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[Nekki]

[PSV] Muramasa: The Demon Blade <RPG>(Marvelous AQL) (¥4.980)

For reference:

[WII]Muramasa: The Demon Blade 23,900 (2009.04.06) (¥7.140) Edit: This is first week numbers!!

LTD of 45,825 and an eventual budget print which sold 29,823 LTD. From Garaph.

I can see it being slightly better on Vita than the first print on Wii.

We have anecdotal evidence of the vita version selling out of multiple versions. Is that version stealing some of the PS3 sales?

Yeah, which frankly means nothing. They could've shipped 10k Vita games for all we know.

I'm gonna place my bets right here: Luigi's Mansion will open above One Piece 2

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

Hmmm, they could have under shipped it, but if they shipped 500,000 for the PS3 surely they shipped close to 100,000 for the vita. You would think anyway.

 

[schuelma]

In the Comgnet anecdote file, DQX Wii U doesn't look to be on a particular strong track according to them.

 

[hiska-kun]

For reference:

[WII]Muramasa: The Demon Blade 23,900 (2009.04.06) (¥7.140)

LTD of 45,825 and an eventual budget print which sold 29,823 LTD. From Garaph.

I can see it being slightly better on Vita than the first print on Wii.

Using Media Create numbers:

[WII] Muramasa: The Demon Blade (Marvelous Entertainment) - 48,488
[WII] Muramasa: The Demon Blade [Everyone's Recommendation Selection] (Marvelous Entertainment) {2010.02.25} - 50,583

~100k.

I also think that the Vita version can beat the first print.

We have anecdotal evidence of the vita version selling out of multiple versions. Is that version stealing some of the PS3 sales?

No, they just shipped 10k VS 490k on PS3

 

[electroplankton]

Hmmm, they could have under shipped it, but if they shipped 500,000 for the PS3 surely they shipped close to 100,000 for the vita. You would think anyway.

100k seems too much.

 

[Nekki]

Using Media Create numbers:

[WII] Muramasa: The Demon Blade (Marvelous Entertainment) - 48,488
[WII] Muramasa: The Demon Blade [Everyone's Recommendation Selection] (Marvelous Entertainment) {2010.02.25} - 50,583

~100k.

I also think that the Vita version can beat the first print.


No, they just shipped 10k VS 490k on PS3

Ah, thanks for that

I forgot to mention in my post that the Muramasa numbers I posted are First Week only hehe, edited it in!

Wii SKU was a lot more expensive, that'll probably help Vita's version.

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

100k seems too much.

And 10,000 seems too little.

 

[pieatorium]

And 10,000 seems too little.

Split the difference - 55k

 

[test_account]

apparently the first game was a turd and had terrible legs, preorders seem they may be a lot lower this time

I forgot to ask about this in the previous thread, sorry. What was wrong with the first One Piece Musou game? I've heard about the quick time events stuff, but i heard that is gone in One Piece Musou 2.

In the Comgnet anecdote file, DQX Wii U doesn't look to be on a particular strong track according to them.

I'll be really surprised if the retail WiiU version of DQX sells anything close to 100k. You get the download version for half price if you own the Wii version, and i would guess that the majority of people who were/are interested in DQX already got the Wii version. Then the only intesives i can see would be to get the phyiscal copy for collection purproses and not having to wait for the download of the game to finish. The game needs to be installed anyway as far as i know, even if you have the disc version.

 

[donny2112]

I remember those GC droughts. Brutal!!

Ain't no drought like an N64 drought.

Don't really know which tracker to trust when discrepancies are that high. The DS is just as old as the PSP and the difference between the two trackers on it is pretty negligible. So I guess we can, eventually, expect these numbers to be more in line with each other?

A good check to do is to compare annual figures for DS and PSP between MC and Famitsu and see how the discrepancy has changed over time. Were Fam/MC oscillating around each other with DS or was there generally consistent annual totals making the current difference based off of a few distinct events? Do the same for PSP. Was there a situation where PSP annual totals for MC were consistently over Famitsu or were some annual figures in line with each other and others way off, indicating either a systemic or event-based cause for the discrepancy?

 

[airmangataosenai]

I think it's pretty unlikely that just 10k shipped of such a major title even if it is Vita. Shit, even if it was 360 it'd see larger shipments.

 

[Skyzard]

Pretty sure 10K was a joke

 

[Lexxism]

Yeah, it's a joke since 1k is the real number

 

[big youth]

ready for the most accurate prediction for Vita next week? 17.5k

boom. nailed it

 

[saichi]

Split the difference - 55k

this is actually likely as it would be between 10-15% of PS3 shipment. 100K shipment for VITA would mean 25% of PS3 shipment which might be too high.

 

[L Thammy]

"Why is Vita doomed and Wii U isn't?" On that subject from earlier in the thread, I think it's important to distinguish between known factors (i.e., things that are directly stated by evidence as having happened or most likely happening in the future) and unknown factors (i.e., things that we can only assume based on current situations and trends). That can explain some of the opinions that have been stated.

We've learned some things with Vita recently. We've learned that publishers are still willing to make games on it. We've learned that games can sell decently on the platform. Perhaps not outstandingly, perhaps not great for anything but niche software with low advertising costs, but decently. We might also say that we've learned that it isn't going to take off to a vastly improved level of health - though the dust is still settling.

With regards to unknown factors, can we say it's improved? I'm sure that we can. When we see developers announcing games for the system, it's much easier to believe that there are future games to be announced with selling power.

With regards to known factors, can we say it's improved? A little: we know about new games now. But it's also harder to believe that Soul Sacrifice will have outstanding performance now that we've seen the result. It's no God Eater. Of the games that are announced and known, there are few (none?) with significant selling power. I think this what was being referred to.

The Wii U's situation is not immensely different. But it's still sold more units at this point than the Vita or PS3 did at this point in its life, and we've got some known and announced titles from franchises that have had sales giants in the past. However, it's hard to believe that there are a lot of unknown third-party games in the future. Maybe the Nintendo games will sell as well as the Vita's titles, but it's hard to say what will happen right now - there's surely only so much that they can get out of Mario.

 

[jeremy1456]

The Wii U's situation is not immensely different. But it's still sold more units at this point than the Vita or PS3 did at this point in its life, and we've got some known and announced titles from franchises that have had sales giants in the past. However, it's hard to believe that there are a lot of unknown third-party games in the future. Maybe the Nintendo games will sell as well as the Vita's titles, but it's hard to say what will happen right now - there's surely only so much that they can get out of Mario.

Your post is slightly inaccurate.

The series which will be released on the Wii U have still sold 'sales giants' amounts in the present; on the 3DS. NSMBU didn't sell as expected, but there's never been a title in that series available at launch so it's hard to gauge. The titles have always been evergreen games that jump back on the charts as other titles have been released - NSMBU is far from done selling.

 

[L Thammy]

I don't think I said otherwise. More simply, what I'm saying is this.

PSV
Known factors: Not good
Unknown factors: Not bad

Wii U
Known factors: Good
Unknown factors: Bad

Someone looking considering the known factors would think that the Wii U was in a better situation.
Someone considering the unknown factors will have to consider the known factors as well, so they'll see the two as being much more similar.

 

[hiska-kun]

I think it's pretty unlikely that just 10k shipped of such a major title even if it is Vita. Shit, even if it was 360 it'd see larger shipments.

It was a joke.

50-70k seems more likely.

 

[jeremy1456]

I don't think I said otherwise. More simply, what I'm saying is this.

PSV
Known factors: Not good
Unknown factors: Not bad

Wii U
Known factors: Good
Unknown factors: Bad

Someone looking considering the known factors would think that the Wii U was in a better situation.
Someone considering the unknown factors will have to consider the known factors as well, so they'll see the two as being much more similar.

Okay I think I see your point now. The Vita does in fact have better third party support. That's an unknown factor as to what they will bring to it. First parties are more sure fire, but Sony lacks franchises that have mass appeal in this region.

The Wii U has some sure fire first party hits on the way; multi-million selling franchises to be precise. Historically Nintendo has lacked major third party support, which is essentially the unknown factor.

If that's what you're saying then I agree, to an extent. I must admit that I still think known factors are more important - the Vita would need to have a new and exclusive Monster Hunter title, or the next big thing that catches on in order to make a comeback. In a comparison of the two systems Nintendo, by nature, has the upper hand.

 

[pieatorium]

Okay I think I see your point now. The Vita does in fact have better third party support. That's an unknown factor as to what they will bring to it. First parties are more sure fire, but Sony lacks franchises that have mass appeal in this region.

The Wii U has some sure fire first party hits on the way; multi-million selling franchises to be precise. Historically Nintendo has lacked major third party support, which is essentially the unknown factor.

If that's what you're saying then I agree.

I assume you are talking Japan and not WW since this is the media create thread.

I wouldn't put my money on any of the Wii_ stuff regaining it's multimillion selling status. The sequel to Nintendo's biggest non Wii_ (NSMB) game from last gen is already out and not pushing things up. Mario Kart is the other big one to come.

Many of the other big Nintendo franchises didn't follow on the high sales of these others. Galaxy only sold a couple hundred thousand more copies than sunshine and alot less than Mario 64. Smash was up a over half a million over previous entries but this time there will be a 3ds version which I assume will take the lions share of the sales.

I've done a longer breakdown on this in here previously I'm fairly sure.

Basicly what I am saying is that all these games also sold very well on the Gamecube, many of them comparable to their Wii figures. NSMB was one of the bit guns that was supposed to carry the system, it hasn't.


This isn't saying I think the Vita is in a better position at all though, just that these big hitting franchises have hit big on Nintendo's previous home consoles without pushing it to the top. Expecting any game to be he new Wii sports for them is in the same ballpark as expecting a new game to become the next Monster Hunter on the Vita.

 

[king zell]

One Piece: Pirate Warriors 2 (this week biggest release)

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/137845/

Luigi’s Mansion 2 hits the 3DS

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/137838/

Disgaea D2

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/137830/

New 3DS Colors

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/137826/

Gears of Wars Judgment

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/137820/

more releases for the week

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/137812/

 

[Afrit]

I'm gonna place my bets right here: Luigi's Mansion will open above One Piece 2

.

 

[BishopLamont]

D a t a b a s e
Japanese Sales database download link

 

[michaelius]

Imho Muramasa 20k first week 30-35k lifetime
DQX - 30k first week , 50-60k lifetime

 

[ArtHands]

so its safe to assume that whoever think vita sales will be better next week due to one piece is over optimistic?

 

[michaelius]

so its safe to assume that whoever think vita sales will be better next week due to one piece is over optimistic?

Yes it's not big enough to counter post price drop and post big game release fall.

 

[hongcha]

so its safe to assume that whoever think vita sales will be better next week due to one piece is over optimistic?

3 other vita games released along with one piece. Check out amazon japan, two vita models are in the top 15, higher than any other hardware including the 3ds. So, I expect higher vita hardware sales this week over last week. 40-50k.

 

[saichi]

3 other vita games released along with one piece. Check out amazon japan, two vita models are in the top 15, higher than any other hardware including the 3ds. So, I expect higher vita hardware sales this week over last week. 40-50k.

based on that logic, it will outsell 3DS this week too?

 

[BriBri]

based on that logic, it will outsell 3DS this week too?

There's two new 3DS colours. And a Luigi.

 

[Lexxism]

based on that logic, it will outsell 3DS this week too?

No, it won't.

 

[michaelius]

new colors weren;t this week ?

 

[BriBri]

new colors weren;t this week ?

Yes. Regular 3DS. A pink and a blue.

Edit: Light blue and Gloss pink.

 

[metalslimer]

3 other vita games released along with one piece. Check out amazon japan, two vita models are in the top 15, higher than any other hardware including the 3ds. So, I expect higher vita hardware sales this week over last week. 40-50k.

Amazon data....

Vita sales arent going up.

 

[Jonnyram]

Media Create threads getting feisty again.
That can only mean one thing!

 

[Hero of Legend]

Media Create threads getting feisty again.
That can only mean one thing!

That it's Reyn time?!

 

[DaBoss]

Media Create threads getting feisty again.
That can only mean one thing!

The wars...they're going to start soon...

 

[metalslimer]

The wars...they're going to start soon...

MC threads will continue to be the most tame. Most platforms wont do that well and there is no MS to speak of. Maybe if the PS4 actually puts up a fight

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Media Create threads getting feisty again.
That can only mean one thing!

Year of Luigi?

 

[Oersted]

based on that logic, it will outsell 3DS this week too?

There is probably a difference between that logic and the reality.

 

[Foshy]

{2013.03.27}

[PS2] Final Fantasy XI: Adoulin no Makyou <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥3.980)

Wait, what's that?

 

[Mpl90]

Year of Luigi?

It's Ear of Luigi, not Year, come on!

 

[SmokyDave]

so its safe to assume that whoever think vita sales will be better next week due to one piece is over optimistic?

I suspect so, sadly.

I'll be pleased if Vita is over 23k and sad if it's under 18k. Anywhere inbetween will elicit a fairly dispassionate 'huh'.

 

[Trigonx]

based on that logic, it will outsell 3DS this week too?

So by your inference the 3ds is gonna sell less than 50k? He clearly thinks Vita will sell between 40-50k, and it is also clear the 3ds is not going to drop below 60k. What he is saying is that when the Vita is available at the new price point(or below like from Amazon) it is going to sell. I don't see the Vita increasing that much, I can see it remaining flat for next week with a slight decrease or increase.

The fact that people pointed out that "it's above the 3DS" means that they probably have hopes to see Vita outselling 3DS.

It's Amazon.....

If Amazon was a true indicator of the market we wouldn't care about MC or Famitsu, we would just go onto Amazon and see who is above who. And then in MC threads we'd get our numbers.

 

[electroplankton]

So by your inference the 3ds is gonna sell less than 50k? He clearly thinks Vita will sell between 40-50k, and it is also clear the 3ds is not going to drop below 60k. What he is saying is that when the Vita is available at the new price point(or below like from Amazon) it is going to sell. I don't see the Vita increasing that much, I can see it remaining flat for next week with a slight decrease or increase.

The fact that people pointed out that "it's above the 3DS" means that they probably have hopes to see Vita outselling 3DS.

 

[pieatorium]

The fact that people pointed out that "it's above the 3DS" means that they probably have hopes to see Vita outselling 3DS.

one person

 

[ShockingAlberto]

.

Well this is weirdly specific

 

[electroplankton]

one person

One person; and in general people that report faithfully Amazon rankings, saying that game X is up, is down, is constant, one SKU is present in the Top 10, etc.

 

[SmokyDave]

The fact that people pointed out that "it's above the 3DS" means that they probably have hopes to see Vita outselling 3DS.

This is a perfect example of the type of misrepresentation that is rife in these threads.

 

[Hero of Legend]

It's Ear of Luigi, not Year, come on!

Well Nintendo does want to Kick Off The Ear of Luigi now that LM2 is out right? XD