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April 2013 NPD Sales Results [Up3: Xbox 360 Top Platform, NSMBU LTD, Lego 3DS, Luigi]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
I'm not concerned at all. Completely different markets, handheld and consoles.
Wii U has no games. It's expensive. How are you going to have casuals play multiplayer games with that $100+ brick? It's graphical capabilities have not matched Uncharted 2 which came out years ago on a system launched in 2006.
PS4/Xbox3 will have large 3rd party support, much better graphics. This is a pretty safe assumption compared to the converse, that 3rd party developers all stop making games or go PC only (that would be nice). The increase in RAM size will allow for all sorts of new gameplay capabilities.
Microsoft's major releases this year are Twitch TV, Pizza Hut and a McDonalds commercial.
130 vs 100 is not a huge win, but the context is that the PS3 software library looks pretty healthy while the 360 is a barren wasteland. MS is just completely mailing it in at this point, Sony is going balls out on PS3 still (GT6 on PS3!) and MS is still winning.
I'd buy one at that price point.
god if PS4 bombs
fuck this whole industry at that point
It could bomb. Depends the price, marketing, etc.. It'll launch and sell well, but who knows if that momentum will carry into 2014. MS is launching right along with the PS4. Things will be interesting when the two release near simultaneously with very similar content. And we can expect MS to work some kind of exclusive CoD content or DLC.
shinra-bansho
Member
The Wii U's poor sales do not indicate a problem with the market, they indicate a product with no market.
The Vita too, but to a lesser extent, as one could consider the decline of a dedicated handheld space a problem. It is ultimately though still a product with no market.
Its going to be more of the same with better graphics and more social options and a a few new IPs that will make people buy more games then they are buying currently.
To me it just looks like a part of the market is getting burnt out and I don't know what that will mean when the other consoles release.
god if PS4 bombs
fuck this whole industry at that point
Say that when there is software worth being upset about the PlayStation 4 failing.
StreetsAhead
Member
god if PS4 bombs
fuck this whole industry at that point
Killzone, Knack, & Drive Club @ launch with mostly cross-gen ports from 3rd parties and launching against a PS3-exclusive Gran Turismo sounds like a wonderful plan.
Duxxy3
Member
That was Pre-$80 3DS price drop, $199 tablets, $100 memory cards and 3DS exclusive monster hunter.
god if PS4 bombs
fuck this whole industry at that point
i kinda think that microsoft will have comparative success in america at first, and the ps4 might pull in some numbers under 100k in its first few months. this will lead to massive overreactions and many a thread about how the ps4 and, indeed, the industry as a whole is dying.
cut to years later and games are still being made for those consoles, which have sold in the tens of millions.
MikeE21286
Member
Pretty much
Just like the PSP, but given that at the time it was launching at the same price point as the 3DS I would have had high hopes for the Vita too. That is until Nintendo cut down the price point shortly after its launch.
Also makes it a lot more clearer why they are diversifying the box to not only be for games to make it more appealing to customers
Jinfash
needs 2 extra inches
I'd estimate you're high.
shinra-bansho
Member
Gran Turismo isn't really going to move the PS3 needle in the US anyway. It's a very Euro-centric title. It could impact EU launch plans.
But then 600K people bought the PS3 at European launch at a ridiculously high price.
StreetsAhead
Member
Which was about this time in 2011. It wasn't until post-E3 2011 that things started shifting.
There was a vocal minority and alot of hype when the price was announced so I don't blame him for confusing things.
god if PS4 bombs
fuck this whole industry at that point
I wouldn't worry unless Sony somehow managed to pull another PS3 launch or worse. Unlike Wii U, PS4 will have powerful enough hardware to get tech nerds jumping on board, and from there word of mouth will hopefully be positive enough to give it a semi-healthy launch.
Nintendo on the other hand was screwed from the beginning (and everyone saw it was going to happen) given that they launched hardware that nobody cared about, and their launch plans even made the hardcore Nintendo fans think again about whether or not a Wii U would be worthwhile.
A Black Falcon
Member
Atari was huge in the '70s and big in the '80s, though. Their story was different from Sega, however; Atari had more of a long, slow decline, not the sudden collapse of North American Sega... though the Atari 5200 was a pretty big failure, going from market-leader with the 2600 to 1 million sold with the 5200. Atari did recover somewhat with the 7800 (3.8 million sold in North America, similar or better numbers in Europe), but after that... yeah, as I said in my last post, the Lynx didn't sell too well, and then the Jaguar failed pretty badly.
Still, for examples from the '90s or newer, the Saturn might be the best example, yeah. Sega went from market-leader in North America and Europe to near-irrelevant in both pretty quickly. Selling 1/10th (or less) of what your last system sold in that region... that's pretty terrible, but Sega managed it. I think Nintendo can avoid THAT (hopefully!), but Wii numbers... those do look extremely unlikely.
Yeah... that's not good for Nintendo.
I do think they made some mistakes with the Wii U, and we'll see if they can fix them, but as a Nintendo fan, this is not good to see.
Forget monthly sales, for Sega's consoles even the worldwide lifetime totals aren't definitely clear.
UberTag
Member
Those gamers won't be coming back for prettier versions of games they can already play on systems they own. Sure, the Call of Duties will continue to flourish but in an industry where EVERY MAJOR PUBLISHER OUTSIDE OF TAKE-TWO is creatively stagnant you're dealing with a serious case of diminishing returns.
Having two consoles with almost identical tech and only their first-party lineups to diversify them launch in tandem with one another would be bad enough... but when you factor in that there isn't a third-party on the planet that will fully commit any of their tentpole franchises (new IPs or otherwise) to that new ecosystem... well, it's not going to be pretty.
Randolph Freelander
Member
Well, after PSP crushed DS, sure. It was only natural.
metalslimer
Member
No this time in 2011 none of that had happened. 3DS was doing terribly in the US, although if 3DS really did sell 100k this month it's not that far away from its previous low (awful). Anyway Vita was riding pretty high in 2011 despite market indications that it was not going to do that well.
Why is the US so Xbox Centric? I still don't understand this.
I think the States counts for the 10 million difference between the PS3 and 360, while in Canada and most of the EU PS3 outsells the 360.
I wonder if its because it launched first or what but I don't typically see many 360 gamers around the parts where I live.
theviolenthero
Member
Lowest priced 360 is $200
Lowest priced PS3 is $270
That's one of the main reasons for the sales being lower.
Consumers don't factor in paying for Xbox Live? Because that was one of the main reasons I chose a PS3 in 2011 over the 360.
Petrae
Member
Microsoft isn't terribly concerned because (here in the US), it has all of the momentum. With the exception of Sony's exclusives, Microsoft has all of the major players this year: Saints Row, Madden 25, GTA, AssCreed, CoD, and FIFA. Gran Turismo isn't a lock for big success in this territory and Beyond isn't going to have mass appeal. Best weapon that Sony has is The Last of Us, which combined with a price drop at E3 could drive sales short-term versus the 360.
Microsoft doesn't have to worry about first-party offerings right now; its third-party partners are picking up the slack nicely and will continue to keep the 360 at or near the top of the US hardware sales charts for the rest of 2013.
yeah, i'm looking at 2015. a 3 year turnaround time might not be the most fun thing for nintendo's engineers, but they have to at least be looking at it as a contingency plan. hell, they were making a new game boy while the ds bombed in its first few months before cutting that altogether. the one thing that might be hard is killing the 3ds in favor of putting everything on one device. when we get to 2015, the machine could have an install base of about 50-60m worldwide.
i think nintendo's biggest problem in going after a different market is that they failed to capture anyone's imagination. if they had grabbed the occulus rift or something like it, that would have had a massive buzz around it. hell, the motion controls would make a lot more sense, theoretically speaking.
the ps4 and durango seem like they're stepping far and away from how consoles used to be played. valve might be the ones ahead of the curve, where services become more important than consoles. get a box from directv, and play all your steam games- something like that. of course, that might be about 10 years or so away at this point.
MikeE21286
Member
Unlikely. Most consumers are actually idiots.
I don't have actual numbers from an accredited source sorry. It was something a friend told me.
Maybe NPD could shine some light on things later on if someone has collected and accumulated the totals.
UberTag
Member
If Microsoft offers a subsidized price plan for the Durango at $299 and Sony doesn't match it, those idiot consumers will flock to Microsoft once again.
metalslimer
Member
You know I wouldn't count on MS dominating Sony in the US this time around. A signficant portion of the huge US lead happened when Sony completely bungled the first 2 years of PS3. Unless MS has something huge for the launch in November, I think they will come out with MS slightly ahead.
MikeE21286
Member
No doubt in my mind about that.
No doubt about it.
shinra-bansho
Member
I've posited a theory before that the combination of a later launch and a high launch price allowed the 360 to build an initial base. From thereon after it essentially became impossible to overcome the bandwagon effect. People buy what their friends have to play with their friends. Even when price-parity was reached it was too late.
To add to this, Microsoft also created a strong association with one of the biggest franchises of the generation that also relied heavily on online multiplayer and consequently friend lists.
It will be interesting to see whether this effect of networked services carries over to next gen.
Also, the difference is much smaller than 10M, unless you are simply referring to the US where the difference is greater than 10M.
If Microsoft manages to essentially make XBL compatible across platforms then I think there isn't anything stopping them from taking the US again. I.e. someone buying a Durango, will be secure in knowing he has all his 360 friends to play COD: Ghosts with even if they don't get a Durango yet.
Baconsammy
Banned
Came out first. Was cheaper. Had an infinitely better online system. XBLA owned PSN for years. Acheivements were popular. Best version of most multi-console games. Much better selling exclusives. Controller is better, especially for shooters.
Yet the 360 continues to outsell the PS3 this late in the generation in the States.
I guess being priced abit lower and launching first changes everything.
darkside31337
Tomodachi wa Mahou
You are drastically overrating the intelligence/work consumers put into this.
Sticker price is all that matters. Sony honestly fucked up this generation by not having a mandatory paid online service. That "good will" wasn't worth the money lost.
StreetsAhead
Member
And Kinect took off and Move didn't?
Baconsammy
Banned
metalslimer
Member
The difference is not as large though. And PS3 is still more expensive. A competitive priced PS4 vs Durango launching at the same time should be about equal.
microsoft will have to heavily advertise the $299 pricepoint. sony's been pretty good at countering microsoft, so they might do a thing where you get playstation superplus if you get the subsidized plan.
Magicpaint
Member
The 360 also got a second wind with Kinect.
System sellers - what do you make of them? Nintendo released 2 (two) games for its new platform. Clearly not enough, and it shows. That's an execution problem, which is about ti be fixed, like they are fixing miiverse or the OS. As long as they fix price and their marketing team, Wii U will have a market. Sytstem sellers will make sure of that.
I would say Kinect is a large contributor to that along with price. Along with marketing it as a family console.
Sammy Samusu
Member
Death at Wii U, Vita and Inafune Sacrifice.
Petrae
Member
360 outsold Sony by 1.5 million units in Nov/Dec of 2011 alone and has consistently been ahead of PS3 for years now. It's been a relatively consistent pattern of 360>PS3, and not just in the beginning.