Yeah I want him to give a list of his checks and why he chose to check them. Including, of course, last night's check, I don't want to say too much more on the subject until we get that info.
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Animal Crossing Mafia |OT| - Making Animal Friends Is Awesome!
- Thread starter Karkador
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Yeah I want him to give a list of his checks and why he chose to check them. Including, of course, last night's check, I don't want to say too much more on the subject until we get that info.
What does that mean?
You asked what happened to me going after Eze and I showed you a post I made earlier in the day saying that I suspect Eze. I don't know what else you're looking for, lol.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
HOW MANY POPCORN EATING GIFS DO YOU HAVE, DO YOU JUST STOCKPILE THEM
so over the course of two days everything you've got is summed up in a single line. k
EzekelRAGE
Member
Hobo - I explained my reasoning for switching the Hobo vote. I'd also like to point out the fact that if nothing changed after my vote (KK not voting for Salva), Hobo wouldve been evicted that day.
KK - I explained my reasoning for KK.
EzekelRAGE
Member
in parenthesis is pose to be KK voting for Salva.
So, as you can all see, we remain not dead. That's pretty weird if Franconp really is the town investigator. Seems like a pretty silly role to leave alive this late in the game when the HHA just need to live a few more days without their cover being blown.
Like, obviously the two of us won't make it the end since we're sure one of us is HHA. So if, as you all seem to be assuming, I'm HHA, I have literally no value left in the game. My power had been used and my cover is blown. So why would we still be alive? An investigator getting lucky is by far the most dangerous losing condition for the HHA left.
The only reason to be left alive is if the HHA in the house has some credibility left and can sway the town in the wrong direction. I clearly don't, but my roommate sure does.
Or, I guess we could both be town, but us not being dead in that case is even nuttier.
Just kill us both, get down to one HHA and have a pretty good chance of sniffing the last one out over the course of a few days. If we get edicted today the town will either win immediately or, most likely, have a 7-1 advantage after someone dies overnight. That's a really good shot.
Someone will probably say that this is just reverse psychology trying to get the town waste an eviction, but it really won't be. It's an eviction that has to happen eventually that apparently the HHA isn't willing to do and will eliminate almost the entirety of their voting power.
Vote:Ultron87
Like, obviously the two of us won't make it the end since we're sure one of us is HHA. So if, as you all seem to be assuming, I'm HHA, I have literally no value left in the game. My power had been used and my cover is blown. So why would we still be alive? An investigator getting lucky is by far the most dangerous losing condition for the HHA left.
The only reason to be left alive is if the HHA in the house has some credibility left and can sway the town in the wrong direction. I clearly don't, but my roommate sure does.
Or, I guess we could both be town, but us not being dead in that case is even nuttier.
Just kill us both, get down to one HHA and have a pretty good chance of sniffing the last one out over the course of a few days. If we get edicted today the town will either win immediately or, most likely, have a 7-1 advantage after someone dies overnight. That's a really good shot.
Someone will probably say that this is just reverse psychology trying to get the town waste an eviction, but it really won't be. It's an eviction that has to happen eventually that apparently the HHA isn't willing to do and will eliminate almost the entirety of their voting power.
Vote:Ultron87
it doesn't seem like you're approaching this constructively
ouro was also active
Well, damn.
I've been chewing over this in the back of my head since the day started, and now I'm making myself type it out, even though I don't know that I'm sure of anything any more.
In short, this is going to be a mess. I apologize.
Who do I think is the HHA?
Ultron - Let's put it this way: One of the roomies is almost certainly HHA. I'm thinking that it's Ultron, but it doesn't really matter. We're going to have to deal with them at some point. Sooner might be better than later.
On the other hand, Ultron's actions of late, and especially that last post, make me a little nervous - He's voting for himself, and trying to make us evict him, which makes me worry about what the consequences of that would be, especially given what happened when we evicted Hobo.
I don't know for sure about another. I suspected Tomakasatnav the other day, but someone said we have a confirmed role for him. Ezekiel and Darryl would be next on my list of suspects. I think it might be someone who has been fighting fiercely for the town on the surface.
Who do I think is town?
Well, Me, for one.
Francorp - I'm inclined to think that putting a power role and the HHA in the same house makes a lot of sense, and I don't know that he would out Hobo if he were HHA, no matter how deeply Hobo were suspected.
Additionally, I think anyone Fran has cleared is probably okay. As I said earlier, I would love it if someone (Fran) went through and posted a list of what he has revealed so far.
Nin1000 - I'm inclined to believe that Nin is town, because I don't think there would be two HHA next to one another, or in my gossip group.
That being said, today I've found myself questioning a lot of the stuff that I've been assuming so far. Looking over my notes, I believe everyone left is clear except for the roomies. Which means that if we assume there's a fourth HHA, (and I do,) someone has me fooled.
What if one of the replacements can't be trusted? What if there is a second HHA in my gossip group? What if Fran is lying? I've made a false assumption somewhere, and damned if I can see it.
So there are my thoughts. Do what you will with them.
I've been chewing over this in the back of my head since the day started, and now I'm making myself type it out, even though I don't know that I'm sure of anything any more.
In short, this is going to be a mess. I apologize.
Who do I think is the HHA?
Ultron - Let's put it this way: One of the roomies is almost certainly HHA. I'm thinking that it's Ultron, but it doesn't really matter. We're going to have to deal with them at some point. Sooner might be better than later.
On the other hand, Ultron's actions of late, and especially that last post, make me a little nervous - He's voting for himself, and trying to make us evict him, which makes me worry about what the consequences of that would be, especially given what happened when we evicted Hobo.
I don't know for sure about another. I suspected Tomakasatnav the other day, but someone said we have a confirmed role for him. Ezekiel and Darryl would be next on my list of suspects. I think it might be someone who has been fighting fiercely for the town on the surface.
Who do I think is town?
Well, Me, for one.
Francorp - I'm inclined to think that putting a power role and the HHA in the same house makes a lot of sense, and I don't know that he would out Hobo if he were HHA, no matter how deeply Hobo were suspected.
Additionally, I think anyone Fran has cleared is probably okay. As I said earlier, I would love it if someone (Fran) went through and posted a list of what he has revealed so far.
Nin1000 - I'm inclined to believe that Nin is town, because I don't think there would be two HHA next to one another, or in my gossip group.
That being said, today I've found myself questioning a lot of the stuff that I've been assuming so far. Looking over my notes, I believe everyone left is clear except for the roomies. Which means that if we assume there's a fourth HHA, (and I do,) someone has me fooled.
What if one of the replacements can't be trusted? What if there is a second HHA in my gossip group? What if Fran is lying? I've made a false assumption somewhere, and damned if I can see it.
So there are my thoughts. Do what you will with them.
that wasn't the point i was trying to make and was he really that active?
"not approaching this constructively" I suppose you might be right as I seem to be deconstructing a lot more, although I'm sure that's not what you meant.
So you have some interesting town reads, I'd like to hear what you think of myself, RNH, and Ezekal
RNH, I believe, is town via Francorp. (I think.) If I trust Fran, by association I must trust RNH.
You and Zeke are harder. My initial read is that you are both okay, because you both seem to be working hard for the town. Also, I believe you are both replacements like me, and I tend to believe that HHA players are less likely to idle out of the game. It's certainly possible, but I doubt it.
But again, I'm questioning a lot of those assumptions.
Yea, it's like. I'm not gonna have time to respond to these posts of yours:
I'm just not. You can vote me out. That's a pointless assumption for you to make.
I wasn't asking for you to post constantly but you said you'd been on ezekal from days ago and in spite of him being very active the amount of detail in your observations and number of suspicious stuff you found was woeful, were you really paying attention to what he was doing? and if so why did you continue to call him suspicious when you have so very little to go on?
Now that we know two HHA there should be a ton of context to gain from looking at their previous posts and actions. Can probably figure out some stuff about the current players through that. We should really do that instead of spending time making specious "reads" on the remaining people. Need to actually use the new information we gained from the evictions.
I'm going to bed, but hey, just a thought.
I'm going to bed, but hey, just a thought.
I actually posted a quick recap of who I found suspicious while I was at work in response to your call to arms so people could have stuff to work with. Then you came outta nowhere and asked what happened to me finding that guy suspicious. I said I still found him suspicious (which I then referenced the post I had just made) and said that I was on his case still. At no point in all of this have I had the time or the energy to make a full blown accusatory post implicating him in anything. And that time or energy isn't gonna pop out of the ground especially when you're hassling me over this trivial shit.
tomakasatnav
Member
Need to catch up on today's posts (which I'll hopefully be able to do on the train shortly), but just to post my light sleeper stuff:
No activity last night in my area
No activity last night in my area
Busy day yesterday and just finished catching up.
Here are all the investigations I did so far and why I did them:
Night 1: Razmos. I already said why I did this one. I wanted to know how the role worked and what info would I get. That's why I wanted to target someone with a role and the only ones who admited having a role the first day were Razmos, Mazre, Ultron and me. Ultron was out of the question because even if I investigated him I couldn't do much with the info as evicting him would mean evicting me, also I didn't know what roles were in play so maybe the investigation wouldn't work. To decide between Razmos and Mazre I flipped a coin, at that point in the game it was the same, we didn't have info of any of them.
Night 2: Timeaisis. I found it weird his change of attitude towards me. The first day he defended Ultron and me saying it wouldn't be good to evict us as it may be best for HHA but the second day he was trying to get us evicted saying it would provide more info. I found that strange. I thought he may be HHA who tried to evicted us the first night phase and couldn't so he tried to push for a daytime eviction. Take in consideration that we still didn't know if the HHA have a way to evict 2 players and tried to evict us before and were blocked.
Night 3: Mazre. After I roleclaimed there were some doubts about if I was lying or not. Mazre offered himself to be investigated to prove my role and several players agreed with him. Someone said Kingkitty but he didn't wanted to me posting his role. I decided to investigate Mazre to prove my role and get that out of the way.
Night 4: Hobohodo. This is pretty obvious. Hobohodo was very suspicious being between 2 gossip chats and almost was evicted the previous day phase. He turned up being HHA.
Night 5: RobotNinjaHornet. After Hobohodo eviction there were 2 players I was suspicious: RobotNinjaHornet and Kingkitty. Both of them did some strange voting and post when Salvapot was evicted. RobotNinjaHornet said he didn't wanted to evict Hobohodo because he may be beneficial to town and protected him. I decided to investigate him to see if he was protecting a fellow HHA.
Nigh 6: Haly. I wasn't still much convinced with Haly. I had two suspects at the top when this night phase started: Nin1000 and Haly. I decided to investigate Haly over Nin1000 when Ourobolus was found HHA. I didn't thought there would be 2 HHA in the same gossip group. Also I thought that if I was to be alive at the start of this phase it would mean that the HHA are down to only two members, one being Ultron and the other one would be in serious danger. The member who was most suspected the last phase after Kingkitty and Ourobolus was Nin1000.
Here is a list of my most trusted and suspicious remaining players:
Most Trusted: Timeaisis, RobotNinjaHornet and Razmos. I investigated all of them so they are clear to me.
Trusted: squidyj. Squidyj was true about Ourobolus so he gained a lot of trust from me.
Grey Area: EzekelRage, Toma, Retrogamer42 and Darryl. I still don't know about them. I'm leaning towards town for all of them.
Suspicious: Nin1000. As I said before, he was pretty suspicious the previous phase and that suspicious raised when I wasn't evicted the last night phase.
Almost sure HHA: Ultron. That's the only way I stayed alive for so long.
Here are all the investigations I did so far and why I did them:
Night 1: Razmos. I already said why I did this one. I wanted to know how the role worked and what info would I get. That's why I wanted to target someone with a role and the only ones who admited having a role the first day were Razmos, Mazre, Ultron and me. Ultron was out of the question because even if I investigated him I couldn't do much with the info as evicting him would mean evicting me, also I didn't know what roles were in play so maybe the investigation wouldn't work. To decide between Razmos and Mazre I flipped a coin, at that point in the game it was the same, we didn't have info of any of them.
Night 2: Timeaisis. I found it weird his change of attitude towards me. The first day he defended Ultron and me saying it wouldn't be good to evict us as it may be best for HHA but the second day he was trying to get us evicted saying it would provide more info. I found that strange. I thought he may be HHA who tried to evicted us the first night phase and couldn't so he tried to push for a daytime eviction. Take in consideration that we still didn't know if the HHA have a way to evict 2 players and tried to evict us before and were blocked.
Night 3: Mazre. After I roleclaimed there were some doubts about if I was lying or not. Mazre offered himself to be investigated to prove my role and several players agreed with him. Someone said Kingkitty but he didn't wanted to me posting his role. I decided to investigate Mazre to prove my role and get that out of the way.
Night 4: Hobohodo. This is pretty obvious. Hobohodo was very suspicious being between 2 gossip chats and almost was evicted the previous day phase. He turned up being HHA.
Night 5: RobotNinjaHornet. After Hobohodo eviction there were 2 players I was suspicious: RobotNinjaHornet and Kingkitty. Both of them did some strange voting and post when Salvapot was evicted. RobotNinjaHornet said he didn't wanted to evict Hobohodo because he may be beneficial to town and protected him. I decided to investigate him to see if he was protecting a fellow HHA.
Nigh 6: Haly. I wasn't still much convinced with Haly. I had two suspects at the top when this night phase started: Nin1000 and Haly. I decided to investigate Haly over Nin1000 when Ourobolus was found HHA. I didn't thought there would be 2 HHA in the same gossip group. Also I thought that if I was to be alive at the start of this phase it would mean that the HHA are down to only two members, one being Ultron and the other one would be in serious danger. The member who was most suspected the last phase after Kingkitty and Ourobolus was Nin1000.
Here is a list of my most trusted and suspicious remaining players:
Most Trusted: Timeaisis, RobotNinjaHornet and Razmos. I investigated all of them so they are clear to me.
Trusted: squidyj. Squidyj was true about Ourobolus so he gained a lot of trust from me.
Grey Area: EzekelRage, Toma, Retrogamer42 and Darryl. I still don't know about them. I'm leaning towards town for all of them.
Suspicious: Nin1000. As I said before, he was pretty suspicious the previous phase and that suspicious raised when I wasn't evicted the last night phase.
Almost sure HHA: Ultron. That's the only way I stayed alive for so long.
You know that Town players cant evict other players in the night phase mate.
so you have to overthink that.
I don't think you are a town player. I think you and Ultron are our last HHA.
Well thats what you think, i for one know that I am town player , i am not sure about you mate. But thats something that wont change so i will deal with it
Come on man, give us some more to work with since we've seen those kind of posts from you the last couple of days.
tomakasatnav
Member
I know! I've been awful. First train didn't have wifi but I'm on the second now.
I'm surprised by Haly, I had him pegged as HHA after involvement with Mayor vote and immediately dismissing chance of some roles having diagonal movement.
I'm kinda leaning towards the Fran/Ultron vote today.
They're still alive, despite one being an Investigator
If Fran is Town, that's no good but at least we've got some regular Town people that he's 'cleared'
If Fran is HHA, hooray!
If they're both Town, we'd risk losing 3 Town tonight - what are the numbers looking like, might soon reach a point where that would be game over completely if we voted them another night
I'm surprised by Haly, I had him pegged as HHA after involvement with Mayor vote and immediately dismissing chance of some roles having diagonal movement.
I'm kinda leaning towards the Fran/Ultron vote today.
They're still alive, despite one being an Investigator
If Fran is Town, that's no good but at least we've got some regular Town people that he's 'cleared'
If Fran is HHA, hooray!
If they're both Town, we'd risk losing 3 Town tonight - what are the numbers looking like, might soon reach a point where that would be game over completely if we voted them another night
Would you like some more coffee with you cake,?
Alright so. We have Razmos Timeaisis and RNH who have been checked and are alive, of them I consider RNH to be quite towny Razmos to be pretty towny and TImeaisis to be a giant fucking question-mark.
I think there are two distinct arguments for lynching. one of which would be significantly stronger if Franconp had picked literally any other target to investigate.
1. there's a mafia between them. Most people it seems have either ultron or franconp on their scum list, myself included.
2. Killing Franconp gives us a significant amount of information and potentially 3 confirmed town. I'm willing to call Razmos confirmed town in this scenario, I think we've seen enough to suggest that mafia role names will likely be distinct and the way razmos has played would suggest he is town regardless. Of course if Franconp is mafia aligned then we have gained less information (but we lynched a mafia!).
So there are 4 possible scenarios and I'd like to enumerate. I'm going to start by making the assumption that there are still 3 mafia in the game.
Franco - Town, Ultron - Town (Scenario 1)
The worst outcome, we would go to 5-3 the next day. Of those 5, there would be 4 people who are as town as can be imo, we would have myself, ezekal, razmos, rnh, and timeaisis and mafia would kill in that group of 5 in the night. That would give us an excellent chance to lynch mafia every day and win the game.
Franco - Mafia, Ultron - Town (Scenario 2)
This one is pretty bad as far as the spread of outcomes go. We lynch a mafia which is great but we realize that anything and everything franco told us could be a lie. we go to 6-2 and we're looking at nin and likely timeaisis as the last mafia.
Franco - Town, Ultron - Mafia (Scenario 3)
This is pretty great, we get to confirm our townies AND kill a mafia. we go into the next day with 6 townies 3 of which are absolutely confirmed with another one being a strong town player.
Franco - Mafia, Ultron - Mafia (Scenario 4)
yay? we win the video game? Highly unlikely when I look at who is pushing for the evictions of these two dudes. We would go to 7-1
So I don't think there's really a losing proposition in lynching the roomies today but we'd be in a much better spot if franco had investigated someone who was so clearly town and so clearly going to die in the night. He could have proven himself town if he'd found another mafia or we could have added another person to our confirmed town circle. The fact that he went with Haly, to me, is kind of suspicious.
If we don't want to lynch the roomies then the next bet is nin, he's had an interesting voting history, his reads today have been weird and nonsensical. he's probably HHA. I actually think that if we're just hunting mafia then lynching nin is the best eviction but strategically the roomies play out better.
Vote: Franconp
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
So I agree with Squidyj, I think it's about time to send the Roomies along to Taco Valley. At this point, I feel like there's little to lose and more to gain by evicting them.
I'm not ready to vote yet, though. I don't want to commit before we're ready, especially if others start jumping on this train of thought. Time is on our side during the day phase, so I want to see what else we find out before I commit my vote.
I am curious about this, though. Why 3? Or is this just a typo?
I'm not ready to vote yet, though. I don't want to commit before we're ready, especially if others start jumping on this train of thought. Time is on our side during the day phase, so I want to see what else we find out before I commit my vote.
I am curious about this, though. Why 3? Or is this just a typo?
why wouldn't i believe in 3? we know we started with at least 4, 3 in the main group and 1 outcast. doesn't mean there weren't more and I think a game of this size would support 5 mafia. I don't think anyone should rule out the idea that we started with 5 mafia, that would be dangerous. It's possible that we only started with 4, but a game like that feels far too easy for town to win.
Okay, I was just curious if there was a particular reason that you thought there might be more. I've been assuming 4, but I agree that it makes sense to not rule out more.
Yea no need to rush through this day. I agree with the roomie evict as a fall back. The biggest case I can see for getting them out today now that so much time has passed is out of fear that neither of them are actually HHA. In that case we would absolutely be fucked. They should've gone earlier.
I don't wanna put my vote out so early either, in case it gets gamed. I'm really suspicious as to why the last match was so close. We almost had a no evict and KK. I only voted for Ouro because I felt like it was gg and I wanted to lock in so I could focus on other things. So why, after it looked so wrapped up, did things change?
We should bring this up. What happened in the last match that caused a near 3 way tie?. Ouro was on the way out. We knew this. I noticed something key at the end of the last match. Ouro was prepared to change his vote. .
In that period of time, there were obviously 3+(?) HHA members acting in coordination to fuck the votes and lead to a KK/No evict.
I don't wanna put my vote out so early either, in case it gets gamed. I'm really suspicious as to why the last match was so close. We almost had a no evict and KK. I only voted for Ouro because I felt like it was gg and I wanted to lock in so I could focus on other things. So why, after it looked so wrapped up, did things change?
We should bring this up. What happened in the last match that caused a near 3 way tie?. Ouro was on the way out. We knew this. I noticed something key at the end of the last match. Ouro was prepared to change his vote. .
In that period of time, there were obviously 3+(?) HHA members acting in coordination to fuck the votes and lead to a KK/No evict.
All right, I'm hoping this helps. (Because I just spent an hour on it when I should have been doing homework.) I made a timeline of the votes over the last in-game day.
The columns are sorted by who ended the day with the most votes. Green squares are either new votes, or votes that came after an unvote. Red squares are straight unvotes. Yellow squares are voting changes. In this case, the old vote is struck through, and the new vote is normal.
My assessment:
Ultron saved his vote until the last twenty minutes, then voted for Kingkitty.
Nin1000, did a fair amount of swapping around, though to me it read as him being unsure more than any devious design. He was told by Ezekal at the last minute to vote for Kingkitty, and so he did. Suspicious? Sure. But it could also be explainable.
And yes, Ouro was clearly waiting for the last second to change his vote.
My vote mostly just ensured that it wouldn't be a No Evict. Felt like King might be scum and wanted my use of the ability to matter. If I wanted to fuck with it in HHA favor I would've voted Ouro way earlier and swapped at the last minute. Clearly I'd have nothing to lose at this point were I actually HHA.
My problem with your explanation is the same as my problem with your ability. I don't see how forcing us to choose two people in a day helps the town. Maybe if we each got two votes, sure, but the way this ability was set up, (and your decision to come in at the last second for force a second eviction) you're forcing a fast decision, which, in my experience, leads to mistakes.
You're trying to make it sound like town, but those read like HHA moves to me.
Also, voting for Ouro early and swapping back could have easily backfired - what if we had managed to hit majority when you weren't looking?
Anyway, I have to get to homework now, Just putting my thoughts out there.
that's the one I was waiting for.
Thanks for finally thinkig that highly
Franco - Town, Ultron - Mafia (Scenario 3)
This is pretty great, we get to confirm our townies AND kill a mafia. we go into the next day with 6 townies 3 of which are absolutely confirmed with another one being a strong town player.
tomakasatnav
Member
I'm also inclined to vote for nin1000
I'm probably not much use, my power is out there and probably in someway 'playable' in terms of HHA maybe doing activity in my area if they feel like they can sway who we think is active and I've got no idea who HHA are, would have been saying Haly but he got killed off and was Town.
It seems drastic like using the nuke codes, but the housemates seem like they'll give us the most info? It's a big question that's not gonna go away and numbers wise I'm not sure how long is going to be a 'viable' option since losing 3 Town in one move might be the end of us later on?
Why did Kalor as light sleeper get killed off and not me? Probably as I'm more suspicious and posting less, rather than being anything to do with his area? Can't look at map while replying on phone
I'm probably not much use, my power is out there and probably in someway 'playable' in terms of HHA maybe doing activity in my area if they feel like they can sway who we think is active and I've got no idea who HHA are, would have been saying Haly but he got killed off and was Town.
It seems drastic like using the nuke codes, but the housemates seem like they'll give us the most info? It's a big question that's not gonna go away and numbers wise I'm not sure how long is going to be a 'viable' option since losing 3 Town in one move might be the end of us later on?
Why did Kalor as light sleeper get killed off and not me? Probably as I'm more suspicious and posting less, rather than being anything to do with his area? Can't look at map while replying on phone
Those 2 things should indeed be considered toma.
While we wait for more thoughts from other players let me just give you a fine recipe
Italian Iced Coffee Dessert
tomakasatnav
Member
I meant much use in terms of applying my power role but whatever
I always find those posting lots more suspicious, so as Mafia I'm normally keeping those guys in to deflect.
I also like whoever it was who worked out how to say my name properly earlier in the thread.
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