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[shinobi602]

A new study from researchers at Jay W. Forrester's institute at MIT says that the world could suffer from "global economic collapse" and "precipitous population decline" if people continue to consume the world's resources at the current pace.

Smithsonian Magazine writes that Australian physicist Graham Turner says "the world is on track for disaster" and that current evidence coincides with a famous, and in some quarters, infamous, academic report from 1972 entitled, "The Limits to Growth."

Produced for a group called The Club of Rome, the study's researchers created a computing model to forecast different scenarios based on the current models of population growth and global resource consumption. The study also took into account different levels of agricultural productivity, birth control and environmental protection efforts. Twelve million copies of the report were produced and distributed in 37 different languages.

Most of the computer scenarios found population and economic growth continuing at a steady rate until about 2030. But without "drastic measures for environmental protection," the scenarios predict the likelihood of a population and economic crash.

However, the study said "unlimited economic growth" is still possible if world governments enact policies and invest in green technologies that help limit the expansion of our ecological footprint.

The Smithsonian notes that several experts strongly objected to "The Limit of Growth's" findings, including the late Yale economist Henry Wallich, who for 12 years served as a governor of the Federal Research Board and was its chief international economics expert. At the time, Wallich said attempting to regulate economic growth would be equal to "consigning billions to permanent poverty."

Turner says that perhaps the most startling find from the study is that the results of the computer scenarios were nearly identical to those predicted in similar computer scenarios used as the basis for "The Limits to Growth."

"There is a very clear warning bell being rung here," Turner said. "We are not on a sustainable trajectory."

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/sidesho...rchers-predict-global-economic-190352944.html

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[shinobi602]

Thank Y2Kev.

 

[The Chef]

I'm betting its going to be quite a bit sooner than that.

 

[Vicetrailia]

Fuck I'll still be alive.

Oh well, I just wait until it happens. Fuck it. More money now.

 

[Tesseract]

this is why pseudoscience is bad for society.

 

[NEOPARADIGM]

We are not on a sustainable trajectory

Pretty much, in general.

 

[storafötter]

I'm betting its going to be quite a bit sooner than that.

Pretty much and yet people still don't get a wake up call. I am just ashamed of our species and how selfish we are. We don't have a very sustainable way of thinking since we always want more of everything despite the consequence. If only everyone tried to do a little it would make a big difference, but this little thing is always "too" much for most of us privileged.

 

[Steelrain]

Hold on to your butts.

 

[CornBurrito]

Well at least it is global. If I get fucked I want everyone to go down with me.

Pretty much and yet people still don't get a wake up call. I am just ashamed of our species and how selfish we are. We don't have a very sustainable way of thinking since we always want more of everything despite the consequence.

You and many other species.

 

[marrec]

Because computers are great at predicting economic trends.

What a joke.

 

[Corky]

So how does one personally prepare?

 

[Orayn]

I'm betting its going to be quite a bit sooner than that.

And I'm betting we find solutions to at least some of these problems before shit really hits the fan. We went from 0 to space program in less time than this particular scenario gives us, so I don't see why we can't figure things out if the need really is great enough.

Also, in before feisty conservatives show up and make me laugh by calling this a liberal environmentalist conspiracy.

 

[Steelrain]

Pretty much and yet people still don't get a wake up call. I am just ashamed of our species and how selfish we are. We don't have a very sustainable way of thinking since we always want more of everything despite the consequence.

It's okay. We've been doomed for hundreds of thousands of years.

 

[JaseMath]

That last sentence you quoted tells the story. It'll be much, much sooner than 2030 - I'd wager it'll be before 2020.

 

[Orayn]

It's okay. We've been doomed for hundreds of thousands of years.

The planet is the video games industry and humanity is Nintendo.

 

[marrec]

So how does one personally prepare?

By ignoring biased "research" like this.

 

[GoingGreen]

We all know that solar power is the future; yet we continue let companies dick us around and be controlled by oil.

Why doesn't every single house in the world have solar panels on them? Even on our cars they should be there.

I get so sick and tired of the "it's too expensive" reply. Everything was expensive at one point and unless we actively and actually TRY and not be slaves to oil, then, yes I do agree with this report.

 

[David Incorporated Esq.]

We need to be inspired into another space race by a distant star suddenly vanishing without a trace behind some sort of force field. As the first real sign of extraterrestrial life it will be an impetus to develop FTL travel and go investigate.

It will be our second chance and I can't imagine how it could go wrong.

 

[ItAintEasyBeinCheesy]

I think I will be too old to be conscripted into the war

I'll go full bullet shield I don't care

 

[Prezhulio]

no shit it's not sustainable indefinitely.

now that you've established a model, how about these researchers invest their time into solving the problems to avoid this conjecture and not waste it screaming at people about the end of the world.

Spoiler

i'm sure many of the people responsible for it are doing just that with this data, but the countless idiots who will read shit like this and approach as it unavoidable trajectory are useless

 

[marrec]

We need to be inspired into another space race by a distant star suddenly vanishing without a trace behind some sort of force field. As the first real sign of extraterrestrial life it will be an impetus to develop FTL travel and go investigate.

It will be our second chance and I can't imagine how it could go wrong.

Someone's been reading Pandora's Star.

We all know that solar power is the future; yet we continue let companies dick us around and be controlled by oil.

Why doesn't every single house in the world have solar panels on them? Even on our cars they should be there.

I get so sick and tired of the "it's too expensive" reply. Everything was expensive at one point and unless we actively and actually TRY and not be slaves to oil, then, yes I do agree with this report.

Solar Power is the future.

The distant future. It's not currently reliable enough to provide power for an entire nation, much less a car that is used everyday.

 

[Vicetrailia]

We all know that solar power is the future; yet we continue let companies dick us around and be controlled by oil.

Why doesn't every single house in the world have solar panels on them? Even on our cars they should be there.

I get so sick and tired of the "it's too expensive" reply. Everything was expensive at one point and unless we actively and actually TRY and not be slaves to oil, then, yes I do agree with this report.

Needs lots more R&D. We should heavily support that, but it's not ready for the limelight.

 

[Gazzawa]

We all know that solar power is the future; yet we continue let companies dick us around and be controlled by oil.

Why doesn't every single house in the world have solar panels on them? Even on our cars they should be there.

I get so sick and tired of the "it's too expensive" reply. Everything was expensive at one point and unless we actively and actually TRY and not be slaves to oil, then, yes I do agree with this report.

just finished a research project on solar electricity. It has a long way to go. I installed one myself a few weeks ago. Absolutely useless effeciency. Currently @ 10-18% Needs to be at 40% to make it worthwhile for everyone.
That said heavy investment could make it possible.

 

[Rubbish King]

I dont understand how the entire world can go into debt, that shit just doesn't make sense, it' stupid, the world is stupid. Fuck you world

 

[Invisible_Insane]

I want to be on board with these conclusions, but it reeks a little bit of Malthusian hysteria. Like Malthus, it seems like models like these fail miserably at predicting the sort of revolutionary changes in technology that tend to render these projections incorrect. Not that I'm opposed to sustainable development, it just seems like we've been beating this drum for centuries.

 

[StealthGoblin]

And I'm betting we find solutions to at least some of these problems before shit really hits the fan. We went from 0 to space program in less time than this particular scenario gives us, so I don't see why we can't figure things out if the need really is great enough.

The problem is getting everyone singing from the same songsheet. Everyone has vested interests and want to safeguard their resources instead of use them in an efficient, globally aware manner.

 

[PantherLotus]

this is why pseudoscience is bad for society.

Which part do you think is pseudoscience?

 

[ItAintEasyBeinCheesy]

I dont understand how the entire world can go into debt, that shit just doesn't make sense, it' stupid, the world is stupid. Fuck you world

Your country is in debt to a country who is in debt to another country who is in debt to your country.

 

[marrec]

just finished a research project on solar electricity. It has a long way to go. I installed one myself a few weeks ago. Absolutely useless effeciency. Currently @ 10-18% Needs to be at 40% to make it worthwhile for everyone.
That said heavy investment could make it possible.

But money doesn't magically create scientific breakthroughs. It took many decades and millions of dollars to come up with a workable and reliable vaccine for malaria.

 

[Orayn]

The problem is getting everyone singing from the same songsheet. Everyone has vested interests and want to safeguard their resources instead of use them in an efficient, globally aware manner.

True enough. I'm just putting a little faith in the idea that we really can cooperate if faced with the prospect of imminent doom. Humans may be short-sighted and self-serving, but we're also innovative, determined little bastards when we need to be.

 

[SmokyDave]

I'll file this under 'things that are supposed to have a catastrophic effect on me in the next 20 years'. It's a large file.

 

[Steelrain]

In 100 years there will be no more Japanese people born.

 

[marrec]

Which part do you think is pseudoscience?

The part where punching in current known variables and letting a computer simulate what the economy is going to do two decades into the future is any more than a cute, but hardly scientific, 'study'.

That's the part thats pseudoscience.

 

[teruterubozu]

Prepare thy selves for the Economic Rapture! We plugged in the numbers and interpreted the divine equation of Financial End Times!

 

[Orayn]

But money doesn't magically create scientific breakthroughs. It took many decades and millions of dollars to come up with a workable and reliable vaccine for malaria.

Some scientific breakthroughs can only happen when money is no object. Having a few visionary super-geniuses in the relevant fields also helps.

 

[HarryHengst]

But money doesn't magically create scientific breakthroughs. It took many decades and millions of dollars to come up with a workable and reliable vaccine for malaria.

But money can buy researchers to work on improving things.

 

[Gazzawa]

But money doesn't magically create scientific breakthroughs. It took many decades and millions of dollars to come up with a workable and reliable vaccine for malaria.

Word your right it doesn't.
Forgive me based god
Solar tech is can be used in tandem with wind energy- this is where the future is. If you want to live off the grid thats how its being done now.

 

[SteveWD40]

I'll file this under 'things that are supposed to have a catastrophic effect on me in the next 20 years'. It's a large file.

Nailed it. Doom Merchants be ringing their bells yo.

 

[Orayn]

Solar does have a ton of potential. If we keep making progress on non-toxic, printable cells and drive their prices down far enough, we approach a sort of "solar event horizon" where it's super flexible and cheap enough per watt that you can just start putting it everywhere.

 

[marrec]

Some scientific breakthroughs can only happen when money is no object. Having a few visionary super-geniuses in the relevant fields also helps.

But money can buy researchers to work on improving things.

It's true that money is an important part of the research and development process, but increasing the amount of money given to researchers is far from the only thing we need to speed the process of a breakthrough.

Super-geniuses would do it.

Solar does have a ton of potential. If we keep making progress on non-toxic, printable cells and drive their prices down far enough, we approach a sort of "solar event horizon" where it's super flexible and cheap enough per watt that you can just start putting it everywhere.

That still doesn't solve the infrastructure problem presented with replacing all our current electrical generation with solar. We need battery research to keep step with solar and wind research...

 

[LilZippa]

Psychohistory tells us a fall is near.

 

[eznark]

But money can buy researchers to work on improving things.

It can also buy research to bolster your fundraising, a la Club of Rome's funding of this project.

 

[StealthGoblin]

True enough. I'm just putting a little faith in the idea that we really can cooperate if faced with the prospect of imminent doom. Humans may be short-sighted and self-serving, but we're also innovative, determined little bastards when we need to be.

We are. I'm in favour of GM foods for example, provided laws are put in place to stop companies selling very specific pesticides/fertilizers for a very high price to gouge farmers. There is a place for organic and GM foods. Unfortunately GM got shot down before people actually gave it enough consideration. Ignorance.

 

[marrec]

We are. I'm in favour of GM foods for example, provided laws are put in place to stop companies selling very specific pesticides/fertilizers for a very high price to gouge farmers.

Yes please, we need to stop slowing down the process at every turn because people are afraid of new technology. GM Foods are going to save millions (if not billions) of lives in the future.

 

[Red]

If we start planning now we could be the most organized tribe of the post apocalypse.

 

[marrec]

If we start planning now we could be the most organized tribe of the post apocalypse.

You can be my Piggy.

 

[Dynamite Shikoku]

Aliens might come and save us. Computers wouldnt predict that

 

[Napoleonthechimp]

It isn't the zombie apocalypse that I've been waiting for but it'll do.

 

[Rubbish King]

Your country is in debt to a country who is in debt to another country who is in debt to your country.

But nobody will take the initiative to just reset it all? i dont see why not, is it just greed?

 

[echoshifting]

I'll file this under 'things that are supposed to have a catastrophic effect on me in the next 20 years'. It's a large file.

Pretty much this.

You can be my Piggy.

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