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November 2013 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 9

A

Anth0ny

Member
[360] 500k
[3DS] 1000k
[PS3] 450k
[PS4] 1210k
[PSV] 90k
[WIU] 350k
[XB1] 850k

Can't believe I'm on the higher end for Wii U predictions... come on guys, it's not going to do sub 100k in fucking November.

right?

I'm hype as fuck for this NPD. This shit is gonna be CRAZY.
 
D

dolemite

Member
Time to sacrifice a chicken

[360] 1600k
[3DS] 1600k
[PS3] 1000k
[PS4] 1200k
[PSV] 400k
[WIU] 300k
[XB1] 1000k

May change if more info becomes available.
 
G

GulAtiCa

Member
Some of you have weirdly low 3DS numbers. I really wouldn't be surprised to see it north of a million, thanks to 2DS and even more so its $99 BF sale.
 
Boss Man

Boss Man

Member
[360] 660k
[3DS] 850k
[PS3] 408k
[PS4] 1050k
[PSV] 160k
[WIU] 380k
[XB1] 800k

You guys ready for non-specific, all-inclusive "Xbox" numbers?
 
Duxxy3

Duxxy3

Member
[360] 1800k
[3DS] 2000k
[PS3] 1200k
[PS4] 1000k
[PSV] 400k
[WIU] 600k
[XB1] 750k

Predicting a very health month obviously.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
I love the incredible variety in people's predictions this month.

Normally they're a bit homogeneous (with good reason), but this month completely shakes everything up.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Road said:
No Nintendo PR today... =\



Thanks for the numbers. Is that November or December?
Click to expand...

That's December 2004...November 2004 is 696K. Good catch---I did that list rather quickly so there may be a few small errors like that.


I wonder if the lack of Nintendo PR today is because they're waiting for NPD...or if numbers didn't exceed their expectations.
 
B

BlackJace

Member
Aquamarine said:
That's December 2004...November 2004 is 696K. Good catch---I did that list rather quickly so there may be a few small errors like that.


I wonder if the lack of Nintendo PR today is because they're waiting for NPD...or if numbers didn't exceed their expectations.
Click to expand...

Nah, I'd imagine they'd want to save it for NPD so they can at least trumpet 3DS numbers, which should be fairly solid. I dunno, I'd like to have faith in the Wii u numbers, but I keep getting burned as of late.
 
R

Randolph Freelander

Member
No clue on anybody, won't fathom an official guess on anything. Although historical bounces from October suggest ~100-125K for Wii U, I am simply not comfortable with anything below 180K, and that's really just pulling a number out of thin air. Even that number is abysmal, but what data is there to suggest that Wii U can have anything better? If Wii U were going to a viable system going forward, it would need to reach 400K, and I just simply cannot predict a multiplier of ~8x when November is typically ~2x October.

shinra-bansho said:
Are we expecting Black Friday PR? Holding off on predictions until then (if it's coming).
Click to expand...

Good news to be reported? Yes. Early and often. Bad news? Bury it.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Well, may as well chuck in some placeholder numbers for now in case I forget later.

[360] 690K
[3DS] 1050K
[PS3] 490K
[PS4] 1250K
[PSV] 90K
[WIU] 195K
[XB1] 800K
 
W

Wynnebeck

Banned
[360] 335K
[3DS] 435K
[PS3] 302K
[PS4] 1075K
[PSV] 47K
[WIU] 52K
[XB1] 845K

Win or lose, this first NPD is going to be one for the ages.
 
B

BlackJace

Member
Wynnebeck said:
[360] - 335K
[3DS] - 435K
[PS3] - 302K
[PS4] - 1075K
[PSV] - 47K
[WIU] - 52K
[XB1] - 845K

Win or lose, this first NPD is going to be one for the ages.
Click to expand...

Sheesh, Wii U and Vita will fare better than that at least (though how much is to be seen). November bumps everything.
 
R

Randolph Freelander

Member
What the heck. Going to give Vita and Wii U bigger jumps than should otherwise be expected because I'm feeling charitable, I guess, and disbelieving of math. PS3 and 360 strike me as low, but I'm not going to argue with math (contrary to what, um...). PS4 and Xbox One are of course entirely dependent upon supply.

[360] 600K
[3DS] 900K
[PS3] 450K
[PS4] 1200K
[PSV] 90K
[WIU] 180K
[XB1] 850K

Edit: I initially gave 3DS a "boost" to 1.2 million, but I went back and looked at last November, and it only managed 540K. My new number seems extremely low for a Nintendo handheld, but at even 800K, that's tremendous growth over last year. I don't know if I trust 2DS to boost the platform to where I originally thought it would be.

Edit 2: PS4 numbers slightly adjusted in light of the 2.1 million worldwide sales claim.

Edit 3: Just revising numbers all crazy for no apparent reason at all.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Randolph Freelander said:
PS3 and 360 strike me as low, but I'm not going to argue with math (contrary to what, um...).
Click to expand...
Hmm. In past years sales have consolidated a lot into November (4x multipliers for Oct->Nov in the past few years for the 360 and last year for the PS3.)

But I'm not sure whether the deals were particularly good for either this year and what impact two console launches will have. I think I'll revise down.

TTM for Sony and Microsoft's consoles may jump back up above 8M again due to these launches alone, having dropped below since May this year. Hopefully it becomes a long term trend back towards the ~10M level.
 
F

FLAguy954

Junior Member
Randolph Freelander said:
What the heck. Going to give Vita and Wii U bigger jumps than should otherwise be expected because I'm feeling charitable, I guess, and disbelieving of math. PS3 and 360 strike me as low, but I'm not going to argue with math (contrary to what, um...). PS4 and Xbox One are of course entirely dependent upon supply.

[360] 450K
[3DS] 800K
[PS3] 350K
[PS4] 1100K
[PSV] 90K
[WIU] 180K
[XB1] 750K

Edit: I initially gave 3DS a "boost" to 1.2 million, but I went back and looked at last November, and it only managed 540K. My new number seems extremely low for a Nintendo handheld, but at even 800K, that's tremendous growth over last year. I don't know if I trust 2DS to boost the platform to where I originally thought it would be.
Click to expand...

The 2DS was practically $99 throughout the Black Friday week. I fully expect the
'3DS family' to blow past 1000K for November.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
Wynnebeck said:
[360] 335K
[3DS] 435K
[PS3] 302K
[PS4] 1075K
[PSV] 47K
[WIU] 52K
[XB1] 845K

Win or lose, this first NPD is going to be one for the ages.
Click to expand...

bwahaha these predictions are abysmally low for anything not released this month

anyway gonna chuck some predictions:
[360] 666K
[3DS] 1000K
[PS3] 450K
[PS4] 1050K
[PSV] 100K
[WIU] 200K
[XB1] 900K
 
R

Randolph Freelander

Member
shinra-bansho said:
Hmm. In past years sales have consolidated a lot into November (4x multipliers for Oct->Nov in the past few years for the 360 and last year for the PS3.)

But I'm not sure whether the deals were particularly good for either this year and what impact two console launches will have. I think I'll revise down.

TTM for Sony and Microsoft's consoles may jump back up above 8M again due to these launches alone, having dropped below since May this year. Hopefully it becomes a long term trend back towards the ~10M level.
Click to expand...

I've peeked back at a couple of the prior October->November threads, too, and have indeed been surprised at what happened. It's also worth noting that November->December hasn't quite multiplied recently as it typically has, so holiday sales are getting more front loaded than usual. I might revisit some of my estimates later.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
theprodigy said:
bwahaha these predictions are abysmally low for anything not released this month

anyway gonna chuck some predictions:
[360] 666K
[3DS] 1000K
[PS3] 450K
[PS4] 1050K
[PSV] 100K
[WIU] 200K
[XB1] 900K
Click to expand...

It's a given that Wii U is going to be above 100K this month...anything lower is a bit silly.

The Wii U managed 94.6K with a SKU reshuffling "Deluxe price cut" and Wind Waker HD...and this month has the Mario & Luigi bundle, a super-ramped up advertising campaign, Super Mario 3D World, and Black Friday sales. I live in New York City, and I've actually seen a ton of Wii U commercials...the last time that happened was around the Wii U launch.

Early Black Friday anecdotal evidence also hints towards some number above 100K.

The question is...how much above 100K is it going to be? If it's below 272K, it will be the lowest Black Friday sales Nintendo has ever had for one of its modern consoles in its prime.

To be anywhere close to a success, Wii U really needs to be around its launch sales, or 400K (aka. GameCube levels). Although, given the Wii U's current situation, I find that unlikely.
 
S

saucylion

Member
[360] 1100K
[3DS] 1100K
[PS3] 550K
[PS4] 1100K
[PSV] 200K
[WIU] 350K
[XB1] 1100K

$99 360s and 2ds, along with a supply constrained ps4 makes me think there will be a four way tie this month.
 
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