I dislike arguments that become so fragmented.
- It's not about excuses or being nice. It's about maximizing revenue, which is done by dropping the price to match the sweet spot on the demand curve.
If we're operating on the argument that "game publishers are stupid," then you can't assume the prices will go down. Example? Look at Nintendo and how long it took them before they started lowering the price of their "Nintendo Selects" this generation. Nintendo is basically unfazed by used games (their resale value is fantastic) and yet they didn't do any of the things you claim they will.
- Designed for DD means everyone having a large hard drive to store games, having a flexible game update process, giving publishers adequate tools to manage their store presence, including pricing and promotions...there's a crapload of stuff that X360 was not designed to do and in many cases cannot be patched to do. If you don't think it takes a lot of prep work, you do not understand the logistics of digital delivery.
The only thing that cannot be patched into the Xbox 360 that you listed was a bigger hard drive. Most of it's already there. What's stopping them?
If the rumors are true of an Xbox 360 mini that's entirely digital, this argument looks even weaker.
- GameStop is like the Dow Jones, which is also not the whole stock market, of used game sales. It's always the primary used game retailer for years and has had a huge used game market share for years. It can be safely used as an indicator of the growth of used game revenues over time.
No it cannot. You're still ignoring all of the mass market retailers, small specialty shops, regions where Gamestops haven't permeated, toy stores, online retail, and eBay/Half.
Even if you could argue that Gamestop was a microcosm of the rest of the market, that's still a lot of assuming to think it will stay stable and remain a microcosm.
- THQ is an example of a mid-tier publisher that went bust. Its AAA stuff made money, even when it sucked (Homefront); everything else didn't. They went after AAA in the first place because all their mid-tier stuff was pulling them under. And then you look at Majesco, SEGA, Konami, Namco, Capcom...it's the same story. Look at the lists of developers closed by EA and Activision - it's not failed AAA projects there.
It's because their mid-tier stuff wasn't mid-tier anymore! THQ wanted their Darksiders to be AAA, they wanted their Red Faction to be AAA, and these games didn't have the sales brunt to support it! And those Japanese developers you mentioned are better at living within their budgets. It's more a fault of the market more interested in western IP's.
And EA and Activision close studios the minute the game goes gold, doesn't matter what the sales are.
- you're assuming that people who buy used games would have bought nothing new. That has no basis in reality.
I never assumed that; it has nothing to do with what we're discussing. You're putting words in my mouth.
But because you bring it up: there will be a group of people who, when faced with the higher cost of a new game, won't buy anything, just like there's a group of people who will put up the extra cash for the new game. It's not all black and white. Those used games won't become automatic sales. Some will, some won't. It still shrinks the market.