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[Elaugaufein]

Vic Senate in 5 Lib 4 Lab 2 Green 1 Hinch

Will update with running count and likely result when I get the implications down.

Running Total: 20 Lib 18 Lab 7 Grn 3 NXT 1 One Nation 1 Lambie

Likely Outcome is unchanged from yesterday (I believe it's technically 1 more Lib and 1 less Nat but that means ~nothing):

30 Coalition 26 Labor 9 Greens 3 One Nation 3 Xenophon 2 Liberal Democrat (or +1 Christian Democrat (thanks NSW) and/or +1 One Nation (thanks Queensland)) 1 FF 1 Hinch 1 Lambie

QLD is 9 am tomorrow. NSW is probably tomorrow or Friday but unscheduled.

 

[Shandy]

Facebook copypasta is making the rounds warning Australians of the horrors that await us if we dare mark ourselves as having no religion on the census. Since those sneaky Moozlems are sneaky, they'll all mark themselves down as Muslim and the ABS will have no choice but to say Australia is a Muslim country! The horror!

Personally, I think it's about time we address the subversive Islamic supermajority. I mean, 500-odd thousand freedom-hating terrorists? They outnumber us by, like, a bajillion to one! What are we gonna do?!

 

[Elaugaufein]

Facebook copypasta is making the rounds warning Australians of the horrors that await us if we dare mark ourselves as having no religion on the census. Since those sneaky Moozlems are sneaky, they'll all mark themselves down as Muslim and the ABS will have no choice but to say Australia is a Muslim country! The horror!

Personally, I think it's about time we address the subversive Islamic supermajority. I mean, 500-odd thousand freedom-hating terrorists? They outnumber us by, like, a bajillion to one! What are we gonna do?!

I mentioned earlier that I pointed out of someone that both no religion and Catholic outnumbered Muslims by ~10:1 and it still had no effect.

 

[Quasar]

Facebook copypasta is making the rounds warning Australians of the horrors that await us if we dare mark ourselves as having no religion on the census. Since those sneaky Moozlems are sneaky, they'll all mark themselves down as Muslim and the ABS will have no choice but to say Australia is a Muslim country! The horror!

Personally, I think it's about time we address the subversive Islamic supermajority. I mean, 500-odd thousand freedom-hating terrorists? They outnumber us by, like, a bajillion to one! What are we gonna do?!

Makes me want to mark myself as muslim on census form.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Queensland Senate in. Queensland continues to be the Texas of Australia by managing even worse Senate Results than predicted:

5 LNP 4 Lab 2 One Nation 1 Green (-1 Lib Dem, +1 One Nation)

Running Total: 25 Lib 22 Lab 8 Grn 3 NXT 3 One Nation 1 Lambie

Likely Outcome is now

30 Coalition 26 Labor 9 Greens 4 One Nation 3 Xenophon 1 Liberal Democrat (or +1 Christian Democrat) 1 FF 1 Hinch 1 Lambie

That makes PHON a bigger voting block than NXT unless some NSW miracle occurs. The replacement of a Lib Dem with PHON changes little except increasing protectionism (valid paths for the kind of legislation One Nation would oppose still exist through Labor and/or the Greens (though its now exclusively so)). As to the ABCC I have no idea if One Nation is Katter-type (pro-union) or not but as far as it goes they'd be no worse than a Lib Dem).

NSW due soon.

 

[Elaugaufein]

And we're officially done:

NSW 5 Lib 4 Lab 1 Green 1 One Nation 1 Lib Dem (Ljeyonhelm rides again).

Final Total: 30 Lib 26 Lab 9 Grn 4 One Nation 3 NXT 1 Lib Dem 1 Family First (Day) 1 Lambie 1 Hinch


One Nation are the 4th largest voting block and the largest outside the Big 2 and MajorMinor 1. Queensland should be ashamed of itself (as I am).

 

[Shaneus]

Ljeyonhelm is still in? Ugh.

 

[darkace]

Wait NXT only got one? Was that expected?

 

[Elaugaufein]

Wait NXT only got one? Was that expected?

Numbers are first then names. NXT got 3.

Ljeyonhelm is still in? Ugh.

The Gunner is back and the only not a Liberal because he's got more spine than Bernadi or Abetz combined Dementor known as Bob Day is too.

 

[bobnowhere]

Wow, 2 seats on under 1.2 quotas. That must have been some preference flow. ONP are going to want stuff to pass the ABCC and other high profile bills, here comes the RC into brown people! Turnbull will never agree to that but some sort of senate inquiry is probably not out of the question.

It's hard to pin down where Hanson stands on Unions, she's very protectionist and for workers rights but seems to hate the ALP and the Unions by default. Probably just a party of even more unhinged Katter-ites.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Wow, 2 seats on under 1.2 quotas. That must have been some preference flow. ONP are going to want stuff to pass the ABCC and other high profile bills, here comes the RC into brown people! Turnbull will never agree to that but some sort of senate inquiry is probably not out of the question.

It's hard to pin down where Hanson stands on Unions, she's very protectionist and for workers rights but seems to hate the ALP and the Unions by default. Probably just a party of even more unhinged Katter-ites.

Hmm. I think that's possible it appears the perogative for Royal Commisions is effectively entirely with the PM (it's a matter for the GG but refusal would be close to unprecedented). On the other hand that would torpedo any potential deals with Labor, the Greens and probably Xenophon as well.

For Quota One Nation draws RUA , ALA , Justice preferences before Libs. I imagine they just out preferenced the Lib and rode their exhaust to victory. Will confirm later.

 

[darkace]

Numbers are first then names. NXT got 3.

Wow yea how'd I miss that. Thanks for the write-ups.

 

[bobnowhere]

Bill Leak this morning:

He truly is a poisonous P.O.S.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Bill Leak this morning:

He truly is a poisonous P.O.S.

Yes, we already know he works for the Australian. (Though letting that through shows bad judgment even for their editorial board).

 

[bomma_man]

I wish ConstructMe was still here to give us his hot take

 

[darkace]

Who's ConstructMe. Is his take good.

 

[Candescence]

Former UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband weighs in on the Rudd issue, saying that Rudd was "undoubtedly qualified" for the position of UN Secretary General.

In other words, people who have actually interacted with Rudd on the international stage think he's qualified and that Turnbull's decision is just the result of partisan nonsense.

 

[Rubixcuba]

I wish ConstructMe was still here to give us his hot take

Man, weren't those the days.

 

[bomma_man]

Who's ConstructMe. Is his take good.

He got banned for saying that calling Adam Goodes a gorilla wasn't racist because Goodes does in fact look like a gorilla.

 

[darkace]

He got banned for saying that calling Adam Goodes a gorilla wasn't racist because Goodes does in fact look like a gorilla.

I feel bad for laughing at how ridiculous that is. That's terrible.

 

[bobnowhere]

He got banned for saying that calling Adam Goodes a gorilla wasn't racist because Goodes does in fact look like a gorilla.

Haha, I forgot about that. That'll do it everytime.

I love how everyone seems to be drawing Turbull getting smaller and smaller, suits his current political stature.



Can't wait for the first time the bank bosses face the economics committee.

ScoMo: "So why are you not passing on the full rate decrease?"
Bank CEOs: "We serve customers and share holders."
ScoMo: " Cool, see you next year!"

 

[darkace]

If people want the rate cut then shop around. The big banks give you stability, brand power and low-risk, not low rates.

 

[Ruthless_Barbarian]

Brexit
Donald Trump
4 seats to One Nation


What a shit year

 

[Elaugaufein]

Looks like it wasn't the Libs that elected One Nations 2 Senator in QLD it was partly a partial Quota, soaking the lions share of the Queensland right micros and the 5th Lib needing to get over from 0.5 of a surplus (soaking up the saner right wing votes and preventing them going to Xenophon).

Also enough Labor voters that it wasn't people dutifully filling in all the boxes but that was late enough it didn't matter and a very small number. A similar thing happened with a fraction of NXTs vote (which at least makes moderately more sense because all Libs were elected or excluded by then).

(Also 4 clearly very confused Green votes went to ON after Larissa Waters was elected. WTF people ? In what universe does it make sense to preference Greens then One Nation.)

 

[Yagharek]

The same universe where Green senators voted for voting reform.

 

[D.Lo]

You're assuming people vote rationally.

Some could have been random box numbering, some could have been 'what will create the biggest mess I want chaos' comedy votes.

 

[Elaugaufein]

The same universe where Green senators voted for voting reform.

That was both good policy and also Greens policy since 2004. Well closer to it than what we had and the Liberals didn't want anything else for it, so it was a good deal. Its also policy that Labor would have had to support if the Greens hadn't and Labor cynically used as a wedge.

 

[Yagharek]

That was both good policy and also Greens policy since 2004. Well closer to it than what we had and the Liberals didn't want anything else for it, so it was a good deal. Its also policy that Labor would have had to support if the Greens hadn't and Labor cynically used as a wedge.

Surely modelling would have forecast the possibility of an even more feral senate or greater crazy numbers.

 

[Aarglefarg]

Surely modelling would have forecast the possibility of an even more feral senate or greater crazy numbers.

I remember reading a claim maybe 2 years ago that someone who was working with the Greens made a comment on their phone in public that voting reforms would result in more (at the time) PUP etc seats and so they shouldn't label the other minor parties in some graphics so more Greens-supporters would favour changes.

 

[Arksy]

I was going to say something asinine along the lines of; 'Oh so no more legislation for three years? Good!'

But it seems like almost all of the terrible legislation from the last parliament was bipartisan. God damn it.

 

[i_am_ben]

Former UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband weighs in on the Rudd issue, saying that Rudd was "undoubtedly qualified" for the position of UN Secretary General.

In other words, people who have actually interacted with Rudd on the international stage think he's qualified and that Turnbull's decision is just the result of partisan nonsense.

Don't be ridiculous. Rudd is a megalomaniac.

Pretty much every minister and public servant who has ever worked with him despises him.

 

[darkace]

Don't be ridiculous. Rudd is a megalomaniac.

Pretty much every minister and public servant who has ever worked with him despises him.

I have to think the only reason that we are hearing so much about Rudd from the left is because Turnbull was actually doing quite well with the NT RC and receiving a majority in the HOR. Nobody could think Rudd was qualified after the stories on him as leader came out.

Seems like a classic opposition distraction move.

 

[i_am_ben]

I have to think the only reason that we are hearing so much about Rudd from the left is because Turnbull was actually doing quite well with the NT RC and receiving a majority in the HOR. Nobody could think Rudd was qualified after the stories on him as leader came out.

Seems like a classic opposition distraction move.

eh. I don't think it's anything more than just party politics.

But honestly Rudd is simply unfit for the office of Secretary General. I mean how bad of a person do you have to be when the Public Service cheer the downfall of a Labor leader?

I understand it would be great to have an Aussie as Secretary General. The indirect benefits to Australia would be immense but allowing Kevin Rudd to be the leader of the UN would be a mistake.

 

[darkace]

eh. I don't think it's anything more than just party politics.

But honestly Rudd is simply unfit for the office of Secretary General. I mean how bad of a person do you have to be when the Public Service cheer the downfall of a Labor leader?

I understand it would be great to have an Aussie as Secretary General. The indirect benefits to Australia would be immense but allowing Kevin Rudd to be the leader of the UN would be a mistake.

I wish Gillard ran. She'd make an awesome SG. Negotiation and administration are right up her alley.

 

[Arksy]

Helen Clarke would be pretty good, and about as close as you can to having an Australian at the helm of the UN.

 

[Elaugaufein]

I remember reading a claim maybe 2 years ago that someone who was working with the Greens made a comment on their phone in public that voting reforms would result in more (at the time) PUP etc seats and so they shouldn't label the other minor parties in some graphics so more Greens-supporters would favour changes.

Sort of ? They would have given Labor + Greens blocking majority under the two previous elections but they also would have increased PUP. None of the parties involved in the legislation really stood to benefit massively from the change (and expert evidence to that effect was given). Labor would have benefited strongly but they Dream of a world where the Greens fuck off and die and give them their voters back to much to care about the combined numbers.

The main enabler of Hanson was the DD not the reform (in Queensland she would have gotten up even with the Liberals usually shutting One Nation out by preferencing Labor above them since she got 1.2 quotas on first preference). She probably would have gotten up even in a normal DD under the old system too since she would have had ~0.7 of a Quota and mainly rode right wing micros to victory. But at a half-Senate in either system she probably wouldn't have had anyone else. DDs are always dumb ideas for a governments unless you genuinely have critical legislation. The half-quota will always elect a micro in each state due to their tight intra-prefrence flows and their vote share being over a Quota. The only reason you don't get a left wing micro as well is because the Greens vacuum up those votes and get the larger share of the preference from each preventing a snowball.

Also when did the Greens stop counting as Crossbench ? Media reports aren't counting the Greens as Crossbench but since they aren't Government or Opposition they should be.

 

[bobnowhere]

Helen Clarke would be pretty good, and about as close as you can to having an Australian at the helm of the UN.

Helen Clarke has also been chasing the job for like 10 years, Rudd has popped up in the last 18 months or so.

Rudd was always as outsider, the government were only endorsing him to run and very likely lose. The story seems to have grown to the point that somehow Turnbull personally has denied Rudd becoming the ruler of the world. Anyway by all accounts the next boss will come from Eastern Europe, it's their turn, and only Clarke can disrupt that.

It will probably be Irina Bokova.

I have to think the only reason that we are hearing so much about Rudd from the left is because Turnbull was actually doing quite well with the NT RC and receiving a majority in the HOR. Nobody could think Rudd was qualified after the stories on him as leader came out.

Seems like a classic opposition distraction move.

Turnbull fucked that one up on his own by going off at lightspeed to try to look like he is capable of making a decision, any decision. And the likes of Bernardi are still fucking it up more than a week later.


Saw a bit of the ONP 2nd candidate in QLD. He's a right conspiracy crank that one. CSIRO, BoM, the UN, the banks, thinly veiled anti-antisemitism, Islam etc... Must be hard work knowing the whole world is out to get you.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Helen Clarke has also been chasing the job for like 10 years, Rudd has popped up in the last 18 months or so.

Rudd was always as outsider, the government were only endorsing him to run and very likely lose. The story seems to have grown to the point that somehow Turnbull personally has denied Rudd becoming the ruler of the world. Anyway by all accounts the next boss will come from Eastern Europe, it's their turn, and only Clarke can disrupt that.

It will probably be Irina Bokova.

I doubt an Australian would make it in any case. All permanent members of the security council get a veto and neither Russia or China like our tendency to be the US's regional enforcer and would likely veto.

 

[Arksy]

I doubt an Australian would make it in any case. All permanent members of the security council get a veto and neither Russia or China like our tendency to be the US's regional enforcer and would likely veto.

In that case, I hope the UK veto's anyone from the EU.

 

[Elaugaufein]

In that case, I hope the UK veto's anyone from the EU.

There's no way in hell they would at the moment. They can't afford to take the potential trade repercussions (hell they probably can't afford to take the inevitable trade repercussions already coming in the short term). Maybe in the next round if they some how manage a miraculous Preferential Trade Agreement Forest outside the EU over the next few years.

 

[darkace]

Turnbull fucked that one up on his own by going off at lightspeed to try to look like he is capable of making a decision, any decision. And the likes of Bernardi are still fucking it up more than a week later.

Turnbull made the right decision. Rudd is a maniac.

 

[Yagharek]

Helen Clarke would be pretty good, and about as close as you can to having an Australian at the helm of the UN.

And when she does a great job we'll claim her as an aussie

 

[Elaugaufein]

And when she does a great job we'll claim her as an aussie

I believe the convention requires her to have spent time here for us to do that.

 

[bobnowhere]

Yep, Roberts is a right nutter.

 

[Elaugaufein]

William Bowe , of the Poll Bludger linked to this on his blog: http://www.galileomovement.com.au/docs/AffidavitGillard.pdf

So Robert is also a Sovereign Citizen / Free Man on the Land. He's a deep well of crazy.

Maybe he, Bernadi , Abetz and the Nationals could form their own party and invite Katter.

 

[darkace]

William Bowe , of the Poll Bludger linked to this on his blog: http://www.galileomovement.com.au/docs/AffidavitGillard.pdf

So Robert is also a Sovereign Citizen / Free Man on the Land. He's a deep well of crazy.

Maybe he, Bernadi , Abetz and the Nationals could form their own party and invite Katter.

It's like an Australian Timecube. It looks like something a lawyer would scrawl on the walls of an insane asylum.

 

[Elaugaufein]

It's like an Australian Timecube. It looks like something a lawyer would scrawl on the walls of an insane asylum.

It's actually standard form for Sov Cit / Free Man / Posse Comitatus pseudo-legal gibberish documents, which is why they tend to do badly in court*. The content bits are his though and no better.

*Can you claim inadequate council if you represent yourself ? Though maybe incompetent to stand trial is more applicable ?

 

[Elaugaufein]

I can't decide what the appropriate emotional reaction is to a One Nation voter calling the Greens fringe extremists.

Edit - Also NSW Greens, you suck*. I'm trying to see where Greens preferences went but it's impossible to do since they either clipped 1 Quota from just under or got to 2 from ~1.3. Qld was no help due to low surplus. NSW is worse because you can see the faction war going on (there's points where lower ranking candidates get excluded and only half their vote stays with the Greens) which makes tracing preference flows out almost impossible. I can't see SA being much use either due to the really low initial count.

*By which I mean you make my life difficult.

 

[bomma_man]

William Bowe , of the Poll Bludger linked to this on his blog: http://www.galileomovement.com.au/docs/AffidavitGillard.pdf

So Robert is also a Sovereign Citizen / Free Man on the Land. He's a deep well of crazy.

Maybe he, Bernadi , Abetz and the Nationals could form their own party and invite Katter.

Of course he fucking is.

But by being a member of parliament surely he's consented to it having it bind him?

 

[jellies_two]

One Nation senator-elect Malcolm Roberts wrote bizarre 'sovereign citizen' letter to Julia Gillard

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-po...-letter-to-julia-gillard-20160804-gqlesa.html

That stylisation of names is commonly used by self-identified sovereign citizens who believe governments use grammar to enslave their citizens and that this can be escaped through the use of hyphens and colons.

He called on Australia to "cancel all of this climate nonsense" and said One Nation senators would work hard to "scuttle" every piece of existing climate change legislation.

Mr Roberts, who received just 77 first preference votes, will take his Senate seat on August 30 and will receive a taxpayer-funded base salary of $199,040, plus staff and entitlements.

facepalm.gif