If Sony charges for multiplayer...I wonder what people would still stick by what they said about not buying a console that charges for it? I'm sure some mental gymnastics would be going on for sure.
Anyway, I still think this subsidization thing is fine for people who don't have the means to pay it all up front. Paying an extra 40$ while getting Live as well seems like a fine model.
I doubt many people would give it up. Microsoft got away with it for 7 years so clearly a bunch of folk are already used to it.
Personally provided PS+ stays at least as it is right now, then my subscription will not be ending any time soon. If that means that it includes online play then great, no extra spending that I wasn't already choosing to pay for for other reasons.
I (respectfully) disagree. From what I'm seeing it seems like a nuclear standoff. If Microsoft announces Xbox Live Silver has free-to-play multiplayer and networked services (Netflix) Sony remains the same, adds ancillary features behind PS+ paywall.
If Microsoft announces Xbox Live Gold remains the only way to access free-to-play multiplayer (there's 0% chance Netflix remains behind a paywall) then Sony does the same. Otherwise, they're leaving money on the table that probably won't be made up from extra hardware sales to the the hardcore who know the differences.
It's certainly a possibility, but I imagine the profitability of both consoles has already calculated incomes from subscriptions so plans could well already be set.
Sony could have changed it with the PS3 if they had wanted to, they could have left any existing accounts with free online and then charged for anyone with a new PSN account after a certain date. They could have changed it with the Vita. They left it as it was and they seem to be getting a lot of subs from PS+ though we don't know the numbers.
Microsoft are not typically very reactionary. They have a plan and they stick to that plan for better or for worse. If Microsoft currently plan for Pay Online and Sony announce it as free, I'd expect Microsoft to carry on charging since they had already decided to do it.
We'll never know of course, unless one charges for online and one doesn't. We also don't know who will announce details first.
Back on topic, I would be incredibly surprised if Sony doesn't also have a subscription model available, giving out PS+ to counter XBL.