Seems like a lot diehard Sony fans are hoping things stay the same despite having no evidence to support it.
Every console generation, the rules have changed to suit the new environment. If MS is making tons of money on Live and its subscription rate is growing despite being inside of a longass recession, and Sony's finances aren't exactly stellar, something's going to change on all sides of a new start since they compete very directly on all fronts of the console war.
It's not wishful thinking to expect Sony to charge, only reasonable to expect in light of the evidence of their direct competition making serious headway with a plan that they need to emulate. PSN+ is really not going to have the same value on PS4 due to Sony having confirmed that there will be no local BC and streaming gaming isn't ready for primetime, even according to Yoshida and Perry. What value does Sony's only currently existing PS subscription gaming service have with just discounts on the next-gen platform? Are they really going to lean on expanded social video/picture sharing and cloud service in place of a large library of current, yet mostly older titles to offer in a revolving door selection of titles? Sony currently has no matchmaking infrastructure for third parties the way MS has built up over the last ten years. Where's the plausible scenario for a PS4 subscription service to be attractive on the same level as PSN+ is now with PS3 and PSV?
Your argument about PS+ not being useful for the PS4 if nothing changes seems to revolve around the launch period AND only taking the PS4 into consideration. It will likely be a subscription that spans all three consoles (as it is currently with PS3 and Vita) so maybe you'd have a couple of PS3 games, a couple of Vita games and a couple of PS4 games in the IGC. It doesn't need to be ALL about the PS4, it's about the PS family as far as Sony are concerned. They want you to have a Vita, they know that a huge swathe of people buying a PS4 in the first year will be people who already own a PS3. So the PS+ servicing all three consoles is where the value is found and the service is attractive.
In addition, it won't take long to have a collection of games on there, games like Killzone or Driveclub being part of the PS+ service 6-9 months in to the PS4 life would surely add incentive to pick the subscription up for anyone not currently subbing, they did the same on the Vita with Uncharted GA and Wipeout 2048 when Vita PS+ was started in November '12, 9 months after launch.
That's not including new games that are part of the IGC from launch, with two small examples being Velocity Ultra and Thomas Was Alone, there have been plenty more. The PS4 is sure to launch with AAA games as well as smaller titles that Sony can drop in the IGC to add value.
It will also depend on how long it takes them to get Gaikai up and running for BC of older titles.
At launch, for PS4 only benefits, PS+ in it's current form could well include:
Discounts of games (even if it is only PSN titles which you CAN'T buy in a store for less)
A couple of free titles, likely smaller ones like a Super Stardust or something.
Cloud saves
Auto patching
Exclusive access to demos/betas
Whatever new online functionality they get running for launch
Probably cross game chat
Within a year they would be adding the bigger titles and have a wider library of titles to offer and swap around.
People expected Sony to start charging for online before they came out with PS+.
I really do not expect them to start charging for online play, they could have done it on the PS3 and then again on the Vita. They didn't.
I would be interested to see the reactions if it stays the same as it is now. MS charged extra for HDDs, wifi and online play this time around against a flailing expensive PS3 that didn't. I'm not expecting a huge price difference between the PS4 and XB3, so I wonder if Microsoft will be able to justify doing any of the same (obviously not WiFi) again, or if Sony will further adopt the same policies and charge for proprietary drives and online.
I look forward to the cheering from either side when we find out.