Real Box Office Talk: TDKR v The Hobbit. Worldwide. What say you?

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I want to say $1.5 billion for both. I'm more hyped for Hobbit, to be honest. But totally looking forward to TDKR. Heath being dead is a bummer. Would have loved more of his Joker.
 
Scullibundo said:
I wouldn't say significant, but it can add a fair amount, of course. Which is just another reason the people predicting TDKR make me scratch my head.
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The reason ROTK made so much was the built up hype from the last 2 movies. People knew it was the close of a trilogy, so it was an event film. TDKR has the same factor right now, The Hobbit does not. I cant see The Hobbit beating TDKR's WW gross. I can see The Hobbit Part 2 surpassing it though.
 
Big Baybee said:
What are you basing this on? Everyone I knew who read the books (which are a lot of people) totally knew about the movie months and months ago and were very hyped for it.
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My own experiences of course. A lot of people I know didn't read the books but knew about them, and was not aware of a movie coming out. Seemed to be a popular sentiment on GAF as well from what I remember.
 
Magnus said:
That's Return of the King. I was talking about The Hobbit. I think they're entirely different film 'animals' in very different circumstances.

There isn't as much hype for this one among average filmgoers; it isn't the end of a massive trilogy. It doesn't have the swell of two year-on-year stunner films preceding it. It isn't going to be the action-intensive war film that TTT/RotK were...I dunno. I don't think it'd be wise to apply LotR film status to this one with respect to how the moviegoing public will treat it.

edit-

I hadn't thought of two things:

1. The 3D ticket price being much higher.
2. The family-friendlier rating that'll mean more younger audiences will go.
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While it hasn't sold as many copies worldwide as LotR, the Hobbit is still one of the best-selling novels in the world. I don't think it's likely that TDKR will make up the gap in international appeal. And the marketing for The Hobbit will obviously exploit the connections to the LotR films.

Clayton Bigsby said:
The Dark Knight(World Wide): $1,001,921,825

Return Of The King(World Wide): $1,119,929,521

I can see The Dark Knight Rises coming close or exceeding TDK's WW gross. The question is will The Hobbit sustain the same numbers as ROTK. It will be close.
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It's important to remember that ticket prices were much lower when RotK came out. If The Hobbit sells 90% as many tickets as RotK, it will blow its numbers out of the water.
 
vicissitudes said:
My own experiences of course. A lot of people I know didn't read the books but knew about them, and was not aware of a movie coming out. Seemed to be a popular sentiment on GAF as well from what I remember.
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Yea, I work with a lot of women, who recommended the books to me. I had no idea bout the movie until a few months ago right after I finished the second book. This series is super popular at my workplace.

Branduil said:
It's important to remember that ticket prices were much lower when RotK came out. If The Hobbit sells 90% as many tickets as RotK, it will blow its numbers out of the water.
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Blows my mind that ROTK was released in 2003. I was 18 then. Sigh
 
Scullibundo said:
I wouldn't say significant, but it can add a fair amount, of course. Which is just another reason the people predicting TDKR make me scratch my head.
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Avatar had a close to 50M boost from 3D just in domestic. Thats pretty significant.

Scullibundo said:
People also forgetting that the younger kids whose parents will take them to The Hobbit probably won't be taking them to see TDKR.
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And Hobbit's runtime will also mean less shows per day.
I dont think either factor is as HUGE that going to be the deciding factor.
 
I remember a report that patrons are going out of their way to see the 2D shows instead of the 3D shows?

In anyways I am going to assume The Hobbit right now but it could be a toss up. LOTR plays big overseas? I know dark knight was mostly domestic, which is odd for a blockbuster release.

I think it can go either way depending how much pull international has on DKR
 
The deciding factor IMO will be the release period/schedule. Hobbit has a free pass for a couple of months. Besides movies releasing in the holiday season have greater chances of better legs.


Scullibundo said:
I'm pointing out that the 3D advantage over TDKR won't be as huge as it would against other movies.
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I'm strictly taking this discussion as Hobbit vs TDKR. Hobbit will have 3D, TDKR will not. TDKR will have IMAX and so will Hobbit.
 
The Hobbit. No contest.

The things that were appealing about Lord of the Rings will still be in The Hobbit. A beautiful countryside, an adventure among curious folk...

The things that were appealing about Batman Begins and The Dark Knight are gone. It was the villains that people really latched on to. A sequel will have to sell itself all over again.
 
Branduil said:
While it hasn't sold as many copies worldwide as LotR, the Hobbit is still one of the best-selling novels in the world. I don't think it's likely that TDKR will make up the gap in international appeal. And the marketing for The Hobbit will obviously exploit the connections to the LotR films.



It's important to remember that ticket prices were much lower when RotK came out. If The Hobbit sells 90% as many tickets as RotK, it will blow its numbers out of the water.
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They were $.97 cheaper. So domestically, if the same amount of tickets were sold, it would of made about 100 million more. But the decline in ticket sales has to be factored in, along with the fact that ROTK had a lot of repeat viewing because it was the last LOTR film. There is a reason ROTK made significantly more than the other LOTR films. With films with a definitive trilogy, the last film usually is the biggest money maker.
 
Clayton Bigsby said:
They were $.97 cheaper. So domestically, if the same amount of tickets were sold, it would of made about 100 million more. But the decline in ticket sales has to be factored in, along with the fact that ROTK had a lot of repeat viewing because it was the last LOTR film. There is a reason ROTK made significantly more than the other LOTR films. With films with a definitive trilogy, the last film usually is the biggest money maker.
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You have to understand that the reason for this is because most people have had the opportunity to catch the previous chapters on dvd/tv. That is the reason I saw RotK in theatres, even though I hadn't seen the others.

And now all those people who saw RotK are familiar with that universe and will be out for The Hobbit in droves.
 
Slavik81 said:
The things that were appealing about Batman Begins and The Dark Knight are gone. It was the villains that people really latched on to. A sequel will have to sell itself all over again.
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Batman and Nolan have a track record. They don't have to start over. They can have a 2 frame trailer with batman and a title card "Director Chris Nolan" and that would be enough.
 
Clayton Bigsby said:
The reason ROTK made so much was the built up hype from the last 2 movies.
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Yep.

Clayton Bigsby said:
People knew it was the close of a trilogy, so it was an event film. TDKR has the same factor right now, The Hobbit does not. I cant see The Hobbit beating TDKR's WW gross. I can see The Hobbit Part 2 surpassing it though.
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No, no, no... You had it and then you lost it. It was building an audience. A lot of people didn't expect to like the series, but rented or watched on HBO and became theater customers for later entries in the series.
It's like when the second Austin Powers made big money despite no one going to see the first one in theaters. (except me)
 
Scullibundo said:
You have to understand that the reason for this is because most people have had the opportunity to catch the previous chapters on dvd/tv. That is the reason I saw RotK in theatres, even though I hadn't seen the others.

And now all those people who saw RotK are familiar with that universe and will be out for The Hobbit in droves.
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And there will also be people who never saw any of the films in theaters but were exposed to them later.
 
Slavik81 said:
The Hobbit. No contest.

The things that were appealing about Lord of the Rings will still be in The Hobbit. A beautiful countryside, an adventure among curious folk...

The things that were appealing about Batman Begins and The Dark Knight are gone. It was the villains that people really latched on to. A sequel will have to sell itself all over again.
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I don't think it will have to sell itself all over again. The Dark Knight turned Batman into a big deal, I agree Hobbit will do better, but Dark Knight Rises will also cross that 1 billion mark. Besides Bane is an awesome villain, I think he maybe fits the Nolan batman universe even better than Ra's Al Ghul or the Joker did.
 
Scullibundo said:
You have to understand that the reason for this is because most people have had the opportunity to catch the previous chapters on dvd/tv. That is the reason I saw RotK in theatres, even though I hadn't seen the others.

And now all those people who saw RotK are familiar with that universe and will be out for The Hobbit in droves.
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RotK was the only LotR movie I saw in theaters. Caught the others on dvd literally a month before it it was released.
 
While DKR is going to do great numbers, I don't think it'll gain too much for being the last of the trilogy. There hasn't really been a solid build-up to that "last battle" everyone has to see aka Frodo finally destroying the ring or Harry dueling Voldemort or Luke facing the emperor/Darth Vader.
 
Dead said:
Worldwide?

What silly person would say anything other than The Hobbit?
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Hobbit is more popular worldwide than Batman? I thought vice versa...

Doesn't everyone make fun of the LOTR films for just being long walks? I don't think they all want to come back for the Hobbit.

What with the failures of King Kong and Lovely Bones, I don't think people are as hot on Peter Jackson anymore.
 
TDKR won't even top TDK. Bane doesn't elicit the same level of excitement as the Joker to audiences. The Hobbit is fucking timeless, and appeals to all demographics.
 
The Joker is what got them in the door for the 2nd film but the movie delivered and created fans and that is why the sequel will out perform Dark Knight. I really wish people would think about what they are saying when they say it won't even reach Dark Knight numbers. So what it does 900 million, only 100 million better than what Inception did? It just makes no sense.
 
apana said:
The Joker is what got them in the door for the 2nd film but the movie delivered and created fans and that is why the sequel will out perform Dark Knight. I really wish people would think about what they are saying when they say it won't even reach Dark Knight numbers. So what it does 900 million, only 100 million better than what Inception did? It just makes no sense.
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Ledger's performance aside, everyone I know thought it was weaker then Begins.
 
Kak.efes said:
Ledger's performance aside, everyone I know thought it was weaker then Begins.
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Anecdotal evidence is not worth much. Go to rotten tomatoes and you can see the user rating of TDK is 6% higher than BB. I am not using this as evidence as to what film was better, but to say what your friends think may not be a great barometer of the general public's preference.
 
I hope it's a tie! 2 glorious films on the way
 
JaseC said:
Are you sure you're not thinking of PhoenixDark and his prognostication that Avatar wouldn't cross $250m domestically?

Edit: The avatar he had to wear for -- what was it, a year? -- is the best.
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Holy shit.
KuGsj.gif
 
Sort of depends on reviews I think. I would say the Hobbit, but from what I have seen, it could be a disaster. If it is good, it wins. But I sorta think Jackson really fucked this up.

So my prediction, if The Hobbit gets above 60% on RT it wins. If it gets panned as complete shit, then DKR wins. I think DKR will be a good movie either way.
 
I'm biased for The Hobbit, but I'm trying to think of this objectively and I still have to say The Hobbit.

The property is a box office juggernaut.
 
They will both ultimatley gross less than their predecessors.

TDK gained a lot of momentum because of Ledger's death and his stunning performance, RotK because being the finale of a trilogy and being nominated 13 times for the oscars and winning 11 just about 2 months after release doesn't hurt either.

Ultimatley I think 48 FPS will inch out the victory for Hobbit vs superior movie.
 
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