It's always been a conjecture. It's based in an old note he wrote months ago and couldn't remember the context for. That's the validity were working with here.
Each time Paul Thurrott news came out he said he had no idea of the context or if it even referred to always online DRM or just the ability to be connected at all times, but every time it was used as being evidence of always online DRM. Not only that but he openly admitted his most recent source (the Forza leak) had been all over the place with what he's gotten from other sources. Some contradictory, some spot on, some stuff he knows nothing about.
There's no point doing the always online gymnastics anymore when we're so close and they only continue to prove they're not reliable.