Your predictions for The Big Three at the end of The Next Generation.

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Sony seems to be in a dangerous position of letting one lose turn into two. If they are determined to try to squeeze more profit out of the PS3 next year instead of launching PS4 they could accidently doom their console business and make less money in the long run. Basically, Sony seems to be short sighted.
 
As multiplats take over more and more while the importance of exclusives keeps going down it puts Sony and Microsoft in a weird position. They're releasing two consoles around the same time with roughly the same power and for the most part the same games. Unless one of them comes up with something completely out of left field they're effectively releasing the same console. Since Microsofts warchest is infinitely greater than Sonys they have the opportunity to basically "buy" the generation by undercutting the price, since that would be the main differentiator. Ironically Sonys saving grace might be Kinect 2, if Microsoft decides to bundle it with every console then the added cost would allow Sony to stay competitive on price.

In the end the outcome could be similar to the current gen. This time Sony won't be starting off with an enormous lead from the previous gen but they also won't be a year behind and $599 so it evens out a bit.
 
AniHawk said:
i think this is the gen where nintendo just can't keep up anymore. it'll start them on their path to the niche market they were originally destined for at the end of the gamecube generation.
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Good thing about Nintendo is that they'd manage to be profitable even with a niche market, due to being conservative and well managed.

Xbox / Playstation's luck is that they are within bigger companies which can throw money down a pit. At least until shareholders / other divisions demand the bleeding stops...

There's a real possibility that Sony will go bankrupt in the medium-term, whether this is during next gen or not I don't know.
 
OTIX said:
As multiplats take over more and more while the importance of exclusives keeps going down it puts Sony and Microsoft in a weird position. They're releasing two consoles around the same time with roughly the same power and for the most part the same games. Unless one of them comes up with something completely out of left field they're effectively releasing the same console. Since Microsofts warchest is infinitely greater than Sonys they have the opportunity to basically "buy" the generation by undercutting the price, since that would be the main differentiator. Ironically Sonys saving grace might be Kinect 2, if Microsoft decides to bundle it with every console then the added cost would allow Sony to stay competitive on price.

In the end the outcome could be similar to the current gen. This time Sony won't be starting off with an enormous lead from the previous gen but they also won't be a year behind and $599 so it evens out a bit.
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Microsoft executives have not been very fond of the color red as of late.
 
Haliela said:
The amount of Microsoft and Xbox hate is hilarious on this board. Good lord people... you'd think they sacrificed your first born.

Sony fumbled the ball. It sucks I know. The PS2 was fantastic but let it go. Microsoft took advantage of Sony self destructing and destroyed them at the marketplace this gen. With Sony's constant stream of terrible business decisions, it's laughable at this point to be putting them ahead of anyone. The blind bias going on in this thread is pungent enough to choke a donkey.

Sony isn't the OMG HARDCORE GAMERZ WHITE KNIGHT. SOOOOO HARDCORE.
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Are you on crack or is your reading comprehension that poor? Everyone is saying MS will come out on top, which they will.
 
TunaLover said:
I didn't expect NeoGAF picked Nintendo for 1st place in sales. I'm surprised.
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It's not a sure bet, but that's where the smart money is, same as smart money was on Sony at the end of last gen. Sony made basically every mistake imaginable and still essentially tied with Microsoft because their "lead" was so large.

Nintendo doesn't employ the same huge advantages Sony had, but are less prone to the crippling mistakes, lol.
 
Zeal said:
Are you on crack or is your reading comprehension that poor? Everyone is saying MS will come out on top, which they will.
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I wouldn't be so sure, due to a few reasons:

1- They were never first, so the burden of proof is on them.

2- This time Nintendo launches first, making 1st place for MS even harder unless their console is really compelling.

3- The Wii U is much more likely to get 3rd party games than the Wii was.

4- The economy will be worse than during this gen, so people are less likely to buy multiple consoles. On the Wii U you may be able to get many 3rd party titles as well as a much better 1st party offering than MS. Nintendo's console will probably be cheaper and games too, and the online should be free. Great money savings all around if you buy Nintendo (provided they do get the 3rd party games).
 
Nintendo are good at controlling costs, I doubt they'll flop. I expect the sales of the Wii U compared to the Wii will be like the 3DS compared to the DS.

Microsoft has a lot of momentum at the moment with Live, it will succeed.

Sony are the most likely to have a flop with their obvious financial troubles. I hope they do good though.
 
AniHawk said:
i think they're sorta gonna blow their first year like they did with the 3ds. and this time they won't have anything to come to their rescue since they'll have used wii fit, nsmbu, and nintendo land right at the start.
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They still have Mario Kart U and Smash Universe though.
Also that's assuming that Nintendo will not find a system seller this gen, I think Nintendo Land could be that title, with big legs.
 
Sony- gets 1st or 2nd. Combines with google soley for handheld market. Wont have as big of an attraction for people to buy it like it did with blu ray. vita stays alive doing slightly worse than psp over its lifetime. Ps3 continues to sell. Overtakes xbox360sales.

Wildcards: adds a kinect function and tablet. Bundles vita nd ps4 to get vita into hands.


Ninty- survives on mario alone. Has a fractional amount of draw compared to wii. Goes gamecube all over world. 2nd place.


Microsoft- 3 rd place. A lot of current xbox lovers move to sony console.

________________________________

Apple- keeps its hands in mobile market. Gets their app games on tv. Casuals love. But. Doesnt hurt big 3.

Oouya- tries hard but dies. No oouya 2. Proves profitable though. Cant beat valve or apple in the niche they are aiming to carve out

Valve- main competition is apple. Bouth vying for that digital space on a tv.
 
It all depends on where they stand in the Great Video Game Industry Generations Cycle (yeah). See :

Microsoft:
Going by the "Third Generation's Sales Always Sucks" rule (see N64, Dreamcast and PS3), I would say that the NextBox will fail horribly compared to the winner.
So, 3rd place.

Nintendo:
They started a new cycle with the Wii (their new NES) so, going by the "Second Generation is Always God-like" rule (see Snes and PS2), I would say that the WiiU will be a huge succes software and sales wise.
So, 1st place.

Sony:
They will either
- start a new cycle and be successful (going by the "First Generation is Always a Success" rule (see NES, PS1, Xbox)
or
- they enter the fourth generation of the cycle and they could be out of the market, going by the "Fourth Generation is your Last" rule (see GameCube, after wich nobody except Nintendo can resurect).
So, 2nd or OUT.
 
Sony's name has absolutely no cache to it in the US anymore. Not in TVs, not in stereo equipment, and now not in video games. With so many outlets for video games circa 2013 and beyond, and no non-game hook like Bluray was last time, I have absolutely no idea what would cause a large number of people to buy a Sony console. They need to be both creative and risky to grab some mindshare back.

Microsoft is in a little better position because they have Xbox Live, which is what keeps a lot of people there, and they also have interesting potential for some Windows integration, but since they've always been shy about linking the Xbox and PC too heavily before, they might shy off again, we'll see.

Nintendo, I have no idea.

But overall I think all three will play a much smaller role in video games in its entirety. It's all about diversity now. Consoles, PC, browser, phones, tablets, handhelds, social networks, etc. The days of several giants slugging it out for dominance are over. People play games everywhere, on so many different devices.
 
Sony finally puts their money to good use and actually creates a more powerful console than Microsoft and multiplats do look slightly better with higher resolution, AA etc but due to the cheaper pricepoint of Microsoft's console it sells better and generates more hardware and software sales.

That is until Sony finally gets some good 1st party games out that utilise the power of the PS4 enough for them to become system sellers. Sony uses their Gaikai streaming but it doesn't REALLY take off due to licensing issues in Europe, it does ok in the US.

Microsoft focuses on integrating all their hardware and services so the tablet, phone, kinect 2 and xbox work together and have one integrated service. The focus isn't heavily on Kinect anymore but they still make one and it has it's share of decent games and casual fans due to the (fairly) cheap xbox.

Nintendo's 3rd party support is comparable to that of the Wii and their 1st party games sell well but even Nintendo can't make innovative use of the Wii U's abilities and with the casual market not really being appealed to the hardware sales drop off fast and don't do that well to begin with.
 
The only way I can see Sony surviving is when they keep focussing on the "hardcore".

Microsoft will probably launch a full scale assault on the casual market with their follow up to Kinect. That combined with an even bigger focus on providing paid services and million seller first and third party titles such as Halo & CoD. They always go for the big money, and going by the strategy they utilise now, that does seem to be the way they are going.

Nintendo will partially lose it's identity. They will hover between casual and hardcore. Casual gamers and the mainstream public will stick to their iPad's, iPhones & Smartphones while the hardcore will choose PS4 or Durango because of the extra horsepower, potentially better online and better multiplatform titles.

As for Valve, it would be wise if Sony struck a deal with them. They have vision, the hardware knowledge and ambition. The things Sony seems to lack ATM.

Differentiating is key. There is no room for me too products anymore. Risks will be taken, money will be lost, fanboys will be disappointed.

These are all facts because I pulled it out of my arse.
 
KlotePino said:
Sony finally puts their money to good use and actually creates a more powerful console than Microsoft and multiplats do look slightly better with higher resolution, AA etc but due to the cheaper pricepoint of Microsoft's console it sells better and generates more hardware and software sales.
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What money? Sony is running on fumes right now.
 
OTIX said:
What money? Sony is running on fumes right now.
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Suppose that's true, wish they'd saved their money with Vita but they've proven they're willing to sacrifice profit on hardware sales, I'm pretty sure they sold the PS3 at a lose or break-even at first and the Vita probably isn't making them much money either with all that expensive tech in there.
 
KlotePino said:
I'm pretty sure they sold the PS3 at a lose or break-even at first .
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Pretty sure? The lost a MASSIVE amount of money on every sold console in the beginning. Took them several years to break even.

Ah well, time for some guesses:

1. Microsoft. they got America in their hands. People has spent to much on Xbox Live to change to another system.

2. Sony. Close second. Learned much this gen but continues to have problems in the states. Owns most of Europe.

3. Nintendo. You shouldn't count out Nintendo but.... I can't see the Wii owners buying a new console already, and they will fail to attract the hardcore gamers. Won't sell bad though, to many Nintendo old schoolers out there for that to happend.
 
AniHawk said:
i honestly don't see a world where nintendo tops the next generation. maybe in terms of consoles + handhelds, but if you're judging it that way, they came out on top during the n64/psx gen too.

their nearly two-decade problems with third parties persist, and the wii u is this weird thing that nintendo doesn't seem to know how to present. more than that, its online structure will lag behind its competition quite noticeably.

i think this is the gen where nintendo just can't keep up anymore. it'll start them on their path to the niche market they were originally destined for at the end of the gamecube generation.
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Considering their year head start I have a hard time betting AGAINST them, especially if Sony and MS go for much more expensive hardware. Nintendo crushed the competition this time even with MS having a big head start, I can't see giving the market leader a year head start ending well for the competition.
 
KlotePino said:
Suppose that's true, wish they'd saved their money with Vita but they've proven they're willing to sacrifice profit on hardware sales, I'm pretty sure they sold the PS3 at a lose or break-even at first and the Vita probably isn't making them much money either with all that expensive tech in there.
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They initially sold the PS3 at a ~$200 loss IIRC.
 
Hydderf said:
Microsoft:
Going by the "Third Generation's Sales Always Sucks" rule (see N64, Dreamcast and PS3), I would say that the NextBox will fail horribly compared to the winner.
So, 3rd place.
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Dreamcast 3rd Sega gen?

Master System, Genesis, Saturn and Dreamcast. So DC is 4th gen, aka THE DEAD.
 
gadwn said:
1. Microsoft. they got America in their hands. People has spent to much on Xbox Live to change to another system.
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Betting on America too hard may be a mistake. Europe will probably overshadow America in the same way as America did Japan within the next couple gens, even though it's an open question which system will ride that to the top.
 
I only own Sony hardware and I'm pretty sure if they keep going the way they are going now, they'll be in 3rd place again next gen, though I wouldn't say they are going to leave the gaming market completely. They still have a negative image after the hacking incident and even though they are pretty generous with their store offerings compared to MS/Nintendo, it doesn't seem to have much effect. They are led by really stubborn people, much to our annoyance.
 
AniHawk said:
i honestly don't see a world where nintendo tops the next generation. maybe in terms of consoles + handhelds, but if you're judging it that way, they came out on top during the n64/psx gen too.

their nearly two-decade problems with third parties persist, and the wii u is this weird thing that nintendo doesn't seem to know how to present. more than that, its online structure will lag behind its competition quite noticeably.

i think this is the gen where nintendo just can't keep up anymore. it'll start them on their path to the niche market they were originally destined for at the end of the gamecube generation.
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I do think Nintendo is the most vulnerable. Particularly, in an era where gaming is just much more prevalent across a myriad of devices; many of them mass-market and easily justified in a computing sense. Whereas, Sony and Microsoft can diversify into other areas, Nintendo can not or perhaps will not.

You also have to ask yourself where the software or the next break-out hit is going to come from? Many start-ups are flocking to iOS because of low start-up costs whereas Nintendo are still mandating licensees operate out of registered business premises.
 
If Nintendo gets a good online infrastructure up then easily in first place. If not then basically where they were now with the Wii but probably a bit less in terms of sales.

Microsoft will continue to just exist, they seem to keep on catering to US customers with services and are slightly moving away from actual gaming and becoming more of an entertainment hub. So pretty much the same place, dead in the east, somewhat alive in the west.

Sony is running on fumes right now and if they release another console and it is received exactly like how the PS3 was initially then I could see it being their last gen. The vita right now is pretty much a failure, the psp only had legs in japan, and the PS3 while doing much better now had a horrendous first few years. I don't know how long they can keep it up if they don't change their priorities/strategy. If it's not a bomb and Sony actually has a good launch and applies their old IPs and etc then they could become first.
 
I can´t see Nintendo winning next gen. It will be between MS and Sony due to a very important thing that they both have. One word comes to mind, convergence. For instance one makes a SEN/Live account and they can access these accounts from any Sony device or Windows device. There´s already a huge competition to get people to use money on their entertainment in their spar time which is not much. Consoles will play games and do everything else, from streaming movies/tv to music and Apps. It´s about all in one devices, much like smart phones. And since one would have a SEN/Live account one would be able to stream and access all of their contents everywhere. Sony buying Gekai MS offering to hire/hiring Onlive staff is a first step towards a total convergence future.

Nintendo only have a console and a handheld. I can´t see them compete on this large level.
 
Sony or Microsoft first. Really hard to predict wich one. I'll say Sony if they have great launch with good price and launch near nextbox but whoever is 1st the second one won't be far behind. Microsoft can give Sony a hard ass time if they go for full moneyhat mode but I don't know if any of the 3 will go for that.

Wii U will be the third but still have great numbers. Nowhere near Wii numbers tho. I really don't see Wii U getting the same audience back that they had with Wii and I think that is the audience Nintendo will be going for. If they will really go after the HD twins audience they will need some sick exclusives outside of their 1st party stuff. Of course the 1st party games will reel a lot of people in too.

And for those that say Sony will be dropping out and stuff, no chance in hell. They being third place is certainly a possibility but even then I think they would be having some great numbers and I really can't see them doing as big mistakes as with PS3.
 
How does anyone figure that Nintendo will be first next gen? The current wii was huge and even it, as of now, trails both ps3 and 360 in sales per month. The WiiU would have to be just as big with the casuals as the Wii was and last i checked, when Wii was first announced back then even most of the hardcore gamers (all consoles) were excited which really isnt the case with the WiiU. Itll have a great start yes, but its pretty much alone and even that....with games like Last of Us and Halo4, even the current gen is gonna give it a run for its money let alone next gen.
 
AniHawk said:
i think they're sorta gonna blow their first year like they did with the 3ds. and this time they won't have anything to come to their rescue since they'll have used wii fit, nsmbu, and nintendo land right at the start.
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But Nintendo no longer hypes games until the very few months before their launch, we have no idea what they have in store for next year, and even when next year comes, and even when E3 comes, we'll still be in the dark about some things, they are obviously saving very important IPs for that next christmas. And I really doubt they didn't learn their lesson about price with the 3DS, which was the main reason for the slow start.

Basically this post:

GopherD said:
I disagree. Nintendo will be saving big guns to try and disrupt the HD launches next year. Its first year will be Nintendo fans buying the thing anyway. But whatever they can bring to bear will be done for Christmas 2013.

This time next year will be massively epic. Two HD launches at Christmas, with the usual glut of launch games. Sony will have first party exclusives out the wazoo, MS will have a few and buy some third party properties as well, Nintendo will save its biggest IP to up against it.

EPIC I tells ya.
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Is indeed going to be epic, because all of them will come out with full force.
 
Squidofman said:
there will no longer be a big three by the end of the next console generation.
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The question is, which of the companies fall?

Microsoft had a really short term business strategy with the Kinect, and decided to put resources into it instead of branching out their own IP's (except for the two-three bread and butter ones of Halo, Gears, and...Forza?). Sony is starting to make a come back, investing money in exclusives and making really cool stuff, but sadly cool stuff always doesn't sell like it should. Nintendo was golden, but looks like they could do a true 180 and just lose it next generation with the Wii U, for multiple reasons.

My bet is Sony recovers, Microsoft stays the same, and perhaps Nintendo bows out of the console market with the Wii U.
 
Nintendo

The route they are going with the Wii U is a dangerous one. They're trying to cater to the hardcore non-Nintendo-die-hard crowd, but so far they've got nothing good to show except a muddy zombie game and a AC3 port that reportedly looks worse than the PS3 version(Which probably looks worse than the 360 version). Sure, they'll sell a couple dozen or more to the Nintendo diehards, but I think the casuals have moved on to other platforms. In 2006 there were no app stores, facebooks, smartphones or tablets and the Wii was something genuinely new - the Wii U definitely is not. The $249 price point is very attractive, though, but that won't help if there is no interest. Another concern is digital distribution - do we have a confirmation that all games will be available through the eShop? I think we're seeing a trend where the consumer expects software to be downloadable, I for one am done with putting a piece of plastic inside my console every time I want to play a game.

Nintendo will do okay but there will be no new Wii, that time has passed and the money's been made.

Sony and Microsoft

So far we only have rumors and speculation on Sony and MS new consoles, but if there is a significant hardware jump there will always be that hardcore who are willing to jump in because of "OMG graphics", but only at an attractive price point. More than 400 dollah for your console, and you're out. Both MS and Sony will probably focus on a pretty powerful machine but also some kind of gimmick, maybe even the same gimmick - I see Kinect stuff is in the rumors alot these days. What's more is that the third party exclusive is dead, but if there is a significant jump in hardware from the WiiU to PS4/Xbox8, the Nintendo system will be left in the dust just like the Wii third party wise. Engines scaling between two generations always ends with both versions suffering. Sony just bought Gaikai, and MS are rumored to be establishing a similar streaming service. These are interesting because people can just try a demo without having to download it, just a few seconds and the demo is starting. You'll then be able to download the full game. I think accessibility will be a major factor next gen. People hate waiting, and the less you make them wait, the more games they'll buy for your console.

MS and Sony will be neck-and-neck throughout the generation.

Edit: Actually didn't answer the question.
 
Sony & Microsoft -Both will continue to be the dominant way for hardcore gamers to play next gen. Considering what we know about them, it's way too early to say what affect it will have on consoles or PC gaming in the future.

Nintendo - I think there's a good chance they'll go with a console/handheld hybrid after the Wii U & 3DS have run it's coarse.

PC - If consoles don't change their digital distribution models, I could see the PC having a strong resurgance in the future. Stronger than it ever has been before. One of the benefits of PC currently has been console ports and DD, so we'll have to see how that plays out.

Android/Apple - I think by the end of next gen we'll see more and more of these devices that also hook up to a TV like Ouya. It may help Nintendo.
 
MadOdorMachine said:
Android/Apple - I think by the end of next gen we'll see more and more of these devices that also hook up to a TV like Ouya. It may help Nintendo.
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Ouya will be DOA. First, there's no reason to buy one since it will only have the same games as your phone and tablet anyway. Why won't it? Because it's running on Android, which means piracy should be easy. Rampant piracy = no third party support.
 
Microsoft will buy Valve in a bid to make the biggest application store available.

Apple will purchase Sony strictly for the purposes of entering the tv market and do nothing with their line of video game consoles.

And finally, Facebook will buy out Nintendo in order to get more quality games on their social network.

This all leaves Sega with the opportunity to release the new Dreamcast, whose flagship title is the sequel to Sonic 2006. Unfortunately by the time this new console is released they would have parted ways with Sammy on the one condition that the company would take the rights to Shenmue in order to solely release Shenmue-themed pachinko machines.
 
Haliela said:
The amount of Microsoft and Xbox hate is hilarious on this board. Good lord people... you'd think they sacrificed your first born.

Sony fumbled the ball. It sucks I know. The PS2 was fantastic but let it go. Microsoft took advantage of Sony self destructing and destroyed them at the marketplace this gen. With Sony's constant stream of terrible business decisions, it's laughable at this point to be putting them ahead of anyone. The blind bias going on in this thread is pungent enough to choke a donkey.

Sony isn't the OMG HARDCORE GAMERZ WHITE KNIGHT. SOOOOO HARDCORE.
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Half this thread is filled with "Sony is doomed" posts and there has been a huge Sony backlash on this forum for years with jokes about "giant enemy crabs" and "Five Hundred Ninety nine US Dollars!", among other things. Every company gets that, especially when they screw up.

We always have fanboys from each group complaining all day about how their company is being persecuted and the whole forum (including the mods) is filled with fanboys from whoever they hate/fear the most this week. The truth is fanboys can't see other fanboys from their group (since they agree with them) and would only be happy if the whole forum was a big circle jerk dedicated to their beloved company/bashing the competition. There are already forums for that out there.
 
If Ms doesn't fuck up their hardware I can see them being slightly ahead in sales. They have dev friendly systems and may end up with 3rd party"deals". Sony will end up with better games as their studios are unmatched. Both systems at same price can have similar sale results, assuming they launch in same time period. It just hard to see another PS2 or Wii juggernaut selling machine in current economy and beyond. Unless, someone fucks things up big time, Kinect standard controls, $599, or something like that.
 
Predicting how each of the big three will perform is pretty much impossible at this point. Way too many variables.

Anyway, the most likely based on expectations and rumors:


Microsoft: Their next console will become the ultimate multimedia box MS always wanted the Xbox to be. Depending on the sales, they will dominate the living room. Strong Kinect integration. Strong third party support. Best development tools once again. May have a memory amount advantage. Paid online that may not have a clear advantage over the competition. MS will use some of its muscle to get some exclusive/timed exclusive content since Sony aren't in a position to compete and Nintendo won't even try. They will strengthen their first party studios. Many of their new games will be oriented to casuals. May release before Sony. Big in the US/non-existant in Japan once again.

Nintendo: Wii U won't have the impact the Wii had. The idea behind it is not as clear or intuitive as the Wii-mote and won't make people's imagination go wild. Nintendo has also managed to somehow screw up its unveling twice. Will benefit from its lower/much lower price point, releasing one year earlier, Nintendo's popular franchises and people upgrading from their Wiis (HDTVs now). Less features than the other two. Worse online, but free. Unknown level of third party support due to hardware limitations and control method. Heavily downgraded ports at best. A few unique exclusives. Tons of ports from PS360. Closer in features to the other two than the Wii ever was but memory constraints could be a problem.

Sony: PS4 will be a super powered PS3, except that its GPU will be its strong point. Will try to compete with MS as a multimedia box but will always play catch up. Will offer a few new features no one will care about. Some kind of response to MS' Kinect and Nintendo's new pad that won't be half as popular. Likely to offer the best performance when it comes to visuals. Amount of memory could be a problem. Strong third party support. Strong first party lineup. Variety. All kinds of experimental stuff and big cinematic games. Lower first party sales once again as a result. Bad financial position. Brand confidence still recovering (they pulled a fairly good comeback with the PS3, but Vita).
 
No idea in terms of the whole race 1st 2nd 3rd.

I suspect Microsoft could take 1st if they make the right moves. Who's to know if they do that though.

Nintendo will continue to make lots of profit regardless of market share or mindshare.

Sony? Not sure. I think there's a slight chance they'll be Dreamcasted. You'd think their software is strong enough to be a profitable little business on the next and next next Xbox. Or even like Sega go third party and release games to suit the platform.
 
Microsoft taking first is a huge longshot. They simply don't have the global presence that Sony or Nintendo have shown, and its really doubtful they will make any headway in Europe, Japan, or emerging markets.

I say Nintendo or Sony are the only ones capable of being first.
 
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