Real Box Office Talk: TDKR v The Hobbit. Worldwide. What say you?

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SCULLIBUNDO

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Time for some real talk.

The real heavyweights of the year.

The Hobbit has my sword.
 
Are we going to have a thread for every single combination of blockbuster vs blockbuster this year?

Besides, it's very hard to imagine anything other than TDKR > Hobbit domestic and Hobbit > TDKR WW. I think there's a chance TDKR beats Hobbit WW since sequels to movies with good WOM usually do better and people might not be as interested in the Hobbit due to it being a prequel.
 
The Hobbit. To be honest, I don't think TDKR is a hyped as TDK. Part of TDK's hype was due to Heath Ledgers death (along with his amazing Joker performance). I think Joker being the villain had more mass appeal than Bane does as well.
 
I think it will be very hard for TDKR to beat the Hobbit worldwide.

Also, when the LOTR films came out, ticket prices were much lower. The Hobbit is going to have 3D ticket prices, so if it sells as many tickets as the LOTR films it's BO will be massive.
 
Avinexus said:
The Hobbit. To be honest, I don't think TDKR is a hyped as TDK. Part of TDK's hype was due to Heath Ledgers death (along with his amazing Joker performance). I think Joker being the villain had more mass appeal than Bane does as well.
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Yeah well the Hunger Games had no hype until like 2 weeks before it opened and it did 153m OW so who knows.
 
Personal movie preference aside, I think TDKR will win this one, besides winning domestic as well. Margin will greater in domestic.

I will also wager that Hobbit will have weaker legs WW. This is purely a whim based guess about the film having less action and more setup, sort of like FOTR.
 
Dark Knight Rises, by 30% more.

The Hobbit won't end up resonating as well as LotR, I fear. Meanwhile, every human being alive I know is salivating for the end of Nolan's trilogy. I can't imagine a world where it doesn't perform better overseas/in other languages than The Hobbit, either.

But yeah...The Hunger Games coming out of almost nowhere to shatter records, and Avatar becoming the success that it did, they both blow my mind and prove to me that anything'll be possible.
 
MuseManMike said:
Who was the guy who said Avatar was only going to make ~100 million? The opposite of what he says.
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Are you sure you're not thinking of PhoenixDark and his prognostication that Avatar wouldn't cross $250m domestically?

Edit: The avatar he had to wear for -- what was it, a year? -- is the best.
 
The Hobbit for sure. I'm sure Batman will be pretty close, but the total gross for all three movies in the Lord of the Rings was about $3 billion. I'm assuming the movie this year and next gross close to $2 billion each.
 
Magnus said:
Dark Knight Rises, by 30% more.

The Hobbit won't end up resonating as well as LotR, I fear. Meanwhile, every human being alive I know is salivating for the end of Nolan's trilogy. I can't imagine a world where it doesn't perform better overseas/in other languages than The Hobbit, either.

But yeah...The Hunger Games coming out of almost nowhere to shatter records, and Avatar becoming the success that it did, they both blow my mind and prove to me that anything'll be possible.
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You realize that RotK made nearly $300 million more internationally than The Dark Knight? And that's with TDK having the advantage of inflated ticket prices.
 
Branduil said:
You realize that RotK made nearly $300 million more internationally than The Dark Knight? And that's with TDK having the advantage of inflated ticket prices.
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That's Return of the King. I was talking about The Hobbit. I think they're entirely different film 'animals' in very different circumstances.

There isn't as much hype for this one among average filmgoers; it isn't the end of a massive trilogy. It doesn't have the swell of two year-on-year stunner films preceding it. It isn't going to be the action-intensive war film that TTT/RotK were...I dunno. I don't think it'd be wise to apply LotR film status to this one with respect to how the moviegoing public will treat it.

edit-

I hadn't thought of two things:

1. The 3D ticket price being much higher.
2. The family-friendlier rating that'll mean more younger audiences will go.
 
shira said:
Hasn't it already been determined that 3D tickets will make it more money. Not a fair comparison.
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That's a silly argument. That was a choice they decided not to take. Higher prices also turns people away. And no, it hasn't been determined. The Avengers is in 3D. Wrath just bombed in 3D.
 
I think worldwide The Hobbit has a broader target audience. It has more appeal among women, kids and older folk.
 
Batman. The Hobbit only if you put the two parts together. DKR is going to do well just because of how well the last Nolan movies were recieved, whereas LOTR is a while back now.
 
Timbuktu said:
Batman. The Hobbit only if you put the two parts together. DKR is going to do well just because of how well the last Nolan movies were recieved, whereas LOTR is a while back now.
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Return of the Jedi was also a while back compared to the release date of Phantom Menace
 
Are people kidding with the $2 billion figures for a Hobbit (part 1) prediction, or for real? That seems...wildly high, if Dark Knight/ROTK only net $1 or 1.1 billion.
 
shira said:
What about those 70mm Imax setups?
Prolly going to watch both on the same screen.
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Nope. Not only will that be in 24fps, but there will likely be an intermission in the middle of the film since it will probably run longer than 2h46m.


artist said:
BS argument, you are making it sound like the 2D release of Hobbit isnt happening.


600K boost confirmed.
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Of course there will be 2D option available. But bringing up 3D as something as 'unfair' is ludicrous.
 
vicissitudes said:
The books, sure. The movie? Not so much. A month before opening people were optimistically predicting 110m and a lot of the general public didn't even know they were making a movie out of the book.
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What are you basing this on? Everyone I knew who read the books (which are a lot of people) totally knew about the movie months and months ago and were very hyped for it.
 
TDKR

Lord of the Rings more well known than the Hobbit, also its been nearly 10 years so I don't see LOTR numbers.
this will not have a ROTK level hype.

Unless TDKR is somehow awful it will do better imo.
 
Magnus said:
Are people kidding with the $2 billion figures for a Hobbit (part 1) prediction, or for real? That seems...wildly high, if Dark Knight only netted $1 billion.
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Two billion for The Hobbit is just a delusional dream of Tolkien fanboys. I have a hard time understanding the reasoning behind such ridiculous predictions.
 
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