Real Box Office Talk: TDKR v The Hobbit. Worldwide. What say you?
- Thread starter SCULLIBUNDO
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People did not go see LOTR because of countryside or curious folk. They went for the battles.
I went for Liv Tyler.
This is a strange logic to me. Shouldn't people be getting tired of Batman if we're following the same thought process? Batman has been on TV, movies and comics longer than LOTR has existed in book form.
StealthGoblin
Banned
I think The Hobbit will take it comfortably. We've been away from Middle Earth for a while but between then and now more and more people watched LOTR and loved the series. The Hobbit also tends to have more mindshare talking to people.
There are still battles in The Hobbit.
I'm more than biased due to my love of Tolkien, but I really do believe the two Hobbit movies will be exceptionally good. Howard Shore is composing again, Peter has had more time to perfect his craft, Phillipa, Fran and Peter are more aware of what works and what does not work in a Middle Earth movie, the cast is exceptional, the story is brilliant etc. It all screams out awesome sauce.
There are still battles in The Hobbit.
I'm more than biased due to my love of Tolkien, but I really do believe the two Hobbit movies will be exceptionally good. Howard Shore is composing again, Peter has had more time to perfect his craft, Phillipa, Fran and Peter are more aware of what works and what does not work in a Middle Earth movie, the cast is exceptional, the story is brilliant etc. It all screams out awesome sauce.
She annoys me in the movies kinda
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
TDKR will outsell it. Some of you are overselling the Hobbit.
StealthGoblin
Banned
What? Its one of the biggest selling books of all time. Its a book loved by adults and children alike and the film is being made by the same team that made The Lord of The Rings movies.
It truly has a global audience.
Grassclipper
Member
Yeah I'm gonna go with The Hobbit as well. Saying that the LOTR movies came out to long ago or that people are fed up because they already got 10 hours of middle earth is just stupid.
I think that The Hobbit's sense of familiarity are gonna bring people in, we want to experience Middle Earth again.
I think that The Hobbit's sense of familiarity are gonna bring people in, we want to experience Middle Earth again.
Discotheque
Banned
Yeah you lost me there. He's great at design, and I like Pan's Labyrinth. But his English films are turds.
I'm looking forward to his Monster vs. Mechs film because he isn't writing it.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
It's not like they threw out everything Del Toro worked on in pre-production. He's probably all over the look of the films.
Hobbit will take it worldwide, Dark Knight Rises in the US. 48fps will be a non-factor for most people, regardless, outside of maybe some word of mouth that the 3D looks "really nice".
Hobbit will take it worldwide, Dark Knight Rises in the US. 48fps will be a non-factor for most people, regardless, outside of maybe some word of mouth that the 3D looks "really nice".
freenudemacusers
Member
Hobbit will take both foreign and domestic. I am from a future world so I know.
Messofanego
Banned
A bit of anecdotal evidence, don't ya think? I don't know of any kids reading The Hobbit, what with Harry Potter this generation. I'll have to ask, but I doubt you can find a kid who's read The Hobbit.
Blockbusters need all demographics and Hobbit has it. It had a greater chance for success that LOTR due to the storytelling. Kids help to a certain point but if a film is at 3-400 million, everybody's loving it.
That said, I don't think anything is beating DKR domestically. It's got the same things going for it as Hobbit.
That said, I don't think anything is beating DKR domestically. It's got the same things going for it as Hobbit.
Worldwide?
Longterm: The Hobbit.
I think in the first few weeks, TDKR will bring in more, and eventually by week three, it'll loose it's legs. The good news: I think it'll overcome the "third movie curse" comic book adaptions fall prey to. The bad news: it won't have the unanimous praise TDK had before it, even though it'll be good.
Domestic wise, TDKR will kick the samwise out of The Hobbit.
Longterm: The Hobbit.
I think in the first few weeks, TDKR will bring in more, and eventually by week three, it'll loose it's legs. The good news: I think it'll overcome the "third movie curse" comic book adaptions fall prey to. The bad news: it won't have the unanimous praise TDK had before it, even though it'll be good.
Domestic wise, TDKR will kick the samwise out of The Hobbit.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
I don't bet against Anne Hathaway.
Movies of hers I thought should have bombed actually did well. This also has some Bat thing with it.
Movies of hers I thought should have bombed actually did well. This also has some Bat thing with it.
StealthGoblin
Banned
I teach Primary School children. Plenty of them have read or are reading the Hobbit, particularly from Year 4 onwards. Not as many as Harry Potter (annoyingly) but its still a very popular book. Many children know of Hobbits, Orcs, Goblins, Elfs etc. They love that stuff.
Lego LOTR and Hobbit is coming out soon so I think kids will go mad for it. I'd imagine the toy channels will be stuffed with Hobbit things. Replica plastic swords, costumes etc.
SonicMegaDrive
Member
I got my money on TDKR winning domestically and Hobbit beating it worldwide by a somewhat significant margin.
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
Gotta go with The Hobbit. I think Dark Knight will have a little bit better opening, but The Hobbit is sure to have better legs.
frankie_baby
Member
The hobbit by a long long way, both in america and globally
This is a little high for me as I'm thinking in the ballpark of 700 mill. But I'm glad someone is on the same page as me. I've said in the box office threads people are greatly overestimated the draw of the Hobbit. I actually wouldn't be shocked if it leveled off at around 500 million.
Dreams-Visions
Member
Batman will win.
Count of Monte Sawed-Off
un33dab@dpu$$y
Batman will win US, but the Hobbit will win worldwide by a wide margin. 3D also helps because you crazy guys in the rest of the world love the hell out if it and just about any shit released in 3D is guaranteed to do well overseas. And since the Hobbit won't be shit (high hopes, only my hopes for Prometheus are higher), it should bring in a ton.
DonasaurusRex
Online Ho Champ
the hobbit will probably be the biggest of the two, TDK was the apex of the current film run popularity wise. Its gonna be a great trilogy but the hobbit...unless it sucks is going to start a frenzy.
RatskyWatsky
Hunky Nostradamus
The Hobbit.
You realize only two movies have ever reached 1.5 billion right? Titanic and Avatar. There's no pent up interest for The Hobbit like there was for the final part of the LOTR trilogy, it wil be miraculous if the Hobbit reaches that number.
You realize ROTK grossed more than TDK back when ticket prices were low as hell, places like China and Russia didn't even exist in the overseas market and no movie besides Titanic had ever grossed over a billion right?
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
No way. ROTK grossed the most of LOTR movies because it was the final movie in the saga. Batman is the final movie in the Nolan saga. Batman will make more money than the Hobbit.
You realize...whatever I'm not playing this bullshit. 1.5 billion for The Hobbit is not happening.
Diprosalic
Banned
nah people are overestimating TDKR. LoTR 3 made almost double as much what TDK did overseas. and TDKR is not going to do better domestic than TDK.
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
There is no way the Hobbit will match ROTK overall gross.
echoshifting
Banned
Domestic it will be Batman, probably by a wide margin. Worldwide is a complete toss-up. I'll say The Hobbit because I think it will be stronger in the long term, but I could just as easily say DKR which will have ridiculous opening numbers. I agree with those who say it will be extremely close.
StealthGoblin
Banned
People are really underestimating the overseas market in here. We also love 3D and pay through the nose for it.
Hobbit + 3D + Overseas markets = Zomg.
Even if we take Fellowship of The Ring (the lowest earning of the three LOTR movies), that made 63.8% of its money overseas.
The Two Towers made 63% of its money overseas.
Return of the King made 66.3% of its money overseas.
So whatever you think The Hobbit Part One will make domestically, it'll only be approximately a third of what it'll take worldwide. Then factor in emerging cinema markets, the overseas love of 3D (and the subsequent increase in ticket prices) and then the absolute love of LOTR and the desire to want to return to Middle Earth. . .I think it'll be a monster.
Hobbit + 3D + Overseas markets = Zomg.
Even if we take Fellowship of The Ring (the lowest earning of the three LOTR movies), that made 63.8% of its money overseas.
The Two Towers made 63% of its money overseas.
Return of the King made 66.3% of its money overseas.
So whatever you think The Hobbit Part One will make domestically, it'll only be approximately a third of what it'll take worldwide. Then factor in emerging cinema markets, the overseas love of 3D (and the subsequent increase in ticket prices) and then the absolute love of LOTR and the desire to want to return to Middle Earth. . .I think it'll be a monster.
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