Way too early for Naito and he just lost to Tanaka, so I don't think he has much of a chance. Better to slowly build him back up after his injury and give him a push next year I think.
Shibata should be next in line for a title shot but I don't think he'll win the G1, headline Wrestle Kingdom 8 or carry around the silly briefcase. I could see him beating Okada to set that match up in the future though.
The other option you didn't bring up is Tanahashi but his injured back will probably keep him out of the title picture for a while and after the G1, I think he'll mostly be in tag matches.
Nakamura's the one that makes the most sense. It's about time he got back into the heavyweight title picture, his swag can pull off the briefcase with ease and the CHAOS feud will make Wrestle Kingdom 8 really interesting.
This is why the G1 is so great, there's so much potential, it's really hard to tell where it's going to go - if Naito's ready (and I'm not sure that he is), I could see he being one of the major players in his block, either with a streak of wins early on, or a late rush towards the end. A lot depends, however, on how they're handling the briefcase this year - Okada has said if he wins he won't defend the title until Tokyo Dome (so Okada isn't winning, basically), whereas Shibata has said that if he wins he won't wait for the Tokyo Dome. Up until Tanahashi & Okada were announced in the same block, I was sure they were going for Okada vs Tanahashi V at Wrestle Kingdom, but now I agree with you, Tanahashi probably won't win this year. Realistically, I could see a few scenarios, from most to least likely;
. Shibata wins, challenges Okada for the next big PPV (Destruction, on September 29th)
. Nakamura wins, waits for Tokyo Dome to challenge Okada, but tensions rise between the two CHAOS members between now and then.
. Goto wins and, whether at Destruction or the Tokyo Dome, they finally pull the trigger on a IWGP title run for him.
. Naito wins and they build Naito vs Okada for the Dome.
. Anderson wins, becoming the first gaijin to do so in 24 years.
. Suzuki wins, the CHAOS vs Suzuki-gun feud continues and Suzuki defeats Okada at the Tokyo Dome.
LiquidSolid said:
Real talk here. WWE is merely decent, people just think it's great because they've been suffering through 12-13 years of shit. NJPW, on the other hand, is fucking amazing. There's such a huge gap between the two promotions it's embarrassing.
If you're solely looking for the best in-ring product on the planet, then yeah, I agree that there's just no beating New Japan - but, that's not to say there haven't been some fantastic matches in WWE this year, it's just that it is a different style and presentation and a fair few people simply prefer that style.