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[Loomy]

Tell it Mihoyo
Just because some are incapable doesn't mean no one knows proper formulas

Waifu+gacha. Not taking away anything from Mihoyo, but that's something they do well that most other developers would be absolute shit at. I know this because no one else has been remotely as successful as them at it.

 

[Punished Miku]

Educated guess at best.

 

[StueyDuck]

absolutely, just do what men_in_boxes does and say every live service game will be a success, that way when one is a success you are always right

 

[MatrixReloaded101]

Sometimes failure seems obvious (Concord being a DEI nightmare for example) but what makes a success? I'm just curious if folks here think there's any way to predict which GAAS games will succeed? Or is it really just like playing the lottery/random, with a few lucky winners? Very curious what folks think makes some GAAS games work while others fail? Is it style, content, starting as free to play vs starting as paid then going free to play, marketing, community management, gameplay loop, timing....your thoughts?

Concord did not fail because of DEI, it failed for two reasons:

1. The GAAS space is too crowed and it wasn't a good enough game to get people to want to invest time in it compared to the other GAAS games in the space. This is the main reason a lot of these games fail because GAAS requires a major time commitment and you need the players friends to want to also play the new game because most people playing these games are playing with their friends.

2. They tried to charge full price on day one for Concord when all of the successful GAAS games are free to play.

The above are the main reasons Concord failed and it has nothing to do with DEI. In most cases if a game is good DEI isn't going to make a game a fail. The GAAS space is just hyper competitive because they are all competing for the players attention and if your game isn't good enough to pull some of the players attention away from other games like Roblox, Fornite, Call of duty it's going to fail.

 

[Felessan]

It can if it's made by Mihoyo.

+Valve, Riot, Tencent, Netease, Perfect World etc.

Waifu+gacha. Not taking away anything from Mihoyo, but that's something they do well that most other developers would be absolute shit at. I know this because no one else has been remotely as successful as them at it.

There are many tens of successfull gacha games. Funny fact that Mihoyo was on a smaller scale in previous itetaration of gacha games. They were weaker than AzurLane, Arknights, GBF etc which probably compelled them to try something more ambitious
They get to AAA earlier and grab quite some cash and market share as a result, but it doesn't mean others don't know their stuff.
We already see some companies intruding like WuWa, Infinity Nikki, GFL2 etc and many more, including some old rivals, to follow

 

[Felessan]

Concord did not fail because of DEI, it failed for two reasons:

It failed because of DEI that made game ugly and some incompetence that made game uninteresting to play.

1. The GAAS space is too crowed and it wasn't a good enough game to get people to want to invest time in it compared to the other GAAS games in the space. This is the main reason a lot of these games fail because GAAS requires a major time commitment and you need the players friends to want to also play the new game because most people playing these games are playing with their friends.

Deadlock, which is exactly same genre soft launched at the same time as Concord, regarded as success and has quite good ccu numbers for invite-only game.
11 games was more or less successful, out of 16 launched in 2024. It ain't looks like space is very crowded by results.

People just continue to repeat same narratives don't even bothered to check if they are true or not.

2. They tried to charge full price on day one for Concord when all of the successful GAAS games are free to play.

WoW, FF14, HD2, Palworld are paid.

 

[Angry_Megalodon]

Waifu+gacha. Not taking away anything from Mihoyo, but that's something they do well that most other developers would be absolute shit at. I know this because no one else has been remotely as successful as them at it.

Obviously it's not only that. Genshin has production values, music and lore that dwarfs those games people claimed it "copied" from. The scope of that game was unprecedented in the genre and they have built on that ever since. Any other dev would have settled and milked the IP to oblivion but in barely a generation they have produced other 2 juggernaut games. They have raised the bar for the competition, too.

That kind of ambition is key. For example, I don't particularly like HZD but its world is full of possibilities. However, the first leaked images smell of Fornitesque slop. The same with Suicide Squad. Even if you ignore the atrocious design and writing, the gameplay was extremely mediocre, nothing memorable.

 

[MatrixReloaded101]

It failed because of DEI that made game ugly and some incompetence that made game uninteresting to play.


Deadlock, which is exactly same genre soft launched at the same time as Concord, regarded as success and has quite good ccu numbers for invite-only game.
11 games was more or less successful, out of 16 launched in 2024. It ain't looks like space is very crowded by results.

People just continue to repeat same narratives don't even bothered to check if they are true or not.


WoW, FF14, HD2, Palworld are paid.

Deadlock got a lot of support because of the steam fanboys who desperately wants to play a new Valve game.

WoW, FF14, HD2, Palworld are paid but not the same type of game as Concord, Concord didn't even have a single player mode or PVE.

People keep saying it failed due to DEI but when you look at the nuance that doesn't even make sense, Even if the game had attractive female and white male characters it still would have failed because of the reasons I mentioned.

 

[Angry_Megalodon]

People keep saying it failed due to DEI but when you look at the nuance that doesn't even make sense, Even if the game had attractive female and white male characters it still would have failed because of the reasons I mentioned.

People keep saying it because DEI devs lack any creativity and that impacts negatively gameplay, level design and worldbuilding too. The hideous characters is the outer shell of a rotten core.

For those people it was a great idea to make a Temu clone of GOTG with overwatch loop. Brilliant!

Hire true artists who focus on the right things and magic will happen.

 

[yurinka]

Can non-GaaS games success be predicted?

The answer is the same than for GaaS: nobody has a crystal ball, there are many factors involved, some of which can't be controlled by those who make the game. Some of them are known close to release, when it's too late to make big changes, but not 5-9+ years ago when they were prototyping and greenlighting the project.

Player preferences change over time pretty quickly and games take many years to be made so it's difficult to adapt with limited budget and time. Plus everybody has different tastes, so it's impossible to make everyone happy and on top of this there are loud spammy haters in social media and youtube, plus hit pieces against them in certain media outlets etc.

People who wants certain companies and games they never played -or intented to play- to fail. Because they are supposed to be 'fans' of that company but want them to do something else, or because are fanboys of the direct competition of that company, or are simply paid shills.

 

[MatrixReloaded101]

People keep saying it because DEI devs lack any creativity and that impacts negatively gameplay, level design and worldbuilding too. The hideous characters is the outer shell of a rotten core.

For those people it was a great idea to make a Temu clone of GOTG with overwatch loop. Brilliant!

Hire true artists who focus on the right things and magic will happen.

We can agree to disagree ... lol

 

[Loomy]

Obviously it's not only that. Genshin has production values, music and lore that dwarfs those games people claimed it "copied" from. The scope of that game was unprecedented in the genre and they have built on that ever since. Any other dev would have settled and milked the IP to oblivion but in barely a generation they have produced other 2 juggernaut games. They have raised the bar for the competition, too.

That kind of ambition is key. For example, I don't particularly like HZD but its world is full of possibilities. However, the first leaked images smell of Fornitesque slop. The same with Suicide Squad. Even if you ignore the atrocious design and writing, the gameplay was extremely mediocre, nothing memorable.

I think you've nailed it.

People can very quickly tell when you've done the bare minimum to try and squeeze a few quick dollars out of them. That's a big part of why Marathon is in the position it's in right now.

I pointed out waifu+gacha in the case of Mihoyo because that's what stands out first before you spend much time in those worlds, and that's probably a bit reductive on my part. I played quite of bit of Genshin the first few months it was out before they really built it out to what it is today. But you're right in that no one else - at least in North America/Europe today - could make a similar game.

 

[Felessan]

because most people playing these games are playing with their friends.

Only hardcore core play "committed" when you are commiting to play at certain time or with certain people
When people become older and/or more busy, these commitments go away and playstyle become more casual and session based - you get in, play match or two and leave. Sometimes with friends, but often not. And with this playstyle there is absolutely no problem mixing different gaas games or mix gaas and SP games.
Wanna quick match in dota - hop in and play one or two games. Wanna shoot someone in the head for half an hour - login to Fortnite or Warzone. Wanna waifu action - Genshin or ZZZ at hand. Those games are very good at providing short, meaningfull and complete pieces of gameplay time. Casual's favorite.
And if you want some 20-100hours long wholesome experience - you take a break and play SP games.

People keep saying it failed due to DEI but when you look at the nuance that doesn't even make sense

Ok... So if I understood properly all games that didn't fail is exception because -
Deadlock - coz Valve
Marvel Rivals - coz Marvel
Palworld - coz Pokemons
PoE2 - coz sequel to PoE
ZZZ - coz Mihoyo
WuWa - coz Genshin clone
Infinity Nikki - coz girls game
1st Descendent - coz MMO lite with girls (this one had troubles but on the way of recovering)
GFL2 - who don't like play XCOM with anime waifus
Helldivers2 - coz because
Throne and Liberty - I really don't know

There are a lot of nuances that you and others talk that are not really relevant. It sounds like you are talking about live service games from 2000, not 2025. A lot of things changed, players behavior changed considerably, games heavily adapted to not try to monopolize time etc.

 

[SHAKEZ]

The problem with GaaS game design is that most of them just try to sell half-baked games from the start and demand a huge grind or money to progress. If the gameplay isn't there (and it usually isn't) nothing will save it.

 

[Gojiira]

Not really. The First Descendant is a great example, everything looked right from the reveal, gorgeous characters, deep mechanics, free to play, nothing locked behind paywall etc etc to now where MTX are getting egregious, power creep has ruined players engagement since all their time was wasted on grinding objectively weak older characters, and content is simply not rolling out enough…It started well but its declining rapidly.

Warframe is the poster child for how to do GAAS right, no pay to win, premium currency can be earned entirely within the game, no removal of content, updates nonstop throughout the year, devs actively engage with the players, power creep is less of a thing because the devs actually take the time to rework older Frames etc. Then its just a fucking solid fun game. So if something was announced that had all of Warframes basic structure then yes it can be assumed it will succeed. Just like Warframes sister game Soulframe very likely will too.

 

[Plague Doctor]

After talking shit on the core idea I will say this about GAAS and trend chasing...

I would straight up murder for a licensed Warhmmaer 40k Helldivers 2 clone.

Now that IP would be glorious in that format.

 

[KiteGr]

If the trailer starts with a strong independent possibility lesbian black woman, then it's a dud.

If it is a new IP and it's sold at a price, then it's a dud.

If it has pronoun's, it's a dud.

If it apes something other on the market that it's still loved, it's a dud.

If it's made by a studio with a reputation of being to corporate, charging the maximum for the minimum or being into activism for "the modern audience", then, regardless of the concept, you guessed it!... A dud.

 

[Fess]

No obvious gender politics. It's suicide.
Character design with feminine women.
No purple color scheme, don't make the wolves suspicious.
No voice actor or dev woke drama talked about on YouTube or X.
No platform exclusivity, it'll just lure out the warriors to exaggerate any negativity.
Good gameplay!