Mark it, 3-5 months.
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Windows Phone 7 |OT|
- Thread starter brotkasten
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Mark it, 3-5 months.
So kinectimals was your killer feature?
An Xbox Live Companion app and the ability to upload docs to skydrive from iOS don't take away a single thing from WP7. It's still the overall best mobile OS IMO on the market.
Can't tell if you're being serious or being coperdickus.
brotkasten
Member
Seriously, Microsoft took way too long for SkyDrive on iOS. Take a picture with your windows phone, upload it, download it on your iPad and edit it with one of the many, many editing apps. Boom. Magic.
(replace iPad with Windows 8 pad in Q4 2012)
Between G Drive, Skydrive, and iDrive, dropbox doesn't stand a chance in '12.
Especially since all of the drives will have web interfaces.
I saw my mom using Skydrive. I asked her why she doesn't just put them in her dropbox, she slapped me and told me to watch my mouth.
Psychotext
Member
Deserved.
Depends on how good their web interface, native app, and API is. That's why Dropbox has been king for so long and why I still don't use SkyDrive over Dropbox regardless of its storage space advantage. (I'm only using 800MB)
What were your reasons before?
It will not be 3-5 months, however there is the possibility of that occurring in 2-3 years.
If (once) Microsoft unveils the built in Windows 8 folder syncing feature (mesh). Then everyone will automatically start using that by default.
Dropbox has what, around 4 million users in 2010? Lets assume by the time windows 8 launches (Q4 2012) dropbox has around 10 million active users (being generous). Around 7 million of those are going to be Windows users already.
Within 6 months there will be at least 100 million licenses for Windows 8 out there (assuming windows 7 sales penetration). Since this is the first 6 months, this will be licenses bought by enthusiasts standalone, and on new PC's. I doubt any of those will be enterprise downgraded licenses (since you can still buy W7 licenses).
Lets assume that of the people that bought those 100 million licenses, the average number of PC's per user is 1.2 (guess). So ~80m different users, with ~20m of those with 2 or more Windows 8 devices.
Of those 20m with 2+ devices, lets assume 5m (out of 7m) are current dropbox users (again generous).
Even if only those with multiple devices used the Windows Mesh syncing for the devices (minus the dropbox users) you are still looking at 15m Windows Mesh sync users vs 7m Dropbox users, and i would bet that the windows mesh sync will turn some of the dropbox users.
Then you start counting those in the remaining 60m that will just sync with the cloud. Add on those that will sync with Windows Phones or even iOS with SkyDrive and Office iOS (ugh). Then scale that to 400m users in two years.
Things are not looking pretty for Dropbox. (I have not even calculated what they might lose on the Mac side with iCloud).
Dropbox had 25 million users 6 months ago. There's no indication that 70% of dropbox users are Windows users.
The majority of your post is based on assumptions and guesses. That's not convincing.
From 2010:
http://blog.dropbox.com/?p=339
Edit:
25 million. Lot more growth than i gave them credit for. Lets say 50m by 2012. 35m being Windows.
A lot of that is coming from dropbox add ins on android. So my new assumptions is around 15m upgrading to windows 8 in the first 6 months.
Based on that Windows 8 Mesh/Folder syncing only needs a take up rate of 15% to match dropbox, assuming it doesnt convert any existing dropbox users. Not a lot, considering it will be built into every Windows 8 device.
Fair enough, though 66% is still not 70%.
Fair enough, though 66% is still not 70%.
Was being generous.
In all fairness i think Windows 8 will sell more than Windows 7. 120-130m in 6 months, maybe even 150m.
Well, of course I'm exaggerating a bit, but the Xbox and Office (and to a lesser extent Skydrive) integration were part of it.
In the end, I guess I just always loved the WP7 UI design so it doesn't make that much of a difference. It will just get harder to defend my choice in front of some of my iPhone-obsessed friends.
Found a current stat. They had 45 million users at the end of October: http://www.dropbox.com/press/20111027
only happens when I'm connected to the car kit. Don't know if it'd be the same with a bluetooth headset, but maybe.
1 million "Team" accounts ie Businesses.
My calculations were for personal use cases.
the minimum is 5 users per account, lets assume 10 on average per account, so discount 10 million users to 35million. With that i still stand by my approximate of 50m by Windows 8 launch.
Were they? How exactly did you discount businesses that use Windows 7 and in the future, Windows 8? How exactly are you approximating 50 million non-business users at launch? These are useless guesses.
Vanillalite
Ask me about the GAF Notebook
No, but when I bought my Focus I figured MS as a whole would give more a shit about the platform. Instead they are using company resources to make their apps work in other ecosystems instead of putting that work to use on their own platform.
I mean I'd buy the fuck out of a Halo or Forza game for Windows Phone, but instead 343i is porting wavepoint to iOS.
It doesn't help when most 3rd parties unless specifically targeted (maybe money hat'd) treat the platform as an after thought. Just look at the Twitter stuff this week. Only way to get the new Twitter interface for your desktop was to download the also newly released redone apps. Of course those apps were for iOS and Android. Got a Windows Phone and want to try out the new desktop interface? Your shit out of luck.
Throw the fact that MS hasn't really pushed the new hardware this Fall or tried to get the platform a solid spotlight on all the major carriers, and it seems like MS just doesn't give a fuck.
My assumption was that in the first 6 months all licenses were enthusiast and new PC's.
Any enterprise purchases were Windows 7 licenses because no business is going to jump on straight away.
Oh and my figures are purely windows 8 figures. The only time i included Enterprise sales, was when i said "scale to 400m users in two years". However if you want to start talking about enterprise numbers and take up rate, i think Office 365 will see a large uptake.
Oh, another assumption.
We can argue about the assumptions if you want.
I stated them clearly so you don't think i jumped to a magical number.
An argument based off of assumptions isn't an argument worth having. I hate speculation.
Unfortunately my job is around speculation. Although I have a ton more data and weeks worth of research (usually).
Im not saying these assumptions are perfect, but they are going to be in the right ball park. The two i would be slightly wary of will be the Number of Dropbox users at W8 launch, and the 80m users that are already Dropbox users.
brotkasten
Member
They're obviously not putting all their resources in Windows Phone 7/7.5, that's true, but you can't expect them to ignore far bigger markets for things like Office/OneNote or SkyDrive. That's software that should've been there from day one, if they want to gain any market share in those markets. SkyDrive on iOS is a big fucking deal for competitors like Dropbox and Apple was selling their iWorks suite from day one. Office for iPad should've launched with the iPad 2.
I just don't get the concerns. I got a Windows Phone because of the interface and philosophy behind it, not because of Xbox Live and Office and other integrations. That's just delicious icing on the cake, because it works really well. iOS is fucking boring and Android is disgusting, so no way I'd touch that, even if Microsoft would release Windows 8 apps first on those platforms. The only time you'll see me rage, is when they really ignore their own platform and the apps on iOS start to get better and better, while nothing happens on my phone. Which is obviously what will happen over time, as we saw it with the Bing app. the curse of integrated features and slow updates.
Everything below is an opinion.
Microsoft should never release a native office suite for iOS or android.
The biggest market for microsoft right now is the enterprise, which is seeing alot of uptake of the iPad. Right now it is nothing more than a glorified Blackberry (another enterprise pillar). In a microsoft environment (most enterprises), the ipad only functions with the exchange server natively. Now you can view and do small edits on office documents received through email, but the apps used are poor excuses for an office suite. In addition editing a document on an ipad with one of these apps causes headaches for those on windows as the formatting is not preserved.
With a proper office suite, the big thing is not all the funtions, but the preservation of the document file, formatting and all. Example: Google docs and Office Web apps - upload anything more than plain text in a docx file to both, and google docs will make that file horible to use from then on. Office Web app will preserve everything, you might not be able to edit everything, but it will still be there when you open the file in a native client.
So as soon as the iPad gets proper office, the uptake will be even more, with some business roles not requiring a PC at all. (Theres still the massive issue of moving files around).
Now if you talk about a windows 8 PC, that can be provisioned in the active directory, connect to network shares and SharePoint sites, Exchange servers and lync servers and can edit documents without screwing them up. You talk about a real business device.
Releasing office for iPad negates the opportunity for that to happen.
I just don't get the concerns. I got a Windows Phone because of the interface and philosophy behind it, not because of Xbox Live and Office and other integrations. That's just delicious icing on the cake, because it works really well. iOS is fucking boring and Android is disgusting, so no way I'd touch that, even if Microsoft would release Windows 8 apps first on those platforms. The only time you'll see me rage, is when they really ignore their own platform and the apps on iOS start to get better and better, while nothing happens on my phone. Which is obviously what will happen over time, as we saw it with the Bing app. the curse of integrated features and slow updates.
Hear hear, one of the reason i give when people ask why i switched to windows phone.
brotkasten
Member
The Office team doesn't really give a shit about Windows. They're Microsoft's second biggest pillar and already cockblocked Microsoft's first tablet attempt.
I still don't see how Office iPad would be bigger than this:
Thanks to this, people and companies around the world don't have any need for a Windows PC.
Vanillalite
Ask me about the GAF Notebook
I just don't get the concerns. I got a Windows Phone because of the interface and philosophy behind it, not because of Xbox Live and Office and other integrations. That's just delicious icing on the cake, because it works really well. iOS is fucking boring and Android is disgusting, so no way I'd touch that, even if Microsoft would release Windows 8 apps first on those platforms. The only time you'll see me rage, is when they really ignore their own platform and the apps on iOS start to get better and better, while nothing happens on my phone. Which is obviously what will happen over time, as we saw it with the Bing app. the curse of integrated features and slow updates.
I got it for the interface like everyone else did. I mean I got my phone at launch because I liked the interface. Your crazy if there wasn't a thought that MS would leverage the rest of their portfolio on the platform. I just don't feel they've really effectively done that yet. It hasn't helped that updates have been slow to come out, and the update process hasn't been as smooth as many would like.
Also as much as I love the interface that only goes so far if we don't get access to all the content which as of now seems to be pushed in the form of apps. I mean who cares what the interface is if the content isn't there on the platform? Maybe I'm just jaded in that fact WP7 seems to be an after thought at best for a lot of devs/apps and many just don't care or won't care with MS current app development structure like Epic.
I don't own an iPhone because I'd agree the interface is rather boring. It's hard to ignore though when they still seem to own the hearts and minds of most of the developers in the mobile world and this goes double for mobile game devs.
I get that they can't expect us to think they'd put all their energy into WP while ignoring other markets that they need to get in with their core products because markets like Android and iOS are so big. That's sort of MS fault for getting in the game with a refresh of their platform so late, and they can't expect people to jump back ship to a windows phone when like MS everyone developer is focusing iOS and Android because of their large market share.
Vanillalite
Ask me about the GAF Notebook
Sort of matters to me. I find that the Metro UI is more functional than iOS is currently as well in terms of presenting information to me. Live tiles and the notification system on WP is the best out there (I haven't used ICS yet tho) IMO. That only goes far though if the content isn't being made for the ecosystem.
EDIT: It's also worth noting the only reason people use their phones to just "run apps" is because that's mainly what the current paradigm offered when iOS and Android 1st started. Not that it's the only thing that COULD be done.
brotkasten
Member
I love the iPad, because most apps can come up with their own interface and hide the snoozefest that iOS is. I can't say the same about most iPhone apps.
Thats the boring part. in out in out.
I'm guessing that a bunch of the 'xbox live' games on windows phone were full or part-funded by MS.
dream
Member
But I mean what else are you supposed to do? How much time do people really spend dicking around with their OS?
Vanillalite
Ask me about the GAF Notebook
How is that boring? The Apps currently ARE the content/content portals. Maybe it's boring accessing the content or the way the content is presented which is why I like WP7.
The problem is all of the content is mainly being created for the other two platforms with WP7 getting a bone every once in a while.
If you gave me a choice between iOS or WP with all the apps iOS currently has I wouldn't be having this discussion. WP currently has LESS than 10% of the apps that iOS has though.
- The office team should give a shit
- Office for mac is too much to give away on the ipad
- isnt the idea for microsoft to get people to buy a windows device?
I hear androidiots have to spend the entire time there just trying to get get enough battery life.
brotkasten
Member
I don't blame you of anyone else for your way of thinking. I guess I don't see the problem, because I'm not an app guy. The only 3rd party apps I use more than once in a week are WhatsApp, TuneIn Radio and Wonder Reader. IE comes next, then OneNote, Facebook and ... That's it, I think. I use Bing every once in a while, but not really frequently. I have few games installed, but never even launched some of them. I don't feel I'm missing anything. It's even worse on my iPad, where Reeder, iCab and Manga Rock Unity are pretty much the only apps I use (probably because that pos can't handle more).
I just don't get it, sorry. :lol
VanMardigan
has calmed down a bit.
The wall of icons/app launcher paradigm is what bored me with ios after 18 months. At least android has widgets, but it's ugly and janky and needy. Its not like I could never use those operating systems ever again, but I definitely prefer the wp7 approach.
Live tiles are better than static icons but the notification system on iOS 5 has put it on equal footing to WP notifications and surpassed it in some aspects such as notification center and the lock screen.
Maybe it is just my own use case for a phone, but the way i use apps and the services i use, are just to get at information. Now in the example below all the information is bubbled up for me in Windows Phone, that wouldn't happen in iOS.
From that one screen: i know what my next appointment is, the balance on my oystercard and the weather/temp outside. Three apps i dont have to go in and out of (the boring part). oh and i have to update 3 apps at some point.
Plus the start screen is personal and alive, my contacts pictures change every so often, and twitter feeds of people i know also bubble up. Its always nice to see when someone has changed their picture on facebook. So you dig in, see what new,oh look theyre online, lets chat.
I spend most of the time on my phone web browsing, on Facebook, communicating (text/IM), and listening to music. I had a better experience on my BlackBerry Bold 9900 than my iPhone 3G. I think Windows Phone is much better suited for my needs than iOS at the moment.
An app launcher isn't really what I'm looking for in a phone. And I guess I'm lazy because I don't care that much about discovering hundreds of new apps as long as I have ones that fit my needs that are well-designed.
brotkasten
Member
Brofist?
VanMardigan
has calmed down a bit.
I think the in/out commercials missed the point. People-centered vs. App centered captures why I like wp7 more. That's the difference for me. I think, at worst, wp7 will influence ios and android in a more integrated direction. Its already happening.
dream
Member
Aren't you using apps for all those tasks, though?
My issue with iOS was the "in and out" way of doing things where each app felt siloed from the rest. I really enjoy the Windows Phone hub concept. I haven't used it yet for a personal phone though (have experience with iOS, Android, and BlackBerry) but from the answer I got on this board it seems MSN runs pretty much in the background which is great. Texting is also built right into the People hub. It's grouped by function rather than application.
I can be a bit of a design nerd too so that's also a big part of it admittedly. Windows Phone to iOS feels like OS X to Windows XP.
Heh, like you I've also purchased a decent amount of iOS games I've never played x.x It's like Steam.
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