POKEYCLYDE
Member
Like it or not, Bethesda is now a first party Xbox studio.
Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)
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demigod
Member
Tom clown warren wrong yet again.
Varteras
Gold Member
Now I think MS and ABK will likely extend their contract to August 29, considering it's not a very long time - just 5-6 weeks. Unless Bobby pulls a doozie and bails out (which would be hilarious).
It'd be even more hilarious if CMA, after taking these 5-6 extra weeks, just says:
I still believe a leaked sex tape between Phil Spencer and Judge Corley will be a better finale than this. #TeamSexTape.
One thing to keep in mind, the CMA didn't say they'd pass it. They're also not really guaranteeing that date. So to make any deadline set for the end of August would be risky. Especially if the CMA just says no after another investigation. That also begs the question of if other regulators now need to look at the new deal as well.
Dick Jones
Banned
Phil Spencer said he would swear an oath to it, but that doesn't make his comment in court an oath to be held to.
ShaiKhulud1989
Gold Member
So, as I said, CMA was always the main hurdle.
Alex Scott
Member
It is not a new deal. It is an offer from MS to appease whatever the concern was in the Final Report.
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Topher
Identifies as young
I don't really know the legal implications, if any. It makes him and Microsoft liars and frauds though, and on a pretty big stage.
PaintTinJr
Member
GHG from stock market info (and HeisenbergFX4 from insider info) says the deal is definitely closing, so Activision divestment still sounds like the most likely IMO.Now I think MS and ABK will likely extend their contract to August 29, considering it's not a very long time - just 5-6 weeks. Unless Bobby pulls a doozie and bails out (which would be hilarious).
It'd be even more hilarious if CMA, after taking these 5-6 extra weeks, just says:
I still believe a leaked sex tape between Phil Spencer and Judge Corley will be a better finale than this. #TeamSexTape.
In sex-tape world, I thinking leaked recordings of Gate's meetings with Epstein would be more likely to halt the merger, given Gates still has major voting rights as a founder and is one of the biggest stock holders
Chukhopops
Member
The flaw in this reasoning is that game sales is 22% of ABK revenue while in-game revenue is 78%. ABK could make console COD entirely free-to play and still turn a large profit based on 2022 numbers (and that's assuming there wouldn't be more people playing it if it was F2P).
In-game revenue is not linearly connected to game sales since a lot of the ABK catalog is free to play already. When their game sales drop by 29% between 2021 and 2022, their in-game revenue only drops by 9%.
So it's not like the game will somehow no longer make a ton of money if it gets integrated in the subscription plan of two platforms.
Topher
Identifies as young
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Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
No, it has to be a restructured deal. Because once the final report has been published, the CMA cannot entertain new offers by parties.
Because the answer is obvious?
The block stays until a new decision is reached about the new restructured deal proposal? A decision which can still be not in Microsoft's favour.
//DEVIL//
Member
feynoob
Banned
From months away (4 months), to August?
Yeah, this shit is closing down soon.
The CMA is shorting those days as time goes on.
Dick Jones
Banned
All MS need to do is prove the wording itself did not create an oath. It's not MS' fault the judge didn't know the difference, even worse the judge had no excuse being in her position.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Indeed. Still implying things that are incorrect.
"The CMA aims to resolve asap" implies as if they want to resolve the situation as soon as possible and pass the acquisition. Completely ignoring the fact that the CMA did not accommodate Microsoft by putting this date ahead of the July 18 threshold.
As you said, what an idiot.
woahwoahwoah
Neo Member
I'm wondering if the CMA just used Microsoft's new proposal as an excuse to delay the CAT hearings to September like they originally wanted
Would be pretty funny
Would be pretty funny
jm89
Member
Obviously none us know how things will play out with the CMA, but personally i think the xcloud divestment if true is weak.
What is for certain is though if CMA do block it again, MS have basically gifted them the time they wanted to prepare there newly onboarded lawyer for the appeal defense.
IMO CMA could kill the deal by blocking it again without any appeal, i don't see MS and ABK wanting to continue fighting this anymore after a second block. With further extension needed and marketing deals expiring.
What is for certain is though if CMA do block it again, MS have basically gifted them the time they wanted to prepare there newly onboarded lawyer for the appeal defense.
IMO CMA could kill the deal by blocking it again without any appeal, i don't see MS and ABK wanting to continue fighting this anymore after a second block. With further extension needed and marketing deals expiring.
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Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Less than 1% chance of that happening now.
I'd really like Microsoft to try that. They'll have to kiss ABK goodbye if they attempt anything like this.
ShaiKhulud1989
Gold Member
He's trying to bend clear words from the screenshot, my god.
feynoob
Banned
The main concern is that MS controls the cloud options for those games.MS selling the rights to a completely separate legal entity still raises many questions.
- Are these licensing rights sold in perpetuity?
- Are there any agreements to ensure versions of games are created for multi-cloud solutions?
- Are vendors free to use translation players on PC builds to deliver without Windows?
Will Windows licenses be regulated ongoing if not?
- Does it inhibit MS using Windows cloud licenses to manipulate the cloud gaming market? (Like they did by giving Nvidia 'sweetener' Windows licensing deal to sign the cloud agreement)
To me this fudge seems like it raises some of the main issues with MS' stranglehold on cloud and operating systems that are fundamental issues with the deal. The CMA would be them having to constantly monitor that fair play was occurring, which wouldn't be necessary with an independent ABK
By selling the rights, they won't be able to use them like they will with their games.
Essentially, it means same thing as before the purchase.
MS will have to pay that entity for cloud usage, just like everyone.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
They definitely did.
And also gave FTC more time to get everything in order and initiate their August hearing.
Topher
Identifies as young
And then MS will have more legal issues to resolve in the UK. MS may not care and do it anyway, I guess.
PaintTinJr
Member
I'm guessing that extensions aren't really a device the CMA is supposed to use, and although 6weeks sounds tiny for giving proper time for further public consultation. I suspect further public consultation will result in that time line slipping backwards, and more extensions required to not be accused of "failing to discharge their duty" by ignoring new evidence that has come to light that proves the console SLC by intention and by financial means.
feynoob
Banned
They won't.
The chances is higher now with CMA willing to talk.
I could have agreed with you before, but after these changes, something is happening.
Hopefully Monday gets here faster.
TrueGrime
Member
They are 100% stalling. If they were sticking to their original guns they could've just let this go to the CAT, stick their fingers in their ears, and stand firm. This deal is closing. It's just a matter of when now.
Topher
Identifies as young
They have no choice but to consider a new proposed deal. This was stated a couple of days ago by the former lawyer of the CMA.
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Astray
Member
Alex Scott
Member
There was this in the final report (the bold part):
What do you think final undertakings means then?
Bojanglez
The Amiga Brotherhood
Not really because in the absence of a deal ABK could be inclined to make a deal with Amazon, Google/Youtube (or whoever) to produce let's say a Linux version of games for their streaming solution, in order to avoid Windows licensing and perhaps leverage platform specific tech.
If it is just a licensing deal MS still hold all the cards, they make the game and would not be inclined to make a version for anything other than Windows PC for the cloud. They could then also 'pick winners' in that sense as they could provide more favourable Windows cloud licensing terms for certain providers (puppets).
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Gudji
Member
They wanted to delay the CAT in the first place and got denied and they still managed to acomplish that in other ways. This is nothing new the ex-CMA Legal Director said that like two days ago on bloomberg, deal is blocked as of now but who knows shit as been crazy lately so MS might go ahead anyway and say "fuck you" to the CMA.
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woahwoahwoah
Neo Member
We'll see if the CMA lifts the global ban today, if they do then the deal is closing over the weekend and this ride can finally come to an end
If not then I guess MS could try to close over the CMA, which would be maximum entertainment so I'm hoping for that one
If not then I guess MS could try to close over the CMA, which would be maximum entertainment so I'm hoping for that one
zapper
Member
I hope they keep their word
Varteras
Gold Member
Correct. Which will be an administrative court hearing. It's the FTC's own court. Which they pretty much always win. Then MS would have to appeal to a higher court. Giving the FTC more time to come up with a better plan than they clearly had. I doubt that it will change anything but they already had one hearing that showed them what didn't work and what seemed to hold more weight.
Gudji
Member
feynoob
Banned
ABK doesn't want to do cloud deals.
ShaiKhulud1989
Gold Member
They have already said they won't change the final report. It stands as it is until the new investigation is over. So, no, it is still blocked by CMA.
Varteras
Gold Member
They can't accept remedies at this point. The deal must be restructured so that the CMA must investigate it again. The final order would be that no remedies OR restructures will suffice anymore. They are essentially giving MS and ABK an ultimatum. Restructure and convince us or we fully forbid it.
CMA is only responsible for the UK. There's not a global ban from them.
And they can't lift anything before they reach a new decision through an other probe on a new deal proposal.
It's not a handshake in private, that's illegal.
Either Microsoft tries to go over them which I don't know how much sense makes when they're trying at the same time to collaborate with them or they'll need a small extension (less than 2 months) to see how it goes.
Let's also see if the appeal court in the US is able to give a feedback in time to the FTC about extending the current TRO in the US.
woahwoahwoah
Neo Member
They have a global ban in place from the Interim Order
zapper
Member
so, that being the case, shall we wait for today and see if the ninth circuit court puts the acquisition on hold?
summarizing what can happen:
- the court expresses itself and denies the request of the ftc
- the court does not express itself in time
in these two cases ms can finalize the acquisition in the usa, extend the contract and we will have to see what happens in august in the case of the ftc and with the cma, but it will probably close well
Or it could happen that:
- the court expresses its opinion today and agrees with the ftc, in which case the deal sinks..?
summarizing what can happen:
- the court expresses itself and denies the request of the ftc
- the court does not express itself in time
in these two cases ms can finalize the acquisition in the usa, extend the contract and we will have to see what happens in august in the case of the ftc and with the cma, but it will probably close well
Or it could happen that:
- the court expresses its opinion today and agrees with the ftc, in which case the deal sinks..?
You mean the order they can't invest in Activision in any way?
I thought that was only UK related, if that thing is valid and it's global and can't be withdrawn without a new official decision coming from a regular probe then that means Microsoft can't close anyway next week.
Bojanglez
The Amiga Brotherhood
ABK likes money. In the absence of this deal I'm sure in due time they would have. If the cloud is as inevitable as Judge Corley stated, then they would have had to at some point.
But regardless, neither did MS really, but regulative scrutiny has forced their hand somewhat into creating these flimsy deals, which the CMA said were not adequate and that structural remedies were needed. All I'm saying is that setting up a company to control the licensing of ABK games for the cloud, doesn't in any way reduce the leverage MS will have over that entity or companies wanting to do deals with that entity, they will still be gatekeepers.
Varteras
Gold Member
They are not even allowed to invest in each other by proxy without written consent from the CMA.
ToadMan
Member
Makes no sense,but if that's what they are calling it then CMA just flat-out caved. Dat "political pressure" @Riky talked about.
And so this is why MS wasn't worried about CMA any longer as @HeisenbergFX4 said. They already agreed on this prior to the FTC ruling. CMA has been lying the whole time about this possibly leading to a new investigation, if this happens.
New info....CMA hasn't agreed to anything.
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I thought that applied only to the UK.
If it's global and it cannot be reversed until a new verdict coming from a new probe on a restructured deal proposal I don't know what we have been discussing about for the last 100 pages. They cannot close next week unless they violate laws and they're ready for fines and other legal battles.
I'm still not sure how this is compatible with the approach of collaboration Microsoft is trying to have with the CMA.
But at this point I think I'll just see how things unfold. Too many twists, missing pieces and also misinformation.
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