• Hey Guest. Check out your NeoGAF Wrapped 2025 results here!

PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread |OT2| This thread title is now under military control

Status
Not open for further replies.
We've had weak jobs reports over the last few months and Obama has been the one on constant offense. If Romney can't harm him on it now, he isn't going to unless things get dramatically worse.
 
Tim-E said:
We've had weak jobs reports over the last few months and Obama has been the one on constant offense. If Romney can't harm him on it now, he isn't going to unless things get dramatically worse.
Click to expand...

Not to worry, I'm sure Romney has an 11th hour "prank" in store that will insure his victory.
 
codhand said:
Not to worry, I'm sure Romney has an 11th hour "prank" in store that will insure his victory.
Click to expand...
They'll hire professionals to take control using force of poll stations in Detroit, Madison, Minneapolis, Chicago, Orlando, Cleveland, Charlotte, and Richmond.

All just in good fun guys!
 
PhoenixDark said:
Good luck with that. There are what, three jobs reports until November? July, August, September; the October report will come out after the election. Unemployment is highly unlikely to drop below 8% unless we just start magically producing jobs at high levels. Indicators are down, consumer spending and confidence are down, and a bunch of people are about to lose UE benefits. Things tend to tick up towards the end of fall as companies prepare for the holidays though, which could help Obama; 202k jobs were created last September for instance.

As Kosmo pointed out, state races are close enough to be tipped in the coming months, and around 20% of the electorate is undecided. They will not break for Obama if we continue getting reports like June's.
Click to expand...
You forfeit your dignity when you resort to citing Kosmo.
adamsappel said:
When you could just use "said"? Jackson is obviously a very smart guy, but PoliGAF isn't wanting for its own William F. Buckley. I was a young English major once, I did my share of pontificating (c wut...), but I bet some people don't bother with his posts because they seem so manufactured, and that's a shame, because he makes a lot of great points.
Click to expand...
Iterate denotes the frequency of my proposition. It's more informative than "said" which does not necessarily convey my emphasis on repetition. So, although I appreciate the suggestion, and the compliment, the consensus indicates my posts are not problematic.
 
Has there been any evidence that the electorate are swayed by BLS reports? Personally, I think the importance of job reports on this election is way overblown.
 
Jackson50 said:
Iterate denotes the frequency of my proposition. It's more informative than "said" which does not necessarily convey my emphasis on repetition. So, although I appreciate the suggestion, and the compliment, the consensus indicates my posts are not problematic.
Click to expand...

You write like me on caffeine.
 
Cyan said:
Right, a reaction based on connotations that are misleading.
Click to expand...

Your interpretation of the connotations are your responsibility, not that of the purveyor.



--- // ---


More mandate stuffs:


However, as the mandate is fully implemented in 2016, the key exemptions are income-based. MIT economist Jonathan Gruber, a key architect of the law, estimates that around 40 percent of the uninsured population is not bound by the mandate.


Here’s how it works. If your income is below the federal poverty line, or you don’t file a tax return, you’re exempt from the mandate’s $695 fine. If we assume that the federal poverty level is about $27,000 for a family of four in 2016, everyone below that level is exempt.

Between 100 and 400 percent of the federal poverty level—under our estimates, that’s between $27,000 and $108,000 for a family of four—Americans will be eligible for the new exchanges. As the below chart illustrates, these subsidies are initially scaled such that no one within this bracket will pay more than 9.5 percent of income for health premiums; the rest will be paid for by taxpayers. Subsidized individuals are subject to the mandate.



For those making more than 400 percent of FPL—approximately $108,000 for a family of four—the subsidies end. But you’re also exempted from the mandate if the cheapest plan in the exchange costs more than 8 percent of your income. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the cheapest bronze plan in 2016 will cost between $12,000 and $12,500 per family. If we take the midpoint of that estimate, and divide by 8 percent, we get $153,125. That is to say, if your income is between 400 percent of FPL ($108,000) and $153,000 or so, and you’re in a family of four, you’re exempt from the mandate.

Here is a chart from the Kaiser Family Foundation that breaks out the exemptions. The grey bars are people who are exempted from the mandate. The large white area in between represents the people who are eligible for the exchanges.



Subsidies will not keep pace with premium growth

Because Obamacare forces insurers to take you even if you are already sick, the law incentivizes many people to go without insurance until they actually fall ill. If the average family plan for four costs $12,250, and a family of four would pay a maximum penalty of $2,085 for failing to purchase insurance (the size of the penalty is capped at that amount), families in the right-most gray area have an incentive to go without insurance and pay the fine. These incentives are even more powerful for unmarried individuals, who tend to be younger and healthier.

Take the average individual, making $32,000 a year in 2016. (I’m optimistically assuming that wages and the federal poverty level grow by 4 percent a year.) For an individual with no dependents, the individual mandate penalty would be $695. Income of $32,000 would amount to about 237 percent of FPL.

This individual would be expected to spend approximately 7.6 percent of income on insurance, or approximately $2,430, or pay the fine. (The remaining premium costs would be subsidized by the government.) Those who are sick will take the insurance; those who are healthy are more likely to take the fine, leading us back to…adverse selection.
Click to expand...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/aroy/20...rk-secret-the-individual-mandate-is-too-weak/
 
As EV would point out, a Moderate Republican is waaayy on the right side of the political spectrum.

So, it seems very unlikely I would even see the room that contains the 'liberal' closet that you speak of.
 
Averon said:
Has there been any evidence that the electorate are swayed by BLS reports? Personally, I think the importance of job reports on this election is way overblown.
Click to expand...
The BLS report is informative because it's a fairly accurate and prominent measurement of economic activity. And there's considerable evidence the state of the economy influences the electorate.
The_Technomancer said:
You write like me on caffeine.
Click to expand...
Strange. I write like me on caffeine.
Diablos said:
Er.

I'm speaking to what Kosmo posted and how it relates to the election.
Click to expand...
Hm, yes. And it seemed to contradict your post last month when you dismissed a similar premise.
 
Cyan said:
What's with the obsession with Obama's college transcripts? Do they think it'll reveal he got into school based on affirmative action, or something?

Also, don't presidential candidates generally release their tax returns? This isn't some bizarre unusual request.
Click to expand...

Not even transcripts here. They are moving further back in time to his applications! lol
 
Romney Town Hall Supporters Fret About Candidate’s Toughness
Romney’s very first question was from an audience member who wanted to know how the nominee would combat attacks in the media — and suggesting the pugnacious Rep. Allen West (R-FL) as a running mate for that very reason.

“We need a fighter,” the questioner said. “I’ve been listening to Allen West talk. He’d make a great VP. He’s a fighter and that’s what we want.”

Romney replied that “all suggestions were welcome,” and said he was thankful that the media now included many friendly outlets he could go through to bypass the major networks and papers. As for Obama, Romney said that “all they’re doing is attacking on every diversion they can come up with,” and said he hoped the president’s campaign would become more substantive.
Click to expand...
“In the debates, I’m sure you’re gonna be hammered about what the other team likes to call RomneyCare, but why don’t you make the point that that’s what the people of Massachusetts put you in there to do and you did what the people of Massachusetts wanted you to do and didn’t force it down somebody’s throat?” he asked.

Romney suggested he generally agreed with the point.

“I sure hope the president brings it up, because I’ll point out the differences between what he did and what I did,” Romney said. He noted that his own law passed nearly unanimously while Obama’s law attracted no Republican votes.
Click to expand...
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...ealth-care-outsourcing-allen-west.php?ref=fpa

Lalalala.
 
Sudden thought: Romney's campaign tactic of calling Obama "the real outsourcer" is a terrible idea. Outsourcing is clearly a word tied to big business fat cats like Romney, not super-liberal-commies like the Pres.

Every time the word "outsource" comes up, the audience will reflexively see Romney sitting in a room with the sad-looking HR rep, holding that little blue folder of doom. I would recommend for the Romney campaign to avoid using that word at all costs.

Remember, Rovian tactics really only work pre-emptively, not in a reactionary sense. "No u!" looks terrible; "Obama is an outsourcer" only works if he didn't call you that first.

This shit is hilarious.
 
Has the Romney campaign won a news cycle yet? It seems all they do is react, react, react. If it's not something from the Obama camp (Immigration, Taxes, Bain Capital), it's from their own camp (The mandate isn't a tax, 20 questions of a Romney spokesman saying nothing on Romney's position on Immigration).
 
Averon said:
Has the Romney campaign won a news cycle yet? It seems all they do is react, react, react. If it's not something from the Obama camp (Immigration, taxes, Bain Capital), it's from their own camp (The mandate isn't a taxes, 20 questions of a Romney spokesman saying nothing on Romney's position on Immigration).
Click to expand...

Not once. Last thing he won was a primary.
 
Loudninja said:
Romney Town Hall Supporters Fret About Candidate’s Toughness


http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...ealth-care-outsourcing-allen-west.php?ref=fpa

Lalalala.
Click to expand...

Reminds me of those October townhalls in 08 where voters were flabbergasted McCain wasn't fighting Obama. Romney accurately realizes this race is about the economy, which will likely doom Obama no matter how many times he changes the subject. The problem is that he seems to think defining himself is not necessary. He's letting Obama define him constantly
 
Romney can't win because his campaign is NOTOBAMA.

Romney hasn't proposed anything concrete of any concern to people. How will he get the economy to improve faster? By cutting the deficit and cutting government jobs? lol. By doing the same thing Bush did and extending the tax cuts? lol.

Republicans are running a campaign of "yeah, but we're not Obama" as if that will convince people to switch sides. The Republicans are not giving people are viable alternative. It's all rhetoric, failed ideas of the past, or just "trust us."

Sorry, but the Dems ran the same campaign back in '04. The exact same campaign. It failed then and it will fail now.
 
Black Mamba said:
Romney can't win because his campaign is NOTOBAMA.

Romney hasn't proposed anything concrete of any concern to people. How will he get the economy to improve faster? By cutting the deficit and cutting government jobs? lol. By doing the same thing Bush did and extending the tax cuts? lol.

Republicans are running a campaign of "yeah, but we're not Obama" as if that will convince people to switch sides. The Republicans are not giving people are viable alternative. It's all rhetoric, failed ideas of the past, or just "trust us."

Sorry, but the Dems ran the same campaign back in '04. The exact same campaign. It failed then and it will fail now.
Click to expand...

We were in the middle of a war in 04 and the economy was decent. Totally different situation now: a war is winding down, and the economy is in a ditch.
 
Loudninja said:
Romney Town Hall Supporters Fret About Candidate’s Toughness


http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...ealth-care-outsourcing-allen-west.php?ref=fpa

Lalalala.
Click to expand...

wait, he demands that Obama is more substantive!? hahahahaha


This is a mess of Romney's own making, he has no leg to stand on because he doesn't stand for anything and lacks any integrity to take a forceful position on big issues. He's nothing but a rich coward.

I am starting to think that Romney has just been betting on his path to the WH by his looks, upbringing, and weird sense of entitlement w/out having to do the necessary homework.
 
Averon said:
Has the Romney campaign won a news cycle yet? It seems all they do is react, react, react. If it's not something from the Obama camp (Immigration, Taxes, Bain Capital), it's from their own camp (The mandate isn't a tax, 20 questions of a Romney spokesman saying nothing on Romney's position on Immigration).
Click to expand...

It helps that Obama is in a position to speak to a national audience through the presidential pulpit. I think citizen united like spending is going to be horrible this cycle (it already is), but no amount of money is going to ever out right surpass the ability of the incumbency pulpit. When you have that kind of power all the challenger can do is react really unless the president is already on the defensive with some larger public controversy.

At this point I don't fear for Obama losing the election outside of an economic collapse or a HUGE scandal, I think the DNC and Obama's SuperPAC should start focusing more heavily in congressional and senate races, Obama already appears to by making narratives that not only affect Romney, but the opposing party platform in general.
 
If Obama's an outsourcer of American jobs, then he once again proves how shitty a socialist he is.
 
Black Mamba said:
Romney can't win because his campaign is NOTOBAMA.

Romney hasn't proposed anything concrete of any concern to people. How will he get the economy to improve faster? By cutting the deficit and cutting government jobs? lol. By doing the same thing Bush did and extending the tax cuts? lol.

Republicans are running a campaign of "yeah, but we're not Obama" as if that will convince people to switch sides. The Republicans are not giving people are viable alternative. It's all rhetoric, failed ideas of the past, or just "trust us."

Sorry, but the Dems ran the same campaign back in '04. The exact same campaign. It failed then and it will fail now.
Click to expand...

Yeah, but Dems were convinced Kerry would win then too. Hope is a powerful thing.
 
Oblivion said:
If Obama's an outsourcer of American jobs, then he once again proves how shitty a socialist he is.
Click to expand...

The fact that he is the first president in forever to oversee a numerical decline in government jobs on his watch should preclude that absurd slur.

We'd be looking at 7% and lower unemployment without the lost million government jobs.
 
ToxicAdam said:
Your interpretation of the connotations are your responsibility, not that of the purveyor.



--- // ---


More mandate stuffs:




http://www.forbes.com/sites/aroy/20...rk-secret-the-individual-mandate-is-too-weak/
Click to expand...

It is still better than the system we had without the mandate, which has a higher percentage of people uninsured, a greater degree of adverse selection, and places greater financial burden on the middle class for funding the health costs of the uninsured.

This doesn't even cover the other parts of the bill.
 
Allard said:
It helps that Obama is in a position to speak to a national audience through the presidential pulpit. I think citizen united like spending is going to be horrible this cycle (it already is), but no amount of money is going to ever out right surpass the ability of the incumbency pulpit. When you have that kind of power all the challenger can do is react really unless the president is already on the defensive with some larger public controversy.
Click to expand...

That's makes sense. The Romney campaign looks eerily similar to where Kerry campaign was at in summer '04. They spent nearly the entire Summer reacting to the Bush campaign and the infamous Swift Boat attacks. Switch Kerry with Romney, Bush for Obama, and Swift Boat with Bain Capital.
 
PhoenixDark said:
Reminds me of those October townhalls in 08 where voters were flabbergasted McCain wasn't fighting Obama. Romney accurately realizes this race is about the economy, which will likely doom Obama no matter how many times he changes the subject. The problem is that he seems to think defining himself is not necessary. He's letting Obama define him constantly
Click to expand...

That's because Romney's situation is akin to a logic puzzle that you screwed up on -- after crossing out everything he's not allowed to do, there aren't any boxes left for him to fit into. Every time he tries to lean towards moderation, he gets pushback from the skeptical Republican base, who frankly don't much like him in any case. But he knows at the same time that hewing to the Tea Party line will alienate major swathes of independents.

Romney was a corporate consultant, as you can see with his Massachusetts campaign. (What do you do when you're a consultant and your background doesn't match your client's? Stretch and twist your resume as much as possible to explain why your history prepares you to serve their needs.) But what do you do as a consultant when your client has two representatives to deal with who clearly hate each other and always disagree on everything? You talk in truisms, find scapegoats they can both agree on, and never commit to any actual specifics that one side might approve of and the other side might disapprove of. He does have a plan. It just may not be the right one for politics.
 
PhoenixDark said:
We were in the middle of a war in 04 and the economy was decent. Totally different situation now: a war is winding down, and the economy is in a ditch.
Click to expand...


Irrelevant. You have to actually provide an alternative if you want to sway voters. As long as Mitt continues to run on Obama and not what he will do, he has no chance.

The economy is far better than it was in 2008 when Obama came to office. Unless the economy goes backwards, the economy will not hurt Obama anywhere close enough to hurt his reelection chances. People are more cognizant than you give them credit for here.

People are more than willing to vote out Obama, but they need an actual choice. mitt romney is not providing one. When the time comes, these voters will see him as a trust fund baby from New England buying his way into the presidency with no new ideas and completely out of touch with the middle class.

Plus, he's a robot with no swag. This shit matters even if it shouldn't. He's Kerry part II.


Yeah, but Dems were convinced Kerry would win then too. Hope is a powerful thing.
Click to expand...

Yeah, so you're saying the Repubs have false hope. I agree. Then again, the smart brass knows he a sacrificial lamb.
 
Black Mamba said:
Irrelevant. You have to actually provide an alternative if you want to sway voters. As long as Mitt continues to run on Obama and not what he will do, he has no chance.

The economy is far better than it was in 2008 when Obama came to office. Unless the economy goes backwards, the economy will not hurt Obama anywhere close enough to hurt his reelection chances. People are more cognizant than you give them credit for here.

People are more than willing to vote out Obama, but they need an actual choice. mitt romney is not providing one. When the time comes, these voters will see him as a trust fund baby from New England buying his way into the presidency with no new ideas and completely out of touch with the middle class.

Plus, he's a robot with no swag. This shit matters even if it shouldn't. He's Kerry part II.




Yeah, so you're saying the Repubs have false hope. I agree. Then again, the smart brass knows he a sacrificial lamb.
Click to expand...

Kerry lost due to one state, a fact that is overlooked when people make the argument that an unloved protest candidate cannot possibly win a general election; if not for a few thousand votes (and Ken Blackwell, if you're into conspiracy theories) in Ohio he would have won the election.

The economy sucks, and Obama's numbers with white working voters are horrible; that's bad news in states like Ohio. Romney does not inspire anyone, but is currently seen as presidential material by most viewers; he has yet to be disqualified in the eyes of most people, as Dukakkis was.

Unless the economy completely turns around in the next four months, Obama will have a hard time winning. The map clearly benefits him right now but I still expect this to change as we receive more and more bad economic news.
 
Black Mamba said:
Romney can't win because his campaign is NOTOBAMA.

Romney hasn't proposed anything concrete of any concern to people. How will he get the economy to improve faster? By cutting the deficit and cutting government jobs? lol. By doing the same thing Bush did and extending the tax cuts? lol.

Republicans are running a campaign of "yeah, but we're not Obama" as if that will convince people to switch sides. The Republicans are not giving people are viable alternative. It's all rhetoric, failed ideas of the past, or just "trust us."

Sorry, but the Dems ran the same campaign back in '04. The exact same campaign. It failed then and it will fail now.
Click to expand...
You vastly misunderestimate American people's incredible ability to be total dumbasses. They realize the GOP got them into the ditch, but half of them are willing to give them the keys again, despite hearing Romney repeat the same GOP platform. If what you said is true, Obama and Romney wouldn't be neck and neck. American voters are idiots.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

Football Thread 2017/18 |OT2| Fractured but Ox
166 167 168 169 170
8K
560K
Hideous Snake replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher
338 339 340 341 342
17K
2M
UselessNapkin replied
Something wrong with the Funny post thread?
0
2K
Amakusa replied
  • Locked
Football Thread 2017/18 |OT| Relegated to Community
397 398 399 400 401
20K
1M
D4Danger replied
|OT| Post-March Wrestling Thread
2 3
132
19K
NickFire replied
Top Bottom