NaM
Does not have twelve inches...
I'll bet you anything that if Valve were to put a crowbar on the main page of the steam store alongside a "Coming Soon" your indifference will disappear just like that.
Gabe Newell: Big companies won't stay relevant.
- Thread starter Archie
- Start date
I'll bet you anything that if Valve were to put a crowbar on the main page of the steam store alongside a "Coming Soon" your indifference will disappear just like that.
Clay Davis
Member
oh no doubt, I'm still not at the indifference stage yet with half life and maybe I never will be due to how much I love the series.
I have very high hopes that they will reveal and release the game this year. okay, maybe that's too optimistic. they'll probably just reveal the game this year and that will be enough for me.
SneakyStephan
Banned
Dude, DLC EVERYWHERE...
I remember valve calling episodic content 'DLC', the idea was to buy games in small parts and only pay for what you were using.
That idea got fucked up the ass and turned into the current 'DLC' where you pay full price for the game then extra for the content that was cut out.
There are a few companies like telltale that still get it right.
OT: I see it becoming much harder for kickstarter projects to get off the ground as kickstarted becomes more and more diluted and crowded.
That's a good thing though imo, community driven filter to weed out the talentless/mediocre crap/clones before much money can be spent on them.
If nothing else, gaming will nudge back a bit towards 80-2000s era where there was still room for niche genres, there will be more quality, standards for gameplay will go back up and the Big fish will have a lot stiffer competition than they do now.
The 'less focus on marketing and distribution' sounds like music to my ears even if everything else he mentioned never happens.
The more budget is put back into development instead of trying to convince people to buy ANYTHING blindly the better for us gamers and the better for the people who actually make games and don't just latch on for the ride.
Honestly Im glad Valve gave Halflife a good break, they were fixing to become a one trick pony like many developers these days who just bring out sequel after sequel and never does anything else. Be great to see a new one but if they announced a new Ip instead I wouldnt even be mad.
Psychotext
Member
Whilst patents exist as a huge fucking stick to beat people with I imagine the big companies will do just fine.
GoddyofAus
Banned
I think the cynics need to accept that Gaben may very well be right. What is stopping developers/publishers with fairly open minds like 2K and Valve doing a kickstarter on their projects of a figure like maybe 500,000 dollars and the idea is if you throw like 10 bucks at the kickstarter to contribute, that could help bring down the RRP price of the game set by the publishers later.
So basically, you spend 10 bucks now to save 20 later, or something along those lines. All that stands in the way is exactly what Gaben referred to somewhat diplomatically: narrow minded, selfish deep pocket big business like EA and Activision.
So basically, you spend 10 bucks now to save 20 later, or something along those lines. All that stands in the way is exactly what Gaben referred to somewhat diplomatically: narrow minded, selfish deep pocket big business like EA and Activision.
Movie studios still need to offer something to the consumer and they have done that. You need deep pocket large capital firms to make $200+ million bets. I expect the same for whatever super-large games publishers survive because there remains a market for 'big bet' games. Small teams simply do not have the fundraising ability to feed the market a 'tent-pole' like Halo or Call of Duty.
As long as a company as a diverse portforlio instead of mainly relying on a few games for their income (ie activision with cod, wow and skylanders) then they should be okay for the future. Closing down companies and not making new IP is bad for everyone, at least for the long term.
Well, Newell said several years ago that the future looked like crowdfunding. Now the thing is obvious, this guy really has talent to see the future.
I love Kickstarter and I understand it as a way of giving the chance to not so famous people or simply hard to pay projects. But when I see people like molineux, that could search for an investor so easily, using kickstarter, I get mad.
By the way, about the things that Gabe says, I think this was quite obvious. Big, traditional and slow companies are going to be fucked. I'm thinking in Nintendo, of course.
I love Kickstarter and I understand it as a way of giving the chance to not so famous people or simply hard to pay projects. But when I see people like molineux, that could search for an investor so easily, using kickstarter, I get mad.
By the way, about the things that Gabe says, I think this was quite obvious. Big, traditional and slow companies are going to be fucked. I'm thinking in Nintendo, of course.
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Yes, Gabe's amazing ability to tell the future by suggesting the PS3 was a lost cause and a total nightmare and Sony should do a do-over because it was doomed. Here we are, and Sony's made good and PS3 exclusives look beyond most if not all of the competing console's.
He says a lot of silly shit. With Kickstarter, its all sunshine and rainbows now, but the lack of accountability is going to rear its ugly head in a big way, just as its slightly beginning to with the first wave. Community spirit is great, but theyre also often run by not very smart people and groundless hype. Not saying big companies have the answers as they employ enough idiots that make poor decisions, but they arent going away and the relative safety and accountability they provide shouldnt be overlooked.
He says a lot of silly shit. With Kickstarter, its all sunshine and rainbows now, but the lack of accountability is going to rear its ugly head in a big way, just as its slightly beginning to with the first wave. Community spirit is great, but theyre also often run by not very smart people and groundless hype. Not saying big companies have the answers as they employ enough idiots that make poor decisions, but they arent going away and the relative safety and accountability they provide shouldnt be overlooked.
alexandros
Banned
"The PS3 is a total disaster on so many levels"
Result: The PS3 struggles for much of the generation, squanders gigantic PS2 lead and mindshare.
"I'm betting that by Christmas of next year, the Wii has a larger installed base than the 360. Other people think I'm crazy."
Result: Wii is the top-selling console this generation.
"Investing in the Cell, investing in the SPE gives you no long-term benefits. There's nothing there that you're going to apply to anything else. You're not going to gain anything except a hatred of the architecture they've created".
Result: Sony ditches the Cell for x86.
"Windows 8 is a catastrophe for everyone in the PC space"
Result: Windows 8 tanks, PC sales decline during the holiday period for the first time in decades.
So yeah, just like Pachter.
Nothing you say makes sense.
1) Yeah, there are other methods of funding games. Even for indie devs. Still, those means are not available or good for everyone. Some get support from publishers but there's a limited number of publishers with a limited number of projects they are willing to fund at any given time with their own kind of bias as to what kind of games get funded (something like FTL probably doesn't seem interesting to any publisher). Taking a loan is also possible, but if you're not in a good enough financial situation, that might not be too wise.
2) No one is an expert when they start anything. Just because someone might get their start from Kickstarter doesn't mean they will be completely clueless or incompetent at running their own business. Most people will figure it out as they go.
Sony seems like a bad example as they are having all sorts of financial issues and have had to close a lot of studios down last year....
Yeah, I can see all of those except the Cell one. Now everyone is all about GPGPU, and Cell programming basically made you get used to GPGPU before there was GPGPU.
nephilimdj
Member
Isn't he also in danger?
Valves main profit seems to be steam and hes scared of windows 8 store.
Kinda deluding himself on all of his fanbase switching to linux.
Valves main profit seems to be steam and hes scared of windows 8 store.
Kinda deluding himself on all of his fanbase switching to linux.
angular graphics
Banned
Actually he said nothing but the truth.
Truth. Customers weren't looking for a $599 console and developers were sure as hell not looking for Cell's architecture. The latter is not even debatable. (I think
)Truth. He's not talking about developers of PS3 exclusives, he's talking about multiplatform developers.
Truth. Exclusives aside to this day this is an existing issue. Less than on launch but still an issue.
For what is worth I'm sure even internally at Sony the PS3 is far from what they had hoped it would be.
I find it funny that people think you can't make an epic long AAA game with a small budget.
Once you cut the fat and have a focused small team of dedicated people, you can do a LOT with 8-10 million dollar.
Wasn't Witcher 1 made with just $6Million? Witcher 2 was a little bit more than double that. Sure in Poland wages are less than the US, but still, especially Indie devs are often times willing to sacrifice their own salaries in order to get the game in good shape. In addition, having all the money you need beforehand, makes every sale after the game release a net success for you.
Star Citizen / Wasteland 2 / Double Fine Adventure / Project Eternity.... I wouldn't doubt that these games will be able to directly compete with AAA games once they release.
Once you cut the fat and have a focused small team of dedicated people, you can do a LOT with 8-10 million dollar.
Wasn't Witcher 1 made with just $6Million? Witcher 2 was a little bit more than double that. Sure in Poland wages are less than the US, but still, especially Indie devs are often times willing to sacrifice their own salaries in order to get the game in good shape. In addition, having all the money you need beforehand, makes every sale after the game release a net success for you.
Star Citizen / Wasteland 2 / Double Fine Adventure / Project Eternity.... I wouldn't doubt that these games will be able to directly compete with AAA games once they release.
Sentenza
Member
I think people should actually read what he said instead of trying to twist it.
He never claimed we won't have big companies in the future.
He predicted that many companies that are big today are too slow to adapt and they will not be able to stay relevant when the "next big things" will come out.
He may be right or completely wrong, but nowhere in his answer he suggested a future without big players.
It was never supposed to be. Kutaragi's Sony was trying to Define the direction of technology, not follow it.angular graphics said:The latter is not even debatable. (I think
Which was always going to be a risky proposition, regardless if they did it any number of different ways than it happened.
dragonelite
Member
Jep but marketing also is a big part of budget sometimes even eclipsing development cost 1:3 if you heard some of the budget microsoft has for marketing Halo and Gears.
This is absolutely true, but things like this do happen. Here is the order of events when a major sea change occurs in an industry:
1) What defines a successful business model begins to change.
2) The larger companies are much less capable of adapting to this change. Their expertise lies elsewhere, and they are large enough that changing course would be difficult even if they were eager to.
3) As the business models change, new, smaller companies succeed and grow rapidly. The larger companies stagnate in comparison.
4) If the business change is significant enough and goes on long enough, the new, smaller companies become large themselves, and either swallow the old traditional companies or drive them out of business.
So this isn't really about the idea of huge companies going away. It's about the currently established ones doing so, to be replaced by newer, smaller companies which were tuned to the current business environment.
Antiwhippy
the holder of the trombone
Same thing happened in the music space for quite awhile now. Of course there are still the big studios and big label backed artists, but they are becoming less relevant.
It's probably good then, that these games have hype building for years before they are finished then. Enough so that the gaming world can talk about them every couple of months and keep them relevant.
Oculus Rift has no marketing whatsoever but the Internet hype machine has made it one of the most desired products in gaming.
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Heres another Gabe corker for those holding his opinions in high esteem:
"The amount of time it takes to get a good multicore engine running, the Xbox 360 might not even be on the market any longer. That should scare the crap out of everybody.""
Now we're looking at an 8-core Xbox sequel, and the most powerful games on PS3 really took those SPU's and ran with them. Dude is totally fallible and can't call the future dead on a lot of the time.
"The amount of time it takes to get a good multicore engine running, the Xbox 360 might not even be on the market any longer. That should scare the crap out of everybody.""
Now we're looking at an 8-core Xbox sequel, and the most powerful games on PS3 really took those SPU's and ran with them. Dude is totally fallible and can't call the future dead on a lot of the time.
Where is my ep3 Garry? =(
TellTale is literally the only major case of episodic games really working
Sentenza
Member
If I'm not missing something they are also pretty much the only ones trying at this point (which I'm totally fine with. Not a fan of this formula).
I'm not a huge fan of it, but I think it works for them. I'd like to see more experimentation with it, mind. There's potential to create a unique experience for the player and community with episodic content. I don't think Telltale take advantage of that much, and just use the episodic structure for speedy turnaround on content, i.e. they can charge us £20-ish for the whole season, and deliver 1/5 of that experience almost immediately, then stagger it as they finish the game off. It feels more like a marketing thing than something which is necessary for the game.
I'd be more interested in a game that was divided up strictly for artistic merit (i.e. finished beforehand, and deliberately dripped out on a weekly basis, for example), and how the developer would use that to do something unique for the player and the community.
angular graphics
Banned
So what if it has 8 cores? 7 years after that quote, a huge number of games still barely use more than 2-3 cores.
The challenges he's talking about are hardly a thing of the past. He was right.. again
Can Crusher
Banned
Yeah...I don't think so. Valve wishes for a lot, and Gabe is no nostradamus.
Sentenza
Member
...How is what Valve "wishes" relevant to any extent, right now, in this thread?
Oh wait, I probably know the answer: you didn't read shit and posted the first random thing that in your head was going to make you sound edgy.
So people can make wrong/inexact predictions? Even smart ones? Who would have thought.
We should totally beat the crap out of these useless bastards, you know, for being merely human and shit.
Glass Rebel
Member
This post is dedicated to Pie and Beans who has shown how smart Gabe is.
FatalMuzza
Banned
Hehe, I wonder if everybody had the crap scared out of them.
Also all this thinly disguised Win8 hate. 20% decline in PC sales due to it being unusable? Has he somehow missed the tablet revolution and the ever growing momentum towards appliance computing? Microsoft certainly hasn't, that's why Win8 is the way it is, a transitionary step towards an appliance model.
I'm not sure if the man is living in a bubble or he doesn't have much respect for the intellect of those that would read his idiotic ramblings.
Can Crusher
Banned
What the hell are you talking about? Do you have some formal affiliation with Valve/Gabe or do you happen to have a vetted interest in what Gabe said, because you sound mad.
Cinema and big films didn't disappear even though Youtube, VIMEO, well the Internet exists. Big hollywood companies stayed relevant even though these days you have 200 channels delivering content in smaller and cheaper ways + infinite channels on the internet.
It's this notion that evolution has to do with letting go of what came before when in reality it's about adding to what we had.
Gabe was wrong about the PS3, and Gabe was wrong about the 360. It's not that he was wrong in predicting that there are other exciting routes, but that he was wrong in the demise of a model that doesn't attract him anymore.
I just don't see any reason why big companies won't stay relevant. But whatever
Sentenza
Member
Nope. I'm Italian, I live in Italy and I work in a gym. I'll let you make any guess about how close to Valve I can be.
Do you mean annoyed? Yes, I guess I am, because reading silly statements spouted as if they were the smartest thing around is cringe-inducing.
And that's in NO WAY related with what he said and -even more relevant- to what you wrote in your previous post.
You talked about "Valve wishing a lot", as if their wishes were in any way relevant to what this topic is about.
How? he said it was a mess to code for, and a lot of developers seem to agree with it. Of course many of them don't like to state this openly, exactly because of rabid fanboys overreacting and taking it as a personal insult, just as the Newell's episode proved.
I don't see what's so hard to believe about them losing their relevance and being replaced by other companies quicker to introduce/adapt novelties. Most of those big companies are *already* losing money at a steady pace today, because their business model is so borked it's not even funny.
You are making the same mistake many others already did in this thread, and assuming that Gabe Newell said "There won't be big companies in the future". He didn't.
He said many companies that are big today could not be capable to adapt, he never claimed we will see a future where companies will embrace communism and we all will dance holding our hands in circle and singing "Kumbaya".
So your previous post is pointless, and this other one completely misses the point anyway.
Dr. Kitty Muffins
Member
I dont think it will swing as wildly as everyone claims. I suspect somewhere in the middle is the sweet spot.
Can Crusher
Banned
So my point is pointless because I showed you how in another market Big Companies survived a changing market, and not only did they stay relevant but they are still the main producers of content.
And what you are telling me, and Gabe is telling me is that these big companies unlike others in other markets will bit the bullet as other smaller companies take their spots and become huge companies themselves (exactly what Gabe wants from Valve).
See the problem here, is that although one or other company will be replaced, in terms of relevance, that's all that will happen.
So not only wasn't my post pointless and the other one missing the point, but I exactly pointed to a market where the defacto big companies that existed before the taking off of T.V, the Internet, etc and not only still exist to this day, they still remain relevant to say the least.
We can look at electronics too for example, Valve itself is looking at a way to crack the hardware market, and is putting all it's chips in this belief that yes these former big companies won't stay relevant. Well I would say that although there will be space for great success to be achieved by new and smaller companies, history doesn't demand that a new small company be the one to disrupt the market.
Look at Apple, look at Samsung. This on the level of consumer electronics, as I've already mentioned the content creators in entertainment.
Yes, Google did happen for example. But on the level of content creators, what is out there? An ever expanding market. It's not the same.
That was, IN EVERY WAY related.
And what you are telling me, and Gabe is telling me is that these big companies unlike others in other markets will bit the bullet as other smaller companies take their spots and become huge companies themselves (exactly what Gabe wants from Valve).
See the problem here, is that although one or other company will be replaced, in terms of relevance, that's all that will happen.
So not only wasn't my post pointless and the other one missing the point, but I exactly pointed to a market where the defacto big companies that existed before the taking off of T.V, the Internet, etc and not only still exist to this day, they still remain relevant to say the least.
We can look at electronics too for example, Valve itself is looking at a way to crack the hardware market, and is putting all it's chips in this belief that yes these former big companies won't stay relevant. Well I would say that although there will be space for great success to be achieved by new and smaller companies, history doesn't demand that a new small company be the one to disrupt the market.
Look at Apple, look at Samsung. This on the level of consumer electronics, as I've already mentioned the content creators in entertainment.
Yes, Google did happen for example. But on the level of content creators, what is out there? An ever expanding market. It's not the same.
That was, IN EVERY WAY related.
That is really interesting. Here is mine: "the average lifespan of a company in the Fortune 500 today is 15 years."
bonus fact: the oldest company was founded in 705 AD, and is a hotel in Japan.
Sentenza
Member
Jesus, again?
No, your post was pointless, because, you know, it didn't make any point.
It was just a dumb statement completely unrelated to what this thread is about.
"Valve wishes a lot".
What the hell was it supposed to mean?
How was it relevant to the topic, to ANY extent?
I'm not telling you anything, beside to read what he actually said instead of trying to imagine it by guessing.
that's it.
I'm not trying to claim he's necessarily right, I wouldn't be outraged if he's proven wrong, I'm not disgusted by the idea that he could talk in his own self interest (quite the opposite, I would take it as a given to some extent).
Then, of course, on a personal note I find somehow hilarious how people are reacting:
"WHAT? NO, IT CAN'T HAPPEN. HE'S CRAZY!".
Why? It's already happening. Most of the big companies in this industry today are sinking ships that can barely strive to break even and are losing value and capitals year after year.
Sony is worth a tenth of what it was 10 years ago, Microsoft still is rich as fuck but their Xbox business was barely capable to repay itself, EA is losing money at a steady pace for almost 6 years right now and so on.
All you need to do is remove 2 from Activision and there is nothing left.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
I'm sorry, I've never heard of Duke Nukem, what are you referring to?
Not true. You might want to read up on the tyrnanny of the clock (the change in how people experience time), the history of money, the history of language and writing (and how its developement fundamentally changes brain structure from birth), the development of civilization, etc. The idea that 'big company structure' is part of human nature is a scary thought.
Besides, the modern corporation has only been around for 150 years +/-, and companies in general since Roman times.
quote of the thread.
Stallion Free
Cock Encumbered
Who will be the first to implode after THQ?
Clay Davis
Member
my money is on platinum. most of their games, while they've been behind some of the defining games of this generation, they have been sales bombs. the two exclusives for nintendo might just push them over the edge if / when they bomb.
Can Crusher
Banned
Because Gabe Newell's statement is a bit to all encompassing, like always. I say they wish for a lot in saying that it has happened in the past that they make full prediction and they only get it partially right.
I say wishes because it's in Valve's best interest. And if their predictions are constantly only partially right, that means to me that it's not as much about trying to predict something as it is about trying to make it happen. Not to mention that Valve trying to break into the hardware market, and into the OS market to basically offer a similar product that these other big companies are doing is ironic.
They complain about Microsoft wanting to go the Apple way and closing the market a bit in their platforms. But they do the same shit, the cut that Valve wants to avoid paying MS is the what they demand on their very own platform. Well ain't that being an hypocrite?!
Nintendo just came out from the fastest selling console ever, MS tripled what the Xbox 1 sold, and the games division has in fact been turning a profit for years now.
Yes, big publishers do need use these new distribution models to their advantage, and the expected ones will.
Stallion Free
Cock Encumbered
But do they require big budgets?
I feel like EA and Activision depend way too much on 2/3 big franchises and at some point one of those franchises isn't going to carries it weight anymore.
Sega. They're trying to turn it around with digital, but it's too late. Hopefully we get Yakuza before then.