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2013-2014 NCAA Men's Basketball |OT|

D

Deleted member 12837

Unconfirmed Member
Come home from dinner and notice this tweet, which stirs up fresh frustration over the game earlier:

@TheDevilsDen

On Fouls...

UVa-Duke 38-11 FTs but UVa took MORE threes and sixteen FEWER shots.

Gill 17 FTs on six (!) shots. Parker 3 FTs on 24 shots.
Click to expand...

Welp, maybe I'll feel better after seeing our region in the bracket.

*looks at bracket and Midwest region*

FFFFFUUUUUUUUU

Time to start counting down the days until next season *sigh*
 
J

jakefromstatefarm

Member
Dosia said:
Dont sweat it man. This Arizona team should go deep.
Click to expand...

I don't think anyone in the west can match up with the athletes we can put on the court, even if our lineup only goes 7 deep. OSU probably gives us the most trouble though, they remind me of UCLA in their ability to shoot from the perimeter and keep us off the free throw line by playing up tempo. All in all though, I agree, we should win.
 
B

bachikarn

Member
Dragon said:
Their non conference SOS was shit. Committee is making a point with them and SMU.
Click to expand...

That makes sense because they want people to play tougher non-conference teams, but it also hurts the higher seeds in that region. Louisville is #2 on KenPom, and now those #1-3 seeds have to play a team they probably shouldn't have to until a Final Four.
 
E

ErasureAcer

Banned
Gophers should have made it over Tenn and BYU. Both have 4 losses to teams RPI 100+. Gophers have 2 when their star player was injured and got hosed by the refs in both games.
 
C

Crisco

Banned
Wow, really happy for this NC State team and that TJ has the opportunity to end his college career with some NCAA tournament wins under his belt. Also, 3 in a row for Gott to start his career, really can't complain about that. He's keeping things going in the right direction, next year could be interesting with all these young guys getting big game experience.
 
S

Seth C

Member
bachikarn said:
That makes sense because they want people to play tougher non-conference teams, but it also hurts the higher seeds in that region. Louisville is #2 on KenPom, and now those #1-3 seeds have to play a team they probably shouldn't have to until a Final Four.
Click to expand...

Kenpom is seriously off then. This isn't just a matter of not playing good teams. Louisville did schedule some decent non-conference teams but they lost to ALL of them. They are right where they should be.

Kenpom values scoring margin and upping it beating shitty teams can impact the rating far too much. Louisville is the example.

ErasureAcer said:
Gophers should have made it over Tenn and BYU. Both have 4 losses to teams RPI 100+. Gophers have 2 when their star player was injured and got hosed by the refs in both games.
Click to expand...

Tennessee has a 35 point win over #1 seed.
 
B

bachikarn

Member
Seth C said:
Kenpom is seriously off then. This isn't just a matter of not playing good teams. Louisville did schedule some decent non-conference teams but they lost to ALL of them. They are right where they should be.

Kenpom values scoring margin and upping it beating shitty teams can impact the rating far too much. Louisville is the example.
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It's easy to just say he is off, and it's definitely possible for that to be the case, but it's highly unlikely. MOV has historically been proven time and time again that it is an excellent indicator of future success. So unless you have some hard data besides "they haven't beaten anyone!," I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss it.
 
B

bucknuticus

Member
Here the official rankings:

Bi4110ZCAAAGpcT.png
 
H

Hasphat'sAnts

Member
If Kansas doesn't have Embiid then Gata's bracket's suddenly not nearly as tough as it looks on paper.

EDIT: Haven't looked at the brackets too thoroughly yet but UF(Gata!)/ISU/'Zona/UM are my picks for now.
 
S

Seth C

Member
bachikarn said:
It's easy to just say he is off, and it's definitely possible for that to be the case, but it's highly unlikely. MOV has historically been proven time and time again that it is an excellent indicator of future success. So unless you have some hard data besides "they haven't beaten anyone!," I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss it.
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This isn't about who should win a game. This is about a selection committee selecting the best resumes and ranking them. Beating shitty teams by 20 points doesn't impress them like it does Kenpom's metrics.

That said, ALL metrics like this are prone to being abused. The RPI can be gamed by playing a ton of teams in the 50-100 range and beating them. Is that more impressive than going 5-5 against the top 10 teams in the country? I'd say no, but the RPI would say yes. Kenpom's metric is just as easily abused.

The simply fact of the matter is that the BEST team Louisville beat is a 5 seed. 3 of their 6 "good" wins are against ONE team, and that team is a 7 seed. One of their "good" wins didn't make the tournament. They have 3 losses to two 8 seeds. The absolute BEST teams they played the entire season were a 5 and a 6 seed (and they took losses to both of them). That isn't the best they beat, it's the best they even PLAYED. So how can you realistically assume they are good? You can't. That was the committee's issue in seeding them. In their eyes, they barely played a single top 25 team all season and dropped several games to teams that aren't in the top 25.

The committee is less impressed with high scoring margins over the 150th best team in the country than Kenpom's metric is, and I side with them. Simple really.

Now, that doesn't mean Louisville won't have success. Perhaps they will, but that isn't what the selection committee is looking at. They are looking at a resume, and asking if there is proof they deserve a higher seed based on what they have already done.

Additionally, look at the teams Louisville lost to -- North Carolina, Kentucky, Memphis (x2), and Cincinnati. They are ALL seeded lower than Louisville. That is to say, Louisville lost all 5 games to teams that are theoretically WORSE than they are and bloated their schedule with a bunch of wins over teams that are MUCH worse than they are.
 
B

bachikarn

Member
Seth C said:
This isn't about who should win a game. This is about a selection committee selecting the best resumes and ranking them. Beating shitty teams by 20 points doesn't impress them like it does Kenpom's metrics.

That said, ALL metrics like this are prone to being abused. The RPI can be gamed by playing a ton of teams in the 50-100 range and beating them. Is that more impressive than going 5-5 against the top 10 teams in the country? I'd say no, but the RPI would say yes. Kenpom's metric is just as easily abused.

The simply fact of the matter is that the BEST team Louisville beat is a 5 seed. 3 of their 6 "good" wins are against ONE team, and that team is a 7 seed. One of their "good" wins didn't make the tournament. They have 3 losses to two 8 seeds. The absolute BEST teams they played the entire season were a 5 and a 6 seed (and they took losses to both of them). That isn't the best they beat, it's the best they even PLAYED. So how can you realistically assume they are good? You can't. That was the committee's issue in seeding them. In their eyes, they barely played a single top 25 team all season and dropped several games to teams that aren't in the top 25.

The committee is less impressed with high scoring margins over the 150th best team in the country than Kenpom's metric is, and I side with them. Simple really.

Now, that doesn't mean Louisville won't have success. Perhaps they will, but that isn't what the selection committee is looking at. They are looking at a resume, and asking if there is proof they deserve a higher seed based on what they have already done.

Additionally, look at the teams Louisville lost to -- North Carolina, Kentucky, Memphis (x2), and Cincinnati. They are ALL seeded lower than Louisville. That is to say, Louisville lost all 5 games to teams that are theoretically WORSE than they are and bloated their schedule with a bunch of wins over teams that are MUCH worse than they are.
Click to expand...

1) It's very unlikely that Louisville is running up the score to inflate their ratings on the various metrics. I'm not saying that might not happen for the RPI or has happened before in something like the BCS, but I highly doubt that is the case here. Also, Louisville is #4 in the BPI which tries not to over emphasize margin of victory. I think Lousville is closer to a top 5 team then they are a top 15 team.

2) I never said that didn't deserve a 4 seed based on their resume. I do think when you don't look at how "good" a team is, you are punishing more than just the team you are seeding. The higher seeds have to then play a tougher 4 seed than others would in a different region.

This is a similar situation IMO that Kentucky was in 2011. They were much better than their seeding indicated. Despite being the #1 overall seed, OSU had to play a 4 seed that was much better than their seed indicated, and ended up losing to the Sweet 16. I'd argue that draw for OSU was complete bullshit even if Kentucky "deserved" a 4 seed based on their resume.
 
T

thefro

Member
Welp, looks like Indiana is CBI-bound (if they accept a bid).

Hopefully this is the end of Crean scheduling sub-300 RPI teams for half our non-conference schedule.
 
S

Seth C

Member
bachikarn said:
1) It's very unlikely that Louisville is running up the score to inflate their ratings on the various metrics. I'm not saying that might not happen for the RPI or has happened before in something like the BCS, but I highly doubt that is the case here. Also, Louisville is #4 in the BPI which tries not to over emphasize margin of victory. I think Lousville is closer to a top 5 team then they are a top 15 team.

2) I never said that didn't deserve a 4 seed based on their resume. I do think when you don't look at how "good" a team is, you are punishing more than just the team you are seeding. The higher seeds have to then play a tougher 4 seed than others would in a different region.

This is a similar situation IMO that Kentucky was in 2011. They were much better than their seeding indicated. Despite being the #1 overall seed, OSU had to play a 4 seed that was much better than their seed indicated, and ended up losing to the Sweet 16. I'd argue that draw for OSU was complete bullshit even if Kentucky "deserved" a 4 seed based on their resume.
Click to expand...

That 2011 Kentucky team had wins over 2 seed Notre Dame, 2 seed Florida (twice), 4 seed Louisville, 5 seed Vanderbilt, 7 seed Washington, 9 seed Tennessee (twice) 10 seed Georgia, played 2 seed North Carolina and 3 seed UCONN. The best team Louisville played all season got a 5 seed, and they took a loss against them.

That Kentucky team had 9 wins against 7 teams that made the tournament, 3 wins over #2 seeds, and played (and lost) to to two additional top 3 seeds. Louisville has 5 wins over 2 teams that made the tournament, both in their own conference, and the best team they beat all season is only a 5 seed.

Starting to see what a complete joke Louisville's resume is by comparison, or should I go on?
 
B

bachikarn

Member
Seth C said:
That 2011 Kentucky team had wins over 2 seed Notre Dame, 2 seed Florida (twice), 4 seed Louisville, 5 seed Vanderbilt, 7 seed Washington, 9 seed Tennessee (twice) 10 seed Georgia, played 2 seed North Carolina and 3 seed UCONN. The best team Louisville played all season got a 5 seed, and they took a loss against them.

That Kentucky team had 9 wins against 7 teams that made the tournament, 3 wins over #2 seeds, and played (and lost) to to two additional top 3 seeds. Louisville has 5 wins over 2 teams that made the tournament, both in their own conference, and the best team they beat all season is only a 5 seed.

Starting to see what a complete joke Louisville's resume is by comparison, or should I go on?
Click to expand...

It's like you aren't reading what I posted at all. I NEVER said 2014 Louisville didn't deserve a 4 seed based on resume, nor did I said the 2011 KY team was more deserving of a 4 seed than 2014 Lousville.
 
S

Seth C

Member
bachikarn said:
It's like you aren't reading what I posted at all. I NEVER said 2014 Louisville didn't deserve a 4 seed based on resume, nor did I said the 2011 KY team was more deserving of a 4 seed than 2014 Lousville.
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Then what ARE you saying? Because if they only deserve a 4 seed, which is my contention, Kenpom's metric is off in their case. I think Louisville is closer to a 15 than a 5. You say otherwise. That alone is an argument that they shouldn't be a 4 seed. Make up your mind as to what your argument is then come back. Right now you don't seem to know what your point is. No offense.

My argument is that based on what they've done over the course of the season I have ZERO proof they are better than a 5 seed. None.
 
U

UraMallas

Member
On ESPN, every single bracketoligist has picked ISU v MSU with MSU winning the game and winning the title. I swear to God if that happens (again) I will punch a baby.
 
T

truly101

I got grudge sucked!
lol, Dukie V is the lone ESPN analyst that doesn't have us in the E8.

I'll be fucking thrilled if we make the E8 this year, and Sparty is not beating UF
 
I

iamblades

Member
Seth C said:
That 2011 Kentucky team had wins over 2 seed Notre Dame, 2 seed Florida (twice), 4 seed Louisville, 5 seed Vanderbilt, 7 seed Washington, 9 seed Tennessee (twice) 10 seed Georgia, played 2 seed North Carolina and 3 seed UCONN. The best team Louisville played all season got a 5 seed, and they took a loss against them.

That Kentucky team had 9 wins against 7 teams that made the tournament, 3 wins over #2 seeds, and played (and lost) to to two additional top 3 seeds. Louisville has 5 wins over 2 teams that made the tournament, both in their own conference, and the best team they beat all season is only a 5 seed.

Starting to see what a complete joke Louisville's resume is by comparison, or should I go on?
Click to expand...

^^ 2011 Kentucky isnt a great comparison, because with 2011 Kentucky you could point to Florida's 2 seed and something obviously wasn't adding up. Louisville doesnt have any 'but we beat them!' examples to point to.

Mostly underseeding and overseeding don't bother me though, it happens, and if you are a good team, you deal with it. What really bothers me is the blatant storyline seeding. When you have the selection committee so obviously pushing for matchups with certain narratives that they can sell to TV, it really makes you wonder if they aren't doing other things behind the scenes to make those storylines happen. Once your tournament becomes about the storylines rather than about the games, you are one step away from being the WWE.
 
B

bachikarn

Member
Seth C said:
Then what ARE you saying? Because if they only deserve a 4 seed, which is my contention, Kenpom's metric is off in their case. I think Louisville is closer to a 15 than a 5. You say otherwise. That alone is an argument that they shouldn't be a 4 seed. Make up your mind as to what your argument is then come back. Right now you don't seem to know what your point is. No offense.

My argument is that based on what they've done over the course of the season I have ZERO proof they are better than a 5 seed. None.
Click to expand...

There is a difference between how a team should be ranked based on their reusme and how they should be ranked based on probability of beating other teams. Louisville is a top 5 team in terms of likeness of beating other teams, but closer to a top 15 team in term of resume. I've explained my point pretty clearly several times.
 
F

Fjordson

Member
Big 12 fans, what sort of realistic shot do you give UK against K-State? They're one of the few power conference tourney teams I haven't seen at all this year.
 
D

DominoKid

Member
iamblades said:
^^ 2011 Kentucky isnt a great comparison, because with 2011 Kentucky you could point to Florida's 2 seed and something obviously wasn't adding up. Louisville doesnt have any 'but we beat them!' examples to point to.

Mostly underseeding and overseeding don't bother me though, it happens, and if you are a good team, you deal with it. What really bothers me is the blatant storyline seeding. When you have the selection committee so obviously pushing for matchups with certain narratives that they can sell to TV, it really makes you wonder if they aren't doing other things behind the scenes to make those storylines happen. Once your tournament becomes about the storylines rather than about the games, you are one step away from being the WWE.
Click to expand...

they've always seeded for storylines though. overcome it.
 
U

UraMallas

Member
Fjordson said:
Big 12 fans, what sort of realistic shot do you give UK against K-State? They're one of the few power conference tourney teams I haven't seen at all this year.
Click to expand...
KSU is exceptional at home and they can run. Their offense runs through probably the best freshman PG in the league (and that is actually saying quite a lot in the XII) and Gipson can definitely upset offenses down low. They can hang with Kentucky if Kentucky lets them. For most if the season, Kentucky has let teams do just that. If UK from the championship game shows up, KSU goes down. If UK from the end of the regular season shows, KSU is playing WSU.

I mentioned KSU is good at home and that is something to take into consideration - they are sub par away from home. The test comes when UK inevitably punches KSU in the mouth and how they handle that first blow.
 
F

Fjordson

Member
Anthony Davis with 40 points and 21 boards last night. The boy is a beast.

So weird to think he could be a junior at UK this year. If only =[

UraMallas said:
KSU is exceptional at home and they can run. Their offense runs through probably the best freshman PG in the league (and that is actually saying quite a lot in the XII) and Gipson can definitely upset offenses down low. They can hang with Kentucky if Kentucky lets them. For most if the season, Kentucky has let teams do just that. If UK from the championship game shows up, KSU goes down. If UK from the end of the regular season shows, KSU is playing WSU.

I mentioned KSU is good at home and that is something to take into consideration - they are sub par away from home. The test comes when UK inevitably punches KSU in the mouth and how they handle that first blow.
Click to expand...
Interesting, thanks for the info.

I feel like UK will have a pretty decent fan showing in St. Louis since it isn't too far from Lexington, but I wonder if all three of the Kansas teams there will collectively root against us. Obviously K-State will and I have a feeling Kansas and Wichita State fans will as well. Could be a much better atmosphere for K-State.
 
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