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As Microsoft and Sony target PC and mobile to grow their audiences, what does that mean for the future of the console? - GIBiz Opinion By Chris Dring

Mobilemofo

Member
Wellington-heads-in-sand-close-up1.jpg


The receipts are all there.
Isn't that the launch pic of the latest grafix card? Customers ready to take one in the ass price wise for the latest gfx. 😅
 

Dorago

Member
"Epic is making so much money from Fortnite. We will make our own GAAS shooter and take that money instead."

"Blizzard is making so much money from World of Warcraft. We will make our own MMORPG and take that money instead."

"Microsoft is making so much money from Halo. We will make our own story driven fps and take that money instead."

"Capcom is making so much money from Street Fighter 2. We will make our own fighting game and take that money instead."
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives

quest

Not Banned from OT
But..............isn't the issue ONLY Xbox? The Playstation console is doing better than ever. And Nintendo is doing fine too. And we all believe a Switch 2 would do great. So now it's all bad, just because MS can't figure themselves out?
Great but gaining marketshare in a decling market isn't that great. Sony isn't expanding the market enough for being the dominant force. This generation will fall well below the wii,ps3,xbox by near 80-100 million. If you want to include the nds to the ps3 generation and switch to this generation the market is still down 80 -100 million Its still a large shrinking of the market since the peak.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
Great but gaining marketshare in a decling market isn't that great. Sony isn't expanding the market enough for being the dominant force. This generation will fall well below the wii,ps3,xbox by near 80-100 million. If you want to include the nds to the ps3 generation and switch to this generation the market is still down 80 -100 million Its still a large shrinking of the market since the peak.
Everyone knows the non gaming casuals jumped to their TikToks and phones.
 

Topher

Identifies as young
Great but gaining marketshare in a decling market isn't that great. Sony isn't expanding the market enough for being the dominant force. This generation will fall well below the wii,ps3,xbox by near 80-100 million. If you want to include the nds to the ps3 generation and switch to this generation the market is still down 80 -100 million Its still a large shrinking of the market since the peak.

Why would you not include Switch in this generation?

Seventh gen: (360/PS3/Wii): 273 million
Ninth gen: (XS/PS5/Switch): 200 million (assuming X1 sold 20 million)

I mean....I get Wii U and Switch offset these consoles a bit, but Switch is still a part of this generation just as much as Wii was a part of its generation.
 
but I am telling the truth.

People want to equate "consoles are dying" to everyone, when is just a MS/Xbox's issue.

as i have speculated before, i don't think the console market can't sustain Xbox and PS and to me, this has been very obvious since the end of the 360 era.

I think this is a flawed reading of the history.

Think about it... which generation sold the most hardware? Wasn't it the PS3/X360/Wii/DS gen... i.e. the same gen that had an actual competitive MS, trying to duel it out in the market with Sony by producing games and services that both gamers and developers wanted?

That gen had Xbox creating sales records for their brand, Ninty busting the blue sky casual gamer market wide open with over 100m consoles sold and over 150m handhelds, and Sony delivering the goods after a debacle start to the gen.

That gen had the highest multi-console ownership of any gen to date. Hence, why I believe that had Sony been competitive from launch, their sales would have pushed out the generation hardware total even further; since a competitive Xbox meant people wanted to own both HD twins.

It was also the gen where Nintendo (waggle and the Balance Board), Sony (singstar), and MS (Kinect) expanded the market by successfully marketing games and peripheral products to the casual gamer as well as the core. In addition to the success of third parties with the same demographic with games like Guitar Hero and Dance Dance Revolution.

Fast forward to today and the same casual gamer who was lured in with titles like Wii Fit, has virtually nothing appealing to them. The industry has all but abandoned the casual player for the core gamer whales that buy up all the MTXs.

This is the real reason for the slowdown in industry growth.... i.e. everybody abandoned the filthy casuals, who would buy hardware, but not a lot of software, to instead target the core gamer whales who buy less hardware but spend big on software and horse armor. So of course the hardware totals each gen won't grow.

Combine this with the ballooning cost of semiconductor fabrication which had rendered node shrinks borderline uneconomical (kneecapping the console's ability to drop price), and you have a nice recipe for console hardware sales stagnation.
 

quest

Not Banned from OT
Why would you not include Switch in this generation?

Seventh gen: (360/PS3/Wii): 273 million
Ninth gen: (XS/PS5/Switch): 200 million (assuming X1 sold 20 million)

I mean....I get Wii U and Switch offset these consoles a bit, but Switch is still a part of this generation just as much as Wii was a part of its generation.
If your counting the switch then you need to count the nds and its 154 million sold. There is a stagnant market. Sony is doing well but just taking marketshare from others not growing the market is not a great position long term.
 

Topher

Identifies as young
If your counting the switch then you need to count the nds and its 154 million sold. There is a stagnant market. Sony is doing well but just taking marketshare from others not growing the market is not a great position long term.

Eh.....hard to get a good comparison really with the changes Nintendo has made over the last few years. Either way, this generation is showing growth over last generation. Granted, not the "peak" that the NDS provided, but growth from one gen to the next all the same.

Wii U/X1/PS4/3DS: 256 million
P5/Switch/XS: 202 million

That's a signficiant number consumers who want to buy consoles even if the total number never peaks again.
 
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I think this is a flawed reading of the history.

Think about it... which generation sold the most hardware? Wasn't it the PS3/X360/Wii/DS gen... i.e. the same gen that had an actual competitive MS, trying to duel it out in the market with Sony by producing games and services that both gamers and developers wanted?
PS3/360 ended up basically half and half; around 85M.

1. Xbox has said that they never made any money in hardware, therefore 360 didn't make any money for MS.

2. PS3 was very expensive for sony to produce and the entirety of that gen sony was bleeding money. there was even a meme of Sony announcing bankruptcy.


3. Wii was a shovelware machine. It was a mobile game store, just before mobile took over. WiiU's failure makes that point even stronger


That gen had Xbox creating sales records for their brand,
for their brand, yet was not enough for MS to make money.


Ninty busting the blue sky casual gamer market wide open with over 100m consoles sold
How many WiiU were sold?

and over 150m handhelds
just add Nintendo homeconse and handheld = switch
and Sony delivering the goods after a debacle start to the gen.
Only sony. cuz MS didn't invest in Firs party nor infrastructure to grow outside the United States

That gen had the highest multi-console ownership of any gen to date
And numbers reflected that. Is not like PS and Xbox sold 150M each.

. Hence, why I believe that had Sony been competitive from launch, their sales would have pushed out the generation hardware total even further; since a competitive Xbox meant people wanted to own both HD twins.
but that didn't happen. so we will never know.


It was also the gen where Nintendo (waggle and the Balance Board), Sony (singstar), and MS (Kinect) expanded the market by successfully marketing games and peripheral products to the casual gamer as well as the core. In addition to the success of third parties with the same demographic with games like Guitar Hero and Dance Dance Revolution.
MS and Nintendo chased that market with WiiU/One and backfired epically.

Fast forward to today and the same casual gamer who was lured in with titles like Wii Fit, has virtually nothing appealing to them. The industry has all but abandoned the casual player for the core gamer whales that buy up all the MTXs.
they went mobile.

This is the real reason for the slowdown in industry growth.... i.e. everybody abandoned the filthy casuals, who would buy hardware, but not a lot of software, to instead target the core gamer whales who buy less hardware but spend big on software and horse armor. So of course the hardware totals each gen won't grow.
because the "casuals" went mobile

Combine this with the ballooning cost of semiconductor fabrication which had rendered node shrinks borderline uneconomical (kneecapping the console's ability to drop price), and you have a nice recipe for console hardware sales stagnation.
that's another factor of why xbox series is struggling. it's chip is larger and costs more.
 

March Climber

Gold Member
"Epic is making so much money from Fortnite. We will make our own GAAS shooter and take that money instead."

"Blizzard is making so much money from World of Warcraft. We will make our own MMORPG and take that money instead."

"Microsoft is making so much money from Halo. We will make our own story driven fps and take that money instead."

"Capcom is making so much money from Street Fighter 2. We will make our own fighting game and take that money instead."
Whoever you're talking about, good on them for making their own products instead of attempting to buy up all of the above.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
Why would you not include Switch in this generation?

Seventh gen: (360/PS3/Wii): 273 million
Ninth gen: (XS/PS5/Switch): 200 million (assuming X1 sold 20 million)

I mean....I get Wii U and Switch offset these consoles a bit, but Switch is still a part of this generation just as much as Wii was a part of its generation.
Doesn't fit The Narrative.
 
Mobile is already extremely saturated and filled with big games that have nothing to do with Sony or Microsoft

What I'm saying is good luck retards, you're gonna need it
 

Slimboy Fat

Member
I can't be bothered to do the math but is the new and brave 70 euro game actually keeping pace with the overall inflation? We might see 80 euro games before too long. Certainly game development has gotten quite costly and time-consuming.
 

ReBurn

Gold Member
Their revenues have literally tripled in the last 8 years. its not dying lmao.

7zxSCyQ.jpg


Their profit margins are lower because they shipped two new hardware and bought Bungie. They will go back next year and especially the year after that as their first party studios start releasing games again.

They literally outsold MS 3:1 last year. 22 million vs 7.5 million. it will only increase as MS ports over more and more games to the PS5.

This is what they have slated from 2024 onwards:

1) Helldivers
2) Astrobot 2
3) Concord
4) marathon
5) death stranding 2
6) ghost of tsushima 2
7) Wolverine
8) Venom
7) ND's new IP
8) SSM's new IP
9) Horizon 3
10) Bend's New IP
11) Bluepoint's New IP
12) GT8
13) Media Molecule's new IP
14) HouseMarquee's new IP
15) Rise of Ronin which they are publishing though not sure if they own the rights to the IP like they do for Helldivers

Plus all the other GaaS trash they invested in like that Jade Raymond game and the games from those exbungie and ex treyarch studios. Thats 4-5 games a year. Their profits will bounce back up especially with MS shooting themselves in the foot.
If you're going to talk about the top line you also have to talk about the bottom line.

That 5.8% margin on that impressive revenue line is actually a significant issue and is a very clear indicator that Sony is also shooting themselves in the foot somewhere. Their Japanese executives aren't making the statements they are for no reason. Sony doesn't deposit units sold in the bank and they don't pay dividends in lists of first party games.

I know it's saying the quiet part out loud and people don't want to believe anything is wrong, but if their margin keeps shrinking in opposition to their growing revenue Sony leadership Is going to have to start making cuts somewhere and it's likely going to be somewhere in that list you made.
 

64bitmodels

Reverse groomer.
We heard this time and time again back in the early 2010s.

Consoles stagnating does not automatically mean death for the console industry. It'll just mean more PC ports, AA games and multiplats, less AAA blockbusters. A horrible fate for the gaming industry if you're an annoying asshole
 

Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
The next gen consoles will be the final high end consoles from both. Growth is flatlined.

That's ignoring emerging markets. India, China, South America, and even Africa means way more console owners in the future.

These largely untapped markets that don't really have much impact at the moment and had it not been for the pandemic, may have been prime for the PS4.
 

Kenpachii

Member
I can't be bothered to do the math but is the new and brave 70 euro game actually keeping pace with the overall inflation? We might see 80 euro games before too long. Certainly game development has gotten quite costly and time-consuming.

As games double in price each generation, a 8% increase or whatever it is in price won't keep up.

Also higher prices will result in less sales most likely as people will wait or skip entirely. Whoever though increasing prices for games was a good idea is a complete idiot.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
If your counting the switch then you need to count the nds and its 154 million sold. There is a stagnant market. Sony is doing well but just taking marketshare from others not growing the market is not a great position long term.

It's really weird when people want to make the Switch a handheld, but also act as if the Steamdeck, ROG Ally, and the possible future Xbox Series M are "mobile consoles and mobile PC". I find that interesting.......
 
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rofif

Can’t Git Gud
This reminds me.... I've made this vid few years back. I think it is more relevant now than ever! (turn on the sound!)
I've poured my heart into this!


charles
(link if it's not working)
 

Metnut

Member
It’s a win win for console gamers and PC gamers. More non-GAAS games for everyone that we can own.

Only downside is annoying dorks cluttering game threads by spamming how they get 400fps with their 4090, but that’s a small price to pay to improve the ROI on AAA single player games and keep them coming for at least another decade.
 
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lucbr

Member
Consoles are not dying but also the market is not expanding. Like he showed, the numbers didn't increase and with the low margins the companies need to find new players and new sources of income. Microsoft has been doing that, Sony is beginning to do the same. It won't change anything for us who play in consoles but it will do good for the companies to keep investing.

Now, for consoles warriors, it will be difficult days. Maybe only Nintendo will keep exclusives. Playstation games will only be exclusive temporarily, no doubt about that. And Xbox already doesn't have console exclusives.
 
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