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[VPhys]

What are the sales figures so far? I was just picking up 2k5 at Frys and while paying I asked the guy at the counter which game was selling better.

He said, "Well ESPN has been out longer... but it's selling better than Madden."

I assume Madden is selling better, but this is a good sign as it means EA wont develop a Monopoly on the sports market, which will eventually lead to lesser quality titles. Even if VC has to sell at $20, by providiing compeition (as they are a million seller already?) it benefits we the consumers if the ESPN games do well.

 

[Teddman]

Funny, it seems every post I've read from folks who work at videogame stores puts ESPN ahead of Madden. I think EA is truly, truly afraid.

 

[Drexon]

...It's not 2005 yet.

 

[AniHawk]

What are the sales figures so far?

Just check my latest Sega thread for the most recent numbers.

Anyway, here are the numbers for July:

Xbox: 385,660
PS2: 406,083
TOTAL: 791,743

NCAA Football 2005 was also released on all platforms, and it pulled in 805,809.

 

[Bob White]

R1, any direction. 50 times before snap.

Fuck EA.

 

[Alcibiades]

It's going to be hard to tell of any real effects until we get September numbers in.

Don't buy any conclusions when August numbers come in in a few weeks, wait for mid-October, then we'll see the battle of the two games having already been out...

 

[ChumsGum]

Let's not forget we've got a long football season still ahead of us. As the season gets shorter with every passing week ESPN's price of $20 will look considerably better than EA's $50 price.

 

[snapty00]

I like how the price is so low that even if you traditionally get Madden (and indeed, get it this year, too), ESPN isn't totally out of the question as it has been in the past.

 

[sohka88]

madden will sell more, a lot more than 2k5.... as usual.

 

[GSG Flash]

Well, I wish 2k5 would sell more so EA can lower the price of their sports games, but I doubt it.

 

[AstroLad]

I think in the other thread FMT said it was around 4-1 in favor of Madden compared to 13-1 last year; certainly a good sign for those hoping against outright monopoly (and even worse mediocrity than exists now) in the football game market.

 

[MetatronM]

Didn't Madden sell 1.5 million in the first week alone? If so, then it has already beat the bejesus out of 2K5.

2K5 is having a MUCH better year than last, though, thanks to its budget price point.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Didn't Madden sell 1.5 million in the first week alone? If so, then it has already beat the bejesus out of 2K5.

2K5 is having a MUCH better year than last, though, thanks to its budget price point.

Well, ESPN was at over a million when Madden launched. Madden had it's huge initial burst, but that does not mean it's sustained. At EB's website, for example, ESPN has been listed above Madden on the XBox and PS2 on their sales charts for the past week.

 

[border]

Yes, Madden hit 1.5 million in week 1 and is already selling faster than any other version of Madden.

ESPN games have been a total non-factor, I think. Nobody has abandoned Madden to play them....they just picked up a cheap football game while they were waiting around for Madden to come out. It will be interesting to see what happens if Sega tries to jack up the price for next year's game.

Madden had it's huge initial burst, but that does not mean it's sustained

It has sustained sales through December for the last several years running.....no reason to think that they can't do it this time.

 

[Lazy8s]

These franchises grow more anticipated at each successive release, so each new version draws more of its total sales at the beginning. A relatively high percentage of those that buy the game when it first comes out are the enthusiast consumers, and they're the group that'd be picking up a copy no matter what the competition offers.

That 2K5 has taken marketshare from Madden is unavoidable.

 

[Wellington]

Yes, Madden hit 1.5 million in week 1 and is already selling faster than any other version of Madden.

ESPN games have been a total non-factor, I think. Nobody has abandoned Madden to play them....they just picked up a cheap football game while they were waiting around for Madden to come out. It will be interesting to see what happens if Sega tries to jack up the price for next year's game.It has sustained sales through December for the last several years running.....no reason to think that they can't do it this time.

That's a strong point. I picked up ESPN this year since it was only $20, and I will likely skip out next year seeing as it is such a low quality game, ****IMO****. At my EB they have a wall where they rank how all the games have been selling for all the systems. Madden is on top for every single one, ESPN is second.

Next year will be extremely interesting. Great move to get it down to $20 though.

 

[retardboy]

Just wondering, is 1.5 for all systems or just Xbox and PS2? Also, is it shipped or sold? Sega shipped 1 million and sold 800k according to the last numbers.

 

[JayFro]

EA must be feeling a little heat from how well NFL2K5 has done.

http://www.ebgames.com/ebx/product/242787.asp

http://www.ebgames.com/ebx/product/242860.asp


Is this just an EB thing or is the NEW price for NBA Live 2005?

Price wars benefit gamers wallets!

 

[GhaleonEB]

Just wondering, is 1.5 for all systems or just Xbox and PS2? Also, is it shipped or sold? Sega shipped 1 million and sold 800k according to the last numbers.

EA's number is combined. Also, Sega cited 'over one million' sold over two weeks into August, so they were referencing more than just July's sales.

 

[Teddman]

Didn't Madden sell 1.5 million in the first week alone? If so, then it has already beat the bejesus out of 2K5.

I don't buy that 1.5 million figure. And actually, it was 1.3 million that EA cited.

But anyway, the industry doesn't report sales that fast. Those are shipped numbers at best.

 

[BlackClouds]

ESPN is holding its own (still number 2? better than being out of the top 10 quickly like 2k4), and that's all I care about. What's interesting is that EA's other games are not as powerful of a brand as Madden, like NHL 2005, I wonder if they are vulnerable to being outsold.

I also don't expect the price to go up with ESPN for next year. It would be better for them to price any next gen games at that price, since there's the added value of playing games on the next gen system. The tremendous sales increase over last year is giving momentum to both games, so next year, the hype will be that much more intense.

 

[JayFro]

It will be interesting to see who wins this war because many people are budget minded buyers and gamers looking for a great deal. 2K5 is starting to grow on me a bit more and after having spent more time learning the defensive adjustments the game has grown on me and I think I prefer it to Madden now. Of course each game has it's flaws and such, but right now my game of choice is probably 2K5. Apparently Madden has some new slo motion glitch online that is causing some problems. Apparently Sega isn't the only company that needs to release a patch.


When it comes right down to it will $20 win over $50 and millions of sales in past years? Guess we won't know until Jan.05'.

 

[border]

These franchises grow more anticipated at each successive release, so each new version draws more of its total sales at the beginning.

I don't think that there is actually any sales data that will support this assertion (yet). We weren't getting spreadsheets in fall 2002, so there is nothing to compare with fall 2003 to see how front-loaded Madden is becoming.

Roughly 4 million copies of last year's Madden were sold in 2003. 1.8 million of them were sold in August....so it's really less than half of the total being sold in the first month (not even taking into account copies sold in 2004). The new Madden looks like it is totally on track to me.

That 2K5 has taken marketshare from Madden is unavoidable.

Not when the game is flying off shelves faster than it ever has before...with many of those being Collector's Edition SKUs that are sold for an extra 10% (but probably cost pennies extra to produce).

the industry doesn't report sales that fast. Those are shipped numbers at best.

Well duh. Sega's were obviously "shipped" figures as well.

 

[dskillzhtown]

That's a strong point. I picked up ESPN this year since it was only $20, and I will likely skip out next year seeing as it is such a low quality game, ****IMO****. At my EB they have a wall where they rank how all the games have been selling for all the systems. Madden is on top for every single one, ESPN is second.

Next year will be extremely interesting. Great move to get it down to $20 though.

Yeah but at the same time, I am not going fall for the $20 trap again. Maybe it is because I have been learning about stock and company performance, but I am more concerned with if Sega is making any money off this. If the title sales very well, but Sega/Take Two lose money then the $20 experiment has to be a failure. I say that because many of the people who bought the game wouldn't have bought it if the game wasn't 20 bucks. It would be nice if there was a profit model that could support 20 buck fully developed games, but with the price of games getting more expensive, I doubt that will happen.

 

[akascream]

I think EA is truly, truly afraid.

One can only hope.

 

[Malleymal]

if ESPN TRULY backed its game like it should , ESPN would triple its sales... there should be a damn tutorial on every feature that ESPN has... the online leagues would double ESPN sales if they talked about it on sportscenter or made a special show for it... hell, they could get one star player from each team run their team through an online season 32 teams from the league , and progressed it through the year like the regular season, game highlights shown on NFL PRIMETIME , or the morning NFL show.... I would watch how far Priest could take my chiefs......

 

[border]

EA will probably ride out the next year with their usual lack of concern. If Sega wants churn out financial failure for the sake of increasing brand strenth, fine. When the next generation arrives in 2005, Sega will be forced to raise prices and Madden's brand strength can begin clobbering them again. I don't think it's really in their best interests to respond when they can still do gangbuster business like they have.

If it weren't for the royalty structure on consoles, they could probably play around with pricing a lot more. As it is, slashing the price by 60% (as Sega has) becomes more of a 90-95% slash to profits....something that you probably won't make up with increased sales.

 

[Cloudy]

Madden fans should hope Sega also does well. Look at all the features in both games this year due to intense competition...

 

[dskillzhtown]

Well, hopefully Take Two will buy VC when the time comes and they can keep the brand going. I still keep thinking that next gen Gameday will make a comeback.

 

[Jesiatha]

If it weren't for the royalty structure on consoles, they could probably play around with pricing a lot more. As it is, slashing the price by 60% (as Sega has) becomes more of a 90-95% slash to profits....something that you probably won't make up with increased sales.

This is a bit misleading. In video game development, almost everything is a fixed cost (since the development costs are WAY higher than the cost of pressing each disc). Sales will need to go up 150% to match what they would have made at $50, but I think this could happen. I certainly hope it does, because I would love to see more good games coming out at $20.

 

[border]

Sales will need to go up 150% to match what they would have made at $50

With due respect, I think that's probably way off. You're only talking about gross revenue, and not really taking the fixed costs into account.

Let's pretend that the fixed royalty rates for publisher (TakeTwo), sports license (NFL), name license (ESPN), and 1st party (Sony/MS) amount to $15 for each game sold. You make $35 per unit if you sell at a $50 price tag (and that's excluding physical production costs, distributor cut, retailer cut). If you sell at $20, you would be making a profit of only $5 per unit.

So going from $50 price to $20 price means that you have actually reduced your profit margin by 86%....while the actual price has only been reduced by 60%. You would have to sell seven times the number of units just to make the same net profit as if you had sold at $50.

Selling 100K games at $50 means 3.5 million in profit ($35/game * 100K games). At $20, you would have to sell 700K units just to make that same 3.5 million ($5/game * 700K games).

The numbers here are admittedly wild estimates, but it goes to show how MSRP reductions cut far deeper than they appear....specifically because of fixed costs. I think that Sega/TakeTwo are expecting to lose money on everything, but it may be necessary to help increase brand visibility.

The problem with getting cheaper games is that only really cheap games see a significant sales increase. A $30 or $40 game won't sell much better than a $50 game, so it doesn't do companies any good to have less extreme MSRP reductions. The sports genre is the only area where it might be a good idea, since they basically are putting out the same game every year with different stats. The reduced development cost may actually allow for slight price reductions. At any rate, I'm pretty interested to see how things will pan out.

 

[sc0la]

Overall, Madden is still going to win out in sales. But it is being outpaced at our store by ESPN (especially after first week) and is catching a lot of casual fans (who are not "Madden Fans").

Good move by SEGA (WTF??), but I think they need to ease back into a standard price, they are not ready to go heads up at 49.99 yet.

 

[Lazy8s]

The licensing fees charged by Sony/Nintendo/Microsoft follow tiered structures that lower the royalty owed at lower software pricepoints.

 

[Mustang]

Well, lets see.

Madden = $49.99

ESPN = $19.99


ESPN should be kicking ass and taking names.

Sounds like it is pretty close. Much closer than it should be going by those price points.

It kills my theory that people buy on price alone although one would have to wonder what the sales of ESPN would be if not for the budget gourmet price.

 

[john tv]

When the NPD numbers come out, forget about sales and look at the dollar figures. I think it's safe to say Madden will be assraping 2K5 in the one area that matters most: $$$.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

If ESPN comes out ahead, good for them.

 

[Ramirez]

Do most of you guys even play these titles or do you just want Sega to beat EA?

I say that,because I don't see most of you in the football discussion threads...

 

[DarienA]

Do most of you guys even play these titles or do you just want Sega to beat EA?

I say that,because I don't see most of you in the football discussion threads...

What is this word you use... play... what does that mean?

 

[Ramirez]

LoL,yea not sure how many people here actually play games

Give them a sales manager sim and they would play that all day

 

[PhatSaqs]

LoL,yea not sure how many people here actually play games

Give them a sales manager sim and they would play that all day

lmao

 

[DJ Demon J]

EA will probably ride out the next year with their usual lack of concern. If Sega wants churn out financial failure for the sake of increasing brand strenth, fine. When the next generation arrives in 2005, Sega will be forced to raise prices and Madden's brand strength can begin clobbering them again. I don't think it's really in their best interests to respond when they can still do gangbuster business like they have.

If it weren't for the royalty structure on consoles, they could probably play around with pricing a lot more. As it is, slashing the price by 60% (as Sega has) becomes more of a 90-95% slash to profits....something that you probably won't make up with increased sales.

I agree with you, but at the same time, what were the total sales of ESPN NFL 2K4 vs total sales so far of ESPN NFL 2K5? 400k units at $50 a pop = 1 million units at $20 a pop.

I realize that royalty costs increase with more units sold, but if NFL2K5 can sell into the million and a half range on each console (no idea how close it is to doing that right now), that increased royalty cost may be amortized. If it turns out the Sega ends up making the same profit (or even a slight loss) but generates an enormous amount of goodwill and brand loyalty among consumers, I'd say it's worth it. Madden may be Madden, but price is the ultimate driver of consumer interest. I'd love to see the results of years of $20 vs. $50 (assuming ESPN's quality remains on par with Madden) on Madden's sales.

 

[Renegade]

Lets just say that 2K5 handed Madden IT'S ASS in July

2K4's price was marked down not even a month of it being released to 29.99, and further down VERY quickly. I doubt it'll make as much as 2K5 will, because 2K5 is on it's way to 2 million when it's all said and done. It still will not top Madden though, as the Madden franchise seems to be picking up steam rather than faltering due to competition.

Sega's selling VC, and I'm not too sure that's a wise decision. VC has the potential to give Sega some good million sellers year after year, perhaps even two a year. Watch Take Two takeover VC and completely turn it around, Something Sega lacks knowledge in doing as they've yet to kick themselves in the behind. Sammy has to step in and do THAT for them.

 

[Flatbread]

With due respect, I think that's probably way off. You're only talking about gross revenue, and not really taking the fixed costs into account.

Let's pretend that the fixed royalty rates for publisher (TakeTwo), sports license (NFL), name license (ESPN), and 1st party (Sony/MS) amount to $15 for each game sold. You make $35 per unit if you sell at a $50 price tag (and that's excluding physical production costs, distributor cut, retailer cut). If you sell at $20, you would be making a profit of only $5 per unit.

So going from $50 price to $20 price means that you have actually reduced your profit margin by 86%....while the actual price has only been reduced by 60%. You would have to sell seven times the number of units just to make the same net profit as if you had sold at $50.

Selling 100K games at $50 means 3.5 million in profit ($35/game * 100K games). At $20, you would have to sell 700K units just to make that same 3.5 million ($5/game * 700K games).

The numbers here are admittedly wild estimates, but it goes to show how MSRP reductions cut far deeper than they appear....specifically because of fixed costs. I think that Sega/TakeTwo are expecting to lose money on everything, but it may be necessary to help increase brand visibility.

The problem with getting cheaper games is that only really cheap games see a significant sales increase. A $30 or $40 game won't sell much better than a $50 game, so it doesn't do companies any good to have less extreme MSRP reductions. The sports genre is the only area where it might be a good idea, since they basically are putting out the same game every year with different stats. The reduced development cost may actually allow for slight price reductions. At any rate, I'm pretty interested to see how things will pan out.

I dont have any knowledge about this, but I really doubt the "fixed" royalty fee is the same for different priced games. My personal guess is its a percentage of the price.

If it is, then its not 15 dollars. In any case, fixed costs are not a big deal as variable costs, costs that rise with more production, ie costs per product like cd, case, transportion, and Royalty fees, which is really a variable cost, not fixed.

A fixed cost is paying terrel owens 100,000 bucks to promote the game. It doesnt rise with each game made and sold. The contracted salary for all the team members for game development is fixed, not depedent on production or hours worked.

anyway, all things being equal, 2k4 sold 400,000 on both consoles, at an average price of around 40 dollars(considering many were sold at budget) that would be 16 million.

in the first month 2k5 made 15.5 million in revenue. Who knows how much more the cost is for making and selling 800,000 games as opposed to 400,000. But with sales expected to be 600,000 more in august, I do think espn will do better financially then they did with nfl2k4. I also dont think the variable costs are greater than 20 dollars, as several games do come out for 20 bucks and I expect they are trying to make money.

 

[Jesiatha]

With due respect, I think that's probably way off. You're only talking about gross revenue, and not really taking the fixed costs into account.

Let's pretend that the fixed royalty rates for publisher (TakeTwo), sports license (NFL), name license (ESPN), and 1st party (Sony/MS) amount to $15 for each game sold. You make $35 per unit if you sell at a $50 price tag (and that's excluding physical production costs, distributor cut, retailer cut). If you sell at $20, you would be making a profit of only $5 per unit.

....

You're assuming that each royalty is based on units sold, not total revenue. I know that the "1st party" royalty is definitely on a schedule based on price (I think that a full price game is around $7-$8 on each console). I would suspect that the NFL and ESPN licenses are a flat fee, and if not, I would hope they are based on total revenue. As far as TakeTwo's cut, I consider that the same as money to the developer. If TakeTwo makes a significant amount of money on 2K5, they'll make sure the game gets published in the future

 

[BojTrek]

I bought 3 copies of ESPN NFL2K5... one for a buddy, one for an uncle/cousin, and one for myself... I am helping the stats...

 

[Subitai]

Lets just say that 2K5 handed Madden IT'S ASS in July

2K4's price was marked down not even a month of it being released to 29.99, and further down VERY quickly. I doubt it'll make as much as 2K5 will, because 2K5 is on it's way to 2 million when it's all said and done. It still will not top Madden though, as the Madden franchise seems to be picking up steam rather than faltering due to competition.

Sega's selling VC, and I'm not too sure that's a wise decision. VC has the potential to give Sega some good million sellers year after year, perhaps even two a year. Watch Take Two takeover VC and completely turn it around, Something Sega lacks knowledge in doing as they've yet to kick themselves in the behind. Sammy has to step in and do THAT for them.

Well, I could see where this might be better for VC where they're finally getting established, but their profits are being directed towards other parts of Sega's less profitable businesses.