I hate to pull this one, but how old are you?
You are making yourself look terrible all by yourself.
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AusPoliGaf |Early 2016 Election| - the government's term has been... Shortened
- Thread starter Bernbaum
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I hate to pull this one, but how old are you?
You are making yourself look terrible all by yourself.
Spicy.
For doing what? Being annoyed that somebody is arguing against facts using nothing but ideological priors? The dude hasn't presented any evidence whatsoever. I showed nearly a dozen papers for my position, and his counter is 'nuh-uh'. It's just awful.
feels like turnbull is slowly being painted as a typical member of his party, when earlier he was the lefty outlier. The panama paper and house joke thing hasn't helped.
the backburner has been having a field week.
30yearsofhurt
Member
Too hard to tell without any reasonable polling. Political polling in Australia is pretty lousy plus the nature of the process (PV and single member electorates) makes non-targeted polling useless. The only people who really know whats going on are the party number crunchers.
As to the week the Penrith walk was the only misstep.
The secret debate is just about irrelevant. People were watching football, not Sky News.
The Peta Credlin slurs don't really mean anything in the greater scheme of things.
The Alan Jones v Mike Baird stoush won't affect it.
No great missteps but I don't think people will really start to get interested until we get to week 5 or 6. It is funny however that the budget isn't helping the LNP one bit.
bobnowhere
Member
Wait, they've started yet? Someone should tell Chris Pyne, he thinks he still the minister and the caretaker period hasn't started yet.
Maybe Shorten by a Man-boob but only really because he has performed above the meager expectations we all have for him. No score, draw?
Elaugaufein
Member
Shorten winning a Sky News debate pretty decisively was unexpected. And being so late it indicates nothing he did in the week soured people on him. So a good week for Shorten I think.
That may not be a good thing for him though, Turnbull will almost certainly be working out where things went wrong and adjusting spin and positions appropriately.
ETA - Technically writs aren't issued until Monday, so the Caretaker mode hasn't begin.
That may not be a good thing for him though, Turnbull will almost certainly be working out where things went wrong and adjusting spin and positions appropriately.
ETA - Technically writs aren't issued until Monday, so the Caretaker mode hasn't begin.
30yearsofhurt
Member
PM&C guidance is that it starts when the GG dissolves the house.
bobnowhere
Member
Caretaker starts when the Governor dissolves parliament. Though to be honest half the stuff is just convention anyway!
Quite a slick picture of Mal on that website, a little concerned how far to the right he is though. Needs to move a little to the left methinks.
30yearsofhurt
Member
Caretaker starts when the Governor dissolves parliament. Though to be honest half the stuff is just convention anyway!
Quite a slick picture of Mal on that website, a little concerned how far to the right he is though. Needs to move a little to the left methinks.
Marky Mark
Member
^^^ lol
And it may sound callous to be making fun of the MH17 victim's dad situation but boy did Malcolm sound completely disingenuous with his "cheer up, cheer up" consoling. I assumed the dad was a plant at first but then Malcom's reaction was just cringeworthy.
And it may sound callous to be making fun of the MH17 victim's dad situation but boy did Malcolm sound completely disingenuous with his "cheer up, cheer up" consoling. I assumed the dad was a plant at first but then Malcom's reaction was just cringeworthy.
Elaugaufein
Member
Caretaker starts when the Governor dissolves parliament. Though to be honest half the stuff is just convention anyway!
Quite a slick picture of Mal on that website, a little concerned how far to the right he is though. Needs to move a little to the left methinks.
Thanks for the correction.
I believe it's all convention, Rudd blatantly ignored it on at least one issue. I believe Howard did in 2000 as well. Its not like it could be legislated meaningfully anyway, in the case of things which solely effect the House the government could almost always suspend it (since majority by definition) and for things that effect the Senate as well they either have to deal with a convention backed Senate obstructing them or are in a position to suspend it anyway. You'd have to put Caretaker conventions in the Constitution to make them meaningful.
30yearsofhurt
Member
Now for the Vote that matters.
Vote #1 Dami!
Vote #1 Dami!
bobnowhere
Member
About halfway through and I think Antony Green just called it.
30yearsofhurt
Member
hey, wha happen?
Aarglefarg
Member
Coalition going on the attack today with fear and safety.
Jobs and growth, but fear fear fear.
Trying to get Bill Shorten to disendorse a candidate who worked for an lawyers organisation that in 2009 campaigned against police powers to detain suspects without charge. Making that into Labor being bad with national security.
http://www.9news.com.au/national/2016/05/14/13/38/candidate-toes-line-on-terror-shorten
Jobs and growth, but fear fear fear.
Trying to get Bill Shorten to disendorse a candidate who worked for an lawyers organisation that in 2009 campaigned against police powers to detain suspects without charge. Making that into Labor being bad with national security.
http://www.9news.com.au/national/2016/05/14/13/38/candidate-toes-line-on-terror-shorten
Shit like that makes me (and probably about 70% of the country) more likely to vote for her than less.
bobnowhere
Member
Except Tim Wilson, The ex-Freedom Commissioner, also criticised them last year. I imagine that will shut down this pathetic LNP dog-whistle.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-bill-shorten-digs-up-liberal-history-to-fend-off-growing-attack-over-asylum-seeker-divisions-20160515-govfbb.html
A little more research next time George!
Edit: From Today.
For those who don't know, the Western Bulldogs are from a traditional Labor area and Melbourne who they were playing it very Liberal.
bobnowhere
Member
Blatant double post:
Morgan:
Seems very high and pretty unlikely, but will probably still cause some havoc tomorrow. Still a bit anyone but the ALP primary wise.
Morgan:
- Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47.5 (-1.5) ALP 52.5 (+1.5)
- Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 36.5 (-3.5) ALP 33 (+0.5) GRN 15.5 (+2) NXT 5 (+1)
Seems very high and pretty unlikely, but will probably still cause some havoc tomorrow. Still a bit anyone but the ALP primary wise.
Elaugaufein
Member
No topic seems to be listed on the website for tonight. Judging by the questions and panelists seems to have something to do with ISIL ?
Panellists: Kate Tempest, Award-winning poet and rapper; Jean-Christophe Rufin, Co-founder, Medecins Sans Frontieres; Ayaan Hirsi Ali, Controversial Somalian feminist and author Heretic; Julian Baggini, Philosopher; and Emma Sky, Former adviser to the US military in Iraq.
bobnowhere
Member
I believe the panel is from the Sydney Writer's Festival tonight.
Quality candidate from the Nats in Indi (McGowen, Mirabella etc...)
Didn't sometime tell him never to start a sentence with: Not to sound _______ but...?
Quality candidate from the Nats in Indi (McGowen, Mirabella etc...)
Didn't sometime tell him never to start a sentence with: Not to sound _______ but...?
Morgan has a history of being all over the place, and over-emphasising trends in the electorate (I think it hit 64-36 LNP-ALP at the height of the carbon tax drama), it's not something I'd put too much store in. Bludger-track has movement away from the ALP since the budget, which is a trend I see continuing. I'd put money on the LNP winning without undermining from Abbott or Turnbull saying something way out of character.
It was boring! It's like watching Jerry Springer and a rational discussion breaks out.
SHAFT MASTER
Banned
Because their buddies in mining probably have a seven figure job waiting for them when they get out of politics.
http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/austr...-peta-credlin-says/ar-BBt7lEy?ocid=spartanntp
Huh? Wasn't Turnbull recently saying it would hurt house pricing?
It's not going to improve housing affordability, but it's going to lower the cost of housing. Makes sense.
Elaugaufein
Member
Someone is going to buy up all the cheap housing and then sell/rent it for even more due to their near monopoly? (In which case Turnbull probably shouldn't be telling us about his supervillain fantasies).
Removing negative gearing is essentially just a tax increase. My guess is he's going for the decrease in housing prices will be offset by the decrease in disposable income.
Or it's just dumb politicking.
Probably the latter.
I mean it's a tax increase for the people who were using it. For the rest of us it's going to be a tax cut because I won't have to pay so much in stamp duty.
It's a fairly large net tax increase. NG has very little to do with current housing prices, removing it wont save anybody much in stamp duty. Or help new home buyers much.
jellies_two
Member
I don't know why you think that.
Every auction I went to in the last 5 years in Sydney, and the last apartment I owned and sold, was beset by investors using NG. Take it away and they don't compete so hard or exit the market. They don't compete so hard, the prices fetched drop. What that does to rents is anyones guess and I wouldn't trust anyone who has a fixed view on that, but I don't see how anyone can state flatly that NG doesn't impact prices. If you give big incentives to people to pick property for their money, and property is limited, then it is obvious what happens and equally obvious what happens when it goes away.
roosters93
Member
I find that a little hard to believe on the face of it
Yep, it's difficult to buy an investment property with a view to make a profit (or break even) from rent. The highest bidder is always going to be someone buying with negative gearing in mind. Remove that and prices will dip no doubt. Whether that dip will be significant or not I have no idea.
NG makes houses cheaper to invest in. Please explain how that doesn't inflate house prices.
Speaking of negative gearing.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...if-its-negatively-geared-20160517-gowys9.html
If the Greens get Liberal preferences in Batman they could very well win the seat.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...if-its-negatively-geared-20160517-gowys9.html
If the Greens get Liberal preferences in Batman they could very well win the seat.
Because I'm a fan of evidence-based beliefs rather than just thinking from my gut.
https://grattan.edu.au/report/hot-property/
The effects of reducing NG by itself aren't that much. Even combined with CGT changes it wouldn't have much of an effect.
Grattan said:
Our housing prices are largely driven by supply factors.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2016/may/16/we-need-to-talk-about-inflation-the-great-debate-missing-from-this-election-campaign
Is either party doing anything to stimulate demand?
Is either party doing anything to stimulate demand?
Your article says it removing it "won't cause a collapse" but recommendeds it be phased in over time to prevent one. Clearly prices are related to NG for them to make that recommendation.
Elaugaufein
Member
The infrastructure and manufacturing promises are localised second hand stimulation (by putting money into the economy) but with the acceptance of the tightening the belt mantra (and desire for tax cuts on the Liberal side), you're not going to see any direct stimulus (apart from maybe the small business instant tax deduction for goods).
There isn't much the Australian government or the RBA can do.
http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/ben-bernanke/posts/2015/03/30-why-interest-rates-so-low
Bernanke said:
This is from the US, but it can largely be drawn across to Australia. Australia doesn't have many infrastructure investments with a positive return (other than maybe NBN), although our debt is lower.
Bernanke also says later he thinks that it's largely driven by policies in Germany, which has a current accounts surplus so massive it is depressing demand globally, and the depression in the wider Eurozone.
It says prices will fall about 2% right there. Obviously government policies can cause problems in the markets, especially changes. Which is why any change should be phased in. But don't expect these changes to have a large impact.
D.Lo
Member
Lol at all the arguments against clawing back negative gearing and the even more ridiculous CGT discount. It's ludicrous that you get a tax break for losing money on an investment in something as non-productive as property.
It's only a tax increase if you're rich enough to have the borrowing power to buy multi hundred thousand dollar investments. And if you are rich enough to borrow and invest, the government should incentivise something that doesn't make other people modern day serfs.
Removing NG and CGT exemption is only a tax increase on the 'winnings' of investments that create a two tier society. For the 91% of Australian tax payers who do not negative gear property, there will be no tax increase.
It's only a tax increase if you're rich enough to have the borrowing power to buy multi hundred thousand dollar investments. And if you are rich enough to borrow and invest, the government should incentivise something that doesn't make other people modern day serfs.
Removing NG and CGT exemption is only a tax increase on the 'winnings' of investments that create a two tier society. For the 91% of Australian tax payers who do not negative gear property, there will be no tax increase.
Holy shit.
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