Thunder Monkey
Banned
No, there isn't enough data to say what the exact total will be at the end of the year.
There is enough to say that this level of disinterest early on does not look good for the year ahead.
NPD January 2013 Sales Results [Up7: Wii U 57K (CNET), Vita ~35K, PS3 201K]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
There is enough to say that this level of disinterest early on does not look good for the year ahead.
Quinton McLeod
Banned
1) We're talking about US sales and not worldwide.
2) Iwata said the company would make a 1 billion yen profit by the end of the fiscal year. That's the opposite of what you're saying.
educator
Member
If Wii U sales keep plummeting like this over the coming months, the few third party devs. even considering making games for it will probably cancel those thoughts and focus on MS/SONY. The games currently being developed will be rushed out to minimize economical damages and I bet the publishers don't give two shits wether they release a bad game or not, since no one buys them anyway.
michaelius
Banned
Looking at software lineup we are looking at 5 to 8 more months at < 100k sales and i suspect quite a lot of them will be below 50k (February is 99% certain).
I wonder if Wii U will reach 2 milions userbase at end of year without drastic price cut.
I wonder if Wii U will reach 2 milions userbase at end of year without drastic price cut.
CrunchinJelly
formerly cjelly
UK number there is for total software.
Hardware is probably not much more than a tenth of that figure. I don't think they have even hit 90k LTD in the UK yet.
Unknown One
Member
The Wii-U is flopping worldwide as well, even in Japan.
Twister Flipper
Member
No, it's software sales, not hardware.
Its a good thing Sony investors don't care about the Vita lol
shinra-bansho
Member
I think you're vastly overestimating UK+Europe.
Based on traditional post-holiday falls it would be around 10-15K a week for the region, similar to the US number actually.
pieatorium
Member
your UK number is total sofware not hardware, the hardware numbers wll be much much lower. I would assumd the total EU sales to continue to trend lower than the US
michaelius
Banned
You are not accounting for 800k or so Wii U that were shipped last quarter but haven't sold in shops.
If Q1 sales are at 500k levels shipments could be 100-200k.
Opus Angelorum
Member
The PSVita has had it's first US holiday, and it's on a ventilator.
Come the 20th there has to be a significant price-drop ($100) or it's done. Done.
Wii U, I'll give you until E3 before commenting.
Come the 20th there has to be a significant price-drop ($100) or it's done. Done.
Wii U, I'll give you until E3 before commenting.
Aquamarine
Member
Yep. I've been up for nearly 24 hours...I'm tired as fuck.
Let's try this again.
Wii U - 3.06 million as of Jan 1st
Target: 4 million by April 1st
North America, January (December 31st - February 2nd) - 55,000 (~11K a week)
Europe, January - 7,200? (complete guess here) (~1.8K a week?)
Japan, February (January 1st - February 10th) - 143,342 (~12K a week)
So that's like 24.8K a week at the current rate.
24.8K a week * 4 weeks * 3 months = 297.6K.
3.06 million + 297.6K = 3.36 million.....0.64 million below expectations.
If that happens, Iwata might be gone, guys. Investors won't tolerate a missed forecast that has already been cut like 3 times.
pieatorium
Member
ifthere is a drop if will be 50, even though it should be at leasr 75 imo
Quinton McLeod
Banned
Which, once again, is not enough data to condemn the Wii U for the rest of the year.
If Sony made the Vita cheaper than the 3DS it would be interesting to see if Nintendo decides to react or not.
Unknown One
Member
The Vita should have a 100 dollar price drop. Only way it'll get support in Japan.
pieatorium
Member
with the current lineup of games ts enough to condemn it for the next few months though
You won't be seeing a price drop on the Vita before E3. I'm confident of that. If it gets thrown any sort of bone on the 20th, it'll be lower prices for memory cards and some upcoming titles that existing owners will go crazy over but everyone else will pooh-pooh as not being system sellers.
I only posted that to see if you'd skip over Baconsammy's comprehensive post and cherry pick mine instead. Now I'm convinced you're just getting a rise out of people.
test_account
XP-39C²
It is an indicator though, dont you think?
CrunchinJelly
formerly cjelly
A price drop will give them a surge for a month or so but long term they need to commit with software. Both first and third party.
You can't expect people to buy your console because of the name on the box.
Baconsammy
Banned
If you want to just talk about the US, they're even more fucked. As for your 2nd point, you're done talking about the US and the Wii U? Because the conversation is about the near future fate of the Wii U. A rather bleak future given its launch and current trajectory, not to mention the barren release list through June. You say we can't predict what it will do, yet I say we can, and have. So has Nintendo.
How will they lose more sales? They have pretty much said the game is finished on the WiiU and the delay was so they could port it. So it was coming out this fall for the 360/ps3 either way. The game wasn't going to sell well on the WiiU if it came out now. They delayed it to help the sales of the 360/ps3 version. Makes perfect sense, especially after the Jan NPD. Point is that developers have no confidence in the WiiU when they are making exclusives multiplatform this early in the consoles life.
Baconsammy
Banned
Fortunately we don't live in a vacuum.
Quinton McLeod
Banned
No. Just like a woman missing her period doesn't necessarily mean she's pregnant.
They wouldnt need too. Its software which matters and the 3DS has the cross over games which the vita does not.
There wouldn't be any need. Their position in the handheld market is unassailable.
Unknown One
Member
Gamers in general don't like late ports. Which is why Ubisoft delayed the game. That way it'll get more sales on certain platforms; in this case PS3 and 360. A good example is all the late PS3 ports flopping out of the gate.
Why are you mixing shipped numbers with sales numbers again? You did that mistake in the fiscal threads too.
Wii U sold probably around 2 million of that 3 million shipped figure, so who knows how much exactly they will be shipping come March. The forecast will be tough to reach though without overshipping.
At the very least. There is no suggestion of reprieve, and while Nintendo is known for revealing games which are soon to be released, even they would have revealed games if they were due in April.
Quinton McLeod
Banned
1) Umm.. Ok.
2) I'm still on topic.
Hmm... Seems you've missed the reply I've given him. So, who's getting a rise from whom?
shinra-bansho
Member
You do realise that in your strange analogy, being late is an indicator that she could be pregnant. And that unless she eventually gets her period, she is pregnant - or there are issues with her reproductive system.
It could mean she's menopausal, I guess.
Baconsammy
Banned
Wii U is a still-birth?
metalslimer
Member
Wow, I cant believe someone is actually trying to defend these numbers based on some hypothetical titles that haven't been announced yet and trying to say that January being the slowest month of the year (even though this January was 5 weeks) somehow excuses this. Let's face facts here, barring some crazy price drop from Nintendo or Rockstar cancelling GTA5 on PS3/360 and putting it on Wii U in April, the Wii U is going to have a fucking disastrous first 6 months at the very least. But it's okay, just like Vita's disaster has continued despite the "saviors" in CoD and AC some people won't be convinced unless they literally watch it happen themselves. Of course some people will continue to think everything is fine anyway and move the goal post until the end of the generation.
test_account
XP-39C²
Sure, i dont think anyone say that the WiiU will have a terrible year overall and are 100% sure of it, ruling out any other possibilites, but there are indicators that points to that it can happen. It doesnt necessarily means that it will happen though, but there are some indicators there.
Can they afford the damage that a steep price cut would do though?
Their bottom line might be able to support it but they'd be setting themselves up as 'the company that overprice their weak hardware and then have to slash the costs back down to earth 3 months later'. I wonder if it would harm their future launches more than it would help the Wii-U.
Opus Angelorum
Member
$50 isn't enough, that's throwaway.
It's the only way to compete at the minute, the software library isn't even a valid comparison.
Lowered memory card prices or the 'added value' option has never worked. The base system needs to be seen to the average consumer as comparable to the 3DS, clearly the fact it has much superior hardware isn't selling it.
It's the old chicken before the egg theory, how long can Sony wait for the deluge of games that are going to sell the system? Why should third party developers support a system out of good faith. Sony themselves need to push the software. How they handled Call of Duty (this generations biggest IP) is indicative of their own support.
And don't get me started on their marketing 'strategy'. I'm loosing count of all the recent games Sony have utterly ignored.
Oh god. I was reading this thread when NeoGAF suddenly wouldn't load.
So I head on down to /v/ to see their take on the situation. They were quoting "analyst" opinions as facts and ignoring the confirmed NPD numbers. Why do I even go there anymore. *smh*
Don't ever leave me GAF. :'(
So I head on down to /v/ to see their take on the situation. They were quoting "analyst" opinions as facts and ignoring the confirmed NPD numbers. Why do I even go there anymore. *smh*
Don't ever leave me GAF. :'(
metalslimer
Member
Rather than be the company that just oveprices their hardware, has it sit there for months, and does nothing while it rots? I don't know about steep cut, but the regular needs to die NOW. And by die I mean premium should be 300 dollars and the regu;ar shouldn't exist.
Coming off the extremely anemic holiday lineup with no big releases in January I can't imagine anything great.
So what are horrendous unprecedented sales for Wii U also an indicator of?
Quinton McLeod
Banned
It could also mean she's on birth control.
An itchy butt could also be an indicator, but it means very little if there isn't enough information to back up that indicator. Some people are using any little information they can get their hands on to predict doom and gloom for the Wii U.
pharmboy044
Member
So, Creamsugar has'nt dropped any knowledge yet?
shinra-bansho
Member
So under your analogy what exactly does this entail? Nintendo intending to have such awful sales? All according to keikaku.
It's probably fallen Y/Y, considering it was down 20% in December. I would guess somewhere around 180-200K.
A de facto price cut to $300 would help. But I think, as in reality it's competing with the 360 and PS3 they need to go for a lower entry.
I think Sony will roll out the 12GB in the US this year as well to reduce their entry point.
Wish they would do something similar for the Wii U. $199 Wii U Deluxe / $149 Basic and I would bite tomorrow.
You can pick up Vita around the same price of the 3DS if you look around.
test_account
XP-39C²
Seeing actual WiiU sales numbers for one month has direct relation to WiiU sales, what relation does an itchy butt has to the WiiU sales?
An indication is simply just a sign that could mean something how things will come. It isnt anything certain, it is just something that people could take into concideration when they do their prediction(s). What you're saying is that there isnt enough information to say for sure how the WiiU will sell for the whole year, i agree with that. But there are indications/signs that shows that the outcome can (not will) be bad.
Pawnshops don't report to NPD.