PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread |OT2| This thread title is now under military control

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Chichikov

Member
No, it's not.

Look, you guys are caught up in the political sport. Frankly, that's all noise. The bottom line is that the economic systems practiced in the western world for the past 30 years are unsustainable. Neither candidate is proposing to change that.

I'm not talking crazy let's-go-back-to-the-gold-standard stuff here, I'm talking about the fact that in the past 30 years wages for everyone but the top have stagnated. That's three decades of both Republican and Democrat control of the Executive, Congress, and Senate in various combinations, all with the same trajectory.

Those three decades have seen people with stagnating wages replace income with debt. Bubbles occur when the folks at the top figure out how to expand debt dramitically, and the burst when risk catches up to them and debt expansion stagnates.

The way out of this is a massive writedown of debt. A reset. That should have happened last during the financial crisis, but "too big to fail" trumped moral hazard. The bottom line there? A combination of massive campaign funding from the financial industry and the revolving door between major financial institutions, the Fed, and the Treasury made sure those that actually cause these bubbles and pops didn't feel any pain.

Have things improved on the financial side of the world? MF Global, Liborgate, JP Morgan Chase... all in the past year. You tell me.

Like I said, you guys are caught up in the sport of it all. You read a government report on unemployment, job creation, etc, turn it into a talking point, and move on. By the time these supposedly impartial reports are all revised away from their initial rosy numbers you've moved on. The reality is that this economy is fucked.

Anyway, I've ranted enough. Going out to have some drinks with my friends and soon to be fiance (shh... she doesn't know yet).

Peace to all of you!
I agree with a whole lot of what you said.
And yeah, this thread focuses on the rather meaningless horse race, but at least for me, it's just for fun.

I do disagree with you on a couple of big things though -
  1. I do believe that there is a meaningful difference between the parties, I hate the both, passionately, but policy wise I can see a lot that set them apart.
  2. I don't think the US economy I fundamentally fucked, I think it's political system is. But if we ever sort that out, I think the challenges this country faces are very manageable, it's just that our politicians care mostly about getting elected, so at all times, you have half of our political system rooting for America to fail (and sometimes actively working toward it).
 
I'm kinda wondering, if Obama wins, how will things go over the next several years? Unless a miracle happens, Republicans will keep the house, and they'll likely only increase their control over the 2014 midterms. This will tie Obama's hands, and I find it hard to believe Republicans won't be able to take the White House in 2016, campaigning on 6 years of "ineffective" Democratic rule.

So it's like, what's the point? We can have weak Democratic control for a few more years then Republicans take over? Then weak Republican control for another 8 years?
 
I'm kinda wondering, if Obama wins, how will things go over the next several years? Unless a miracle happens, Republicans will keep the house, and they'll likely only increase their control over the 2014 midterms. This will tie Obama's hands, and I find it hard to believe Republicans won't be able to take the White House in 2016, campaigning on 6 years of "ineffective" Democratic rule.

So it's like, what's the point? We can have we have weak Democratic control for a few more years then Republicans take over? Then weak Republican control for another 8 years?

I think some of the best things can happen when Obama doesn't have to run for a 2nd term and Republicans don't have to run against an incumbent
 
The "both parties are the same on economic issues" meme is so stupid it's really not worth addressing. If someone is confident enough to make such broad, factually inaccurate statements there's no point in responding
 

RDreamer

Member
I'm kinda wondering, if Obama wins, how will things go over the next several years? Unless a miracle happens, Republicans will keep the house, and they'll likely only increase their control over the 2014 midterms. This will tie Obama's hands, and I find it hard to believe Republicans won't be able to take the White House in 2016, campaigning on 6 years of "ineffective" Democratic rule.

So it's like, what's the point? We can have weak Democratic control for a few more years then Republicans take over? Then weak Republican control for another 8 years?

Yeah, but how long can congress gridlock things? They've got like a 17% approval rating now. You really think they can keep up doing nothing until 2016?
 
Well, I guess we can hope for a second term Obama that'll kick ass and take names like campaign Obama and a House willing to give a little.

But still, I can only see the House giving on things like the Bush tax cuts. Dream Act? Maaaaybe. More drastic legislation? Fuck no.
 

werks

Banned
Obama guarantees victory.

image.jpg

“We’re going to win this election,” Obama said. “Were going to put this country on the right track.”
“He invested in companies that have been called pioneers of outsourcing," Obama said, rain streaming down his face. "I don't want pioneers in outsourcing. I want some insourcing. I want to bring companies back."

In Eric Cantor's District.
 

Vyroxis

Banned
And what exactly is Obamas plan on bringing jobs back to the states? I haven't heard either of these chowderheads come up with anything yet, unless I missed something somewhere.
 
And what exactly is Obamas plan on bringing jobs back to the states? I haven't heard either of these chowderheads come up with anything yet, unless I missed something somewhere.

Are you fucking kidding me? The Jobs Act alone is more things than Mitt Romney has purposed.
 

Tim-E

Member
And what exactly is Obamas plan on bringing jobs back to the states? I haven't heard either of these chowderheads come up with anything yet, unless I missed something somewhere.

The American Jobs Act Obama proposed would end tax incentives for outsourcing and offer a 20% tax credit to companies who bring jobs back to the US.
 

Opiate

Member
So there doesn't seem to be any good, recent, empirical evidence of voter fraud. Not that I could find in my brief search. I did find some interesting things. For example , a significant amount of people think that there is some sort of voter fraud. The states that want to impose voter ID laws claim the fears of voter fraud will lead to voter disengagement. This is absolutely false, though, based on the data:





But here's the most damning data against stringent voter ID laws based on the argument that it enhances voter confidence and therefore voter participation:



Ansolahehere, S., & Persiiy, N. (2008). VOTE FRAUD IN THE EYE OF THE BEHOLDER: THE ROLE OF PUBLIC OPINION IN THE CHALLENGE TO VOTER IDENTIFICATION REQUIREMENTS. Harvard Law Review, 121(7), 1738-1774.

And while there are no recent peer-reviewed empirical studies on voter fraud (these things take time and money), there is a good non-peer reviewed breakdown here: http://www.tnr.com/article/the-great-voter-fraud-myth

Its sourced by another journal article I read, so that lends a lot of credibility to the piece and the author. I wish I had found something more definitive either way.

Thank you very much for taking the time to do this, VanMardigan.
 
And what exactly is Obamas plan on bringing jobs back to the states? I haven't heard either of these chowderheads come up with anything yet, unless I missed something somewhere.

Are you fucking kidding me? The Jobs Act alone is more things than Mitt Romney has purposed.

Ignore Vyroxis, he likes to play the part of contrarian so he can pretend like he's superior to conventional wisdom, when in reality, he doesn't even take time to research the things he's concerned/interested with.

It's...cute.
 

Vyroxis

Banned
The JOBS act was great, and I'm hopeful that it will slow down outsourcing and create easier avenues to start new businesses and build new factories here. However, thanks to the significantly lower cost of building am item overseas the tax incentive may not cause them to bring jobs back at all. And that's were the real meat of the problem is, so many jobs are gone that it will take than one piece of legislation to turn things around.
 

werks

Banned
The JOBS act was great, and I'm hopeful that it will slow down outsourcing and create easier avenues to start new businesses and build new factories here. However, thanks to the significantly lower cost of building am item overseas the tax incentive may not cause them to bring jobs back at all. And that's were the real meat of the problem is, so many jobs are gone that it will take than one piece of legislation to turn things around.

So... too little, too late?
 
Actually, the cost of building things overseas is starting to approach the cost of building things domestically, and the skilled labor, IP protections, and judicial system available her often justify the added cost.

Not to mention the convenience.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
I'm actually surprised that Obama ad is getting such positive responses. I thought it was a good ad to be sure, but I guess I don't see why it's considered a "Chicago-styled" ad.
 

Dram

Member
Cheney: If There's Another Sept. 11, I Want Romney In The Oval Office

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2012/07/13/156725890/cheney-if-theres-another-sept-11-i-want-romney-in-the-oval-office?ft=1&f=1001&sc=tw&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Former Vice President Dick Cheney at a Wyoming fundraiser he hosted Thursday for Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney (via MSNBC's First Read):

"Sooner or later there is going to be a big surprise. Usually a very unpleasant one. Whether it's 9-11 or the other kinds of difficulties or crises that arrive, they always do. ...

"When I think about the kind of individual I want in the Oval Office in that moment of crisis ... that man is Mitt Romney."


According to The Associated Press, "Romney called Cheney a 'great American leader' — and didn't mention former President George W. Bush in a 20-minute speech to a country club reception."
 
Hey guys, here's a thought - Romney-Cheney.

The JOBS act was great, and I'm hopeful that it will slow down outsourcing and create easier avenues to start new businesses and build new factories here. However, thanks to the significantly lower cost of building am item overseas the tax incentive may not cause them to bring jobs back at all. And that's were the real meat of the problem is, so many jobs are gone that it will take than one piece of legislation to turn things around.
Well, considering Republicans have no interest in letting that shit pass.
 
Cheney: If There's Another Sept. 11, I Want Romney In The Oval Office

I think I would prefer the guy who will get the terrorists before they get over here and blow shit up.

And you know damn well that if there were some sort of awful tragic event like that under Obama's watch the Republicans would blame him but not if it were their guy. Then it would be time for everyone to come together.
 
I think I would prefer the guy who will get the terrorists before they get over here and blow shit up.

And you know damn well that if there were some sort of awful tragic event like that under Obama's watch the Republicans would blame him but not if it were their guy. Then it would be time for everyone to come together.
You want to really get pissed off?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/obama_bush_first_term_job_approval.html

Following the 9/11 attacks, Bush's approval rating peaked at 89.8% (October 14 2001).

Following the death of Osama bin Laden, Obama's approval rating peaked at a whole 52.6% (May 25 2011).

4-18-12-photo.jpg
 

RDreamer

Member
There's no way footage of that rainy Obama speech doesn't end up in an ad. That's just way too powerful of an image to not utilize.
 

kehs

Banned
Obama sure loves that pandery speech-in-rain-cause-I-care-more-about-politicking-than-I-do-about-your-tax-dollars-paying-for-my-dry-cleaning-from-said-rain speech in the rain shtick.
 

Diablos

Member
Obama's face is about the same, it's just that his hair has really gone gray.

This has to be the luckiest President in history, considering the shit hand he was dealt. Fucking look at that guy.
Luckiest? He's had to deal with the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, and the most partisan Congress and Republican Party in eons... I wouldn't call that luck.

Late on November 7th we'll be able to confirm if what you say holds true.
 

Al-ibn Kermit

Junior Member
Obama's face is about the same, it's just that his hair has really gone gray.

Like most regular women, I'm sure most male politicians dye their hair to avoid stray white strands, as that makes people think that you're suddenly getting too old for the job.

In that case, choosing when you "come out" with your natural white hair color can be a strategic decision to demonstrate just how stressed and hardworking you are at that moment in your career.

That's my theory anyways.
 
Luckiest? He's had to deal with the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, and the most partisan Congress and Republican Party in eons... I wouldn't call that luck.

Late on November 7th we'll be able to confirm if what you say holds true.
That he's no worse than even odds to winning a second term in the face of all of that might indicate luck.

In actuality, it's all swag, baby.

Al-ibn Kermit said:
Like most regular women, I'm sure most male politicians dye their hair to avoid stray white strands, as that makes people think that you're suddenly getting too old for the job.

In that case, choosing when you "come out" with your natural white hair color can be a strategic decision to demonstrate just how stressed and hardworking you are at that moment in your career.

That's my theory anyways.
Bush went from brown to grey from the beginning of his presidency to the end.

bush_in_2000_vs_bush_in_2008.jpg


Even the suit did.
 

Opiate

Member
I think the most rational explanation for the apparent aging of presidents is that most take the office at an age (early 50s) where aging is rapid.

I think people who take care of themselves can look fairly similar from age 30 all the way up to 50, if they're lucky; virtually everyone sees dramatic changes from 55-65.
 
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