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November 2013 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 9

M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...om-24-percent-decline-but-industry-sales-rise

138689058428.jpg


Dat arrow XD

About hardware sales

NPD analyst Liam Callahan noted that November 2013 was actually the best month ever for hardware sales in the US. "With the introduction of the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One, coupled with positive sales for the Nintendo 3DS, sales in November 2013 marked the best November for hardware sales on record," he explained.

And while the focus has been on PS4 and Xbox One, Nintendo's 3DS portable has been performing quite well. "Supported by strong content throughout the year, including this month's The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds, Nintendo 3DS hardware unit sales have increased by 15 percent year-to-date through November," said Callahan.
Click to expand...
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
3DS is around 760K based on their 15% statement.

I have it at 2.375M for last year through to Nov.
And 1.97K this year excluding Nov.

Thanks for ruining my predictions Nintendo. I thought the people saying it was the top selling were being a bit presumptive. It seems even Sony are ignoring handhelds now, despite having two on the market.
 
K

kswiston

Member
I knew that all of you were overpredicting on the 3DS, but I went and drank the kool-aid a bit myself...

It's going to be an interesting month of results...
 
Jonsoncao

Jonsoncao

Banned
I guess 3DS < X1 caught most ppl off-guard...

Anyway PS4 = 1138k, so my XB1 and PS4 predictions are almost spot on.
 
B

BlackJace

Member
so far....

[360] 647k (47k under)
[3DS] 770k (130k under) (come on)
[PSV] 97k (22k over) (how is that even possible..)
[WIU] 295k (75k over) (Sigh....)
[XBO] 880k (129k under)
 
C

Coxy

Member
lol dammit I bumped up my vita number because people were like "are you fucking crazy is this a joke post?" :p
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
SwiftDeath said:
Should be a crazy thread once released

[360] 580K -> 647K +67K Difference of 10.35%
[3DS] 900k -> 770K -130K Difference of 16.88%
[PS3] 450k -> 424K -26K Difference of 6.13%
[PS4] 1225k -> 1138K -87K Difference of 7.64%
[PSV] 155k -> 75K -80K Difference of 106.66%
[WIU] 240k -> 220K -20K Difference of 9.09%
[XB1] 900k -> 909K +9K Difference of 1%
Click to expand...

Lol Vita what are you doing?

And 3DS/2DS I am disappointed in you

I was off by 22.53% across all platforms

Without PSV I was off by 8.51%, sigh vita what you doing?
 
A

airmangataosenai

Member
Holy shit, did I win this thing? I feel like I might've, I was pretty close on everything aside from the XBO it seems (LOL @ thinking I overestimated it).
 
D

Deleted member 125677

Unconfirmed Member
Going by Tratorn's numbers

PS4 - 1138K
XB1 - 909K
3DS - 770K
360 - 647K
PS3 - 422K
WIU - 220K
Vita - 73K
WII - 68K
Click to expand...


Roboleon said:
[PS4] 1100K
[XB1] 850K
[3DS] 1050K
[360] 750K
[PS3] 650K
[WIU] 250K
[PSV] 150K
Click to expand...

815K off

Not too shabby! :p Handhelds and PS3 really killed me :(


chubigans said:
My first sales age and I just about nailed it!

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=93138241&postcount=234
Click to expand...

deadline was 12-09 though :p

Maybe next month! :)
 
B

Brakara

Member
By the numbers above, I have:

[360] 500k (-147k)
[3DS] 650k (-120k)
[PS3] 400k (-22k)
[PS4] 1200k (+62k)
[PSV] 75k (+2k)
[WIU] 200k (-20k)
[XB1] 800k -(-109k)

So, 482k off. Not too bad, I guess, though the Xbox higher than what I expected sales killed me.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
My prediction:
3DS - 1,150,000 (113% YOY)

Reality:
Nearly 770,000

Difference:
About 380K


My prediction:
Wii U - 276,000

Reality:
222K < Wii U < 224K

Difference:
About 53K


My prediction:

PS4 - 1,233,000

Reality:
1137K < PS4 < 1138K

Difference:
About 95K


My prediction:
Xbox One - 1,010,000

Reality:
XBO - 909,132

Difference:
About 101K


My prediction:
PS3 - 501,000 (-34% YOY)

Reality:
424K < PS3 < 425K

Difference:
About 76K


My prediction:
360 - 653,000 (-48% YOY)

Reality:
647K < 360 < 648K

Difference:
About 6K


My prediction:
PSV - 132,000

Reality:
70K < PSV < 75K (according to Creamsugar)

Difference:
About 59K

Total difference: About 770K.

Overall I didn't do very well at all...I was over-optimistic every single time and over-shot multiple sales figures by 100K. But then again, GAF predictions this month were all over the place, so relatively speaking I don't think I did that poorly.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
theprodigy said:
redo time!

[360] 750K (+103K/+15.92%) 360 pls
[3DS] 1100K (+330K/+42.86%) 3DS noooooooooo :(
[PS3] 500K (+78K/+18.48%) meh
[PS4] 1200K (+62K/+5.45%) oh wow, this one's the closest by %
[PSV] 110K (+37K/+50.68%) and I thought I might have underestimated you Vita
[WIU] 280K (+60K/+27.27%) I know my original prediction was closer, what was I doing
[XB1] 800K (-109K/-11.99%)
Click to expand...

total: 779K off/121.97% off (Vita doesn't count for % right)

and now, my original ones which I should have kept:

theprodigy said:
[360] 666K (+19K/+2.94%) would have nailed this one, also lol 666
[3DS] 1000K (+230K/29.87%) still sucks
[PS3] 450K (+28K/6.64%) another last gen laser
[PS4] 1050K (-88K/-7.73%) only one where my revision was better :(
[PSV] 100K (+27K/+36.99%) lolvita
[WIU] 200K (-20K/-9.09%) god damn it why did I change THIS one of all things
[XB1] 900K (-9K/-0.99%) would have fucking nailed this one
Click to expand...

original: 491K/57.26%

basically, always go with my gut for Xbox sales

(wait this isn't Media Create is it, do percentage points even matter)

hey donny if I edit the old posts can you pretend to not notice it
 
D

donny2112

Member
Aquamarine said:
Reality:
...
Reality:
70K < PSV < 75K (according to Creamsugar)
Click to expand...

Great! Going to use these except for Vita. Creamsugar said that it's between Sep+Oct and 75K and the middle of that is ~70K, so going with 70K for Vita.

Used for Predictions:
PS4 - 1138K
XB1 - 909K
3DS - 770K
360 - 647K
PS3 - 424K
WIU - 223K
PSV - 70K

Also, had to do some structural changes to account for the new systems, so if some of you wouldn't mind double-checking your unit results to make sure it looks okay, it'd be appreciated. Thanks!

NeoGAF Prediction Results - November 2013

Units

1. 1st Course - 315,000
2. airmangataosenai - 327,000
3. anexanhume - 373,000
4. Randolph Freelander - 387,000
5. BlackJace - 407,000
6. supersanni - 418,000
7. theprodigy - 425,000
8. Brakara - 490,000
9. Mr Swine - 504,000
10. catmincer - 507,000
11. GAF_Agg - 508,100
12. Yawnier - 513,000
13. WetPotatoBread - 517,000
14. jonno394 - 521,000
15. dakun - 525,000
15. lord - 525,000
17. BlackBuzzard - 537,000
18. metalslimer - 547,000
19. Fancy Corndog - 553,000
20. Asd202 - 563,000
21. andy_lhc - 569,000
22. Zalman - 576,000
23. astrogamer - 586,000
24. Jallopy - 600,000
25. DaSorcerer7 - 603,000
26. antonz - 607,000
27. Bruno MB - 608,000
28. vinnygambini - 629,000
29. Shion - 631,000
30. SwiftDeath - 639,000
31. Tratorn - 657,000
32. shinra-bansho - 658,000
33. Road - 678,000
34. Jonsoncao - 679,000
34. allan-bh - 679,000
34. user237 - 679,000
37. Anth0ny - 681,000
38. Megadragon15 - 683,000
39. baekshi - 690,000
40. unknownstranger - 705,000
41. entrydenied - 717,000
42. Baki - 731,000
42. RurouniZel - 731,000
42. Strike - 731,000
45. michaelius - 733,000
46. kswiston - 734,000
47. Axass - 739,000
48. pieatorium - 742,000
49. jmcoo7 - 745,000
50. Terry Travis - 748,000
51. Madouu - 756,000
52. mejin - 758,000
53. Daingurse - 773,000
54. Aquamarine - 774,000
55. Jamix012 - 781,000
56. JasonMCG - 783,000
56. Pachter - 783,000
58. Gbpackers31 - 792,000
58. gtj1092 - 792,000
60. Coxy - 798,000
61. idlewild_ - 803,000
62. Lumyst - 805,000
63. MasterSheen - 811,000
64. Brew124 - 813,000
64. Roboleon - 813,000
66. UberTag - 817,000
67. GimMick - 822,000
68. Oddduck - 827,000
69. Elios83 - 832,000
70. Shaddy - 843,000
71. NateDrake - 858,000
72. daegan - 873,000
72. gkryhewy - 873,000
74. thisiswhatever - 884,000
75. Prince Vultan - 893,000
76. DaBoss - 902,000
77. LordOcidax - 921,000
78. RamzaIsCool - 928,000
79. sacrificengineer - 931,000
80. strangedopamine - 939,000
81. Shaanyboi - 941,000
82. prag16 - 949,000
83. doicare - 959,000
84. perfectchaos007 - 987,000
85. FiggyCal - 1,000,000
86. DrWong - 1,007,000
87. sechsterangriff - 1,012,000
88. Parablank - 1,021,000
89. BPoole - 1,041,000
90. jvm - 1,055,000
91. Gianni Merryman - 1,056,000
92. Gestault - 1,057,000
93. Lexxus - 1,059,000
94. s&#9488;rine - 1,061,000
95. skedar897 - 1,062,000
96. GiantEnemyGoomba - 1,090,000
96. Wynnebeck - 1,090,000
98. Dedication Through Light - 1,093,000
99. CorporateClown - 1,097,000
100. Goldmund - 1,115,000
101. noobie - 1,120,000
102. Cidd - 1,129,000
103. Mystery - 1,141,000
104. AniHawk - 1,147,000
105. Al Gore's Thermostat - 1,167,000
106. Marchiott - 1,170,000
107. Notrollious - 1,177,000
108. CF22 - 1,178,000
109. Myshkin - 1,183,000
110. IN&OUT - 1,195,000
111. Sifl - 1,197,000
112. Madao - 1,207,000
113. Radec - 1,235,000
114. GulAtiCa - 1,237,000
115. Zero-Crescent - 1,240,000
116. Sakura - 1,245,000
117. donny2112 - 1,269,000
118. gamergirly - 1,281,000
119. kuhnbeast91 - 1,324,000
120. archnemesis - 1,364,000
120. bakman21 - 1,364,000
122. saucylion - 1,395,000
123. pitseleh - 1,413,000
124. Krilekk - 1,428,000
125. sjagolinzer - 1,537,000
126. beast786 - 1,634,000
127. Hammer24 - 1,697,000
128. Xamdou - 2,109,000
129. Steel - 2,152,000
130. Lenardo - 2,427,000
131. dolemite - 2,919,000
132. Duxxy3 - 4,163,000


Points
Code: 
     November 2013                   Overall 2013 Top (9/11)
01.  1st Course             120.49   donny2112              866.91
02.  airmangataosenai       114.02   doicare                862.41
03.  anexanhume             101.49   Road                   845.04
04.  Brakara                101.05   allan-bh               826.63
05.  Randolph Freelander     98.75   MasterSheen            822.96
06.  jonno394                96.70   Bruno MB               819.67
07.  Zalman                  96.06   confuziz               818.49
08.  SwiftDeath              96.06   DaBoss                 816.41
09.  michaelius              95.55   Goldmund               814.83
10.  theprodigy              94.34   Jonsoncao              808.44
11.  andy_lhc                94.31   Elios83                806.37
12.  BlackJace               93.69   jvm                    802.76
13.  Mr Swine                93.38   archnemesis            801.94
14.  Jallopy                 93.10   Megadragon15           800.67
15.  lord                    92.51   kswiston               798.36
16.  metalslimer             90.24   shinra-bansho          785.45
17.  WetPotatoBread          89.83   andy_lhc               774.81
18.  dakun                   88.89   michaelius             772.43
19.  supersanni              88.55   Brakara                771.26
20.  Asd202                  87.33   pieatorium             770.42
21.  vinnygambini            87.19   Zero-Crescent          769.90
22.  astrogamer              87.13   BlackJace              768.60
23.  catmincer               86.90   Aquamarine             766.97
24.  Lumyst                  86.62   idlewild_              766.36
25.  BlackBuzzard            86.45   Pachter                766.32
26.  Jonsoncao               86.44   DrWong                 760.78
27.  Baki                    86.25   prag16                 757.33
28.  Madouu                  85.30   skedar897              751.72
29.  Megadragon15            85.11   metalslimer            750.66
30.  Bruno MB                84.95   Gianni Merryman        739.41
31.  shinra-bansho           84.51   noobie                 739.06
32.  DaSorcerer7             84.06   Hiro_Kunimi_80         735.53
33.  entrydenied             83.90   pitseleh               729.16
34.  Axass                   83.80   CorporateClown         726.95
35.  antonz                  83.75   ItWasMeantToBe19       694.77
36.  allan-bh                83.67   Colonel Mustard        667.22
37.  Zero-Crescent           83.63   GulAtiCa               642.64
38.  kswiston                83.48   Hammer24               561.22
39.  baekshi                 83.42   Drago                  542.94
40.  jmcoo7                  83.22   Lexxus                 541.34
41.  user237                 83.09   perfectchaos007        533.01
42.  Brew124                 82.79   Madao                  502.19
43.  MasterSheen             82.77   Canis lupus            478.63
44.  Shaanyboi               82.71   Roboleon               424.27
45.  Gbpackers31             82.66   NateDrake              405.00
46.  Shion                   82.31   Jamix012               369.98
47.  Fancy Corndog           82.28   bakman21               369.30
48.  pieatorium              82.23   sacrificengineer       363.34
49.  Strike                  82.05   baekshi                357.37
50.  gkryhewy                81.85   airmangataosenai       356.57

Congratulations, 1st course! :D


theprodigy said:
(wait this isn't Media Create is it, do percentage points even matter)
Click to expand...

Percentages go into the point calculations. Anything over 100% difference is 0. Otherwise, each system is worth up to 16.6667 (had to round somewhere :p ).
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
donny2112 said:
Great! Going to use these except for Vita. Creamsugar said that it's between Sep+Oct and 75K and the middle of that is ~70K, so going with 70K for Vita.

Used for Predictions:
PS4 - 1138K
XB1 - 909K
3DS - 770K
360 - 647K
PS3 - 424K
WIU - 223K
PSV - 70K

Also, had to do some structural changes to account for the new systems, so if some of you wouldn't mind double-checking your unit results to make sure it looks okay, it'd be appreciated. Thanks!
Click to expand...

Cool never done an NPD prediction before

How do points work?

I'm 30th overall but number 8 in points?
 
M

Madouu

Member
gg 1st course!

I am very happy about the fact that Madouu charted even though the product is very niche among sales age fans.
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
Thank you, as usual, donny2112. Your service to the community is greatly appreciated.

Well done, 1st Course, and everyone that predicted well this month. I was disappointed with my own performance, but holding reasonably well for the year. I hope for top 10, but I'm betting on it. :)
 
R

Randolph Freelander

Member
donny2112 said:
NeoGAF Prediction Results - November 2013

Units

1. 1st Course - 315,000
2. airmangataosenai - 327,000
3. anexanhume - 373,000
4. Randolph Freelander - 387,000
Click to expand...

Randolph Freelander said:
What the heck. Going to give Vita and Wii U bigger jumps than should otherwise be expected because I'm feeling charitable, I guess, and disbelieving of math. PS3 and 360 strike me as low, but I'm not going to argue with math (contrary to what, um...). PS4 and Xbox One are of course entirely dependent upon supply.

[360] 600K
[3DS] 900K
[PS3] 450K
[PS4] 1200K
[PSV] 90K
[WIU] 180K
[XB1] 850K

Edit: I initially gave 3DS a "boost" to 1.2 million, but I went back and looked at last November, and it only managed 540K. My new number seems extremely low for a Nintendo handheld, but at even 800K, that's tremendous growth over last year. I don't know if I trust 2DS to boost the platform to where I originally thought it would be.

Edit 2: PS4 numbers slightly adjusted in light of the 2.1 million worldwide sales claim.

Edit 3: Just revising numbers all crazy for no apparent reason at all.
Click to expand...

Edit 3, yall. :/
 
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