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AusPoliGaf |Early 2016 Election| - the government's term has been... Shortened

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darkace

Banned
Oooof. This is displaying as much if not significantly more ignorance than the frequent dismissal of economists' perspectives (that said, economists deserve it for collectively establishing a fake nobel prize for the field).

Meteorology - UK Met Office hit > 90% accuracy for 2 day forecasts

Climatology - Temperature forecast chart compared to observations from a forecast issued in 1981 matches up pretty well to today's observations since. Bonus picture:



I'd argue more in favour of seismology but I believe there are some geologists on the forum who could add more. But you already know that dealing with craton-continent scale features and stress buildup within them is pretty challenging and the nature of a prediction in seismology is different to a stock market forecast. It's also less likely to be made with conflicts of interest.

I mean I can make the same claims about economics. If you're making claims over the next few days (which I'd also add nearly nobody does), then they're going to be pretty close to accurate. And if you cherry pick the worst bit of one science and the best bit of another then clearly one will be significantly worse off.

The thing to understand is that there is near unanimous consensus among most economics questions when framed positively. Free trade is good but negatively impacts the lower classes in the first world, deficits aren't inherently problematic but should be contained, minimum wages aren't the best welfare tool but still have value, etc. The public debate about economics has very much in common with the public debate about climate change in that they don't resemble the academic debate at all. Economists have been in favour of a negative income tax, a land-value tax and a carbon tax for decades, for instance. And economists hate company taxes.

Macro does have significant problems, but less than 10% of economists are in macro. And nobody tries to do things like predict recessions, which is just a waste of time.
 

bomma_man

Member
darkace is right in that right wing austerity economics is grossly over represented in the real world relative to its academic support. Fucking Reagan.
 
darkace is right in that right wing austerity economics is grossly over represented in the real world relative to its academic support. Fucking Reagan.

Reagan is hardly singular responsible for that. There was the backlash of the Cold War for one. The collapse of the Russian economic system for another. And for most of the Cold War, America tended to fuck up any economy in their Sphere of Influence trying socialist systems in case they decided to join the Commies. Also the problem that economics on a global scale is impossible to study with the kind of rigor found in the physical sciences. It's not like you can produce two copies of Earth and hold all other factors equal while a country tries 2 different economic systems (especially since trade wars might be the natural outcome of one of those systems).
 

Shaneus

Member
Coalition pulling the scary refugees lever faster than I expected. Internal polling must be giving them a scare.
Yup. And because they've gone for such an extreme (and callous) angle, I think it will catch them out pretty severely. Turnbull backing Dutton 110% isn't a good look, either.
 
Yup. And because they've gone for such an extreme (and callous) angle, I think it will catch them out pretty severely. Turnbull backing Dutton 110% isn't a good look, either.

Don't bet on it. There's a pretty significant population of voters who think out treatment of refugees is not yet sufficiently horrible. I prefer to think they are ignorant of the current situation, rather than believing that they believe the appropriate method to save people from drowning / protect our jobs / have strong borders is to commit crimes against humanity.
 
Dutton is a fucking moron.

That said I think the very best result the ALP could get is a hung parliament. Polling is showing that the ALP is not making gains in QLD and most of their gains will be from WA which is the wrong state they need to be making inroads in. If the ALP doesn't win QLD it doesn't win the election, simple as that.
 

darkace

Banned
darkace is right in that right wing austerity economics is grossly over represented in the real world relative to its academic support. Fucking Reagan.

I guess the same is true of the lefts 'trickle-up' whereby all we need to do to make the economy better off is stimulate AD from the bottom. In reality it's a whole heap more complex than that or 'tax cuts are everything the government should do'.
 
Dutton is a fucking moron.

That said I think the very best result the ALP could get is a hung parliament. Polling is showing that the ALP is not making gains in QLD and most of their gains will be from WA which is the wrong state they need to be making inroads in. If the ALP doesn't win QLD it doesn't win the election, simple as that.

I have no idea wtf is happening with Queensland and I live here. Elected Campbell Newman , Unelected Campbell Newman after one term, has a minority ALP Government that's crowning achievement appears to be being so Meh no one is really paying attention. LNP knifes a not particularly unpopular leader (Springborg) out of nowhere. No one seems to care much. There's usually a correlation between exhaustion with a state government and federal voting but Queensland is often more conservative Federally than at the State level (probably a reflection of the relatively conservative and populist nature of the state parties, which is partially a result of our unicameral Government).
 
Some more information on it:

A car that tried to overtake Shorten's convoy crashed into a third car in a serious accident. It is unclear how serious but a woman was trapped in a car for 45 minutes to an hour, who has now been taken in an ambulance. Shorten was comforting people involved and his campaign events have been cancelled for today and perhaps longer. He was moved away from the scene moments ago.
https://twitter.com/annajhenderson/status/733142130223276032
 

darkace

Banned
The type of governments run by two parties who are run by professional mercenaries who keep swapping PM every year or so I guess.

God how hard is it to have a Government and a PM with a vision for the future of the country?

We had two, Gillard and Abbott. That ended well.

Also comparing independent schools to government run is a waste of time without further qualifiers.

And really I liked the Gillard government, but shit like this:

Labor had made it hard for him, even if he had had the best will in the world. First it had insisted that no school be worse off, hugely inflating the Gonski's cost, and then, because it couldn't work out how to fund that cost, it pushed all but $3 billion of the $9.7 billion out into the final two years of the agreements, where it wouldn't show up in the budget's forward estimates.

Is just awful. Same with hospital funding. Slapping the LNP for not funding these things when the ALP never provided funding in the first place is insanity.
 

D.Lo

Member
We had two, Gillard and Abbott. That ended well.
Gillard never won an election, and offered 'moving forward' at the election she tied. She was only there because of mercenaries, not a vision sold to the public. Some people in that government had vision, but were living on borrowed time due to their mercenary tactics against Rudd.

Abbott had no vision. He had one policy about stopping boats and once it was done he was like a dog who caught the car he was chasing, lost and confused.

Howard had vision. A vision of a fully privatised version of 1950 unfortunately.
 

danm999

Member
It's difficult to say if Turnbull actually has vision or is just concerned with staying on top. Certainly he's ditched enough of his personal convictions since taking power to make ever adopting them again an embarassing debacle.

And should he win this next election I don't see him having a stronger hand with his own party. The numbers to flick him will be even better once his marginal seat MPs are wiped out. If anything he'll have a tougher time asserting authority.
 

D.Lo

Member
It's difficult to say if Turnbull actually has vision or is just concerned with staying on top. Certainly he's ditched enough of his personal convictions since taking power to make ever adopting them again an embarassing debacle.
Yeah he looked promising for a couple of months, but there's no unifying theme, or if there is, it's a 'keep the status quo' right wing one. Not even any urgency about debt etc like Hockey tried to pretend they were all about.

He has a shithouse team to work with too. So he can't ever lead a great government, no matter what.
 

darkace

Banned
Gillard never won an election, and offered 'moving forward' at the election she tied. She was only there because of mercenaries, not a vision sold to the public. Some people in that government had vision, but were living on borrowed time due to their mercenary tactics against Rudd.

What exactly would a vision look like to you? She was clearly pursuing an overarching centre-to-middle-left policy regarding the economy, climate change, education and health. Every single one of her governments policies clearly had a wider framework of a 'fairer' (whatever that really means) Australia in mind.

Abbott had no vision. He had one policy about stopping boats and once it was done he was like a dog who caught the car he was chasing, lost and confused.

Abbott had a vision, just one that was unpalatable to the electorate at large.

Howard had vision. A vision of a fully privatised version of 1950 unfortunately.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Privatisation is generally good policy as it allows companies to react to supply and demand changes where previously the incentive didn't exist before. It should be tempered with strong regulations where the possibility of rent-seeking exists (e.g. utilities), but it's still better than public ownership.

And Howard was clearly successful at making Australia a better place, just look at the NATSEM standard of living charts, or our real wages. His conservative fantasies never really played out in the electorate outside of denying gay marriage, which was never being passed prior to 2010 anyway.
 
So it looks like Richard Di Natale might be in some shit.
That shit being:
Greens leader Richard Di Natale failed to declare his family farm in Victoria's Otway Ranges for 15 months, breaching parliamentary rules and potentially placing him in "serious contempt" of the Senate.

And Senator Di Natale has paid three au pairs to help with his family as little as $150 a week after tax, or $3.75 an hour - based on a standard 40-hour week - as well as room and board worth $300 a week.

He says he made up the difference and paid above minimum wage requirements [based on advice from a payroll services company] and by requiring only 25 hours of work a week.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...e-home-pays-au-pairs-low-wage-20160519-goywxq
 
Labor party HQ in Melbourne is currently being raided by the AFP over leaks about the NBN. Less than two weeks in and it's straight to the basement not sure if anyone wants 6 more weeks of this.
 

hidys

Member
Labor party HQ in Melbourne is currently being raided by the AFP over leaks about the NBN. Less than two weeks in and it's straight to the basement not sure if anyone wants 6 more weeks of this.

Now it appears Stephen Conroy's office is being raided as well as the homes of some of his staff.

Is there any sort of precedence for this?
 

munchie64

Member
Labor party HQ in Melbourne is currently being raided by the AFP over leaks about the NBN. Less than two weeks in and it's straight to the basement not sure if anyone wants 6 more weeks of this.
Now it appears Stephen Conroy's office is being raided as well as the homes of some of his staff.

Is there any sort of precedence for this?
What the flying fuck?

Over fucking NBN? How is this a thing haha
 

hidys

Member
Slight correction it's actually a staffer for Jason Clare, not Conroy. Conroy's office is being raided though.
 
And Howard was clearly successful at making Australia a better place, just look at the NATSEM standard of living charts, or our real wages. His conservative fantasies never really played out in the electorate outside of denying gay marriage, which was never being passed prior to 2010 anyway.

standard of living or real wages may have risen during The Howard Years but why do you give him credit for it?
 
Yeah, it's possible there are legit reasons but people's homes seems very extreme.

If someone is leaking confidential or I suppose higher level documents an investigation is appropriate but it seems to conveniently ignore all the leaks going on against Abbott from Turnbull's side and the more recent stuff going to opposite way. There was even leaks from the Security Cabinet.

The whole thing screams political payback from the sitting government of the day.
 

danm999

Member
Filthy unwashed masses of asylum seekers and AFP raids of Labor HQs. Did Tony Abbott get put back in charge or something or is Mal more prone to panic than I thought.
 

darkace

Banned
standard of living or real wages may have risen during The Howard Years but why do you give him credit for it?

Why do you not? Keating was responsible for much of it but Howard continued his legacy for the most part. Everything we understand about the economy points to most of Howards policies increasing productivity over the long-run.

And if Howard wasn't responsible for the increase in SOL during his tenure was he responsible for it during Gillards or Rudds?
 

danm999

Member
Next up, ASIO is gonna slash Gillian Triggs' tires and leave a bag of flaming poop outside her door. That'll teach her.
 

darkace

Banned
Also watching people on other sites defend RDN is hilarious. The way people are squirming to defend him while not realising these are the same arguments they used on Turnbull with his Panama account is hilarious.
 
The Greens leak and this raid seem to be strangely co-ordinated.
I was thinking that the Greens leak would probably be overshadowed by the raid so unless Di Natale arranged the raids I don't think so. :)

Shorten comes out swinging at Turnbull over his mismanagement of the NBN and says he'll have more to say over the following days.
 

Spinifex

Member
The Greens thing seems to be a beat-up. Feeney copped to it straight away while Di Natale denies any wrong-doing. The same author of the au pair / farm expose recently published this, outraged that Greens conduct 'polling'.
 
So looks like annoyed nbn executives leaking internal memos to the labor party that could embarrass turnbull, have triggered some emergency AFP action:, raids on the Labour Party offices and questioning of nbn staff who may have leaked.
Because we can't know how the nbn rollout is slower and more expensive than we were told. especially not at an election period when the news may swing votes.
I guess.
Edit: ugh sorry i should have scrolled up higher it's been mentioned already.
 

Arksy

Member
This shouldn't be a crime. We needed to protect whistleblowers, instead we fucking cracked down on them. I say this as a liberal, for fucking shame.
 

Shaneus

Member
The Greens thing seems to be a beat-up. Feeney copped to it straight away while Di Natale denies any wrong-doing. The same author of the au pair / farm expose recently published this, outraged that Greens conduct 'polling'.
Yeah, I'm not sure what "declaring" in the context of this story is, but it's always been known that RDN lives on a farm.

As for the NBN leak fiasco, I saw a tweet about a rumour (purple monkey dishwasher) that apparently when The Lodge was being worked on and Tones stayed with the AFP, he did a little bit of groundwork/planted some seeds to get Mal/NBNco in some shit down the track.

I just hope this doesn't disqualify any of these leaked documents as evidence from any future ruling on the NBN.

This shouldn't be a crime. We needed to protect whistleblowers, instead we fucking cracked down on them. I say this as a liberal, for fucking shame.
The definition of a "small l" liberal should be that people have liberties like whistleblower protection. I can only see this looking bad for the Libs, Labor should come out looking somewhat clean by comparison.
 
The Greens thing seems to be a beat-up. Feeney copped to it straight away while Di Natale denies any wrong-doing. The same author of the au pair / farm expose recently published this, outraged that Greens conduct 'polling'.
Yeah, I'm seeing lots of dishonesty from people making it into an issue. He reported the farm as a business interest, and the pay was on top of living expenses and the article did the maths based on a 40 hour week despite also saying it was 25 hours.
Yeah, I'm not sure what "declaring" in the context of this story is, but it's always been known that RDN lives on a farm.
From what I see he reported it as a business interest but not as a real estate interest.
Section 10 in Di Natale's PDF notes the farm. http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Senators_Interests/Register_4_August
 

Shaneus

Member
Yeah, I'm seeing lots of dishonesty from people making it into an issue. He reported the farm as a business interest, and the pay was on top of living expenses and the article did the maths based on a 40 hour week despite also saying it was 25 hours.

From what I see he reported it as a business interest but not as a real estate interest.
Section 10 in Di Natale's PDF notes the farm. http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Senators_Interests/Register_4_August
So it's a beat-up then. Wow, Libs going on full offensive mode this campaign, hitting Labor AND Greens with the subtlety of a housebrick (from a negatively-geared house).
 

D.Lo

Member
Still, it's not a great look for the 'social justice' party leader to have multiple investment properties.

Apart from the odd Ricky Muir type, we have a parliament mostly full of millionaires.
 

Arksy

Member
It's as much of a beat up as Malcolm Turnbull being named in the Panama Papers. There has been no accusation that he did anything contrary to law. He was a business man engaging in legal transactions.

In this case, RDN may have actually broken the law, but it's so fucking trivial and there is a legal shield if he comes clean that it may as well be a beat up.

Also the AFP came out and rejected that they were influenced to raid the ALP by the Libs....I believe them, they are kind of about to prosecute Mal Brough, but it's really not a good look. >.<
 
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