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[SuperEpicMan]

I kinda agree with Gruber that if the stainless steel model is $500 what's the point of the Sportmodel? A sapphire screen, ceramic back, and nicer finish seems pretty good for an extra $150.

Seems more "Apple-like" to limit the number of SKUs on release and then sell the original model of the stainless steel model (at $400, for example) at a discount when they launch a revision.

I think the said the Sport version was better for fitness stuff because it was more sweat-resistant or something. It just seems like kinda a weak reason for it to exist if it's only slightly cheaper.

I can see them selling the Sport version as more water proof, robust, and lighter. Functionally the same, but you have the option of spending a bit more for something a bit more classy, either than or they drop the price of the Sport to $300.

 

[Kysen]

I've bought the new iPhone every year since 2007.
I can't be alone in this.

This isn't hard to do when they keep their value compared to the competition.

 

[badcrumble]

It's not like the Sport model looks like a cheap piece of garbage (though I bet it'll be limited to Sport bands for upsell's sake) - aluminum and Gorilla Glass is something people are generally fine with in iPhones, after all.

But yeah, I think a lot of people are going to find the stainless steel/sapphire/link bracelet combo especially attractive, and it's going to be priced beyond what a lot of people can afford (especially if there's no way to upgrade without purchasing an entire new watch).

 

[Fliesen]

I have no interest in spending the extra $150. The point of the Sports Model is for someone like me who wants a Smart Watch but doesn't really care about the nicer finish.

"what's the point of the iPhone 5S if the iPhone 6 is just $100 more expensive"

500 vs. 350 is an extra 42%.
I don't think that's such a marginal difference as Gruber pretends it to be.

for the price of 2 steel watches, i'd almost get 2 sports watches and a third one on top of that.

The sport model could act like the 16 gb version of iPhones and iPads in the sense that I imagine a lot of people see them and say to themselves that for only $100 more they could get something much better.

funnily, i find the sports watch to be the visually most appealing one.
we don't have information about how much of a difference the sapphire vs. gorilla glass is going to make, but right now, i wouldn't feel tempted to get the stainless steel version, because - while the regular glass on the sport might be slightly less prone to scratches, the polished stainless steel is gonna get scuffed like an old iPod touch

 

[Chris R]

Are we getting a thread for the meeting tomorrow?

Spoiler

Hope there really is a Mac announcement and I hope it comes at the start

 

[LyleLanley]

Are we getting a thread for the meeting tomorrow?

Spoiler

Hope there really is a Mac announcement and I hope it comes at the start

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=999953

 

[Danchi]

I have no interest in spending the extra $150. The point of the Sports Model is for someone like me who wants a Smart Watch but doesn't really care about the nicer finish.

But they don't make, say, plastic laptops for people who don't care about the finish.

I guess the precedent is the iPhone 5C, but I always thought that was for maybe a younger audience/people who wanted a little more customisation and colour. It looked different enough for it to exist whereas you probably wouldn't notice the difference between the aluminium and the stainless steel on someone's wrist.

They also didn't launch a new model of the 5C so I dunno how happy they are with that experiment.

 

[Dreamwriter]

I think the Apple Watch Stainless Steel won't cost more than $500. If you think about it, the majority of Apple's target consumers for this product likely have never owned a smart watch before, a price tag which is more than $500 dollars is going to put people off buying this as it is a product which is completely new to them and they have lived with out so far.

But that's what the Sport is for, people who don't want to spend a lot of money on a product they aren't sure of. When $350 can get you an Apple Watch, why would a deluxe version (with no extra functionality or better electronics) have to be a max of $150 more?

Personally I'm budgeting $1000 for the Space Black Stainless Steel Apple Watch, and as for usefulness, I can make my own apps, so I can make sure it's useful

I think they said the Sport version was better for fitness stuff because it was more sweat-resistant or something? It just seems like kinda a weak reason for it to exist if it's only slightly cheaper.

The screen using Gorilla Glass is important for active folks. Like, sure it's harder to scratch sapphire, but sapphire is easier to break and shatter.

 

[Fliesen]

But they don't make, say, plastic laptops for people who don't care about the finish.

I guess the precedent is the iPhone 5C, but I always thought that was for maybe a younger audience/people who wanted a little more customisation and colour. It looked different enough for it to exist whereas you probably wouldn't notice the difference between the aluminium and the stainless steel on someone's wrist.

They also didn't launch a new model of the 5C so I dunno how happy they are with that experiment.

they didn't because the 5C just hit its niche this generation.

2013 it replaced the iPhone 5 (it is hardware-identical with the 5) so you had the 5S, the 5C and the 4S
this time, late 2014, it slipped down to where it was meant to be all along - the entry level.
iPhone 5C - iPhone 5S - iPhone 6 - (iPhone 6+)

you sure as hell can expect a 5C with the innards of the 5S later this year, as putting the 5S innards into the 5C shell should be trivial.

fall of next year should be exciting, when the new screen dimensions would need to hit the entry level. so either we'd get a larger 6C in late 2016 or Apple will actually maintain 3 different screen sizes. (i believe in the former.)

 

[LyleLanley]

they didn't because the 5C just hit its niche this generation.

2013 it replaced the iPhone 5 (it is hardware-identical with the 5) so you had the 5S, the 5C and the 4S
this time, late 2014, it slipped down to where it was meant to be all along - the entry level.
iPhone 5C - iPhone 5S - iPhone 6 - (iPhone 6+)

you sure as hell can expect a 5C with the innards of the 5S later this year, as putting the 5S innards into the 5C shell should be trivial.

fall of next year should be exciting, when the new screen dimensions would need to hit the entry level. so either we'd get a larger 6C in late 2016 or Apple will actually maintain 3 different screen sizes. (i believe in the former.)

I think it's more likely that the next budget phone from Apple is based on the 6. I imagine they want more people to get on board with Apple Pay.

 

[Danchi]

you sure as hell can expect a 5C with the innards of the 5S later this year, as putting the 5S innards into the 5C shell should be trivial.

fall of next year should be exciting, when the new screen dimensions would need to hit the entry level. so either we'd get a larger 6C in late 2016 or Apple will actually maintain 3 different screen sizes. (i believe in the former.)

Yeah, that makes sense. Do you not think they an interest in keeping a 4" form factor? Even now, I hear people anecdotally say that they prefer the smaller size for one-handed use (I'm one of them...).

It's not like they have any alternatives if Apple doesn't offer them that option though.

 

[DOWN]

Is this what happens every time Apple enters a new category? People hear about precision and think it means ridiculous pricing?

To what "shot down" event are your referring?

I liked Gruber's posts a lot. I think he intentionally high-balled the steel prices by 20% or so in order to head off at the pass the collective shit-fit-givers "see! It was below my expectations. you were way off!", but I do not think he's on a different planet. He has too many inside friends at Apple to be way off base.

The collective shit fit will be great, though. I wonder if I should sell my stock (I hold a decent chunk of it) before the unveil tomorrow

He was already confirmed wrong about only sport bands being sold separately. His whole band tiers thing is off with the stainless models.

 

[Fliesen]

Yeah, that makes sense. Do you not think they an interest in keeping a 4" form factor? Even now, I hear people anecdotally say that they prefer the smaller size for one-handed use (I'm one of them...).

It's not like they have any alternatives if Apple doesn't offer them that option though.

i, myself, prefer the smaller screen for one handed _use_ but for consumption of any kind of information, the bigger screen just wins. the extra screen real estate is simply worth the ergonomic trade-off imho.

 

[killer_clank]

Think the stainless steel will be there or there abouts at $500, but with a plastic band included. Gruber's pricing seems a bit high to me, especially for the mid tier ones. And his expectations for gold bands and such seem way crazy to me, at least for the initial watch. Apple have a strong brand without doubt but I'm not sure it extends to $20000 watches by any means.

 

[iMax]

So here's a question nobody's asking. Which band is the safest to wear from someone sleight-of-handing it off your wrist in a crowd, Derren Brown style?

 

[subrock]

So here's a question nobody's asking. Which band is the safest to wear from someone sleight-of-handing it off your wrist in a crowd, Derren Brown style?

Find my  Watch app?

 

[vwnut13]

The stainless steel link bracelet has links that are each different sizes and take hours to make, they are hand brushed too. These things are going to be a lot more expensive than people are expecting. Apple is going full luxury with these products for everything except the the Apple Watch Sport line.

And Hot Wheels are assembled by hand, and cost less than a dollar.

 

[Majine]

Find my  Watch app?

The Watch has no GPS built-in. It uses the iPhones GPS for map stuff.

I would guess the stainless steel band is the most theft proof, but I really have no idea.

 

[Bitmap Frogs]

I think the Apple Watch Stainless Steel won't cost more than $500. If you think about it, the majority of Apple's target consumers for this product likely have never owned a smart watch before, a price tag which is more than $500 dollars is going to put people off buying this as it is a product which is completely new to them and they have lived with out so far.

They're hyping on the website how it's special steel forged in the fires of a volcano and quenched in the tears of baby dragons.

They're gonna take one of the cheapest materials on earth and have people pay through the roof for it.

And hey, I am an iPhone user - just, I don't have to be blind to their practices.

 

[CreepingFear]

For what it's worth, on This Week in Tech, Leo Laporte said he has a good source that says the new redesigned Macbook Airs will be announced tomorrow. If so, this will be my first Mac computer. I've previously bought an iPad 3rd generation and bought my mother a Macbook Air 2011 for her 60th birthday. I still believe in Windows for desktop computers and gaming. If you checked out the Dell XPS 13 thread, I wanted to be seduced by the new XPS 13, but I found it disappointing.

 

[Two Words]

Are people really fooling themselves into thinking these watch bracelets aren't extremely cheap to make?

 

[JCreasy]

Think the stainless steel will be there or there abouts at $500, but with a plastic band included. Gruber's pricing seems a bit high to me, especially for the mid tier ones. And his expectations for gold bands and such seem way crazy to me, at least for the initial watch. Apple have a strong brand without doubt but I'm not sure it extends to $20000 watches by any means.

This would be ideal for me.

Also, I've decided I have to get my wife one too. It makes no sense for me to have one if I can't use it with my wife. I'm sure there are other folks in the same boat.

Any price they quote will be x 2 for some of us.

 

[subrock]

Are people really fooling themselves into thinking these watch bracelets aren't extremely cheap to make?

9 hours of production time? Hand Polished? For the stainless one at least, I don't think people are overestimating too much.

 

[infiniteloop]

steel apple watch @ $500? gonna be some tears tomorrow.

 

[Two Words]

9 hours of production time? Hand Polished? For the stainless one at least, I don't think people are overestimating too much.

Plenty of cheap products take a lot of time to be machined. And these people hand polishing it are probably getting paid pennies.

 

[mj1108]

Are people really fooling themselves into thinking these watch bracelets aren't extremely cheap to make?

It's all about perception. Part of which Apple has been doing by marketing it as a high end fashion accessory.

I wouldn't be surprised if the cost of materials was south of $100 per watch.

 

[Byakuya769]

It's all about perception. Part of which Apple has been doing by marketing it as a high end fashion accessory.

I wouldn't be surprised if the cost of materials was south of $100 per watch.

And having guys like Gruber acting as the vanguard for price disappointment.

If they really pursue such pricing, they resemble a luxury vehicle more than a luxury piece of jewelry.

 

[Alchemy]

If there are new MBAs tomorrow I'm holding out hope for a hardware refresh for the Pro Retinas. I wanna upgrade from my 2012 MBA.

 

[DOWN]

9 hours of production time? Hand Polished? For the stainless one at least, I don't think people are overestimating too much.

Hand finishes and long machining time are not inherently expensive. BioShock 1 had hand painted finish figures and it wasn't pricey at all compared to standard editions. There's a lot of metal products that take a long time to finish. Apple is playing this one up to clear success.

 

[Terrell]

But even if it was, I think it's going to be a bit of a tough sell given the price points. It's just not an essential product like a phone or laptop for a lot of us in the west, even a tablet like the iPad seems to be more of a useful product. For something that can use used for notifications, light interactions and light app usage I'm not sure that $350+ is going to be worth it for the masses. Who knows how it'll do, but I expect it to be a modest hit. At the very least it does look like a compelling product from a usage perspective, it's obvious that Apple spent a lot of time on the UX side of things.

An iPad is a more useful product by certain metrics. But it's certainly not an essential product.

iPod, iPad, Apple TV and now Apple Watch all fall into what can be called a "lifestyle" product category. And they have a history of selling lifestyle products very VERY well.

Even the Apple TV, which is barely a blip on the radar for most tech geeks and gets ZERO marketing outside of brief upgrade mentions and as a PR talking point, sustains healthy and growing sales.

In certain circles, Apple TV is nearly considered an essential purchase for cable-cutters. It's not essential by any stretch of the imagination and actually does even less than Apple Watch can in terms of raw functionality, but it's found its place as a lifestyle product for certain individuals and is a growing market.

I see a parallel with Apple Watch in that regard. With the growing distaste people have with either themselves or others not being able to detach from their iPhones (someone at a dinner event I was at actually used the Heston "from my cold dead hands" quote when asked to put away their phone), among other reasons, there is a new market growing among people who want a solution. It fits a particular lifestyle desire and it's a market (albeit currently a niche market) that will only continue growing. The only question we can't seem to answer right now is just how big that niche market is currently.

A product's sales potential will never be properly measurable by how essential it is or even necessarily by feature set. It will always be measured by the lifestyle it caters to.

 

[Deleted member 22576]

It's gonna be worth the price of admission alone just to test out the limits of the gesture control making the display turn on and off. I glance my watch all the time while I'm driving or riding my bike a lot of times it doesn't require a big motion since your arm is mostly in front of your face. Really curious about that part of it.

Half of myself is still thinking about wearing a normal watch alongside the apple watch.. In which case if probably want the gesture/watch features disabled, lol.

 

[Two Words]

Hand finishes and long machining time are not inherently expensive. BioShock 1 had hand painted finish figures and it wasn't pricey at all compared to standard editions. There's a lot of metal products that take a long time to finish. Apple is playing this one up to clear success.

Yeah, it's not like they have some pipeline in production that pops out 1 band in nine hours. They're ligely popping out thousands in those hours.

 

[DOWN]

Buzzfeed has some neat highlights posted on their countdown article, including an NYT quote from Ives about how strange it feels when they finally are done protecting it from public view:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mathonan/and-now-for-something-completely-different#.xd2Ln5kxmE

 

[Silentium]

The pricing discussion is so depressing and anxiety inducing.

I just want the stainless steel Apple Watch. I shouldn't have to worry about what it cost. But when it keeps coming up, it makes me question if I really need the watch - like I feel I'm being absurd. Mind you, I've bought the new iPhone every year since 2007.

I can't be alone in this.

My question would be why you think you deserve to buy the stainless steel edition for so little?

I think part of the probably here (and I think Apple could have clarified this better last year) is that the watch represents a new frontier in the intersection of technology and fashion. Put it another way, Apple's ethos is for computers as an appliance - so why wouldn't an Apple Watch cost a similar amount to those available from other manufacturers (Omega, Rolex, Panerai, hell even Seiko have $1,000+ watches). You only need to read the descriptions on the website for the different bands to get an idea of the positioning of the Apple Watch brand (extracted below). Part of the reason I think these estimates of $30-100 for different replacement bands are totally off - these aren't going to be products you cut out of blister packaging like a $15 HDMI cable.

If they really pursue such pricing, they resemble a luxury vehicle more than a luxury piece of jewelry.

No, they don't. $1,500 for a stainless steel link bracelet watch really isn't expensive for people who actually buy luxury goods. If you're someone who doesn't wear a watch or someone who wears a Timex watch, is it expensive? Sure. But you're probably not the target market.

The size of the global luxury goods market is estimated to hit $375B in 2020 combined with Apple attracting the CEO of Burberry into just a retail VP position, I think its clear that the Apple Watch may represent a new direction for Apple - I think they are going to try leveraging their brand to move aggressively into luxury goods.

Extra thought: I think the lower end of the Apple Watch models being the Sport edition is telling. I think the Apple Watch Sport is positioned almost as an accessory to an Apple Watch or Apple Watch Edition. Personally, $350 for a watch giving me the same function as my main Apple Watch or Edition but designed so I can use it as a 'beater' is a pretty good deal.

---

Crafted from the same 316L stainless steel alloy as the case, the Link Bracelet has more than 100 components. The machining process is so precise, it takes nearly nine hours to cut the links for a single band. In part that’s because they're not simply a uniform size, but subtly increase in width as they approach the case. Once assembled, the links are brushed by hand to ensure the texture follows the contours of the design.

A small French tannery established in 1803 produces the supple Granada leather for this elegant band. The smooth top-grain leather is lightly milled and tumbled to maintain its refined texture. What looks like a solid buckle is actually a two-piece magnetic closure that’s delightfully simple to secure. We also added an inner layer of Vectran weave for strength and stretch resistance. It’s the same material NASA used to make the landing airbags for the Mars Rover spacecraft.

The Venezia leather for this band is handcrafted in Naples, Italy. With an artisan heritage spanning five generations, the tannery has a history of partnership with some of the most prestigious names in fashion. A delicate milling and tumbling process yields a beautiful pebbled texture. This traditional craftsmanship is combined with an innovative approach to design. Magnets concealed within the soft, quilted leather allow you to simply wrap it around your wrist for a precise fit and a trim look.

 

[Two Words]

^Because it would feel like they're just pricing themselves into a certain class.

 

[Silentium]

^Because it would feel like they're just pricing themselves into a certain class.

I don't believe they'll be that explicit about it, but really it's a continuation of their existing strategy - Apple computers and phones are already far more expensive than 'comparable' products. Comparing the Apple Watch against a 'comparable product' I think is also where we run into some trouble. I don't think this is a competitor for the Moto 360, I think this is being positioned as a competitor for an Omega Speedmaster (or whatever).

Further, as I discussed with ZhugeEX earlier in the thread, I believe the Apple Watch (and definitely at least the Edition) is the first Apple product (after the 6+) primarily targeted at the APAC region, where I think these 'class concerns' will be of significantly lesser importance.

 

[DOWN]

I don't believe they'll be that explicit about it, but really it's a continuation of their existing strategy - Apple computers and phones are already far more expensive than 'comparable' products. Comparing the Apple Watch against a 'comparable product' I think is also where we run into some trouble. I don't think this is a competitor for the Moto 360, I think this is being positioned as a competitor for an Omega Speedmaster (or whatever).

Further, as I discussed with ZhugeEX earlier in the thread, I believe the Apple Watch (and definitely at least the Edition) is the first Apple product (after the 6+) primarily targeted at the APAC region, where I think these 'class concerns' will be of significantly lesser importance.

Far more is a perpetuated misconception. MacBook Air is similar price to other models of comparable specs and materials, and we all know that the 5K iMac price was a bombshell. Apple is premium, but not luxury.

 

[Silentium]

Far more is a perpetuated misconception. MacBook Air is similar price to other models of comparable specs and materials, and we all know that the 5K iMac price was a bombshell.

I agree. But that's the point. You've compared it against, well, what is should be compared against. However, you're in the vast minority with that understanding. Most people compare the Macbook Air to a $300 Windows laptop and come off with the impression that it's overpriced.

Apple is premium, but not luxury.

I think the Apple Watch may represent the turning point in that.

 

[Byakuya769]

No, they don't. $1,500 for a stainless steel link bracelet watch really isn't expensive for people who actually buy luxury goods. If you're someone who doesn't wear a watch or someone who wears a Timex watch, is it expensive? Sure. But you're probably not the target market.

Like a car, apple's watch will be worth less the moment you buy it and will never be worth more than it cost you. A nice luxury watch will see a small decline but can eventually appreciate. I have no problem dropping money on luxury jewelry. I invest in art. There is no way in hell I will ever pay $5,000-16,000 for something that is of minimal use and burns cash unless it is just remarkably fun. Luxury vehicles also pretty much do nothing but burn money, but they make a statement, are fun to drive and there isn't a similarly situated alternative. So you're right, I'm wrong.. Apple Watch is WORSE than luxury vehicles if Gruber is right on pricing.

 

[Terrell]

My question would be why you think you deserve to buy the stainless steel edition for so little?

I think part of the probably here (and I think Apple could have clarified this better last year) is that the watch represents a new frontier in the intersection of technology and fashion. Put it another way, Apple's ethos is for computers as an appliance - so why wouldn't an Apple Watch cost a similar amount to those available from other manufacturers (Omega, Rolex, Panerai, hell even Seiko have $1,000+ watches). You only need to read the descriptions on the website for the different bands to get an idea of the positioning of the Apple Watch brand (extracted below). Part of the reason I think these estimates of $30-100 for different replacement bands are totally off - these aren't going to be products you cut out of blister packaging like a $15 HDMI cable.

I can't recall the last time Apple sold a product put in a blister pack. Price isn't the only way to distinguish something as a premium product.

No, they don't. $1,500 for a stainless steel link bracelet watch really isn't expensive for people who actually buy luxury goods. If you're someone who doesn't wear a watch or someone who wears a Timex watch, is it expensive? Sure. But you're probably not the target market.

If that person wearing a Timex watch owns an iPhone, yeah, they ARE the target market.

The size of the global luxury goods market is estimated to hit $375B in 2020 combined with Apple attracting the CEO of Burberry into just a retail VP position, I think its clear that the Apple Watch may represent a new direction for Apple - I think they are going to try leveraging their brand to move aggressively into luxury goods.

By comparison to Apple, Burberry makes a pittance. They got Ahrendts by virtue of her compensation package. She replaced Brownett because Brownett likely wasn't cut out for managing a premium retail chain of Apple's magnitude, coming from a glorified Best Buy operation like Dixons. They didn't need someone with technology retail expertise, they needed someone with BRAND expertise, and even without the watch, the Apple brand has reached a milestone of being a tech brand with the same sort of universal global clout as fashion houses. Ahrendts brings global retail experience from a brand with high demands for presentation and volume.

You've read too much into that by a long shot.

Extra thought: I think the lower end of the Apple Watch models being the Sport edition is telling. I think the Apple Watch Sport is positioned almost as an accessory to an Apple Watch or Apple Watch Edition. Personally, $350 for a watch giving me the same function as my main Apple Watch or Edition but designed so I can use it as a 'beater' is a pretty good deal.

The only thing that's telling about it is the cheaper materials being used to make it. Again, you've read too much into it.

I never thought I'd see the day when people willingly drank Gruber's Kool-Aid.

 

[Silentium]

Like a car, apple's watch will be worth less the moment you buy it and will never be worth more than it cost you. A nice luxury watch will see a small decline but can eventually appreciate. I have no problem dropping money on luxury jewelry. I invest in art. There is no way in hell I will ever pay $5,000-16,000 for something that is of minimal use and burns cash unless it is just remarkably fun. Luxury vehicles also pretty much do nothing but burn money, but they make a statement, are fun to drive and there isn't a similarly situated alternative. So you're right, I'm wrong.. Apple Watch is WORSE than luxury vehicles if Gruber is right on pricing.

Nobody buys a watch to appreciate. Very, very few watches will ever be worth more in real terms than what you pay for them (so I don't believe people will be purchasing Apple Watch with that in mind). Further, why are we anticipating that the Apple Watch will hold its value differently than other Apple products? MacBooks, iMacs, iPhones all hold their value extremely well - why would the Apple Watch be any different. I just don't anticipate 70/80%+ depreciation in a year - which seems to be what people are forecasting here.

I also don't think the depreciating argument is valid because I don't think the product value assumptions you're making hold at a global market level.

I don't know if the Apple Watch will hit $20,000, but I sure do think it'll be more expensive than people here are forecasting.

EDIT: I don't have time to respond right now, but will in a few hours.

EDIT2: Didn't get a chance today to respond. But to summarise my final, pre-conference thoughts: I think pricing of the Sport and Watch versions will be pretty close to what Gruber and some others have identified. I'm less convinced of the Edition pricing stretching to $20K. I think Edition pricing will fall somewhere in the $5K-10K range (which I realise is broad, but I do think this is a hard item to forecast). As always, I've enjoyed the Apple-related speculation and I look forward to seeing you all on the other side of the conference!

 

[Byakuya769]

The only thing that's telling about it is the cheaper materials being used to make it. Again, you've read too much into it.

I never thought I'd see the day when people willingly drank Gruber's Kool-Aid.

Sorry, bro. You're sounding poor.. you must not be the target audience. We just need to be happy with our quarter machine watches that we obviously can only afford and just shut up about Apple's magic.

 

[DOWN]

I can't recall the last time Apple sold a product put in a blister pack. Price isn't the only way to distinguish something as a premium product.

Apple has probably done equal amounts for industry wide tech ads and packaging, as they've done for destroying Dell's and their peers beige box PC designs and the like.

 

[numble]

Like a car, apple's watch will be worth less the moment you buy it and will never be worth more than it cost you. A nice luxury watch will see a small decline but can eventually appreciate. I have no problem dropping money on luxury jewelry. I invest in art. There is no way in hell I will ever pay $5,000-16,000 for something that is of minimal use and burns cash unless it is just remarkably fun. Luxury vehicles also pretty much do nothing but burn money, but they make a statement, are fun to drive and there isn't a similarly situated alternative. So you're right, I'm wrong.. Apple Watch is WORSE than luxury vehicles if Gruber is right on pricing.

I am positive that there will be a big grey market scalper market. I don't agree that it will never be worth more than it cost. People are still bringing in iPhones to resell in China, and that was released 7 months ago.

 

[Byakuya769]

I am positive that there will be a big grey market scalper market. I don't agree that it will never be worth more than it cost. People are still bringing in iPhones to resell in China, and that was released 7 months ago.

How long does that last? Scalpers on release get a premium until an eventual global release?

I'm still not handing this to my grandkids. That's the difference.

 

[Terrell]

I am positive that there will be a big grey market scalper market. I don't agree that it will never be worth more than it cost. People are still bringing in iPhones to resell in China, and that was released 7 months ago.

Price inflation is not the same thing as appreciation of value. One is a temporary spike, the other is a steady incremental incline.

 

[numble]

How long does that last? Scalpers on release get a premium until an eventual global release?

I'm still not handing this to my grandkids. That's the difference.

Price inflation is not the same thing as appreciation of value. One is a temporary spike, the other is a steady incremental incline.

I am only replying to this:

apple's watch will be worth less the moment you buy it and will never be worth more than it cost you.

Price inflation is not considered temporary, by the way. Consumer price inflation is a decrease in the value of money.

 

[Byakuya769]

Kind of a useless distinction then, no?

 

[numble]

Kind of a useless distinction then, no?

No, I don't think so. I had to wait 5 months before I could buy the latest iPhone in Hong Kong, due to people buying them to make money. I still get requests from people offering to pay me extra if I buy and bring an iPhone the next time I enter China. So, for some people it is something that is worth more than the purchase price.

 

[dallow_bg]

My question would be why you think you deserve to buy the stainless steel edition for so little?

I think part of the probably here (and I think Apple could have clarified this better last year) is that the watch represents a new frontier in the intersection of technology and fashion. Put it another way, Apple's ethos is for computers as an appliance - so why wouldn't an Apple Watch cost a similar amount to those available from other manufacturers (Omega, Rolex, Panerai, hell even Seiko have $1,000+ watches). You only need to read the descriptions on the website for the different bands to get an idea of the positioning of the Apple Watch brand (extracted below). Part of the reason I think these estimates of $30-100 for different replacement bands are totally off - these aren't going to be products you cut out of blister packaging like a $15 HDMI cable.


No, they don't. $1,500 for a stainless steel link bracelet watch really isn't expensive for people who actually buy luxury goods. If you're someone who doesn't wear a watch or someone who wears a Timex watch, is it expensive? Sure. But you're probably not the target market.

The size of the global luxury goods market is estimated to hit $375B in 2020 combined with Apple attracting the CEO of Burberry into just a retail VP position, I think its clear that the Apple Watch may represent a new direction for Apple - I think they are going to try leveraging their brand to move aggressively into luxury goods.

Extra thought: I think the lower end of the Apple Watch models being the Sport edition is telling. I think the Apple Watch Sport is positioned almost as an accessory to an Apple Watch or Apple Watch Edition. Personally, $350 for a watch giving me the same function as my main Apple Watch or Edition but designed so I can use it as a 'beater' is a pretty good deal.

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Oh c'mon, similar quotes have been made in the past in regards to their material choices. Watches from micro brands use similar language when describing their bands. I can quote and link if you like.
At $2K max, the Steel version and band doesn't even come close to the prices of the watches from the makers you mentioned (except Seiko mid-tier).

I don't know about the Edition. Maybe people are right and it's more for Asia.