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[Felessan]

Instant classic, indeed…

Wiping out Forza Motorsport team (non-engine) and Tango was classic too
Obsidian is next in line

 

[Madserb2023]

The games industry doesn't run on GAAS, it runs on a handful of GAAS that completely dominate the market. That's why new GAAS games can't compete unless they are exceptional, unlike single player games. You can have 1000s of single player games but no more than a dozen GAAS games as they are played continuously. I look at that chart and think the opposite and instead the logic would be to make more single player games. That's like looking at fast food chains. No point competing against McDonald's and completely failing.

 

[Felessan]

The games industry doesn't run on GAAS, it runs on a handful of GAAS that completely dominate the market. That's why new GAAS games can't compete unless they are exceptional, unlike single player games. You can have 1000s of single player games but no more than a dozen GAAS games as they are played continuously. I look at that chart and think the opposite and instead the logic would be to make more single player games. That's like looking at fast food chains. No point competing against McDonald's and completely failing.

Asia proved long ago that this is bullshit
You might not be McDonalds but smaller chains can have success via specialization

We have ZZZ, WuWa and Arknight threads all on the 1st page and those are not "10 years old games"

 

[Madserb2023]

Asia proved long ago that this is bullshit
You might not be McDonalds but smaller chains can have success via specialization

We have ZZZ, WuWa and Arknight threads all on the 1st page and those are not "10 years old games"

Exactly, smaller chains. That's not what Sony or anyone else is trying to do. They are trying to complete with the likes of Fortnight. You can't. Look at any market, you always have only a couple of big players. There aren't hundreds of operating systems for example. As soon as a GAAS game drops below a certain amount of players it just collapses. Because of the budgets they neea a large player base and just through maths not every game can. A single player game with a decent multiplayer mode doesn't need a minimum amount of players.

 

[Felessan]

Exactly, smaller chains. That's not what Sony or anyone else is trying to do. They are trying to complete with the likes of Fortnight.

They do not
Look at Sony games - GT, HD2 Marathon, Horizon - they are smaller and more niche. And Highguard for sure didn't go to compete with Fortnite - it's quality just scream of a low AA project, they wanted to carve a bit of niche for themselves, same as HD2 or Ark did, though in different budget bracket.
Compare it to Asia where number of games baring fangs at Mihoyo are not small and some of them are quite successfully grab not a niche but rather part of market pie for themselves.

You can't. Look at any market, you always have only a couple of big players.

There are like tens of biggest gacha games and hundreds of smaller one.
Look at cars - there are some big players, but there quite a big average to small players and industry are quite lively

There aren't hundreds of operating systems for example. As soon as a GAAS game drops below a certain amount of players it just collapses. Because of the budgets they neea a large player base and just through maths not every game can. A single player game with a decent multiplayer mode doesn't need a minimum amount of players.

A single player game with multiplayer does need a minimum amount of sales or studio will go down just as fast as gaas one do.
And as I said above - its somewhat easier for AA gaas to survive compared to AA single player game as a number of players former need is really small if you have suitable monetization. You can check mobile gaas games - there are hundreds of them alive.
If you have whales to sponsor your game - it'll be alive as long as those whales present. For SP games you need a constant flow of new players and acquiring is harder than retention.

For your understanding - global mobile market is ~105bn and Fortnite and Mihoyo, biggest players in West and Asia respectively, holds around 3% each. The rest 94% of market split between innumerous number of smaller titles, practically all of them are gaas (non-gaas market on mobiles is immaterial)

 

[Sohurmk833]

The Asia comparison is completely nonsensical as these games run on a shoestring budget and are tied to a very specific market. The average western GaaS slop costs in the hundreds of millions and needs a massive audience that will never materialize.

 

[Guilty_AI]

There are like tens of biggest gacha games and hundreds of smaller one.

Sooo, like single player. And so, like single player, there is no guarantee going gaas will make you enough money. Soooo, no advantage whatsoever in pursuing gaas instead of a traditional sp game.

And as I said above - its somewhat easier for AA gaas to survive compared to AA single player game as a number of players former need is really small if you have suitable monetization.

Quite the opposite, you can have something like Tokyo Xtreme Racer being considered a massive success with only something like 5 million in revenue, or many Atlus games. They don't need player retention to begin with, unlike gaas. So much so many AA Gaas like Deep Rock Galatic are actually much more similar to traditional games than the typical MP GAAS, some being straight up single player like Euro/america truck simulator, not even demanding internet connection to operate. They're basically normal games that get a expansion or update every now and then, monetized or not.

What the Asia market has proved has nothing to do with gaas but with talent retention and proper budget management. Its the same for any type of game.

 

[FMN]

It's because GaaS fits better into people's busy lives.

Log on, do a couple of daily's, log off.

No commitment

That is like dictionary definition of a commitment.

 

[PeteBull]

 

[Felessan]

Sooo, like single player. And so, like single player, there is no guarantee going gaas will make you enough money. Soooo, no advantage whatsoever in pursuing gaas instead of a traditional sp game.

There are more people and money in gaas part of the market. And more importantly - gaas part is expanding and SP part is shrinking. And people, unless they are very principal, wants to be on winning side

Quite the opposite, you can have something like Tokyo Xtreme Racer being considered a massive success with only something like 5 million in revenue, or many Atlus games.

And small mobile title can live off 100k revenue. Even likes of F11 now earns less than 5mio per year and continue to operate.

They don't need player retention to begin with, unlike gaas. So much so many AA Gaas like Deep Rock Galatic are actually much more similar to traditional games than the typical MP GAAS, some being straight up single player like Euro/america truck simulator, not even demanding internet connection to operate.

The difference is that gaas operate on recurring revenue basis and SP operates on upfront revenue basis. So gaas prioritize retention (though acquiring also important) while SP focus on acquiring. Failing to aquire sufficient initial sales, where people have to pay real money, unlike 90% of gaas games, is a huge risk. And as Steam shows thousands fail miserable at that, failing to even get back Steam placement cost (100$)

MP gaas only typical in console space as it's the oldest type and usually first ones to enter market. Non-console space crowded with coop, semi-SP or even straight SP-focused gaas games (most gachas are SP games maybe with some coop elements).
GaaS is a content delivery scheme "game as a service", it can be put to any type of game. It's like series instead of standalone film of traditional SP gaming.

What the Asia market has proved has nothing to do with gaas but with talent retention and proper budget management. Its the same for any type of game.

95% of Asia industry are gaas, to the point that those who wants to expand to SP for diversification find it difficult to find enough talents who are experienced and willing to work on SP games.
Except some exceptions for their name, like Nintendo, biggest gacha houses grab the best talents, especially young ones, as they have way more money and job prospects are way brighter.

 

[Guilty_AI]

There are more people and money in gaas part of the market. And more importantly - gaas part is expanding and SP part is shrinking. And people, unless they are very principal, wants to be on winning side

No there isn't and it isn't. This is like seeing mario kart sell a bajillion copies and thinking "kart games is where players are at!". Completely ignores context and the history many succesfull live service games have, typical shortsightness of the business bros.

The difference is that gaas operate on recur1rring revenue basis and SP operates on upfront revenue basis. So gaas prioritize retention (though acquiring also important) while SP focus on acquiring. Failing to aquire sufficient initial sales, where people have to pay real money, unlike 90% of gaas games, is a huge risk.

Its the exact same risk exist for both you know, by your own words. I dont know how you can admit acquiring players is important for gaas then immediatly contradict this without any further elaboration. Can't get players? Your live service is done for.

And as Steam shows thousands fail miserable at that, failing to even get back Steam placement cost (100$)

You realize the vast majority of these "failures" were barely an attempt to begin with right? Asset flips, copy-paste rpg maker games and so on. Even i published a game that i made in a week (not on steam tho), no shortage of people who think they can cobble together a game in a month and make a viable product.

MP gaas only typical in console space as it's the oldest type and usually first ones to enter market. Non-console space crowded with coop, semi-SP or even straight SP-focused gaas games (most gachas are SP games maybe with some coop elements).

What? There's CS, Dota2, LoL, Warthunder, the "non-console" space has plenty of MP games. I'm arriving at the conclusion you truly have no idea what you're even talking about.

 

[Sohurmk833]

There are more people and money in gaas part of the market.

90% of that money is concentrated on a dozen or so franchises.

 

[PeteBull]

90% of that money is concentrated on a dozen or so franchises.

90% is fortnite and gta5 online alone.
That leaves 10% for 2nd and 3rd tier succesfull games, think marvel rivals, helldivers 2 and such, basically nothing is left for modern audience gaas tho since women dont play those games xD

 

[Instant_Classic]

Instant classic, indeed…

GaaS is a gamble, High Guard wasn't on the winning side of that gamble.

Not every game succeeds, look how poorly big budgets efforts like Hellblade 2, South of Midnight, and Avowed.

Those development studios would have closed if Microsoft was not funding them.

High Guard didn't have unlimited Microsoft cash as a back up.

 

[Instant_Classic]

The games industry doesn't run on GAAS, it runs on a handful of GAAS that completely dominate the market. That's why new GAAS games can't compete unless they are exceptional, unlike single player games. You can have 1000s of single player games but no more than a dozen GAAS games as they are played continuously. I look at that chart and think the opposite and instead the logic would be to make more single player games. That's like looking at fast food chains. No point competing against McDonald's and completely failing.

Bruv, statistically around 90% of games released annual don't generate profit.

Single players aren't this bastion of hope you think they are.

Whether it's GaaS or Single Player your game has to be something special to stand out, otherwise it will go under the radar.

 

[PeteBull]

Bruv, statistically around 90% of games released annual don't generate profit.

Single players aren't this bastion of hope you think they are.

Whether it's GaaS or Single Player your game has to be something special to stand out, otherwise it will go under the radar.

Tell that to pubs who keep funding mediocre gaas left and right xD

 

[calico]

When hundreds of people work on ASS GaaS for years and it's dead in a week it's just like when one guy makes a game as a hobby in his spare time and releases it on Steam

 

[Felessan]

No there isn't and it isn't. This is like seeing mario kart sell a bajillion copies and thinking "kart games is where players are at!". Completely ignores context and the history many succesfull live service games have, typical shortsightness of the business bros.

And... There are start astroturfing
Gaas market is around 1bn People and ~90% of revenue.
SP market is 20% size and 10% revenue of that.
You are living in a bubble, completely ignoring trands of last 20 years

Its the exact same risk exist for both you know, by your own words. I dont know how you can admit acquiring players is important for gaas then immediatly contradict this without any further elaboration. Can't get players? Your live service is done for.

Do you understand what "More" and "Less" means?
Small gaas can get 100 whales donating 300$ each month and be fine with it. Small SP with 100 sales at 20$ will go under immediately.
Aquiring is disproportionately more important for SP as it's the only revenue stream for them. GaaS on other hand have recurring income so they can live on with much smaller playerbase.

You realize the vast majority of these "failures" were barely an attempt to begin with right? Asset flips, copy-paste rpg maker games and so on. Even i published a game that i made in a week (not on steam tho), no shortage of people who think they can cobble together a game in a month and make a viable product.

Quite some of them a genuine efforts
And it's not like gaas games doesn't have a whole layer of "quick cash grab" style of low effort low cost games that more often than not fails.
And big games and big teams fails all the time everywhere, as we told goodbuy to the second mightiest racing sim just recently

What? There's CS, Dota2, LoL, Warthunder, the "non-console" space has plenty of MP games. I'm arriving at the conclusion you truly have no idea what you're even talking about.

There is a console and adjusted market (mostly part of Steam) that is historically SP focused. And in it "GaaS" is mostly MP based as it's a troyan horse that appeal to experiences SP world somewhat lacking (even MP games are lacking comparatively). When GaaS as a model take hold, it start to spillover further, first onto coop and then even to single games.

Outside of this space, i.e. non-Steam PC gaming and mobile, there is a huge variety of GaaS games and you can't really say that "typical GaaS is MP", though MP GaaS of course also presents.

90% of that money is concentrated on a dozen or so franchises.

Do you have problem with math?
Top 2 is only 6% of that market
And falloff from first places to second is rather steep. CoD should be around half of Fortnite (before this year fiasco) and others even smaller. In Asia afaik the best ones is too just around half of Mihoyo games.
There are hundreds of gaas games. But the pie is way too big.

 

[Felessan]

90% is fortnite and gta5 online alone.
That leaves 10% for 2nd and 3rd tier succesfull games, think marvel rivals, helldivers 2 and such, basically nothing is left for modern audience gaas tho since women dont play those games xD

Fortnite is 9bn
Mobile alone, that is 99% gaas, is 105 billion
85% of PC (40bn) is GaaS
And ~40% of consoles (45bn)

Thats 156bn of total gaas market, out of which 9bn of Fortnite is just 6%

There is a reason why publishers trying, because market is big and there is a LOT of place there. If Fortnite was even 50% - nobody would go like no big one trying to overthrow GTA - it's hard to win on the same field against juggernaut of such size. But if you have 90% of space unoccupied, like there are lots of genres besides being GTA clone, it's an opportunity to get money for yourself.

 

[PeteBull]

Fortnite is 9bn
Mobile alone, that is 99% gaas, is 105 billion
85% of PC (40bn) is GaaS
And ~40% of consoles (45bn)

Thats 156bn of total gaas market, out of which 9bn of Fortnite is just 6%

There is a reason why publishers trying, because market is big and there is a LOT of place there. If Fortnite was even 50% - nobody would go like no big one trying to overthrow GTA - it's hard to win on the same field against juggernaut of such size. But if you have 90% of space unoccupied, like there are lots of genres besides being GTA clone, it's an opportunity to get money for yourself.

Who tf cares about mobile, bro? we complain about mobile shit here on hc gaming forum, we talking actual gaming, on gaming platforms like handheld/console/pc.

On top all those failed GAAS games are modern audience(aka for women) gaas, those almost always fall, and quickly.

No1 minds helldivers or gt7 or even gta5 online(as a proxy of gta5) having good numbers, those are games for guys.
We pointing out woke shit, be it highguard, concord, horizon gaas, and likely(altho not 100% confirmed yet) marathon.

By ur logic WoW is gaas too, but guess what, it was amazing and based af game, not anymore, nowadays its lead by literal woke grandma who complains game is called WARcraft coz it makes modern audience not comroftable...

Which stupid non gamer suit allowed this old feminist hag to decide what happens to WoW ffs? Ofc it will lose even more audience, u know what WoW was back in the day?

 

[Guilty_AI]

Do you understand what "More" and "Less" means?
Small gaas can get 100 whales donating 300$ each month and be fine with it.

See? This is why its hard to take anything you say seriously. Its very common knowledge that whales make up a very low percentage of a service game. For a small gaas to get 100 people religiously investing 300$ each month you need something like 50k to 100k active players (not simply people who buy or download the game, so you'd need prob half of to a million of those), and this is being generous.

This is clearly not easy to achieve, whereas a single player game who was appropriately budgeted and priced could be considered an astounding success with just that many buyers (buyers not active players logging in every month, which is always a fraction of the number of adopters). I've seen devs treating stuff like 100k sales long after release as huge milestones and declaration of success.

GAAS isn't this sure-fire no-brainer model you and other business-bros try to frame it as, and often require tons more investment to produce anything worthwhile as they need to attract thousands upon thousands of players just to catch a handful of whales that can sustain them.

People love citing how fortnite br was developed in 2-3 months, but forget Fortnite itself actually took 6 to 7 years to make, only its BR mode taking a few months to produce. It clearly wasn't some low cost investment and only became what they are today by pure luck, as they happened to decide adding an extra mode that was popular at the time to chase trends. If they stuck to the original vision they had for all its development, probably would've remained niche or closed down by now.

 

[Felessan]

Who tf cares about mobile, bro? we complain about mobile shit here on hc gaming forum, we talking actual gaming, on gaming platforms like handheld/console/pc.

Everyone caring about their future gaming should
A lot of stuff going on mobiles that later spillover to consoles/PC and if you want to understand what's going on, what trends are there and what it all imply for future of gaming in like 3-5-10 years, you should know what's going on on mobile side too.

On top all those failed GAAS games are modern audience(aka for women) gaas, those almost always fall, and quickly.

Tell it to Love and Deepspace that earns 1bn per year. Or Infinity Nikke for a game available on PC/Consoles
Every audience have their own games. And if games are good, they will be successfull

By ur logic WoW is gaas too, but guess what, it was amazing and based af game, not anymore, nowadays its lead by literal woke grandma who complains game is called WARcraft coz it makes modern audience not comroftable...

WoW is GaaS as is any MMO game. They were one of the first on the market with such model

Which stupid non gamer suit allowed this old feminist hag to decide what happens to WoW ffs? Ofc it will lose even more audience, u know what WoW was back in the day?

Put your anti-woke fight somewhere else, it has nothing to do with GaaS
GaaS is a service model, it's an independent choice from going woke - 99% of asian and 99% of smaller gaas titles ignore this shit as no one pay them for it and they care about their customers wishes as they are their life.
Even more - male targeting gaas titles very often use oversexualization of women (and female ones - oversexualization of men) as it's what their auditory likes

See? This is why its hard to take anything you say seriously. Its very common knowledge that whales make up a very low percentage of a service game. For a small gaas to get 100 people religiously investing 300$ each month you need something like 50k to 100k active players (not simply people who buy or download the game, so you'd need prob half of to a million of those), and this is being generous.

You are kinda far from real numbers, shows your expertise in field
Hyperwhales (1000+$) are 0.5% and whales (300+$) are 3-5%
And it's very dependant on game, smaller games have higher whale number compared to AAA like Genshin, as former are literally built around satisfying whales and all other players are just a supporting mob for them. This lead to high retention of whales and low retention of f2p players, making ratio of whales in active playerbase quite high.
And as games are free, it's actually significantly easier to make people try your game to hook them up. A reasonable good gameplay/story to keep at least some f2p players and good inequality gap to entice whales and your are done.

GAAS isn't this sure-fire no-brainer model you and other business-bros try to frame it as, and often require tons more investment to produce anything worthwhile as they need to attract thousands upon thousands of players just to catch a handful of whales that can sustain them.

Of course it isn't surefire no-brainer model. There is no such thing.
It require a lot of efforts, knowledge and experience/expertise to craft successfull GaaS. Same as crafting SP game.
It's just cost-benefit is better so it's slightly easier to achieve success/runaway success and people are enticed. People do like it when reaching goal is easier.

People love citing how fortnite br was developed in 2-3 months, but forget Fortnite itself actually took 6 to 7 years to make, only its BR mode taking a few months to produce. It clearly wasn't some low cost investment and only became what they are today by pure luck, as they happened to decided adding an extra mode that was popular at the time to chase trends. If they stuck to the original vision they had for all its development, probably would've remained niche or closed down by now.

And Mihoyo was second-tier gacha developer.
The stories of certain runaway successes are not really helpful, it's why I don't really like it when people point at Fortnite as if it's the only ever gaas game gained resemblance of success.
Yes Fortnite is big but it's not the whole market, there are close to 10 other successfull games in BR alone and there are more genres than just BR (Hero shooters, extraction, Moba etc, not to mention what Asia plays). That's relatively big ones, and small ones are innumerable. And if you look at all of them you'll see that some of them got there by luck, some of them had strong insights, relevant experience and backing. And a lot of them got there by hard work, by trying and growing up with experience gained.
Look at asian big - Tencent, Netease, Mihoyo, Hypergryph, CyGames, Nexon etc. They have decades of history in gaas, most started from a smaller games and each of them had their share of failures. But as they polish themselves, eventually they arrived to where they are, with GaaS portfolios with plenty of games earning them big.

 

[PeteBull]

Again- there is oldschool GAAS (think early/midlife WoW) and there woke modern audience slop GAAS, one was very succesfull for years, other flops constantly, its on publishers/suits to not perceive difference between them

 

[Sohurmk833]

LMAO

Absolutely nobody here gives a shit about mobile.

 

[Guilty_AI]

You are kinda far from real numbers, shows your expertise in field
Hyperwhales (1000+$) are 0.5% and whales (300+$) are 3-5%
And it's very dependant on game, smaller games have higher whale number compared to AAA like Genshin, as former are literally built around satisfying whales and all other players are just a supporting mob for them. This lead to high retention of whales and low retention of f2p players, making ratio of whales in active playerbase quite high.
And as games are free, it's actually significantly easier to make people try your game to hook them up.

You are using veeery optimistical numbers here. Its usually seem as <1-2% of players being whales and that from analysing popular games. Your assertion that smaller games have higher whale count cannot be backed up and, in fact, its observed that rather than higher whale percentage they have higher whale dependency. Even less people are willing to spend casually on those compared to a gta online or fortnite. Having a small loyal following also doesn't guarantee they are payers.

A reasonable good gameplay/story to keep at least some f2p players and good inequality gap to entice whales and your are done.

Then that inequality gap scares away new players and the old whales slowly leave or stop paying with no one new whales to replace them, since they've been all put off by said inequality gap.

When i said this wasn't a sure-fire model, i wasnt just talking about appealing visuals and good mechanics. The economics design of GAAS is a huge and hellish task on its own (that sp games dont need to worry about btw).

"Sell some powerful weapon that makes progressing through a new dungeon easier? Cool cool but what about next semester when theres another dungeon? Previous buyers wont buy anything new since they're already powerful. Oh, i know! Lets make that item useless in the new dungeon!"
"What? New players are getting confused by how the items work and leaving the game early? Who cares! Lets focus on our loyal whales!"
"What? Old players aren't buying our new items anymore because they think we'll just nerf them afterwards? No way! Those whale addicts can't be that smart! It must be those damn youtubers shittalking our games online!"

stuff like this is why some companies like focusing on cosmetics as those have a lot more of a social appeal.... but for that you need to be veeeery popular, enough for people to care about showing off or having anyone to show off to to begin with

 

[Felessan]

Then that inequality gap scares away new players and the old whales slowly leave or stop paying with no one new whales to replace them, since they've been all put off by said inequality gap.

No
Most PVE games follow treadmill route where new layer of content added on top and previous content gradually simplified. It serves 2 purposes - first you have to always pay to maintain gap, second - as there are only like 2-3 layers of actual content, it's easy to get in for both new f2p and whale players as you have to pay some reasonable amount to close gap with old players.
And PvP games are skins and you only can shows a few of them and new ones always more valuable as vanity item compared to old ones.

When i said this wasn't a sure-fire model, i wasnt just talking about appealing visuals and good mechanics. The economics design of GAAS is a huge and hellish task on its own (that sp games dont need to worry about btw).

Even though selling strategy is simplier in SP, it's still there - pricing and post-launch support strategy is as important in SP games.
And GaaS monetization strategy is actually quite well explored and metrics to look at and build whole monetization around is well known.

"Sell some powerful weapon that makes progressing through a new dungeon easier? Cool cool but what about next semester when theres another dungeon? Previous buyers wont buy anything new since they're already powerful. Oh, i know! Lets make that item useless in the new dungeon!"
"What? New players are getting confused by how the items work and leaving the game early? Who cares! Lets focus on our loyal whales!"
"What? Old players aren't buying our new items anymore because they think we'll just nerf them afterwards? No way! Those whale addicts can't be that smart! It must be those damn youtubers shittalking our games online!"

stuff like this is why some companies like focusing on cosmetics as those have a lot more of a social appeal.... but for that you need to be veeeery popular, enough for people to care about showing off or having anyone to show off to to begin with

Treadmill is here for good 20+ years, it ain't hard to do it as everyone knows and understands it.

Games goes for cosmetics for following reasons:
- they target competitive market and in that market fairness in gameplay is pivotal (when you do x2 damage in PvE not many cares, especially if that guy carry you, if someone do x2 in PvP most people will just leave the game). As a result it split genres by monetization model - BR, Moba, Hero shooters sticks with skins and gachas and MMO sticks with treadmill
- although rare, some games has structure not suitable for treadmill, making it hard to incorporate renewal cycle of gear. So they opt for what they can sell - game parts unlocks, but people kinda hate it, grind skips, but for this game should have insane grind and it's not very likable nowadays, or cosmetics
- some games just not confident that they are strong/different from others enough and use "cosmetics only" as their differential selling point

And no, you don't have to be big to sell cosmetics. In treadmill games it's actually smaller games that go that route and they milk their whales really hard.

 

[Guilty_AI]

No
Most PVE games follow treadmill route where new layer of content added on top and previous content gradually simplified. It serves 2 purposes - first you have to always pay to maintain gap, second - as there are only like 2-3 layers of actual content, it's easy to get in for both new f2p and whale players as you have to pay some reasonable amount to close gap with old players.
And PvP games are skins and you only can shows a few of them and new ones always more valuable as vanity item compared to old ones.

You make it sound so easy. Btw, that wasn't me saying it, that what devs told me directly. GAASconomics is far from this trivial task you're trying to make it sound like.

Treadmill is here for good 20+ years, it ain't hard to do it as everyone knows and understands it.

Games goes for cosmetics for following reasons:
- they target competitive market and in that market fairness in gameplay is pivotal (when you do x2 damage in PvE not many cares, especially if that guy carry you, if someone do x2 in PvP most people will just leave the game). As a result it split genres by monetization model - BR, Moba, Hero shooters sticks with skins and gachas and MMO sticks with treadmill
- although rare, some games has structure not suitable for treadmill, making it hard to incorporate renewal cycle of gear. So they opt for what they can sell - game parts unlocks, but people kinda hate it, grind skips, but for this game should have insane grind and it's not very likable nowadays, or cosmetics
- some games just not confident that they are strong/different from others enough and use "cosmetics only" as their differential selling point

I like how you're assuming people will just buy the cosmetics as long as they're there like good little whales. None of these explain how they'll actually sell it.

And no, you don't have to be big to sell cosmetics. In treadmill games it's actually smaller games that go that route and they milk their whales really hard.

...and there are two things that can sell cosmetics: Social pressure and goodwill.
>Social pressure does require your game to be big enough to have any impact on a social life,
>and goodwill requires a good relationship with your fans, but anyone who has been in the internet long enough can tell you how quickly that can sour when there's money involved, often for dumb reasons. Not to mention any closed community that goes on for long enough becomes toxic.

There is a third way, but that is very specific to the asian market and the reason gachas can make so much money.
>By exploiting individual isolacionism common in the culture there and selling cute anime girls with nice designs to lonely men. Basically a form of soft porn or an only-fans with virtual women.