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[Heisenberg007]

No way in hell this drags out any longer than a few weeks .. they are gonna get this done before the first termination fee increase. If anything this is probably theatrics to benefit the CMA's change of heart and allow them to slow down the process a little so it doesn't seem so rush. In the end it will probably go through at the original price or close to it. Everyone is on board at this point.

Yeah, same. This is more of a "pretend period" because the CMA seems to already have made up its mind.

Unless ... the CMA, after the recent grilling by CAT, gets worried about potential cases against themselves and decides to block it to protect themselves. (O-_o)

 

[GHG]

 

[DeepEnigma]

Former big tech lobbyist too (Amazon, Apple and Microsoft iirc).

She also lobbied on behalf of this transaction as well:

https://news.microsoft.com/wp-content/uploads/prod/sites/642/2022/12/Principles-for-platform-mergers-with-an-application-to-Microsoft-Activision.pdf

For more info

EU defends appointment of US economist in top job despite backlash

The European Commission on Friday defended its decision to appoint a US professor with links to Big Tech as the chief economist of its key competition department despite opposition from lawmakers and the French government. #EuropeNews

www.euronews.com

 

[Varteras]

I GET THE SOAP

See now I'm nervous. You've done this before. Getting performance anxiety.

 

[feynoob]

I tried. Thread almost bit my hand.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

MS would have found a way to push through over the CMA though if they refused to play ball and it was just the CMA alone left.

Sure Jan

Where's the receipts for this? MS gonna play hardball going against an entire country?

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

Anyone know how to get out of this jail?

wank to oblivion.

 

[Topher]

They wouldn't even have to go for the PI. They were going to just set any review after the deadline to stall out the deal.

So why did the FTC go for the PI? Because they were convinced MS would try to close over the CMA. Why did the CMA suddenly change their mind? Maybe they were also convinced that MS was going to close, and quickly saw the benefits of the carrot were better than the stick approach.

So many of you guys are so sure that was impossible, and I think you're all wrong and it doesn't matter how many laugh emojis you spam. You guys really think FTC just got "tricked" and then CMA did a reversal for zero reason? I will spell it out as plainly as I can. MS cannot close over the FTC in their biggest market. If the PI was granted, it was over. MS would have found a way to push through over the CMA though if they refused to play ball and it was just the CMA alone left. CMA saw this and made the correct call to preserve the UK's authority and business environment and worked out cloud remedies instead. CMA could have done that from the very start and avoided all this but they were being just as dishonest as the FTC's stalling bullshit.

Everything Brad Smith said publicly turned out to be true. He didn't start talking about aggressive actions to subvert the CMA publicly for just "smoke." The FTC didn't shoot themselves in the foot and then the CMA reverse themselves inexplicably for "smoke."

Personally, I put those who said anything about this is "impossible" and those who say MS would somehow continue with an illegal merger in the UK in the same bucket.
Entirely unrealistic.

 

[Godot25]

No that's not what the CAT judge said at all. He was massively concerned that the process of what the CMA accept would get further feedback from "all" concerned parties, and he even floated the issue of 3rd parties challenging the CMA's new deal. You also must have missed the part where he insisted that Microsoft put in writing why Sony had a change of heart, as he was very concerned the FTC result having optics of causing the CMA to change, then leveraged Sony.

If the judge sees that Sony were leverage by the Microsoft through the CMA, the judge isn't going to deny Sony, or Google for that matter the opportunity to challenge the CMA, as he kept talking about a new merger agreement and a new phase 1.

Even if Microsoft have a NDA on Sony about the deal, the judge will happily quash that in the UK to get to the truth of what happened, given jim's public statements about the deal and how rubbish the deal he has signed, compared to the status quo - absent the merger.

Good luck with that...
...because currently, based on market sentiment and all available info it is pretty much given that deal will be completed. Either by CMA and Microsoft coming to conclusion in cloud market or by Microsoft carving UK Activision thanks to new provision in merger agreement.

As I currently see it, it will be over in august.

 

[GHG]

 

[Sanepar]

But it is already done, so they were smart and what can change now?

 

[GHG]

But it is already done, so they were smart and what can change now?

They (the FTC) can still move forward with their investigation that was scheduled to start on August 2nd if they wish, but I find that to be highly unlikely now given the events that took place over the last few weeks.

 

[splattered]

But it is already done, so they were smart and what can change now?

Nothing, but people are going to continue to whine about it for a while to try and stay relevant on the topic.

 

[Darsxx82]

He is comparing apples to oranges.

If there was consensus on anything, it is that a ruling against MS in the USA would clearly have spelled the end.

Having the US and UK against the acquisition at the same time would have meant the end and, of course, Activision would not have had the same willingness to extend the agreement. In fact, if today it has been extended it is simply because Judge Corley denied the IP and the CMA (surely influenced by that decision) is in a position to accept the agreement.

 

[adamsapple]

Again, thank you to the FTC for rushing things along. The process was going to August anyway before they 'rushed' it.

 

[Elios83]

No that's not what the CAT judge said at all. He was massively concerned that the process of what the CMA accept would get further feedback from "all" concerned parties, and he even floated the issue of 3rd parties challenging the CMA's new deal. You also must have missed the part where he insisted that Microsoft put in writing why Sony had a change of heart, as he was very concerned the FTC result having optics of causing the CMA to change, then leveraged Sony.

If the judge sees that Sony were leverage by the Microsoft through the CMA, the judge isn't going to deny Sony, or Google for that matter the opportunity to challenge the CMA, as he kept talking about a new merger agreement and a new phase 1.

Even if Microsoft have a NDA on Sony about the deal, the judge will happily quash that in the UK to get to the truth of what happened, given jim's public statements about the deal and how rubbish the deal he has signed, compared to the status quo - absent the merger.

CAT is a double edged sword and things can move pretty quickly and in Microsoft's favour if the CAT's judge receives enough evidence from the CMA that their previous decision cannot be sustained because Microsoft has agreed to divest things in the UK so a decision based on refusing behavioural remedies has no sense anymore.
The judge stated pretty clearly he doesn't want to lose time over useless appeals.

 

[Topher]

But the date giving Activision the option to terminate still mattered. FTC losing the PI was the first domino to fall. If they had won and the deal was facing a battle on two fronts then ABK taking the money and running would have been much more likely.

 

[gothmog]

But it is already done, so they were smart and what can change now?

Nothing is done except the PI. Why do you think all of those I'm sure not bought by Microsoft House members were asking the FTC to stop after they lost?

 

[Lupin25]

I was busy playing Rogue Legacy 2 Haven't caught up yet.

What are the "concessions" you're referring to?

Really, is it that good compared RL1 lol?

I'm not so sure just yet. If it's simply the Cloud aspect, divestiture as some have mentioned is an option, but an additional 2-month PI could allude to anything.

 

[Thirty7ven]

No you see, FTC is the one that was trying to trick everybody. Trust me bro

 

[GHG]

Nothing is done except the PI. Why do you think all of those I'm sure not bought by Microsoft House members were asking the FTC to stop after they lost?

22 congress members on their knees begging her to drop it.

She's already enemy of the state regardless, so if I'm her I dig my heels in. Let them send the hits.

 

[93xfan]

Haven't been following. So how long until Microsoft can officially announce Tony Hawk or Crash Bandicoot as their new mascot?

 

[adamsapple]

Haven't been following. So how long until Microsoft can officially announce Tony Hawk or Crash Bandicoot as their new mascot?

Probably soon after the deal formally closes, which all goes well should be before Aug 29th.

 

[Topher]

Haven't been following. So how long until Microsoft can officially announce Tony Hawk or Crash Bandicoot as their new mascot?

 

[FoxMcChief]

Haven't been following. So how long until Microsoft can officially announce Tony Hawk or Crash Bandicoot as their new mascot?

My uncle at Nintendo said it should close in a few weeks.

 

[GHG]

Haven't been following. So how long until Microsoft can officially announce Tony Hawk or Crash Bandicoot as their new mascot?

 

[Thirty7ven]

He is comparing apples to oranges.

If there was consensus on anything, it is that a ruling against MS in the USA would clearly have spelled the end.

Having the US and UK against the acquisition at the same time would have meant the end and, of course, Activision would not have had the same willingness to extend the agreement. In fact, if today it has been extended it is simply because Judge Corley denied the IP and the CMA (surely influenced by that decision) is in a position to accept the agreement.

But the court wasn't tasked with ruling for or against the deal. And she denied the PI because an airplane when it lands IS A CAR

 

[aliadiere25]

He wants his games everywhere, yet he was adamant about future Bethesda games being Game Pass only. And the only reason why he's doing a COD deal with PlayStation is because of the big money it'll bring in.

You can't trust a word this guy says.

 

[NickFire]

I don't get it. The lawyers in this room said they can just make the deal happen now and break the law.

If someone is pulling rank and claiming they know what will happen because of specialized knowledge, then let them here it when they are wrong. But stay mindful of the difference between lawyers posting their streams of thoughts about gaming with like minded gamers, and lawyers using professional skills to actually review pleadings, applicable law, and forming legal opinions. If people start holding lawyers to some gotcha standard for posting among friends, this place will lose good posters.

 

[Godot25]

Yeah. This guy was for sure "right" about FTC trial from beginning.
He even recently claimed that Microsoft is already foreclosing competition because Call of Duty games are on sale on Xbox Store

He is just Lina Khan "big tech bad" breed. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

[Thirty7ven]

But the date giving Activision the option to terminate still mattered. FTC losing the PI was the first domino to fall. If they had won and the deal was facing a battle on two fronts then ABK taking the money and running would have been much more likely.

So it's right for the judge to consider the probability of a probability in favor of the deal falling apart if the PI was granted on the back of a supposed deadline that apparently was flexible, but it wasn't right for the judge to consider the probability of a probability that the acquisition might be anti competitive on grounds that everybody has a gaming pc?

This is hilarious.

 

[Godot25]

No you see, FTC is the one that was trying to trick everybody. Trust me bro

FTC had 6 months to ask for PI. Guess why they chose to do that few weeks before expiration of merger agreement

 

[feynoob]

wank to oblivion.

I am Skyrim guy

 

[DrFigs]

I guess I'm lost as to why the CMA would change its mind like this. Is their work really that shoddy that they can't stand by their own decisions? Blocking it over cloud was weird.. but it was THEIR decision. So it's confusing about the competency of regulators imo.

 

[feynoob]

They (the FTC) can still move forward with their investigation that was scheduled to start on August 2nd if they wish, but I find that to be highly unlikely now given the events that took place over the last few weeks.

Not to mention, they will be pressured to approve the deal.
FTC lost their case with that BI.

 

[kvltus lvlzvs]

Former big tech lobbyist too (Amazon, Apple and Microsoft iirc).

She also lobbied on behalf of this transaction as well:

https://news.microsoft.com/wp-content/uploads/prod/sites/642/2022/12/Principles-for-platform-mergers-with-an-application-to-Microsoft-Activision.pdf

For more info

EU defends appointment of US economist in top job despite backlash

The European Commission on Friday defended its decision to appoint a US professor with links to Big Tech as the chief economist of its key competition department despite opposition from lawmakers and the French government. #EuropeNews

www.euronews.com

Its almost like a statue of the myth "the rape of europa" in front of the EU HQ was telling us something...

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

No doubt FTC got played like a fiddle in all this

MS lawyers deserve all the megabucks money they are getting paid because they managed to completely change the course of this case with a friggin injunction ruling

Comical how incompetent and powerless regulators are to these gigacorps

 

[FoxMcChief]

I am Skyrim guy

Like warm sweet roll

 

[feynoob]

This guy has a hate boner for MS.
Bless his heart. Hope he wins his battle.

 

[Thirty7ven]

FTC had 6 months to ask for PI. Guess why they chose to do that few weeks before expiration of merger agreement

So private companies can exploit the loopholes in the law to stonewall government regulation, but regulators are held to an higher standard than the law itself?

 

[Topher]

So it's right for the judge to consider the probability of a probability in favor of the deal falling apart if the PI was granted on the back of a supposed deadline that apparently was flexible, but it wasn't right for the judge to consider the probability of a probability that the acquisition might be anti competitive on grounds that everybody has a gaming pc?

This is hilarious.

I'm not saying what is "right" or not about anything. I'm just pointing out the significance of the date at that point of time.

 

[Darsxx82]

But the court wasn't tasked with ruling for or against the deal. And she denied the PI because an airplane when it lands IS A CAR

The fact is that Judge Corley did not deny the IP for the reason that the deadline (July 18) might end the agreement.... She did, whether you agree or not, for many other reasons. The work of the FTC lawyers was embarrassing.

 

[DrFigs]

There was like a brief period of time where people from both parties pretended to care about big tech. But yeah that was a lie, and when it comes to protecting Microsoft, they stepped up. Matt Stoller is just fighting the good fight.

 

[feynoob]

No doubt FTC got played like a fiddle in all this

MS lawyers deserve all the megabucks money they are getting paid because they managed to completely change the course of this case with a friggin injunction ruling

Comical how incompetent and powerless regulators are to these gigacorps

Regulators aren't the problem, it's their bosses.
Those politicians crave power and money. They are the reason why regulators don't have enough power

 

[Jigsaah]

A 3 month extension? And another 6 billion? Is it likely to close before October? Cuz if not I'm tuning out again.

 

[feynoob]

The Tourmaline Gorilla

 

[splattered]

I guess I'm lost as to why the CMA would change its mind like this. Is their work really that shoddy that they can't stand by their own decisions? Blocking it over cloud was weird.. but it was THEIR decision. So it's confusing about the competency of regulators imo.

I kind of wonder if both FTC and CMA were somewhat lost on this case because they don't know the gaming industry... so they colluded deciding one would take console angle and the other take the cloud angle that way they both had something specific to focus on. Once CMA saw FTC get flattened in court they were probably worried about being dragged through the mud by Microsoft high power lawyers so backed down? I mean FTC couldn't make the console angle work which should have been easier... cloud angle is a big "what if" scenario. Who knows?

 

[DeepEnigma]

Well, there were those of us who were right that they would have to sweeten the pot in order to get shareholders to agree on an extension. And they were not going to thumb their noses at UK regulation and law.

 

[Clear]

Regarding Kotick's ego, let's not forget we now know he managed to bend MS over and get them agree to a reduced revenue share of 20% for CoD. That's crazy BDE!

Partners dictating terms to MS has to be a pretty rare thing, but apparently it happens with Bobby K in the room.

Also if they got strongarmed by this, why would anyone think they are just going to steamroll over the UK government?

I think people need to understand that what's said on Twitter and behind closed doors are two different things. In simple terms I can well see MS trying to use political contacts to leverage the CMA, but I'd think it way more likely they'd be ahem, "incentivizing" them to change their stance than trying to bully them into submission.

 

[Topher]

The Tourmaline Gorilla