I mostly agree with this post, but I think the bolded is questionable; it suggests a correlation between niche and major publishers' platform strategies for which there's, at best, limited factual evidence. (The first bolded bit also implies that it's only recent news that niche publishers are continuing to support Vita, which I don't agree with, either.)
Is that what I implied? My thinking was just that recent announcements suggest that games are
still being greenlit, games being greenlit suggest
an increased chance of a game being released that helps move some systems. I wasn't trying to say that Dragon Quest XI will be Vita exclusive or that anything like that.
I would suggest instead that the longer a platform goes without major third-party support being announced, the less likely it is that it'll ever materialize. This applies to both Vita and Wii U, of course.
Hasn't the number of Vita announcements increased recently? I admit, I haven't been been keeping score.
So, to follow what you're saying, only major announcements will be influential (but only on gamers, not on niche developers)? I think that's fair. I think it's also important that the major announcements be exclusive.
For example, God Eater and Pirate Warriors have both exceeded a half million in the past, but no one is forced to buy a Vita to play the new ones.
EDIT: Wait, is the third bolded bit seriously questioning whether the big first-party Nintendo titles will sell as well as Vita's "major" releases? Crazy talk if so.
Maybe I was unclear. Direct your attention back to the beginning of that post.
I think that the
known factors for the Wii U are significantly better than the Vita's. That
includes 3D Mario, Smash Bros, and Mario Kart: we
know they're coming out even if we don't have details yet. What I'm questioning is the power of the unknown factors:
games we don't know about. The games we can only guess at.
I don't think I used the phrase "big first party Nintendo titles" or "major Vita releases" when referring to the Wii U. Let's say that Nintendo decides to fund another hardcore action game akin The Wonderful 101 or Sin and Punishment. Let's say they make a sequel to The Last Story, to Pandora's Tower, to Zangeki no Reginleiv. A new Excite game, a new Battalion Wars. Are those guaranteed to have hundreds of thousands of sales apiece? Am I crazy for believing that they may not?
The Mario I was talking about in this case aren't 3D Mario or Kario Kart. It's the other spinoffs, or maybe sequels to these games. Admittedly, I totally forgot how big Mario Tennis in particular is. Mario Tennis U will probably be bigger than almost anything that will appear on the Vita. I think it's possible that a Vita game might be able to top Mario & Sonic U.
Moreover, look at what the Wii U's third-party lineup is like now and try to imagine their third-party lineup in the future based off that information. Now do the same for the Vita. Which of the two lineups you imagine generating more sales? I would sooner place a bet on niche titles than on ports of older Western games.