• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Media Create Sales: Week 11, 2013 (Mar 11 - Mar 17)

ArtHands

Thinks buying more servers can fix a bad patch
3 other vita games released along with one piece. Check out amazon japan, two vita models are in the top 15, higher than any other hardware including the 3ds. So, I expect higher vita hardware sales this week over last week. 40-50k.

Dead or Alive port, Muramasa port and Sei Madou Monogatari?

Honestly, I don't think they will have any impact at all.
 

Nekki

Member
I suspect so, sadly.

I'll be pleased if Vita is over 23k and sad if it's under 18k. Anywhere inbetween will elicit a fairly dispassionate 'huh'.

I can totally see Vita being at 30k next week. 3 games are releasing, even if only one is of a higher profile.

I realistically expect somewhere inbetween 25-30k though.

Edit: Wait, it seems One Piece released all alone this week, nevermind my predictions then :p
 

Spiegel

Member
Yes. Regular 3DS. A pink and a blue.

Edit: Light blue and Gloss pink.
tumblr_mivbs90ayM1s2z1y6o1_500.jpg

tumblr_mivbs90ayM1s2z1y6o2_500.jpg

So many hardware bundles and colors have been released for the 3DS.

Fire Emblem
SRW
DQVII
MH3G
DQMonsters
Zelda OOT
KH3D
SM3D Land
SD Generation 3D
New Love Plus
Metal Gear Solid 3D

And then, there are like 15 different colors between 3DS and 3DS LL.

That must be a record for a system in the first two years.
 
So many hardware bundles and colors have been released for the 3DS.

Fire Emblem
SRW
DQVII
MH3G
DQMonsters
Zelda OOT
KH3D
SM3D Land
SD Generation 3D
New Love Plus
Metal Gear Solid 3D

And then, there are like 15 different colors between 3DS and 3DS LL.

That must be a record for a system in the first two years.

whats crazy is that even with that long list i'm sure you're forgetting some
 
"Why is Vita doomed and Wii U isn't?" On that subject from earlier in the thread, I think it's important to distinguish between known factors (i.e., things that are directly stated by evidence as having happened or most likely happening in the future) and unknown factors (i.e., things that we can only assume based on current situations and trends). That can explain some of the opinions that have been stated.

We've learned some things with Vita recently. We've learned that publishers are still willing to make games on it. We've learned that games can sell decently on the platform. Perhaps not outstandingly, perhaps not great for anything but niche software with low advertising costs, but decently. We might also say that we've learned that it isn't going to take off to a vastly improved level of health - though the dust is still settling.

With regards to unknown factors, can we say it's improved? I'm sure that we can. When we see developers announcing games for the system, it's much easier to believe that there are future games to be announced with selling power.

With regards to known factors, can we say it's improved? A little: we know about new games now. But it's also harder to believe that Soul Sacrifice will have outstanding performance now that we've seen the result. It's no God Eater. Of the games that are announced and known, there are few (none?) with significant selling power. I think this what was being referred to.

The Wii U's situation is not immensely different. But it's still sold more units at this point than the Vita or PS3 did at this point in its life, and we've got some known and announced titles from franchises that have had sales giants in the past. However, it's hard to believe that there are a lot of unknown third-party games in the future. Maybe the Nintendo games will sell as well as the Vita's titles, but it's hard to say what will happen right now - there's surely only so much that they can get out of Mario.

I mostly agree with this post, but I think the bolded is questionable; it suggests a correlation between niche and major publishers' platform strategies for which there's, at best, limited factual evidence. (The first bolded bit also implies that it's only recent news that niche publishers are continuing to support Vita, which I don't agree with, either.)

I would suggest instead that the longer a platform goes without major third-party support being announced, the less likely it is that it'll ever materialize. This applies to both Vita and Wii U, of course.

EDIT: Wait, is the third bolded bit seriously questioning whether the big first-party Nintendo titles will sell as well as Vita's "major" releases? Crazy talk if so.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
The fact that people pointed out that "it's above the 3DS" means that they probably have hopes to see Vita outselling 3DS.
one person
He just replied to if the Vita sales could see an increase from last week, using the examples he gave. He didnt say that the Vita would outsell the 3DS.

I've seen several of cases where people use Comgnet, Amazon rankings and small retail muslings, saying that a game will sell great based on these things. Most recent example is Luigi's Mansion 2. Someone thinks that it will sell amazingly based on anecdotal evidence. It might end up selling amazingly, but i dont see this as being any different from someone saying that the Vita could increase in hardware sales next week based on those things. Both things are based on anecdotal evidence only. What people think is most realistic to happen is a seperate thing though.


One person; and in general people that report faithfully Amazon rankings, saying that game X is up, is down, is constant, one SKU is present in the Top 10, etc.
Have anyone said that they believe that Amazon rankings is a good representation of the general japanse gaming market? I thought everyone here knew that it was anecdotal evidence only.
 
So many hardware bundles and colors have been released for the 3DS.

Fire Emblem
SRW
DQVII
MH3G
DQMonsters
Zelda OOT
KH3D
SM3D Land
SD Generation 3D
New Love Plus
Metal Gear Solid 3D

And then, there are like 15 different colors between 3DS and 3DS LL.

That must be a record for a system in the first two years.
Huh? Dragon Quest VII bundle?
 
He just replied to if the Vita sales could see an increase from last week, using the examples he gave. He didnt say that the Vita would outsell the 3DS.

I've seen several of cases where people use Comgnet, Amazon rankings and small retail muslings, saying that a game will sell great based on these things. Most recent example is Luigi's Mansion 2. Someone thinks that it will sell amazingly based on anecdotal evidence. It might end up selling amazingly, but i dont see this as being any different from someone saying that the Vita could increase in hardware sales next week based on those things. Both things are based on anecdotal evidence only. What people think is most realistic to happen is a seperate thing though.



Have anyone said that they believe that Amazon rankings is a good representation of the general japanse gaming market? I thought everyone here knew that it was anecdotal evidence only.

I just pointed out the sentence about Vita overcoming 3DS on Amazon, as it was the sign of something more.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Hmmm, they could have under shipped it, but if they shipped 500,000 for the PS3 surely they shipped close to 100,000 for the vita. You would think anyway.

500K shipment isn't only for PS3, where did this come from? The game will have a big decline, first day retailer reports made that clear, nothing can prevent it.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
I mostly agree with this post, but I think the bolded is questionable; it suggests a correlation between niche and major publishers' platform strategies for which there's, at best, limited factual evidence. (The first bolded bit also implies that it's only recent news that niche publishers are continuing to support Vita, which I don't agree with, either.)

I would suggest instead that the longer a platform goes without major third-party support being announced, the less likely it is that it'll ever materialize. This applies to both Vita and Wii U, of course.

I think the only thing we've seen among larger titles so far is that several publishers seem to be willing to port their less technically intensive PS3 games over.
 
I think the only thing we've seen among larger titles so far is that several publishers seem to be willing to port their less technically intensive PS3 games over.

Per my edit above, I think I may have given L Thammy's post more credit than it deserved. Not to dispute that Wii U is in serious, serious, serious trouble, but the notion that 3D Mario, Mario Kart, or SSB4 will have any trouble far outselling Vita's "major" releases is way beyond absurd.
 
Bollocks. This thread is always full of speculation and wishful thinking in all directions.

Alright, let me rephrase that. Wishful thinking's alright, as long as you can accept people are going to smack it down with actual facts and statistics. Wishful thinking without expectation of argument isn't likely.

You have the right to optimism. You don't really have the right to have that optimism unchallenged, unlike on some other threads on GAF.
 

L Thammy

Member
I mostly agree with this post, but I think the bolded is questionable; it suggests a correlation between niche and major publishers' platform strategies for which there's, at best, limited factual evidence. (The first bolded bit also implies that it's only recent news that niche publishers are continuing to support Vita, which I don't agree with, either.)

Is that what I implied? My thinking was just that recent announcements suggest that games are still being greenlit, games being greenlit suggest an increased chance of a game being released that helps move some systems. I wasn't trying to say that Dragon Quest XI will be Vita exclusive or that anything like that.

I would suggest instead that the longer a platform goes without major third-party support being announced, the less likely it is that it'll ever materialize. This applies to both Vita and Wii U, of course.

Hasn't the number of Vita announcements increased recently? I admit, I haven't been been keeping score.

So, to follow what you're saying, only major announcements will be influential (but only on gamers, not on niche developers)? I think that's fair. I think it's also important that the major announcements be exclusive.

For example, God Eater and Pirate Warriors have both exceeded a half million in the past, but no one is forced to buy a Vita to play the new ones.

EDIT: Wait, is the third bolded bit seriously questioning whether the big first-party Nintendo titles will sell as well as Vita's "major" releases? Crazy talk if so.

Maybe I was unclear. Direct your attention back to the beginning of that post.

I think that the known factors for the Wii U are significantly better than the Vita's. That includes 3D Mario, Smash Bros, and Mario Kart: we know they're coming out even if we don't have details yet. What I'm questioning is the power of the unknown factors: games we don't know about. The games we can only guess at.

I don't think I used the phrase "big first party Nintendo titles" or "major Vita releases" when referring to the Wii U. Let's say that Nintendo decides to fund another hardcore action game akin The Wonderful 101 or Sin and Punishment. Let's say they make a sequel to The Last Story, to Pandora's Tower, to Zangeki no Reginleiv. A new Excite game, a new Battalion Wars. Are those guaranteed to have hundreds of thousands of sales apiece? Am I crazy for believing that they may not?

The Mario I was talking about in this case aren't 3D Mario or Kario Kart. It's the other spinoffs, or maybe sequels to these games. Admittedly, I totally forgot how big Mario Tennis in particular is. Mario Tennis U will probably be bigger than almost anything that will appear on the Vita. I think it's possible that a Vita game might be able to top Mario & Sonic U.

Moreover, look at what the Wii U's third-party lineup is like now and try to imagine their third-party lineup in the future based off that information. Now do the same for the Vita. Which of the two lineups you imagine generating more sales? I would sooner place a bet on niche titles than on ports of older Western games.
 

hiska-kun

Member
Thought japan didnt have that form of spring break and the next big week is golden week

Yes, we have. Yesterday school ended, and this week we have spring break until april.
I expect some games to go up a little, but less than Golden Week, because is just schools, not enterprises.
 
I'm wondering and I thought this is an ideal place to ask.

We know the 3DS trumps PSP with its shading capabilities (basically PS360-capable according to Capcom when they unveiled MT Framework Mobile).

However, do we know how much, if at all better the 3DS' poly count push and texturing capabilities are over PSP? Is it similar to the point where PSP up-ports don't really need more polys and better textures as it's close enough?

We know shadows are more capable on 3DS (but utilized poorly in MH, way too pixelated :( ).

I'm interested in a simple comparison in various areas that 3DS does alongside PSP, Wii, and PS360, because 3DS seems to excel and be identical, and even possibly behind in areas in each category (depending on platform compared, obviously never actually better or on par with PS360, just on a comparable level :p).

Like polys and textures are behind Wii IIRC.
 
Is that what I implied? My thinking was just that recent announcements suggest that games are still being greenlit, games being greenlit suggest an increased chance of a game being released that helps move some systems. I wasn't trying to say that Dragon Quest XI will be Vita exclusive or that anything like that.



Hasn't the number of Vita announcements increased recently? I admit, I haven't been been keeping score.

So, to follow what you're saying, only major announcements will be influential (but only on gamers, not on niche developers)? I think that's fair. I think it's also important that the major announcements be exclusive.

For example, God Eater and Pirate Warriors have both exceeded a half million in the past, but no one is forced to buy a Vita to play the new ones.



Maybe I was unclear. Direct your attention back to the beginning of that post.

I think that the known factors for the Wii U are significantly better than the Vita's. That includes 3D Mario, Smash Bros, and Mario Kart: we know they're coming out even if we don't have details yet. What I'm questioning is the power of the unknown factors: games we don't know about. The games we can only guess at.

I don't think I used the phrase "big first party Nintendo titles" or "major Vita releases" when referring to the Wii U. Let's say that Nintendo decides to fund another hardcore action game akin The Wonderful 101 or Sin and Punishment. Let's say they make a sequel to The Last Story, to Pandora's Tower, to Zangeki no Reginleiv. A new Excite game, a new Battalion Wars. Are those guaranteed to have hundreds of thousands of sales apiece? Am I crazy for believing that they may not?

The Mario I was talking about in this case aren't 3D Mario or Kario Kart. It's the other spinoffs, or maybe sequels to these games. Admittedly, I totally forgot how big Mario Tennis in particular is. Mario Tennis U will probably be bigger than almost anything that will appear on the Vita. I think it's possible that a Vita game might be able to top Mario & Sonic U.

Moreover, look at what the Wii U's third-party lineup is like now and try to imagine their third-party lineup in the future based off that information. Now do the same for the Vita. Which of the two lineups you imagine generating more sales? I would sooner place a bet on niche titles than on ports of older Western games.

Okay, the latter part of this makes a good deal more sense than what I thought you were saying. Sorry if I misinterpreted. I could see Wii U third-party titles outselling niche titles on Vita, but if so, it probably wouldn't be a large difference.

Re: recent Vita announcements, I'd just be more hesitant to draw any correlation at all between niche publishers' support and that of those that have been demonstrably more bearish on Vita (SE, Konami, Capcom, nearly all Western publishers). There have been moderately positve signs recently for Capcom's and Ubisoft's Wii U support (even with the Rayman delay), but those haven't made me more optimistic about support from any other publishers.
 

Lexxism

Member
Is there someone who can give me the sales of One Piece Kaizoku Musou? I remember that someone mentioned that the sequel will have a lower sales compare to its preprocessor on its first week.
 

saichi

Member
So by your inference the 3ds is gonna sell less than 50k? He clearly thinks Vita will sell between 40-50k, and it is also clear the 3ds is not going to drop below 60k. What he is saying is that when the Vita is available at the new price point(or below like from Amazon) it is going to sell.

He just replied to if the Vita sales could see an increase from last week, using the examples he gave. He didnt say that the Vita would outsell the 3DS.

I don't know how it can be interpreted any other way. You can't say based on the chart, VITA is selling great but we can't judge 3DS sales performance using the same chart.

Check out amazon japan, two vita models are in the top 15, higher than any other hardware including the 3ds. So, I expect higher vita hardware sales this week over last week. 40-50k.

My reply was simply to point out the logic in this post was flawed. How does "two vita models are in the top 15 on amazon chart" indicate that vita hardware is selling better than last week? If we can use the chart to say VITA is selling better than last week, couldn't we come to the same conclusion that VITA is outselling 3DS this week? If it is "clear the 3ds is not going to drop below 60k", how does the chart show that VITA will sell 40-50K?
 
how much did that manage in the end?

there are more than 40,000 teams in the official charts, so numbers should be more higher, perhaps 50k or more
i'm still playing it, bought in August, over 130 hours on it :D
in February Nintendo hold a tournament, so i presume people is still playing (and sometimes i still find someone with Street Pass)




anyway, on thursday at Yodobashi Akiba 7 Vita models out of 8 were out of stock, the only one available was the black wifi/3g
 
Top Bottom