The show has made that big ego mentality very hard to believe after they got wrecked bad in the prison attacks, got punk'd hard and nearly all killed by the Terminus crew, and had half the town killed by the random, disorganized attack of an uncoordinated, malnourished group of savages with no guns. Now they're up against a clearly bigger, trained group with a hierarchy, long range comms, more than one base/camp, tons of vehicles and serious weaponry... and the town is like maybe one notch up on the disaster readiness chart. Rick is more dumb than overconfident.