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538: Gary Johnson Isn't Fading

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iamblades

Member
I can see the Libertarian Party overtaking the GOP as the conservative side of our two party system as the Baby Boomers and Silent Generation die off. While they generally are socially liberal and many self-described Libertarians are actually Rockefeller Republicans, the party line on economic issues and the role of government is naive, selfish, and dangerous to the health of the nation.

Why is it naive and selfish to believe that I don't want the government to be doing things that I personally(and I would argue most people) would be morally unwilling to do myself?

Just because government has a legal monopoly on the use of force does not mean that a use of force by the government suddenly becomes moral when it would be immoral for an individual to do the same.
 
I feel like anytime I've ever heard someone say they are voting for Johnson or Stein, they don't actually know ANYTHING about the candidate/their platform. Its become the "cool" thing to vote third party apparently


Edit: No offense intended to gaffers that know these candidates and want to vote for them. That has just been my experience with family/friends
 

FLEABttn

Banned
but if a third party actually wins a state this year, would this potentially open any kind of floodgate for third parties to be in future elections?

Our election system greatly favors whoever can get the majority of the votes thanks to first past the post so a medium to long term successful third party ultimately would replace one of the two parties right now (and to be clear, that's the Republicans).
 
It's a shame the US doesn't have a legitimate alternative to the two party system.

Johnson's Libertarian Party are an absolute joke and the Greens seem rather kooky compared to their British or Australian counterparts.

It's a real shame.

It's impossible to have another viable party when one is as dreadful as the GOP. You can't risk it as a Liberal, or at least you fucking shouldn't. It's essentially like playing defense nearly 100% of the time.
 

Erevador

Member
I can see the Libertarian Party overtaking the GOP as the conservative side of our two party system as the Baby Boomers and Silent Generation die off. While they generally are socially liberal and many self-described Libertarians are actually Rockefeller Republicans, the party line on economic issues and the role of government is naive, selfish, and dangerous to the health of the nation.
Johnson and Weld are moderates though, and are giving the Libertarian party a first taste of success. I think it may become increasingly difficult for the Libertarian party to be willing to prize ideological purity over actual political influence now that they are starting to have some of the latter.

As the GOP gives ground in the center, they've left the Libertarians a massive opening. Moderate, blue state Republican governors who are pro-choice is really the perfect Trojan horse to bring a mild form of Libertarianism to center stage, AND at the same time provide a sane alternative for the reasonable Republicans who have been in hiding/mourning since the 90s.
 
It's a shame the US doesn't have a legitimate alternative to the two party system.

Johnson's Libertarian Party are an absolute joke and the Greens seem rather kooky compared to their British or Australian counterparts.

It's a real shame.

I more or less disagree. Both parties have significant ideologically different blocks within the party. The 2016 GOP is a good example of this, as it is ideologically diverse and spans populist, center-right, religious right, isolationist, far right, and all points in between ideologies. The result is usually a moderating factor when national candidates emerge.

Donald Trump is from a different ideological movement within the Republican party than Mitt Romney, and Mitt Romney was from a different political faction within the Republican party than George Bush. When you break it down to the state level, there are stark ideological contrasts between Republican candidates from, say, Massachusetts than there are from Republican candidates in South Dakota or New Mexico.

The same can be said of the Democratic party, though it is slightly less ideologically divided and the party has had better coordination over the last decade than the GOP, though that wasn't always the case and there will come a time when the Democratic party could resemble the splintered GOP, and the roles can be reversed.

The two party system has faults, but it typically vets extremism. Donald Trump, for all of his racist, sexist, and populist bluster, is less ideologically extreme than other leading presidential candidates in the Republican party. He's a complete dolt and would be a terrible president, likely the worst in 100+ years, but he's generally less ideologically extreme than some far-right candidates who are generally vetted out in the primaries.

So, I don't really think it's a shame. The two party system is a moderating system in US politics, and there is still ideological divisions in each party, and by the nature of our Democratic Republic, there are significant ideological differences between members of the same party throughout the United States.

Oh I don't think he will be.

Again, he got 13 million votes. He'll still have plenty of support from a sizeable portion of the conservative electorate.

A problem for Trump to be influential in American politics after this election [assuming he loses by a landslide as polls suggest], is that he has no political gravitas outside of this election season. He's never held any political office. John McCain still commanded decent political clout after losing by a large margin in 2008 because he was a senior Republican in the senate, and when Republicans took back the senate in 2010, McCain ended up becoming a central politician. Even while Romney had not held an elected office since 2006, after losing in 2012, he still maintained a position of political clout in the party because he was a major down ticket fundraiser and maintained a large circle of donors that he brought to other Republicans.

Up until about 3 months ago, Trump had no relationship with the Republican party, had no fundraising base, had no ground movement, and on top of it all, he had (and still has) an antagonistic relationship with nearly all leading members of the Republican party. He has an antagonistic relationship with the current speaker of the house, an antagonistic relationship with most long serving senators, an antagonistic relationship with the Chairman of the RNC. When he loses this election (assuming he does), he won't have any future in the GOP and because he never had a history in American politics, he won't have any role in influencing politics in a meaningful way.

What he will have is television interviews. Even while he has an antagonistic relationship with the press, we can all get ready for Trump as a guest on every leading 24/7 political news program for half a decade. He's instant ratings and instant news making appearances, and that will be his only influence. Beyond that, it's probably pretty likely that Trump doesn't even want to be influential politically. He wants to sit back and throw stones from his glass house, while raking in check after check from media appearances.
 

Joni

Member
He is the guy that believes states should decide on abortion rights being opposed to Roe vs Wade, doesn't believe in gun control, thinks that companies will solve global warming while governments should do nothing and wants to eliminate welfare programs. He isn't Trump, but he is still shitty and bad for the world.
 

Sixfortyfive

He who pursues two rabbits gets two rabbits.
I don't like Johnson or Stein at all, and Hillary is better than both in my opinion, but if a third party actually wins a state this year, would this potentially open any kind of floodgate for third parties to be in future elections?

The only practical effect that a strong third-party showing would have on American politics would be to cause one of the two major parties to restructure somewhat in order to recapture that segment of the vote. The Democratic and Republican parties may have been the only viable national parties for 150+ years, but it's not like either of their respective party platforms resemble their former selves from the 19th century at all.

Ross Perot got 20% of the vote in 1992 but couldn't carry a single state. Prior third-party candidates have been significant spoilers in the electoral college, but you have to go back a long way to find a time when there were arguably more than 2 parties with a viable shot at winning the presidency at any one time, and even those were largely unusual political situations of unrest during the Civil War and whatnot.

Even former president Theodore Roosevelt could only muster about 25% of the vote as a third party candidate in 1912 and effectively did little more than split the Republican vote that year.

In the current landscape, the Libertarian and Green parties serve little function beyond being outlets for conservative and liberal protest votes, respectively.
 

Valhelm

contribute something
I really hope Johnson does well. It's great to see the right tear itself apart, and I think the Libertarian Party is probably less evil than the GOP
 

Azzanadra

Member
As a socialist I view libertarianism as the power vacuum that replace government with corporations, so not a good world view essentially.

Despite that, I do hope Johnson makes the debates just because it will be all the more interesting and may usher in an age of viable third parties.
 

Maledict

Member
This is all that matters to me -- getting Johnson enough votes to further legitimize third parties in 2020. Though honestly, if Perot didn't do it with his 20%, probably no one can.

But yeah, I'm in a very blue state, so I feel safe voting for Johnson. If I were somewhere more contentious, I'd be giving my vote (begrudgingly) to Hillary.

It doesn't work like this.

The USA system cannot have 3 valid parties. It's mathematically not possible with a winner takes all, 270 majority requirement to win the presidency. All a third party does is ensure that the side the third party is on (left or right) is guaranteed to lose elections. Your system will always, *always* boil down to two parties - it cannot be anything else.

If you want to change the system, you need to get involved in politics at a local level, and start change there. Campaigning for a third party presidential vote is literally the worse way to change politics in America.
 
Hillary is great speaker...

Hillary is not considered a good speaker. She has cogent thoughts, puts out strong policy recommendations, but she very rarely comes across as magnanimous. When her excitement gets the better of her, it usually doesn't play well.

But in a debate setting, Hillary is usually very good. Clean, cutting, and to the point, because she doesn't have to shout or yell.

I am a Clinton supporter but giving prepared speeches that move an audience is not normally considered one of her strong suits.
 
He is the guy that believes states should decide on abortion rights being opposed to Roe vs Wade, doesn't believe in gun control, thinks that companies will solve global warming while governments should do nothing and wants to eliminate welfare programs. He isn't Trump, but he is still shitty and bad for the world.

Yeah the idea that he's a moderate is as fucking hilarious as it is fucking asinine and it is extremely hilarious
 
Hillary is not considered a good speaker. She has cogent thoughts, puts out strong policy recommendations, but she very rarely comes across as magnanimous. When her excitement gets the better of her, it usually doesn't play well.

But in a debate setting, Hillary is usually very good. Clean, cutting, and to the point, because she doesn't have to shout or yell.

I am a Clinton supporter but giving prepared speeches that move an audience is not normally considered one of her strong suits.

Debating was the context. (and she gave a very, very good speech yesterday.)
 

studyguy

Member
How do you guys feel about Flat Tax... Oh sorry, I mean Fair Tax™

Income Taxes? Captial gains? Pfft.
My 9-9-9 plan starts with throwing out the current tax code and pass 9% business flat tax, 9% personal income tax, and the 9% national sales tax.
 

Valhelm

contribute something
I feel like anytime I've ever heard someone say they are voting for Johnson or Stein, they don't actually know ANYTHING about the candidate/their platform. Its become the "cool" thing to vote third party apparently


Edit: No offense intended to gaffers that know these candidates and want to vote for them. That has just been my experience with family/friends

Stein's entire popularity is riding on the coattails of the Bernie movement while also trying to seem cool and radical by nominally rejecting capitalism
 

A Fish Aficionado

I am going to make it through this year if it kills me
Eh, while I agree with her on most issues, and the speeches themselves are good, she's not that great of a speaker IMO. Doesn't have the same energy Obama had
Well, yeah. An Obama like figure is rare. I'm just saying she's good at it, not excellent.
 
Eh, while I agree with her on most issues, and the speeches themselves are good, she's not that great of a speaker IMO. Doesn't have the same energy Obama had

Obama is a once in a lifetime orator. I'm not calling Hilary some great speech maker(she can be very good, depending on tone) but there's no shame in not being in Obama's league. Very few in Politics are, if any.
 

Erevador

Member
Stein's entire popularity is riding on the coattails of the Bernie movement while also trying to seem cool and radical by nominally rejecting capitalism
Stein's been an embarrassingly incompetent candidate. Her choice of running mate is an insane person, and her "beliefs" are all over the place (like her flip-flop on Brexit. She claimed support for her it on her website, then deleted that, and claimed she opposed it).
 

Fuchsdh

Member
I don't think removing the Electoral College would suddenly lead to sunshine, rainbows, and the magic outpouring of third parties, but it would at least make a third party run of any non-immensely-popular outlier (Roosevelt) actually possible rather than statistically impossible.

That said, Johnson is not what I think most people want in a candidate, unless legal weed really is your single biggest campaign issue.
 

Valhelm

contribute something
As a hard lefty I hate that the Green party is as popular as it is. They've got a pretty bad platform that isn't too distinct from the Democrats, yet they're the only independent party on the left with any hope of gaining national attention.

Groups like Socialist Alternative, Party for Socialism and Liberation, and the International Workers of the World are much more competent despite being more radical.
 

Velcro Fly

Member
Trump and Gary Johnson have their supporters

Hillary is going up in the polls as more people realize it is either her or apocalypse.
 
I don't think removing the Electoral College would suddenly lead to sunshine, rainbows, and the magic outpouring of third parties, but it would at least make a third party run of any non-immensely-popular outlier (Roosevelt) actually possible rather than statistically impossible.

That said, Johnson is not what I think most people want in a candidate, unless legal weed really is your single biggest campaign issue.

He's sure as shit not making that happen regardless.
 

pigeon

Banned
I can see this election ushering the Seventh Party System as the GOP collapses .

This is what I anticipate. GOP becomes a regional nationalist party and the Libertarians become the second party. The Libertarians are going to have to work on purging their party of white nationalists, though, but I think they can actually do that more easily than the GOP at this point.
 
Well, unless things change drastically, he's not going to make the 1st debate.

The polls they're going to use are:

ABC-Washington Post
CBS-New York Times
CNN-Opinion Research Corporation
Fox News
NBC-Wall Street Journal

ABC-8%
CBS-10%
CNN-9%
Fox-12%
NBC-10%

You have to average at least 15% in these polls. He's averaging around 10% right now. He has about two weeks to get up to 15%...which isn't going to happen.
 
This is what I anticipate. GOP becomes a regional nationalist party and the Libertarians become the second party. The Libertarians are going to have to work on purging their party of white nationalists, though, but I think they can actually do that more easily than the GOP at this point.

Libertarian being the second option is so hilariously bad as well.
 
Even if Johnson does well, I don't see it ushering in any age of third parties. The structural impediments to any third party in the American political system are just too strong. Historically third parties have only done well for a cycle or so before either fading or the party system realigning. Either way you end up with two major parties at the end.
 

pigeon

Banned
Libertarian being the second option is so hilariously bad as well.

Well, they'll have to shape up and develop a party oligarchy and everything once they start actually being a serious contender. In a few years they'll be manipulating Robert's Rules of Order with the best of them.
 

shintoki

sparkle this bitch
Trump has secured his future easily. He already won for what he initially set out to do. So win or lose, Trump is going to get rich off of this for many years to come.

Johnson actually has a shot here, Not of winning, but possibly a good size revolt in the R.Party. I could see him in contention for a Ross Perot size chunk of the popular vote. Something the Reps will want to avoid at all costs. Since it will effect the down ticket races too.

Even if Johnson does well, I don't see it ushering in any age of third parties. The structural impediments to any third party in the American political system are just too strong. Historically third parties have only done well for a cycle or so before either fading or the party system realigning. Either way you end up with two major parties at the end.

Typically, a major event occurs in one party and splinters off. The off shoot eventually overrides the old is all. If it was going to happen because of Trump, it would have already. He's just going to tank this election really bad, where it's going to take them a cycle to recover... if they choose to actually do so.
 
Even if Johnson does well, I don't see it ushering in any age of third parties. The structural impediments to any third party in the American political system are just too strong. Historically third parties have only done well for a cycle or so before either fading or the party system realigning. Either way you end up with two major parties at the end.

I wonder if the GOP brand is really dead, and if the Libertarian party could absorb large chunks of it.

At this point, women, LGBT people, African Americans, Hispanics, Muslims, moderates, and college educated whites are turned off by the party. There is polling that shows people actually believe the party itself is racist, and that was before the whole Trump fiasco. If they want to be a national party, how do you rehabilitate that? I feel like you just have to turn into the same thing with a different label.
 
I wonder if the GOP brand is really dead, and if the Libertarian party could absorb large chunks of it.

At this point, women, LGBT people, African Americans, Hispanics, Muslims, moderates, and college educated whites are turned off by the party. There is polling that shows people actually believe the party itself is racist, and that was before the whole Trump fiasco. If they want to be a national party, how do you rehabilitate that? I feel like you just have to turn into the same thing with a different label.
I think someone with Obama-like charisma and a socially liberal platform could resuscitate it. I can't think of anyone in the party that actually fits that description, but perhaps there's a unicorn out there.
 
I think someone with Obama-like charisma and a socially liberal platform could resuscitate it. I can't think of anyone in the party that actually fits that description, but perhaps there's a unicorn out there.

The problem is, that person isn't getting out of the primary. If we could somehow get rid of the primary process, and just name this person, ya. That might work.

I think a socially moderate but fiscally conservative party could get enough of the vote to eek out a win. The thing is, they're going to have to fix their demographic problems somehow.
 

dLMN8R

Member
It would be nice if all these people claiming they'll vote for Johnson actually understood the policies that Johnson stood for.

Instead, he's just the reactionary bullshit you end up when you decide to uncritically believe all the nonsense out there about Hillary.
 
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