I think the main problem is that they're finding inspiration in how to innovate the game from the wrong places. When Bungie looked for inspiration, they specifically targeted ways to enable players to customize their own experience. Halo 2 added more customization to game modes, more customization for their in-game identity, and there was even an attempt to make theater which was cancelled for Halo 2. Halo 3 brought in Forge, theater, more customization with the custom games, and equipment which was a feature that, while most didn't like, could be switched off if players were so inclined to. With Reach, they focused heavily on Forge, again increasing the abilities of the players to make their own fun experiences. The major thing they screwed up with in Reach was armor abilities being so baked into the gameplay that it pretty much had to be a thing in any of the stock maps.
If they couldn't realize the mistake that was to mess with the core combat design after Reach, it should have been painfully obvious with Halo 4. Combine that with the fact that the game isn't launching with those features that the past games had to lift up the player's abilities to create more engaging experiences, you're doomed.
I'd like to say it has me worried that they have consistently delayed features like Forge and Theater with every single release showing they don't understand how integral that is to the game but I'm past worried about it. Seeing a trailer or gameplay, no matter how good it looks, often leaves me excited for a few hours then the reality sets in. I've been let down too many times to trust anything that releases now will be as spectacular as Halo as a franchise deserves.
As a long time Halo PC player, I know that if they had announced Halo 1 through Reach were going to be releasing on Steam shortly before Halo 4 released, I would have literally been crying tears of joy. When they announced it now, I was excited but expected exactly what's happened so far to take place. It's a sad state of affairs.
I don't mind iterations on gameplay but it really went with a split of there is MLG or there is Warzone and nothing in between. I can live with abilities and sprint etc too, I like most of the H5 implementations over H4 but late life H4 actually had many things stripped back to core gameplay and was very enjoyable; the maps too were pretty great in the later DLC but got fuck all exposure and by then the population had pissed off anyway. The trouble with H5 was too many forge maps in place of developer curated maps and missing that "default" 4v4 and BTB experiences altogether in place of WZ or arena. I've always said I want custom games browser/filtering and to enable the community designs and developments of maps and gametypes to "level up" from the more successful forge/customs that arise to the studio getting hands on itself. This invests in what works and doesn't have to end up with straight up 50% forge maps in matchmaking either. It gives goals and rewards to the community content creators to take their content and run with it while showcasing and ensuring better results from studio resources on maps/modes being invested in. The studio is always free to have their own maps/mods and take on things as well, for a studio the size of 343 it feels really piss poor to constantly hear about the lack of resources or decisions to go a certain way instead of investing in smaller more agile teams to deliver. Look at Rare and Sea of Thieves with their split teams and release cycle of every 3 months. It's fucking AAA grade and way beyond what 343 has ever done. Game release wise the biggest goals 343 kicked were H4 graphics, H5 Firefight, H5 sandbox/weapons/movement/balance, WZ was partially a success, soundtracks and their Forge team.
I have to agree with the worry about 343 game releases and features, their track record is quite shit actually, there's some good stuff there but the stability and what they choose to focus on misses the mark every time. They literally have released broken product many times, lack features or direction that fans want and take a long time to fix things. They've taken a step back and gone all out with platform (Xbox Series X), game engine (slipspace) and studio (back to roots) but whether this works to transform from the curators of Halo to standing as a AAA first party studio making their own Halo to produce a genre leading/breaking game remains to be seen big time.
My Infinite wish list is this -
1. A fucking super stable and fast game, loads fast, matchmaking that just works (99.5% of the time). No more MCC, party chat, matchmaking bullshit problems. Sort it the fuck out.
2. A campaign that makes me want to replay it so many times like H1 & H2 did. Focus on Master Chief, fuck the Cortana stories, we've rescued her enough. Focus on Blue Team, simply take Nylund books and put that shit in game.
3. Massive investment in PvE/progression modes (not fucking grinding or RNG) that lead to end game sustain e.g. Destiny 2 strikes, raids, progression, coop online with a fireteam. There is a world of enjoyable "fair" online play that is just dying for Xbox/343 to showcase what Azure and Halo could deliver. This is where the new engine and studio pipeline needs to be churning content out every "season", they miss this sort of streamlined sustain of content and I'm fucking out with Halo. Screw waiting 5 years bullshit. Think constant releases of story, side stories, different playable characters, progression, procedural systems etc.
4. Fuck esports and fuck MLG/HCS. They've had game after game of focus and serious spotlight of resources invested from the studio and Halo in general. Time to shift gears back to what made Halo popular, default 4v4/BTB and having buddies play together. MLG/HCS were flow on communities from that, they're never as popular as the default game. We don't let grifball or action sack dictate the core Halo experience why the fuck do we enable esports to control the game and maps/modes? Bungie got sick of that shit too, it was always an in house cat fight between default and MLG, just like the community in fights still today (even Destiny still has competitive folk pushing devs left and right). Time for Halo to return to its roots, show me esports isn't the dominant player. MCC matchmaking pools currently highlight to me how little 343 is willing to make such moves, literally MLG/HCS maps and modes dominant the weightings and games you play. FFS halo 2 burial mounds doesn't even show up as a flag or bomb games, coagulation slayer ain't anywhere either. Pathetic and I could go on and on with examples of those. Mixer/Xbox pay Ninja what 25 MIllion. How many fucking Halo maps and modes could be developed for that? How many Forge contests to get designs/mods for the studio to work with could be run as cash price competitions. The lack of creativity worries me, it's very cookie cutter esports/streaming focus, let the content create that viral marketing not the marketing create the content.
5. Graphics and immersion in the Halo world that are basically like the UE5 demo. Fucking bring it Xbox/343, no excuses on the new hardware, engine and tools.
6. Multiplayer that is fair and consistent for an Australian to play and easy to use partying that always works. They focus on USA and/or esports again and I'm fucking out here as well. There's far better games to enjoy my time with these days. Look at games like Fortnite and Apex where there is so much to do besides just slayer engagements on a small esports map. The aspects of looting, hiding to win a game, squad strategy, filters for searching by your specific region etc etc. There is a huge catch up for Halo in this regard, 5 years have passed and other developers have enabled their entire playerbase and skill levels to enjoy their games beyond hyper communication and twitch aiming for gunfights of the 1%. Halo needs to balance the masses vs the highly skilled or multiplayer is going to have the same issues 10% top tier squads/players destroying the population within the first few months like Halo 4/5. PvE modes and replayable campaign curtail much of this but if multiplayer is a binary choice between all symmetrical MLG/HCS maps or little solo affect on a game in WZ for you and your buddies with little else to do then it's done, put a fork in Halo.
I totally agree with you that inspiration from the community and enabling them to fully mod/design/develop Halo is one of the keys to success. Bring it full circle where the goods funnel back into the studio for curation and Q&A for the masses to enjoy. At any time during H3-H5 had studios allowed the community to push things forward beyond basic console based Forge the popularity would have sky rocketed consistently. It's still painfully ironic MS owns Minecraft and doesn't understand the community content creating back to the masses cycle enough to fully exploit it.
Despite all my bitching here I do truly look forward to Infinite, I won't lie though and have to say 343 are on thin ice with this Halo fan and squad mates.