in this thread.

The deal will just simply get blocked and MS can appeal if they choose to but it won't make much of a difference.


It's already written in the deal that CMA, FTC and EU all have to approve the deal for it go through.

MS will either come to an agreement with the CMA or the deal is dead in the water regardless of whether the EU approves or not.

 

[wolffy71]

MS won't pull out of UK if CMA blocks the deal. Let's stop entertaining this stupid idea in this thread.

The deal will just simply get blocked and MS can appeal if they choose to but it won't make much of a difference.


It's already written in the deal that CMA, FTC and EU all have to approve the deal for it go through.

MS will either come to an agreement with the CMA or the deal is dead in the water regardless of whether the EU approves or not.

It wouldn't be them stopping it would be the UK blocking them

 

[bender]

Microsoft will just purchase the 27 member states of the European Union to get this deal pushed through.

 

[freefornow]

How much money does xbox lose if they don't close the deal?

I think they pay ActiBlizz US$3B.
Plus they lose all the future potential revenue.
And according to some here, XBox division would lose it's leader.

 

[Varteras]

I'm sure xbox could amend that if they wanted. There's no reason Activision would want that. It's in there for MSs protection.

And yes the UK would say that. That's the whole point, what does MS want more? Activision or the UK market?

The fact that's part of the deal and benefits Microsoft says all you need to know. They don't want to go through a deal where they have to leave Europe, the UK, or the US.

Activision is not worth leaving, or being forced out of, the UK. Be it just gaming or entirely. Anyone who believes Microsoft as a whole would pull out of the UK over buying a company that MIGHT greatly grow their market share in games a decade from now, especially when they could pursue other options the regulators wouldn't fight, is fucking brain dead and needs their plug pulled.

Microsoft being okay losing the only other major gaming market outside the US that they're competitive in would be equally dumb. It would run completely counter to Microsoft's claims of trying to be more competitive. You don't get more competitive by leaving one of the only markets you actually stand a chance in. How that could go very badly for Xbox I already spelled out and likely missed a couple more points. Like possibly having to close or relocate studios from the UK.

This revenge fantasy that Xbox fanboys have would only hurt THEM when it comes to gaming. Which is the wildest part of this little "what if" scenario being ran with. That they are the ones impacted by something like that in the short to midterm. The only way that happens is if Microsoft is run by the same kind of morons who believe this drivel, or that it's finally made more obvious than ever that Microsoft doesn't give a fuck about Xbox.

 

[adamsapple]

Microsoft will just purchase the 27 member states of the European Union to get this deal pushed through.

What good is a war chest if you can't flaunt it mirite ?

 

[POKEYCLYDE]

I didn't even think I said something crazy. You don't expect gamepass's price to increase? Like ever?

It would be crazy to think Gamepass won't increase it's pricing. Phil said as much when they announced the increase to $70 games.

I have seen some crazy thoughts around this though. Like "Once Microsoft has ABK games on Gamepass, they'll increase the price to $30 a month!", which is batshit crazy. I expect the first increase would be between $1-3 dollars in the normal tier, and $3-5 for the ultimate tier.

But there are also rumors of a $3 ad supported tier of Gamepass, as awful as that might be lol.

 

[SportsFan581]

Microsoft will just purchase the 27 member states of the European Union to get this deal pushed through.

If rumors are true, they already have that one. Better to spend the money buying off people on this CMA board.

 

[Varteras]

If rumors are true, they already have that one. Better to spend the money buying off people on this CMA board.

Don't fuck with the Brits. Even Americans respect those badasses.

 

[PaintTinJr]

Businesses completely have the right to operate in the jurisdictions of their choosing. LOL

The US, EU, and UK only have direct influence over companies that operate or import to their respective jurisdiction. This is why the US doesn't have the power to shutdown sweatshops in impoverished nations around the world etc.

Certainly, a business can choose to not operate within the UK. Many smaller online shops already did that when the UK changed their bookkeeping rules several years back, as it became too much trouble to handle sales records in the manner required for shops that had 4 or 5 sales to UK residents a year. Those shops simply quit offering services to UK residents.

It's a goofy scenario here, sure. But, still lets not act like every business has to operate everywhere under everyone else's rules. Some of the rules about women in the workplace would be quite problematic if Iran and similar jurisdictions had that kind of far reaching input. Plus, you'd quickly run into issues where the workplace laws of different nations contradicted each other, etc.

Is it an extremely unlikely, one could say preposterous scenario, sure. But, if MS wanted to pull out of the UK (or take the risk of having that decision made for them), it is possible for it to happen.

For another recent example, this is why it was easy for many companies to pull out of Russia. Russian law couldn't force them to stay.

We are specifically talking about Microsoft buying ATVI in this thread, which your "businesses" would completely exclude given their position as a multi-national company because they are so big they could potentially cause a Wall Street crash by doing something so stupid and having hedge funds selling their shares rapidly.

They would probably need written permission by a US president to attempt something this damaging without leading to the board all ending up in orange jump suits, so the point about "businesses" might be true, but has zero relevance to a company with Microsoft's globalized position.

 

[Varteras]

We are specifically talking about Microsoft buying ATVI in this thread, which your "businesses" would completely exclude given their position as a multi-national company because they are so big they could potentially cause a Wall Street crash by doing something so stupid and having hedge funds selling their shares rapidly.

They would probably need written permission by a US president to attempt something this damaging without leading to the board all ending up in orange jump suits, so the point about "businesses" might be true, but has zero relevance to a company with Microsoft's globalized position.

I really don't think any of these people advocating this could happen understand the absolute shitstorm Microsoft would find themselves in.

 

[graywolf323]

me reading the last few pages & catching up since I last checked this thread last night, I really hope the deal closes soon because some previously sensible posters are losing their minds over this

MS pulling out of the UK just to get Activision? stop reading Senjustu Sage’s erotic Microsoft fanboy fan fiction people

 

[Kilau]

MS leaving the UK is all but guaranteed at this point. Nintendo gets Rare back in that case. Sony can just take Playground & Ninja Theory.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

MS leaving the UK is all but guaranteed at this point. Nintendo gets Rare back in that case. Sony can just take Playground & Ninja Theory.

the funny thing is that the game has not even started.

 

[BeardGawd]

I doubt anyone truly thinks MS would leave the UK. It would just look too bad on MS even if they could technically do it.

Now could MS use their influence to torpedo the UK's plans to be the "next Silicon Valley"? Now that they could absolutely have some sway in and it wouldn't harm their place on the global stage. Kotik even hinted as much with his threat.

People in this thread hoping and praying tbe CMA blocks it because that's all they have left.

 

[feynoob]

Now could MS use their influence to torpedo the UK's plans to be the "next Silicon Valley"? Now that they could absolutely have some sway in and it wouldn't harm their place on the global stage. Kotik even hinted as much with his threat.

CMA after hearing this threat

 

[Varteras]

I doubt anyone truly thinks MS would leave the UK. It would just look too bad on MS even if they could technically do it.

Now could MS use their influence to torpedo the UK's plans to be the "next Silicon Valley"? Now that they could absolutely have some sway in and it wouldn't harm their place on the global stage. Kotik even hinted as much with his threat.

People in this thread hoping and praying tbe CMA blocks it because that's all they have left.

From what I hear, Kotick making death threats isn't new and one reason why he's in a mess to begin with.

 

[Varteras]

CMA after hearing this threat

And then just like the late, great John Candy, they make a mockery of them.

 

[wolffy71]

You guys are seriously underestimating politicians concerns over MS exiting the UK. It would cost them so much money that it's almost unfathomable that they would ever do it.

Upend countless businesses for video games? It really wouldn't make sense.

On the MS side It comes down to, would MS lose more money from exiting the market or the $3B from the deal.

Then MS has to ask themselves if the UK really has the stomach to incur the cost It would take to stop MS doing biz there. Supposedly MS "only" makes under $150m yearly in the UK. It would take years and years of $150m to make up losing $3B.

If the UK market is the only obstacle, its realistic that MS rolls the dice on the UK's stomach for the deal.

If you don't think MS is concerned about 3 BILLION dollars I think your seriously fooling yourselves.

My only question is what kind of PR problem doing that would cause MS.

 

[Mr.Phoenix]

I don't think so. Microsoft have released pretty much everything bedsides Minecraft on Steam at this point.

at this point...

 

[feynoob]

And then just like the late, great John Candy, they make a mockery of them.

Its like a soap opera from the three stooges.

 

[fred420170]

Are you serious?


Some wild takes in this thread

No, I was actually joking, just checking the temp of the room which I have confirmed is INSANE! LOL

 

[drganon]

I doubt anyone truly thinks MS would leave the UK. It would just look too bad on MS even if they could technically do it.

Now could MS use their influence to torpedo the UK's plans to be the "next Silicon Valley"? Now that they could absolutely have some sway in and it wouldn't harm their place on the global stage. Kotik even hinted as much with his threat.

People in this thread hoping and praying tbe CMA blocks it because that's all they have left.

 

[BeardGawd]

 

[HoofHearted]

What the hell?

I go away for a few days to upgrade my rig and come back to MS executing a mass exodus from UK because of a video game?

For Fuck's Sake - what are people smoking in here? And more importantly - pass it to me ...

 

[Ozriel]

I didn't even think I said something crazy. You don't expect gamepass's price to increase? Like ever?

Never said the price can’t or won’t increase. No issue with a price increase if the value increases significantly in comparison.
Just saying I think they’ll first start by limiting cheap trials.

 

[Ozriel]

Nope, it would be on the Xbox App on PC instead.

Lol, what year is this?

 

[SportsFan581]

Don't fuck with the Brits. Even Americans respect those badasses.

MS leaving the UK is all but guaranteed at this point. Nintendo gets Rare back in that case. Sony can just take Playground & Ninja Theory.

That's the craziest part of it. Seeing that MS has studios that are incorporated there. And FH is a favorite of mine too.

@ PaintTinJr potential failures of fiduciary duties would be an issue in a crash and burn, no question. With that said though, it isn't like the UK didn't lose some fortune 500s after Brexit, I think you overestimate the UKs position as all powerful czars of the business world.

I just watched the recent Brad Sams videos, I really don't even see where he ever eluded to this. That poster was just trying to set the thread on fire for no good reason.

 

[SportsFan581]

What the hell?

I go away for a few days to upgrade my rig and come back to MS executing a mass exodus from UK because of a video game?

For Fuck's Sake - what are people smoking in here? And more importantly - pass it to me ...

This is the new dose of crazy thread, it reminds me of the old tech speculation thread. I wonder if you guys will get this to 1000 pages by the end of April.

I typically don't even pay attention to this one because it is just like the same drivel over and over every few days, at least this is a novel new direction from what I've seen (though I saw a poster say this topic was a repeat as well).

 

[demigod]

What the hell?

I go away for a few days to upgrade my rig and come back to MS executing a mass exodus from UK because of a video game?

For Fuck's Sake - what are people smoking in here? And more importantly - pass it to me ...

That’s what happens when the fans are cult status.

 

[Yoboman]

So are MS going to disband Rare, Playground, Ninja Theory and Sledgehammer Games when they leave the UK market?

Will they just leave the EU and US if those markets are rejected too? Maybe just disband the entire company so they can publish COD exclusively on Xbox in Chile and Saudi Arabia

 

[Spitfire098]

me reading the last few pages & catching up since I last checked this thread last night, I really hope the deal closes soon because some previously sensible posters are losing their minds over this

MS pulling out of the UK just to get Activision? stop reading Senjustu Sage’s erotic Microsoft fanboy fan fiction people

You should be banned to the shadow realm for dare speaking of our hero Sage...

 

[bitbydeath]

People in this thread hoping and praying tbe CMA unblocks it because that's all they have left.

FTFY

 

[ManaByte]

So are MS going to disband Rare, Playground, Ninja Theory and Sledgehammer Games when they leave the UK market?

They can make the games there, just not sell them there. It's like Jack Daniels. The whiskey is made in a dry county.