Spoiled Milk
Banned
um I just painted Haly as some horrible scum sabotaging my plan but his last post is really reasonable and I take back what I said
Doesnt a lack of kills on N1 kind of disprove the must kill every night?
El Topo is Spanish for "The Mole".Emphasis mine. Beg pardon?
As a policy, we can't let anyone claim bulletproof and get away with it.He must've known it would put the spotlight on him though. And he volunteered for the mission on top of it. I mean yes, potentially dangerous, but who would employ such a gambit on Day 2, with no prior pressure, and then stay by it? The early days are not opportune times for gambits, Blargonaut's antics notwithstanding.
I really, truly consider this a bit of a side venture while we lynch a quiet player today.It would be a long shot. Like, really really long. Not that it'll hurt (except it'll put whoever we take off the volunteer list at risk), but I'm not feeling as confident as you are.
I generally regard the most inactive players as people who are busy and simply don't contribute at all. In my opinion, the ones to watch out for are those that are usually quiet but semi-frequently offer a little minor analysis here and there. Those that are faking engagement. But I'm okay with a Possum vote.I'd rather go for the suspicious folks first otherwise we're just letting them slip past the net, but I'm not opposed to making the inactives talk more. At least Mikehawk replied today but Possum has been more inactive than the player he replaced.
I didn't think about another Archer revealing himself later on. It might be much, much later if Archer's true role was significant for town, but even so, I am willing to drop the Topo plan because of this.Sure, I think ER is most likely at minimum Archer and town. With 2 Kriegers and a Ray revealed so far it's pretty unthinkable to me that there isn't an Archer. If ER is lying about that point it will absolutely come out in the course of the game when another Archer shows up. In light of that, testing his bulletproofness via a neutral party seems like a poor play to me.
Thanks! I want you to know that I am so Team YesNo, it hurts. :')
This is odd because if there is truly a link between them, they should have the same affiliation. That roytheone considered one of then town and one mafia implies that he likely investigated one of them. It is possible, though, that whomever he investigated has a role that tricks investigators.He was mostly suss on Seath and El Topo at the end of Day 2, but his final vote was on Darryl. Seems like he was thinking along that there is a linkage between squidy and darryl/GLT.... so yep. Hope that brings more info to the table?
Characters that are likely to appear and will probably be town aligned:
Sterling Archer(Claimed by ER)
Lana Kane
Ray Gillette(Burbeting)
Pam
Cheryl/Carol/Charlene
Krieger(Visual)
Up to 3 Krieger clones(Roy)
Cyril Figgis
Characters that are likely to appear and will probably be mafia:
Barry
Katya(The likliest Honeypot IMO)
Boris
Nikolai
Rona(Could also be honeypot)
Less likely and more malleable alignments:
Brett
Bilbo
Woodhouse
Krieger's Waifu
Rip Riley
Ron
Burt Reynolds
tons of other 1 shot characters.
You are suspect if you want me to believe that that is the only reasonable action in a game with 20 players, many of whom are quiet, have spotty activity, strange behavior, almost entirely impossible to verify roleclaims, etc. Why is the most suspicious person NOT the one who claims bulletproof?
You want to talk about reason? Let's get Karl Popper up in this shit and attempt to falsify.
EzekelRAGE and El Topo are unknown quantities. We can test aspects of BOTH of their role claims TONIGHT, killing two birds with one mission, without wasting a lynch. Get El Topo on the mission. Have him shoot Ezekel. Nobody wants a loose cannon with a hand cannon anyway so we will not have wasted his weapon. I already explained what the outcomes mean. Even if EZ-E is bulletproof KGB Khrushchev scumbag, we can continue relegating him to milk runs until we have lynched all stay-at-home-KGB and then the only people dying happen to be on missions. I STILL think it was utterly misconceived of him to reveal. I can't even remember why he did, and I care very little to go back and see. The point is that we need to do a goddamned something about all these roleclaims, and I am the only one who has proposed a real lynchless way to do that.
So tell me again, Darryl. Why is lynching El Topo the only reasonable thing to do?
Is it because you feel threatened?
Hunting scum? Some idiot put our backs against the wall? He is neutral. It is very clear he is neutral. We might even have some mutual interests. And if he's not lying about his gadgets, then we have the opportunity to get real information on people WHEN WE HAVE ALREADY LOST THREE POWER ROLES IN TWO CYCLES.
But you can't possibly be that clueless, Darryl. The great ploy of nation-takers is to manufacture a crisis and frenzy the citizenry. But the wolves have already crept in with the sheep, and we are fencing them in with us, not out. Are our backs against the wall? Or are you building one behind us?
I'm just getting started.
Topo has "mascara", which implies seduction, which implies roleblock. I concede that it could be one of those fancy mascara gadgets and does something else. I will not force Topo to reveal what it does. He should continue to use the discretion he has been using (except for killing people).
Thanks! I want you to know that I am so Team YesNo, it hurts. :')
I'm not even close to done with you.
Only the most gullible among us would think that a one shot gun power on a neutral role would be "too much of an advantage". Not to mention, he is not town, so he can use that against town players... such as the fact that he was going to kill roy.
What exactly do you seek to achieve with all this pressure on him? Do you just like being a part of the giant FUD machine? Does that really help town?
Volunteer for the mission. Shoot EzekelRAGE. Then, for the next couple of nights, use your gadgets at your discrepancy. Or talk about it with us. We'll cross that bridge tomorrow. And the results of this wonderful little experiment will determine precisely what we're going to do about you... or Mr. Bulletproof.
cabbage already expressed that he wants to unvolunteer if someone else needs the spot.
Well, someone needs the spot.
Septimus Prime thinks he might be targetted or lynched today. Good. He's suspicious and I don't care much for him at all. Unvolunteer, or we'll force you with a lynch. squiddyj is also suspicious for reasons I don't care much for getting into right now. He is not at the top of my lynch list. So squiddyj, unvolunteer.
Palmer. You are also on the volunteer list. If either squiddy or Septimus Prime do not volunteer, would you be reasonable enoough to get off the volunteer list? You have been
very pro-town this game and that is why I am requesting this of you. I will understand if
you have reasons for staying on the mission.
Okay, fine.
NO VOLUNTEER
UNVOLUNTEER
So why not vote for Darryl? We already saw that he was saved--twice--and both times it was a bad move.
So let's repeat the same mistake a third night in a row? That reads distinctly anti-town to me, no matter how you veil it with posts.
Here's the thing I was thinking that was weird with Zeke's honeypot. Katya is both the most likely honeypot and completely incoherent with the supposed power. It's weird.
I don't see how brett bunsen is anything other than an ISIS employee. He might not be prominently featured so it's likely he's not even in the game.
I don't think Woodhouse would have a malleable alignment either.
Here's the thing I was thinking that was weird with Zeke's honeypot. Katya is both the most likely honeypot and completely incoherent with the supposed power. It's weird.
Roy's role reveal also casts doubt onto Ezekel's role, which many of us readily believed (or at least readily figured into our possibilities) on D2. Including me.
I've explained plenty about my reasons for role claiming, I figured the KGB knew they needed the Honeypot to kill me.H
I'm much more concerned about Ezekel's bulletproof claim than I am about El Topo's one-shot. The reason is that claiming bulletproof offers nothing for town, but it gives the claimant some ethos and it also gives him an excuse for not being night-killed.
H
However, if Ezekel were to die, that would satisfy my number one concern of "is he really bulletproof?". If Topo does not actually use his weapon, then he is not town aligned and we will catch him doing something anti-town later on and lynch him at that point. It is a very minor loss in the form of misinformation if he lies (we are back to where we are right now, anyway) and it is a very great boon if we kill a liar.
They could both be Neutral with weird win conditions that don't specifically put them against Town.
H
I'm much more concerned about Ezekel's bulletproof claim than I am about El Topo's one-shot.
Unless you would want to kill me, why would you be so concerned about my bulletproofness?H
However, if Ezekel were to die, that would satisfy my number one concern of "is he really bulletproof?".
How is that a bandwagon? I've been gunning for you/GLT since Day 1.I quoted that second post because it's a garbage bandwagon post. Why not kill me? Drive an argument for me. One you make yourself.
Okay so I'm Brett Bunsen. What's my win condition? get killed in the night? that's way too easy.
How is that a bandwagon? I've been gunning for you/GLT since Day 1.
VOTE: Darryl
That wasn't me. My argument for you always hinged on your (and GLT's) last-minute save and how we ended up booting out an Agency player each time instead.One of your arguments was that was the Honeypot and was going to kill Archer. Obviously false. Your other argument is that I've survived day evictions. You are hopping back onto me now that someone else is pushing for me. It wasn't a minute ago when you were spreading some "we can only vote squidy or YNYNY", no?
It was possible they didn't.I've explained plenty about my reasons for role claiming, I figured the KGB knew they needed the Honeypot to kill me.
You are correct. When someone claims they have Night Kill immunity, I demand to know if they are telling the truth. As OuiNonNonNonOui pointed out, masquerading as a bulletproof character provides an exceptional alibi for *not* being night killed on missions. It also gives you an excuse to be on every mission so that when someone finally dies on one, you can just say you are Archer and had no part in it. I believe in science. If you claim something, we must make an attempt to falsify it, even if our hands are tied.Yea, I'm against this whole theory. It doesn't seem very pro town. If it proves Topo has a gun, it doesn't mean anything since he just wasted it if it is one use. It also doesnt prove his alignment. With the way you are pushing this bulletproof theory, you are reading as a KGB who wants to test if I really have NK immunity more than anything.
One of your arguments was that was the Honeypot and was going to kill Archer. Obviously false. Your other argument is that I've survived day evictions. You are hopping back onto me now that someone else is pushing for me. It wasn't a minute ago when you were spreading some "we can only vote squidy or YNYNY", no?
Oh wait. Yes, it was. I see what you were talking about now.That wasn't me. My argument for you always hinged on your (and GLT's) last-minute save and how we ended up booting out an Agency player each time instead.
When I voted for YNNNY, I voted for her based on her sketchy (in my view) voting history, where she kept saying people were suspects but ended up last-minute voting to Visualante2 and Zubz, respectively, who both ended up getting conveniently voted out.
I've always been suspicious of you and squidyj, but now that we know roytheone had an investigator role and targeted you instead of squidy, I'm less confident that he's KGB now.
Why would I risk them attempting to send HP after the first attempt?It was possible they didn't.
I didn't really need an excuse for being on every mission other than "I want to be safe.", and I don't really have to give that as long as I am within the first 4 to volunteer. What have been the other reasons ppl have given to for volunteering? Also there have been 2 missions and one I have not been apart of, and there have been no kills. So what was the reason no one died on the first mission? You make it seem like it was guaranteed someone would die on a mission. Also that last sentence you could use that to day lynch anyone who roleclaims.You are correct. When someone claims they have Night Kill immunity, I demand to know if they are telling the truth. As OuiNonNonNonOui pointed out, masquerading as a bulletproof character provides an exceptional alibi for *not* being night killed on missions. It also gives you an excuse to be on every mission so that when someone finally dies on one, you can just say you are Archer and had no part in it. I believe in science. If you claim something, we must make an attempt to falsify it, even if our hands are tied.
It does waste it. Let's say this Archer claim is an elaborate claim by the KGB but I am NK immune anyway. Now when ET uses the gun and fails to kill me, that still doesn't prove I am Archer, only that I am bulletproof. The only way to prove I am Archer is with role pm via my death.Read my earlier posts. Verifying your claim does not waste El Topo's gun, it puts it to good use. Nobody wants him to shoot a random person at night (although that would be cool, to be honest). Not to mention, isolating him on a mission would mitigate the risk of shenanigans. And if we verify he has one gun, then I will be liable to believe his other gadget claims.
Also, there has been ZERO evidence that I am not Archer.
This is odd because if there is truly a link between them, they should have the same affiliation. That roytheone considered one of then town and one mafia implies that he likely investigated one of them. It is possible, though, that whomever he investigated has a role that tricks investigators.
At this point, it's more compelling than me surviving a NK by 3rd party kill attempt proving I am imo. Also I'm not talking a counter roleclaim, I mean you guys can't find one piece of my posts that contradict in regards to me being Archer. His whole argument isnt even about me being Archer, but me being bulletproof or not.This is not a compelling argument I just want to point that out.
I think he's taking issue with the nature of your claim. Claiming bulletproof is more likely a scum move (because usually scums don't often have NK protection). If it's verified, then it also verifies you as much more town.
That is, it feels less the lie (and therefore your town-ness is less the lie) if your Bulletproof is "verified".
You are the only person that has any idea if Honeypot is real or not. For all I know, you went to Netflix, saw the fifth episode of the first season of Archer, and decided to give your role some credibility. The perfect storm to keep you on the missions forever.Why would I risk them attempting to send HP after the first attempt?
That was a typo. I meant that it would be excellent cover for why you never die at night, period. Surely you can see why I would think this to be possible. (Not that I believe you are scum). I really do think you're Archer, EZ. I trust you. But I must verify.I didn't really need an excuse for being on every mission other than "I want to be safe.", and I don't really have to give that as long as I am within the first 4 to volunteer. What have been the other reasons ppl have given to for volunteering? Also there have been 2 missions and one I have not been apart of, and there have been no kills. So what was the reason no one died on the first mission? You make it seem like it was guaranteed someone would die on a mission. Also that last sentence you could use that to day lynch anyone who roleclaims.
I have addressed this. If you are bulletproof KGB, you will try to be anti-town in the future and we will catch you for that. It's not a waste because no one wants El Topo to shoot some random fucker at night. People are ready to lynch him, for Christ's sake! Just look at Darryl seething over there in there corner.It does waste it. Let's say this Archer claim is an elaborate claim by the KGB but I am NK immune anyway. Now when ET uses the gun and fails to kill me, that still doesn't prove I am Archer, only that I am bulletproof. The only way to prove I am Archer is with role pm via my death.
I do not agree. I am more willing to believe you are ISIS if your bulletproof ability was verified. Why would you lie about something like that? If you're not KGB or bulletproof, you have made a disastrous gamble and it will be unfortunate when El Topo kills you.Do you agree that this reads as scummy(you being so obsessed with my NK immunity)? You are not even worried about my alignment, ONLY how difficult it is for me to be killed. Even with ET you arent worried about his alignment, only if he can kill me. Even if all goes to your plan, ET shoots me, I survive, the alignment of both would still be in question.
lolAlso, there has been ZERO evidence that I am not Archer.
Good catch! I was suspicious of squid but I am not anymore. As for voting... you should bandwagon for a possum vote.[...]
It is about you being trustworthy. And in the end, that is what counts.At this point, it's more compelling than me surviving a NK by 3rd party kill attempt proving I am imo. Also I'm not talking a counter roleclaim, I mean you guys can't find one piece of my posts that contradict in regards to me being Archer. His whole argument isnt even about me being Archer, but me being bulletproof or not.
Exactly this. It does not hurt anyone to try, except for either of you two.As I said earlier, it's a long shot that Kristoffer's plan reveals anything helpful but at the very least it's taking into consideration the peculiarities of the mission and the claims. And I do agree with him that claiming bulletproof is a lot like claiming doctor or cop. It is basically one of the most scummiest claims possible (not that I read you as scum, just from a theory standpoint) because it works out so conveniently for the claimer. Unless you feel El Topo is Honeypot or poses some real risk to the mission goers, I don't see much of a downside to letting him on, provided we decide to lynch someone else.
Which is not to say I'm opposed to lynching El Topo either because, again, I think he is a Serial Killer covering his ass and this is another option as well.
You'll have to explain this one to me Palmer. Not related to this game but I'm very curious that this has been your experience (this is only my second game so I'm ignorant how mafia is generally played in practice). My thought process is:Scum are more likely to actually be NK immune, because lynching them is always an option as well.
Yes... except if I was Archer I wouldn't want to reveal myself in case, let's say, EZ was the Honeypot. Or something equally contrived. There could be tons of weird alt-win conditions built into this game. We already seem to have like... 3? Conway needs to lynch Archer. Honeypot needs to kill Archer (well this might be a KGB thing instead of an alt-win) and Topo needs to kill a cyborg.I think the stronger evidence is the lack of Counter Claim though.
The real Archer, if his role was fantastic, would want to lay low and not blow his cover on the third day. And in fact, if someone were scum and knew what the real Archer's role was, they could take advantage of this and pretend to be archer for... days.A compelling piece of evidence is that he claimed Archer specifically, which hasn't been refuted by anyone. I normally don't advocate role claims but in this case, a counter claim would probably work very well for us.
You'll have to explain this one to me Palmer. Not related to this game but I'm very curious that this has been your experience (this is only my second game so I'm ignorant how mafia is generally played in practice). My thought process is:
Mafia universally kill at night.
An NK immune role would therefore usually be anti-scum... which would be town?
Yes... except if I was Archer I wouldn't want to reveal myself in case, let's say, EZ was the Honeypot. Or something equally contrived. There could be tons of weird alt-win conditions built into this game. We already seem to have like... 3? Conway needs to lynch Archer. Honeypot needs to kill Archer (well this might be a KGB thing instead of an alt-win) and Topo needs to kill a cyborg.
Use and Balance
In games with Serial Killers and/or Vigilantes, one member of the Mafia is generally Bulletproof so as to grant the team some measure of protection from being routed at Night. As Townies are not generally Bulletproof, this is only a small respite as the shooter can find a way to claim a guilty result of some kind on the Bulletproof Mafioso.
Serial Killers are commonly one-shot Bulletproof to prevent them from being killed too early by the Mafia. However, they are also commonly given full Bulletproof as well, so the Mafia must think twice before trying to kill the Serial Killer again.
Townies with unlimited Bulletproof are very rare because they can generally only be killed by the lynch. One common breaking combination is Bulletproof+Cop, where the Cop investigates the Bulletproof player. Once the Bulletproof player is determined to be Town, the Mafia cannot get rid of the Bulletproof player until the very end of the game unless they have a Strongman on their team. (It isn't unheard of to have Bulletproof Godfathers with investigation immunity, though...) In addition, if the unlimited Bulletproof role lands in the hands of a skilled Townie, it may be more than the scum can do to avoid getting picked apart with no recourse.
If a Bulletproof Townie is included in the game, some means of handling the endgame in the event that the Bulletproof player lives that long must be considered. Many moderators will simply ignore Bulletproof aspects if a Win Condition requiring a faction to make up half of the living players is attained - in particular, if only one Mafioso and one Bulletproof Townie are alive, the Mafioso will usually be given the win.
In terms of power, a One-Shot Bulletproof Townie is less swingy and slightly more powerful than a Doctor, as it makes it more likely that a particular Townie will be saved from death. Fully Bulletproof Townies range from quite powerful to game-crushing depending on who draws the role. A Bulletproof Mafioso (sometimes called a Mafia Tough Guy) is less swingy but less powerful than a Mafia Doctor, and is only a modest power boost. One-Shot Bulletproof is a fair power boost for Serial Killers; full Bulletproof is a considerable power boost.
The real Archer, if his role was fantastic, would want to lay low and not blow his cover on the third day. And in fact, if someone were scum and knew what the real Archer's role was, they could take advantage of this and pretend to be archer for... days.
I read it, but further down they talk about the nature of Bulletproof fakeclaims and their reasoning is convincing. It's more a scum move than a town move and this is what's motivating Kristoff, I believe.
(Granted, given the spontaneous nature of Ezekel's claim I'm more inclined to think he's town but I can see Kristoff's viewpoint as well.)
If you can admit that it is possible that this whole can be read as you being scummy as well, yes. I notice you seem to gloss over the claims that you don't care about my alignment or that this could possibly be a scum move on your end.Surely you can see why I would think this to be possible.
Again, something like that doesnt prove alignment. If I claimed cop, pointed to ISIS member. You lynch him and proves me right, I could still be evil. This happened last mafia game with scum investigator.And no, that last sentence means that I expect anyone who role claims to have a falsifiable claim. If a cop points at someone, we can lynch that person and falsify the claim. How do I falsify that you are bulletproof? I'm just supposed to trust you and put you on the missions because you made up some honeypot character?
Let him be lynched? Didn't he claim unaligned? So even though KGB win would be the same since they have to outnumber us we are still taking out an unaligned member who we don't know the win conditions of.I have addressed this. If you are bulletproof KGB, you will try to be anti-town in the future and we will catch you for that. It's not a waste because no one wants El Topo to shoot some random fucker at night. People are ready to lynch him, for Christ's sake! Just look at Darryl seething over there in there corner.
No, the only thing that counts is my alignment, which you don't care about.It is about you being trustworthy. And in the end, that is what counts.
Also a double kill night not occurring doesn't prove anything in regards to ET. Maybe the 2nd killer was one off or limited in other ways. Or maybe they will hold off on killing again to put more doubt on ET if he was on a mission..
I have stated why I do not think El Topo is a SK. However, Haly, I think we can test this theory if we keep him on the missions and a double night kill doesn't happen again.
Why do you want to save ET? He has admitted to at least not being town.I have addressed this. If you are bulletproof KGB, you will try to be anti-town in the future and we will catch you for that. It's not a waste because no one wants El Topo to shoot some random fucker at night. People are ready to lynch him, for Christ's sake! Just look at Darryl seething over there in there corner.
This is news to me.Depends on his role, yes. There's just more to it that I can't reveal without potentially outing a different power role that dropped some hints.
And why is that?I trust him for now due to lack of counter claim. He's certainly not playing in a way that's helpful to town, but that's a different issue.
El Topo remains the obvious lynch, IMO.
Why are you so afraid of getting shot in the face?whine whine whine
Because he is not KGB. And he can shoot you in the face.Why do you want to save ET? He has admitted to at least not being town.
Vote: El Topo
Why are you so afraid of getting shot in the face?