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Marathon releases to 87,000 players on Steam and 87% Positive Reviews (sponsored by coachmcguirk91)

They? It must be sustainable at those kind of numbers though right? Just about?
Will all of these players spend MORE money beyond buying the game though, or will just a select few of them do?

Edit:
Do we have ANY numbers from other ONLINE games on how many of the CCU's that actually pay more money, how small is that percentage?
 
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Will all of these players spend MORE money beyond buying the game though, or will just a select few of them do?
It should be doing better than it is but that's a good point how much is it generating after the initial purchase? If it's decent it should be fine at these kind of numbers but who knows?
 
Embark spent 100 million building 5 maps where you run around collecting literal, actual garbage and they're swimming in piles of cash now.

A lot of people still don't understand the depth and complexity of the genre. It's not a mode like CTF or TD, it's a PvP RPG.

Any genre can be described in such obtuse manner if you're not willing to understand the art form.

Hold on.....................are you serious?! I know you love GAAS games and that's fine. I respect that. Are you honestly telling us it cost $100 Million to build 5 maps?

If true......WHOA!
 
Hold on.....................are you serious?! I know you love GAAS games and that's fine. I respect that. Are you honestly telling us it cost $100 Million to build 5 maps?

If true......WHOA!
The game took like 5 years to make, was basically reworked at one point. Was originally suppose to come out before the finals.
 
10 am completed hour tracking at -7% at 28k compared to the worst 10 am last week which was Thursday at 30k or so.

Thursday was also the lowest peak of 57k. So it should peak at about 54k today.
 
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Don't fret Copeathoners, I'm sure in a couple weeks Easter Jesus Bunny will put a copy of Marathon for every boy and girl in their Easter basket and then the player numbers will skyrocket! /s

Oooor you can accept the fact that Marathon is a mid game in a niche genre that's already saturated and is made by a studio who has, over the last several years of Destiny 2 mismanagement, torched all of their goodwill with gamers to the ground and the game has already peaked. Well below what they'd need to break even on this nine figure development mess.

I'm betting the Copeathoners will find the first scenario to easier to believe than accept the second.
 
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This thread finally delivered a meme format we can use for years.
 
It's not skewing PC , it's almost all PC. The console sales are atrocious and I've seen dozens and dozens of posts from people in regions other than the U.S. talking about not being able to turn off cross play with PC because their wait times are shit, or being constantly tossed in U.S. servers because of a lack of local players.

For all the hand wringing about discussing Steam CCU numbers, they're literally as good as it gets for this game. It's the 20th best seller on PS5, which means it dropped 4 places since Saturday. It's like 70+ on Xbox, it might as well not even exist on that platform.

Steam is the end all be all of this game and it's fate is solely tied to what it does on Steam at this point.

It would have helped had Bungie created a single player component to excite console players. But.......it is what it is.
 
Embark spent 100 million building 5 maps where you run around collecting literal, actual garbage and they're swimming in piles of cash now.

A lot of people still don't understand the depth and complexity of the genre. It's not a mode like CTF or TD, it's a PvP RPG.

Any genre can be described in such obtuse manner if you're not willing to understand the art form.
We need a 🤡 reaction
 
Gamalytics revised their estimate down. Instead of 977k copes sold. It's now at 778k. I think Paul Tassi said Marathon was skewing a bit more to PC. So maybe consoles are 600k. In total, maybe the game has sold 1.4M-ish.

And it's not that their data link on Steam isnt updated. You can see the # of reviews, followers and playtime are up from the old data set.


Mar 14.....................................................................Mar 16

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Gamalytics is based on algorithmic analysis and it becomes more accurate the longer a game has been released. It is very inaccurate near launch but after a few months of data it becomes pretty close the real sales number
 
Gamalytics is based on algorithmic analysis and it becomes more accurate the longer a game has been released. It is very inaccurate near launch but after a few months of data it becomes pretty close the real sales number
Player by country seems to map the highs and lows here accurately by time for peaks and lows.
 
Hold on.....................are you serious?! I know you love GAAS games and that's fine. I respect that. Are you honestly telling us it cost $100 Million to build 5 maps?

If true......WHOA!
doesnt seem true at all

 
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10 am completed hour tracking at -7% at 28k compared to the worst 10 am last week which was Thursday at 30k or so.

Thursday was also the lowest peak of 57k. So it should peak at about 54k today.
45,500 last Thursday vs 45,000 at the same time today. Strong holds, at least in the European market for sure. There is a die hard fan base. I would be surprised if there are drastic declines going forward
 
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Will all of these players spend MORE money beyond buying the game though, or will just a select few of them do?

Edit:
Do we have ANY numbers from other ONLINE games on how many of the CCU's that actually pay more money, how small is that percentage?
If a game has 1 million monthly players, the general rule is that 150K of them will use money per month on the game.
 
I was going to assume a little higher like 10% to be "nice" ...
If a game has 1 million monthly players, the general rule is that 150K of them will use money per month on the game.

So like 10% that's... that's.. ehh. YIKES!
 
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If you graphed out each hour compared to the same on the previous day. Aside from the weekend it's basically becoming flat.

Great for retention, but growth isn't growing.

Duos are coming as a test on Wednesday and Cryo map is coming shortly too. Maybe there are people holding off as they don't want to play solo or trio, so duo will light things up a bit.

Certainly all too soon to expect some huge change to drop that's going to sell a new angle in order to capture fresh players. It's a very interesting scenario though. Absolutely not a bomb game, but not a breakaway success either. Big business want to exist on growth, so I wonder how the conversations are going within Sony about it all.
 
If you graphed out each hour compared to the same on the previous day. Aside from the weekend it's basically becoming flat.

Great for retention, but growth isn't growing.

Duos are coming as a test on Wednesday and Cryo map is coming shortly too. Maybe there are people holding off as they don't want to play solo or trio, so duo will light things up a bit.

Certainly all too soon to expect some huge change to drop that's going to sell a new angle in order to capture fresh players. It's a very interesting scenario though. Absolutely not a bomb game, but not a breakaway success either. Big business want to exist on growth, so I wonder how the conversations are going within Sony about it all.
A lot of gaas games are not massive hits on day 1, but evolve over time to become huge. I am sure Bungie has at least a year of providing major updates to get the player base where it needs to be. Almost two weeks later, retention seems pretty solid, even if it is smaller than what was estimated to be at launch
 
doesnt seem true at all


Even this is just a really wordy way to say "Our devs have more than one skillset, don't whine about using multiple tools, and have a lot more freedom to make decisions / content instead of waiting for the design committee to approve every change." All this to say let talented cool people just make cool shit.

The sad thing is there probably is a universe out there where Bungie has half as much staff and ends up putting out more content with fewer design fuck ups. If I've learned anything in my career it's that some people can bring negative value to a company, they cause nothing but fuck ups and the company would be better off paying them to do nothing.
 
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A lot of gaas games are not massive hits on day 1, but evolve over time to become huge. I am sure Bungie has at least a year of providing major updates to get the player base where it needs to be. Almost two weeks later, retention seems pretty solid, even if it is smaller than what was estimated to be at launch

That's why this is an interesting journey to watch. Because we'll find out how the Bungie/Sony relationship is and what the expectations are.

Take Hyenas for example

SEGA let that game develop all the way up to shipping before canning it. Somehow a project went through its entire life dev cycle with presumably plans and agreements in place before it all changed.

We know that Hyenas was a shit show, but it was still able to go through the development process and have playtests.


Marathon has something, but in no world is it a runaway success printing money. So are the plans at Bungie strong enough to give them the time to reach whatever numbers were in the sales projections?

We have no answers. We're just observers to this. I care because this is an industry giant launching a big game, technically not a new IP, but to most it basically is. The industry has just racked up years of giant mistakes, Sony being key to one of the biggest of all time. Have they sobered up? Have they stopped chasing unrealistic numbers? Do they see something that Marathon's core base do in order to keep this one alive, giving it more time to grow?
 
I sorta can't get over the way it stays super steady, like to a tee every day that up and down graph even tho it's slowly losing small percentages, still stays pretty steady day to day.

It's wild there's no massive spikes in either direction.

Speaking more about the pattern of gamers playing the exact same times, I'd just imagine sometimes more fluctuations in general
 
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That's why this is an interesting journey to watch. Because we'll find out how the Bungie/Sony relationship is and what the expectations are.

Take Hyenas for example

SEGA let that game develop all the way up to shipping before canning it. Somehow a project went through its entire life dev cycle with presumably plans and agreements in place before it all changed.

We know that Hyenas was a shit show, but it was still able to go through the development process and have playtests.


Marathon has something, but in no world is it a runaway success printing money. So are the plans at Bungie strong enough to give them the time to reach whatever numbers were in the sales projections?

We have no answers. We're just observers to this. I care because this is an industry giant launching a big game, technically not a new IP, but to most it basically is. The industry has just racked up years of giant mistakes, Sony being key to one of the biggest of all time. Have they sobered up? Have they stopped chasing unrealistic numbers? Do they see something that Marathon's core base do in order to keep this one alive, giving it more time to grow?
I don't like the comparison. Sony has already invested 300-400mil on Marathon. That money is already gone. No game with peak player counts above 15,000 on Steam ever gets shut down or loses support. It is practically free money for Sony to continously invest in Marathon unless the playerbase drastically collapses. The reason being is because it is a lot cheaper to update a game than build it from the ground up. Marathon won't need nearly as many people working on it after release

Even if Sony knew that Marathon would only have Steam daily peaks of 25-30k for the next 5 years, it would still generate 100's of millions of dollars in revenue. Obviously, Sony hopes Marathon is bigger than that over time, but there really isn't a debate about what Sony does in the short term. They are going to invest in Marathon
 
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I sorta can't get over the way it stays super steady, like to a tee every day that up and down graph even tho it's slowly losing small percentages, still stays pretty steady day to day.

It's wild there's no massive spikes in either direction.

It's not that crazy and people need to stop refreshing the marathon metrics every 2 hours obsessively.

Theres probably a trickle of new purchases along side people walking away from it to balance out. It's not Concord or Highguard levels of flop and it's not going to go to 0 players in a week. Expect it to slowly drop off over 2-3 months as people get tired of the repetition and have actually had their fill. Bungie can pump content into it to keep it going but that's not going to drive crazy player growth, it'll just slow the bleeding and Sony won't fund that forever.

The scary thing for Bungie are the dips though. When the player base gets so low you can't match make and suddenly you can only play Marathon during specific hours. That's true death spiral territory for a game like this. 18k low point over night is starting to look grim and when that gets into the 5k territory it'll be panic time.
 
I sorta can't get over the way it stays super steady, like to a tee every day that up and down graph even tho it's slowly losing small percentages, still stays pretty steady day to day.

It's wild there's no massive spikes in either direction.
That's the negative though is that it's slowly declining only after 2 weeks. How anyone thinks it's ok is beyond me. Like others have said the console versions are doing even worse apparently, it's in trouble no question or should I say Bungie because layoffs will be first.
 
I sorta can't get over the way it stays super steady, like to a tee every day that up and down graph even tho it's slowly losing small percentages, still stays pretty steady day to day.

It's wild there's no massive spikes in either direction.

I'm no mathematician, but it might be that it has found a dedicated audience.

It keeps hanging around #8-9 in revenue, too, but not selling a ton more copies, indicating that the dedicated fans are spending money.

It's not gonna die this month, sorry guys.
 
I'm no mathematician, but it might be that it has found a dedicated audience.

It keeps hanging around #8-9 in revenue, too, but not selling a ton more copies, indicating that the dedicated fans are spending money.

It's not gonna die this month, sorry guys.

No absolutely it found it's audience, what I'm speaking about tho is it's wild to see for any game the numbers lock right in give or take a few thousand at the same intervals daily. I don't typically CCU watch but this one was quite interesting.

Like I feel it should have larger swings up or down but it's locked in in that 50k ish area. But it is steadily going down tho and thats a bad sign ultimately.

I don't think the game is closing up shop but who knows with how Sony is, this genuinely may not cut it.. Very interesting situation.

But I do ask this, if bungie wasn't tied to this... Does this game even recognition at all? I don't think it does.
 
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Problem with gaming is they let the inmates run the asylum.

Unless it's GTA which google says GT4 sold 25M copies by 2013 and GTA5 has sold 225M (that's insane and doesnt even sound possible!), no game should ever cost $100s of million. Ok, maybe $100M tops if it's going to be a high selling AAA quality game, but when you see games like ARC, 33, random weird indie games, Nintendo kinds of games, or even the average soldier dude shooter, I dont think any of these take humongous sums of money to make a good game.

If a game does it means they got too many people, they cost too much too, and it takes way too long draining the coffers. It's like one giant sucking sound where the corporate coffers just get lower and lower every day till its zero. And that doesn't even include if they blow their wad of cash on marketing or hiring streamers to promote the game.

It's funny because over the past 5+ years, movies and TV shows are similar. Media has run amok just throwing around cash like its nothing.

These kinds of companies must have the most loosey goosey execs, no finance departments to check the costs and budgets, and no project managers to keep projects on schedule. Heck, get me a job there. I wouldnt mind slumming it raking in money with no accountability being in check.

Amazing how so many quality games were made so much faster way back. You'd get sequels every two years too.
 
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Problem with gaming is they let the inmates run the asylum.

Unless it's GTA which google says GT4 sold 25M copies by 2013 and GTA5 has sold 225M (that's insane and doesnt even sound possible!), no game should ever cost $100s of million. Ok, maybe $100M tops if it's going to be a high selling AAA quality game, but when you see games like ARC, 33, random weird indie games, Nintendo kinds of games, or even the average soldier dude shooter, I dont think any of these take humongous sums of money.

If a game does it means they got too many people, they costs too much too, and it takes way too long draining the coffers. And that doesn't even include if they blow their wad of cash on marketing or hiring streamers to promote the game.

It's funny because over the past 5+ years, movies and TV shows are similar. Media has run amok just throwing around cash like its nothing.

These kinds of companies must have the most loosey goosey execs, no finance departments to check the costs and budgets, and no project managers to keep projects on schedule. Heck, get me a job there. I wouldnt mind slumming it raking in money with no accountability being in check.

Amazing how so many quality games were made so much faster way back. You'd get sequels every two years too.

The Bethesda years in the late 90s and early 2000s a prime example, how many fallout and ES we got in short spans... I don't need games to take 15 years to come out, like I'd be happy with graphics from mid 2000s even to this day... Just make games
 
I don't like the comparison. Sony has already invested 300-400mil on Marathon. That money is already gone.

And if the reports are true, Hyenas was SEGA's most expensive game. When they cancelled that the money had already been spent and they didn't even give it the chance to find out if it could find a player base.

I don't think the games are comparable many ways. I was just presenting a reality that played out by a company in a way that defied basic assumptions like "I'm sure the game will have at least a year" because that statement makes logical sense from the view point of giving a product it's best chance of life, yet we see way to many counter examples to this though to say that such sound arguments are not reasonable takes in reality.

I just finished watching the 6 hour Jeff Kaplan interview where he talked about the financial expectations put on him for Overwatch where it needed to be doing insane numbers to be considered a success (The numbers were redacted, but could be inferred to be giant) or else 1000 people would be axed. The sentiment was clear that he felt the request was completely unreasonable, yet here we are in an industry of chasers execs who think they can lightning in a bottle because a chart says so.

So I too don't like the comparison, but for the reason that I wish we didn't have an industry that chases unrealistic numbers, where we wouldn't need to compare against failures of the past.
 
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I'm a bit confused, you guys don't see the decline, really? It got a boost this weekend because, well, it's the weekend but this week is gonna be terrible

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Game already dipped bellow 20K today so... not good at all

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And its launch is so low that obviously it's not going to lose 20K players every week, otherwise there wouldn't be anyone left.
 
I'm a bit confused, you guys don't see the decline, really? It got a boost this weekend because, well, it's the weekend but this week is gonna be terrible

YIzjxQzAHsTmyGgY.png


Game already dipped bellow 20K today so... not good at all

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And its launch is so low that obviously it's not going to lose 20K players every week, otherwise there wouldn't be anyone left.
Yea ultimately it's in bad shape, i don't think the end game is gonna be strong enough to keep this game alive
 
The Bethesda years in the late 90s and early 2000s a prime example, how many fallout and ES we got in short spans... I don't need games to take 15 years to come out, like I'd be happy with graphics from mid 2000s even to this day... Just make games
Problem with game companies (in particular western ones who have the budget but blow it) is they also always got to amp it up "bigger and better". Firstly, better is subjective since the game or sequel might be shit, but to be fair when they say bigger it's probably true. More of this or that, triple the open world area to explore etc... Well, if a game is going to be promoted heavily on quantity then of course the budget is going to be massive.

Many games also got a knack for spending tons of money of tons on cutscenes and voice acting like gaming has to skew to a hollywood movie.
 
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I'm a bit confused, you guys don't see the decline, really? It got a boost this weekend because, well, it's the weekend but this week is gonna be terrible

YIzjxQzAHsTmyGgY.png


Game already dipped bellow 20K today so... not good at all

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And its launch is so low that obviously it's not going to lose 20K players every week, otherwise there wouldn't be anyone left.
Currently down about -5% vs Friday similar time.

The game actually bottom last night under 18k. Smogsmok posted in the morning it hit something like 17,800.
 
Yea ultimately it's in bad shape, i don't think the end game is gonna be strong enough to keep this game alive
Only way it would is if the small playerbase remaining become really big spenders, like what happened with The Finals. However, The Finals skins actually look good, whereas even Marathon players agree the cosmetics they sell in the game are super lackluster.
 
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And if the reports are true, Hyenas was SEGA's most expensive game. When they cancelled that the money had already been spent and they didn't even give it the chance to find out if it could find a player base.

I don't think the games are comparable many ways. I was just presenting a reality that played out by a company in a way that defied basic assumptions like "I'm sure the game will have at least a year" because that statement makes logical sense from the view point of giving a product it's best chance of life, yet we see way to many counter examples to this though to say that such sound arguments are not reasonable takes in reality.

I just finished watching the 6 hour Jeff Kaplan interview where he talked about the financial expectations put on him for Overwatch where it needed to be doing insane numbers to be considered a success (The numbers were redacted, but could be inferred to be giant) or else 1000 people would be axed. The sentiment was clear that he felt the request was completely unreasonable, yet here we are in an industry of chasers execs who think they can lightning in a bottle because a chart says so.

So I too don't like the comparison, but for the reason that I wish we didn't have an industry that chases unrealistic numbers, where we wouldn't need to compare against failures of the past.
I guarantee you that if SEGA believed Hyena's could maintain 20-30k playerbase on Steam, it would not have been canceled. I am sure unlike Concord, execs at SEGA actually playtested Hyenas before release and figured it would bomb and decided it wasn't worth it to release it

And success does not always equate to profitability. Execs at Blizzard probably viewed success as a billion dollar franchise with Overwatch. Those were the expectations. Marathon may have had similar expectations, but it doesn't mean that Sony will cut funding to Marathon if it is still generating money. There could still be layoffs, though
 
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