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[Candescence]

Oh wow I might check it out tonight.

How bizarre that the majors are on the nose so much that a chunk of the electorate have turned to literally crazy people. I mean I guess it's lucky they're so bad and incompetent, it prevents them from winning like Trump.

Basically, Four Corners talks to the more sane former people in the party who were removed by Pauline and Ashby, including said former treasurer, who was basically responsible for encouraging Pauline's return to politics, only to Ashby to turn her against him for doing things like actually declaring a big donation from property developer Bill McNee (who was also responsible for buying that plane Pauline and Ashby have), which he emphasised was obeying the law.

Amongst other things, there was the couple in WA who were basically the admins of One Nation there who got booted for being "too old" to run for politics, the woman candidate who was dis-endorsed for criticising the preference deal with the Libs over Facebook (only to be vindicated by the election result), and another former candidate who quit on the eve of the election partly because her party was running the campaign so terribly that they sent her about a dozen boxes of invalid how-to-vote cards, because they lacked something as essential and basic as the printer's name and address, which she emphasised everyone knows is required for those things.

Basically, many of the people talked to who quit the party have stated that they've realized Pauline is a scumbag who is only in it for herself and will say anything to get attention.

Also, the people who picked up Pauline and Ashby to head to the secret meeting to discuss the Libs preference deal? Michaela Cash, with the person they were meeting being Matias Corman. While they are still part of the WA state branch, the fact that the deal was organized by federal ministers is a huge bombshell, as Turnbull has insisted that the deal was set up entirely by the state party.

 

[Shaneus]

Also, the people who picked up Pauline and Ashby to head to the secret meeting to discuss the Libs preference deal? Michaela Cash, with the person they were meeting being Matias Corman. While they are still part of the WA state branch, the fact that the deal was organized by federal ministers is a huge bombshell, as Turnbull has insisted that the deal was set up entirely by the state party.

Cash is a clueless halfwit anyway.

Don't forget the claim that for any members (running for a seat?) who leave the party are billed $250k for the privilege.

 

[danm999]

Also, the people who picked up Pauline and Ashby to head to the secret meeting to discuss the Libs preference deal? Michaela Cash, with the person they were meeting being Matias Corman. While they are still part of the WA state branch, the fact that the deal was organized by federal ministers is a huge bombshell, as Turnbull has insisted that the deal was set up entirely by the state party.

Yeah this part was my biggest takeaway, that the Federal branch were obviously flirting with the idea of a wider partnership with One Nation and were content to have Barnett act a guinea pig.

Hardly surprising after the WA election they finally started to call Pauline on her shit realizing she is probably useless to them everywhere but Qld.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Yeah this part was my biggest takeaway, that the Federal branch were obviously flirting with the idea of a wider partnership with One Nation and were content to have Barnett act a guinea pig.

Hardly surprising after the WA election they finally started to call Pauline on her shit realizing she is probably useless to them everywhere but Qld.

Its questionable if One Nation is useful in Queensland because it's a state where One Nation is strong enough to both take Seats themselves and divisive enough that it will tank the metro vote (where the Libs actually hold some seats atm). Though the LNP being one unit now could work for or against them so it's hard to say what the exact result will be this time.

 

[bobnowhere]

The rumor was that JBish was involved in the preference agreement but it looks as though she was wise enough to stay away from it and sent a few Senate numpties.

Eric Abetz implies that Gay Conversion is real and SSM is a conspiracy originating from Air-BNB, Qantas, ANZ and Fairfax. Might be time to get his head checked and start looking for a nursing home.

Also, Chris Bowen is at odds with the left wing as he's ruled out a "Buffet Rule" for Australia and espoused tradition neo-liberlism/growing the pie. As much as I normally like Bowen this could spell trouble for him. The left is emboldened and having the shadow treasurer and leader from the right is starting to grind.

 

[Elaugaufein]

The rumor was that JBish was involved in the preference agreement but it looks as though she was wise enough to stay away from it and sent a few Senate numpties.

Eric Abetz implies that Gay Conversion is real and SSM is a conspiracy originating from Air-BNB, Qantas, ANZ and Fairfax. Might be time to get his head checked and start looking for a nursing home.

Also, Chris Bowen is at odds with the left wing as he's ruled out a "Buffet Rule" for Australia and espoused tradition neo-liberlism/growing the pie. As much as I normally like Bowen this could spell trouble for him. The left is emboldened and having the shadow treasurer and leader from the right is starting to grind.

Meh. Labor not being lead from the Right has been (non-existent ?) for pretty much my entire life time until recently (last five - ten years) when for various reasons the Right has imploded to the extent that some Left member is pretty much the only viable choice they have. And Treasurer is probably right because of the factional pacts which tend to mean alternation in significant roles with the Right at the top and Treasure is right below Deputy unless there's a super-portfolio above it but that would be really rare.

 

[danm999]

High Court has ruled Bob Day was ineligible to be elected. Fun fun.

 

[bobnowhere]

High Court has ruled Bob Day was ineligible to be elected. Fun fun.

Very interesting. Now the wait for how they handle a group ticket of only one and it turns out the second FF candidate may have eligibility issues as she may not of renounced her Kenyan citizenship. Could deliver Labor a 4th.

 

[danm999]

Very interesting. Now the wait for how they handle a group ticket of only one and it turns out the second FF candidate may have eligibility issues as she may not of renounced her Kenyan citizenship. Could deliver Labor a 4th.

Had no idea about that, interesting.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Very interesting. Now the wait for how they handle a group ticket of only one and it turns out the second FF candidate may have eligibility issues as she may not of renounced her Kenyan citizenship. Could deliver Labor a 4th.

There's already a precedent that Group Tickets of 1 are valid once accepted if the remaining candidate is valid even though they aren't normally submittable, given that I'm quite sure the Ticket will stand. So it comes down to if FF made sure everything was in order for someone​ who had a 0% chance of getting elected.

 

[D.Lo]

Watched the four corners, what stood out to me was how it seems so many people involved in the party got told to fuck off so rapidly. Talk about no vision, 20 year supporters told to fuck off for basically np gain?

The whole party seems like a giant Ashby scam now.

 

[bomma_man]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RealMarkLatham?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

🤦🏼*♂️🤦🏼*♂️🤦🏼*♂️

 

[danm999]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RealMarkLatham?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

🤦🏼*♂️🤦🏼*♂️🤦🏼*♂️

Has someone called Mark to see if he's doing ok?

I mean he'd probably call them a Stalinist leftist poof for talking about feelings but still.

 

[bobnowhere]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RealMarkLatham?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

🤦🏼*♂️🤦🏼*♂️🤦🏼*♂️

I love how he was entertaining "offers" for The Outsiders but ended up live streaming it on facebook with dodgy audio. AS PVO said, there is nothing outside about an ex-pollie who successfully campaigned to get the pension rules changed for those that came after him but ensured he kept his own cushy pension.

He and Sam Dastyari are getting into it now, Sam is probably right, Latham hasn't been well for a while now, years in fact.

 

[luchadork]

is that really him? looks like a parody but without the obvious jokes.

 

[D.Lo]

AS PVO said, there is nothing outside about an ex-pollie who successfully campaigned to get the pension rules changed for those that came after him but ensured he kept his own cushy pension.

That's bullshit. And this is what I was talking about a page or so ago, there's no need to re-write history just because he's an asshole now.

He didn't personally organise it to 'make sure he kept his own pension'. He didn't do anything except pressure Howard on the policy, he was not in government. And really, for better or worse, it would never have passed unless the politicians currently in parliament at that time didn't have their situation grandfathered, so I can't even fault Howard on the policy.

 

[Elaugaufein]

That's bullshit. And this is what I was talking about a page or so ago, there's no need to re-write history just because he's an asshole now.

He didn't personally organise it to 'make sure he kept his own pension'. He didn't do anything except pressure Howard on the policy, he was not in government. And really, for better or worse, it would never have passed unless the politicians currently in parliament at that time didn't have their situation grandfathered, so I can't even fault Howard on the policy.

I mean there is something incredibly sketchy about keeping benefits for yourself that you're removing from others, just on principle. I mean either the benefits are acceptable or they aren't, if they are a bad enough that no one else gets to have them , then it seems like you're position is somewhat compromised if you keep them. It's nothing unusual in politics but its also not something that I think should be given a pass.

 

[D.Lo]

I mean there is something incredibly sketchy about keeping benefits for yourself that you're removing from others, just on principle. I mean either the benefits are acceptable or they aren't, if they are a bad enough that no one else gets to have them , then it seems like you're position is somewhat compromised if you keep them. It's nothing unusual in politics but its also not something that I think should be given a pass.

Agree, most politician pay stuff is fucking stupid. But the grandfathering of the change is not something you can pin on Latham in particular. It was he could possibly have hoped to achieve. It's ludicrous to single out the person who got something done for not having done more than was possible. Blame everyone in parliament in 2004 equally for not going further.

 

[Arksy]

The US has it right, changes to salary and other benefits only take effect after the next election.

 

[danm999]

The US has it right, changes to salary and other benefits only take effect after the next election.

Probably less of an issue for members of Congress since they have like a 90% reelection rate.

I wonder what it is for MPs.

 

[D.Lo]

America also has a rich lobbying industry any former MP can roll right into.

Which we're moving toward of course, saw this nice Betoota about Mike Baird today:

http://www.betootaadvocate.com/unca...rs-completely-resolved-one-month-nab-payroll/

 

[bomma_man]

America also has a rich lobbying industry any former MP can roll right into.

Which we're moving toward of course, saw this nice Betoota about Mike Baird today:

http://www.betootaadvocate.com/unca...rs-completely-resolved-one-month-nab-payroll/

The betoota is a poor man's Onion but this is pretty sharp.

 

[Elaugaufein]

http://www.theshovel.com.au/2017/04/07/dutton-i-have-what-it-takes-to-one-day-get-dumped-as-pm/

Its the Scott Morrison line at the end that really sells it.

 

[bobnowhere]

3 NSW bi-elections today, should be interesting. North Shore is probably the one to watch, a serial liar up against popular indies in a seat that has gone to indies before. Manly should be a win to the libs but with a greatly reduced minority. Labor aren't running in those two but the 3rd is a very marginal Labor seat but they should shit it in.

17.8% swing against the libs in North Shore, firmly in trouble town, need 21% to lose it.

22.3% swing against the Libs in Manly! 0.o Big trouble.

Decent swing to Labor in Gosford, easy win.

The spread of other votes in the two Sydney seats will probably hurt the Greens or Indies chances but it looks like both will be very close.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Looks like the Liberals will make it in Manly / North Shore largely due to OPV, the split between the Greens and Indy is large enough that the "transfer" cost of exhausted votes will keep that Lib safe. Unless the Indy candidates are super appealing to the Greens for some reason or they really hate the Libs atm. Neither of which seem to be the case.

 

[bobnowhere]

Yeah, you'd want one of the Indies or the green candidate to be significantly out polling the the other to minimize leakage. North Shore is very close to going below 40% primary, that is big trouble time as apart from the CDP, none of the rest are friendly.

 

[bomma_man]

Our atourney General and justice minister, Vanessa Goodwin, has terminal brain cancer. From a purely dispassionate political point of view she was a great Liberal, heavily supportive of restorative justice. My thoughts, and I hope this thread's thoughts, are with her and her family.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Our atourney General and justice minister, Vanessa Goodwin, has terminal brain cancer. From a purely dispassionate political point of view she was a great Liberal, heavily supportive of restorative justice. My thoughts, and I hope this thread's thoughts, are with her and her family.

I have difficulty imagining a person so horrible I wouldn't be sympathetic towards for a (terminal) cancer diagnosis. It's an awful way to go.

 

[mjontrix]

Libs retain both seats in blue-ribbons - albeit with massive swings against them.

That means they would definitely lose the State election. The upside though is that the Greens and Independents would see massive gains throughout the state - I'm hoping for some sort of minority state government.

The corrupt NSW Labor has got to be completely annihilated and I hope the Greens figure that they can pull it off and become the opposition. I don't think they have a strong public figure in the state to pull off a win - minority at best.

 

[D.Lo]

That means they would definitely lose the State election. The upside though is that the Greens and Independents would see massive gains throughout the state - I'm hoping for some sort of minority state government.

The corrupt NSW Labor has got to be completely annihilated and I hope the Greens figure that they can pull it off and become the opposition. I don't think they have a strong public figure in the state to pull off a win - minority at best.

NSW greens are unfortunately unimpressive as well. Lee Fucking Rhiannon, who will turn up at any protest to bark incoherently, has just been around too long. Though overall at least they're not corrupt like Laberal. NSW is cursed.

 

[Quasar]

John Clarke passed away. A sad day.

 

[Candescence]

Morrison basically admitted that the budget won't do anything meaningful to tackle housing affordability because he's terrified that any action will burst the housing bubble.

That fool doesn't realize that the bubble is going to burst eventually, the best course of action is to deflate it as much as possible to minimize damage to the economy. But God forbid that anyone pisses off the baby boomers.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Morrison basically admitted that the budget won't do anything meaningful to tackle housing affordability because he's terrified that any action will burst the housing bubble.

That fool doesn't realize that the bubble is going to burst eventually, the best course of action is to deflate it as much as possible to minimize damage to the economy. But God forbid that anyone pisses off the baby boomers.

The bubble is bad enough that even deflating it might lead to a serious downturn. People borrowed to negatively geared , forcing housing prices down both devalues their collateral and decreases rental price which means they might be unable to pay, it gets even worse of the reduction in the housing bubble leads to an interest rate increase when suddenly people who overexposed themselves to negative gear can no longer afford their repayments and a substantial portion of the market implodes crashing values and triggering a new wave.

The market is pretty good at making sure you can't do anything about a market that's obviously creating problems. Ain't "Free Markets" glorious ?

 

[bobnowhere]

Politically he's in a very difficult situation, if he goes hard on the CGT reduction or Negetive Gearing all the Howard battlers will jump ship to whomever promises not to touch it, Bernadi's Mob or PHON. Scotty and Ray Hadley have broken up as well, Hadley accused him of lying! It's big trouble when you lose right-wing-angry-ranty-man radio.

Bernardi has his first recruit as well, Kiralee Smith the Anti-Halal Reclaim Australia looney.

 

[D.Lo]

God forbid that anyone pisses off the baby boomers.

This might as well be every election slogan for 20 years now.

 

[Candescence]

The bubble is bad enough that even deflating it might lead to a serious downturn. People borrowed to negatively geared , forcing housing prices down both devalues their collateral and decreases rental price which means they might be unable to pay, it gets even worse of the reduction in the housing bubble leads to an interest rate increase when suddenly people who overexposed themselves to negative gear can no longer afford their repayments and a substantial portion of the market implodes crashing values and triggering a new wave.

The market is pretty good at making sure you can't do anything about a market that's obviously creating problems. Ain't "Free Markets" glorious ?

Politically he's in a very difficult situation, if he goes hard on the CGT reduction or Negetive Gearing all the Howard battlers will jump ship to whomever promises not to touch it, Bernadi's Mob or PHON. Scotty and Ray Hadley have broken up as well, Hadley accused him of lying! It's big trouble when you lose right-wing-angry-ranty-man radio.

Bernardi has his first recruit as well, Kiralee Smith the Anti-Halal Reclaim Australia looney.

The problem is, Labor have discovered that killing negative gearing and the CST discount is no longer political suicide regardless of how loudly the property lobby shrieks. They almost won an election with those policies against a Turnbull whose shine still hadn't quite worn off. And those are amongst the few policies that'll actually be effective, everything else the Libs have desperately been trying to look at won't be nearly as effective. And the whole issue is so red-hot and visible that doing nothing is also politically insane.

A true political visionary would be able to explain that a bubble deflation or even a housing market crash, as sucky as it might be in the short term, is a small price to pay for allow people to actually have fucking houses to live in, and much healthier for the economy over the long term due to much lower private debt, and that housing shouldn't nearly be as big an investment market as it is now, because dwellings are for people to fucking live in, not park your damn cash. But, of course, Turnbull isn't that.

Mind you, the one other big thing the government could do is tax the shit out of unused dwellings, since there a ton of houses and apartments that simply aren't being rented out, a good chunk of them by the Chinese who think letting in tenants will drive down the value. Morrison has indicated he might be pursing something like that, but how far he'll go is another matter.

 

[danm999]

They'll put in some pissant measures in the budget and declare job done on housing. When people point out it's not fixed they'll point to the pissant measures and then say something about how Labor are blah blah blah.

Any changes to CGT or NG, besides enraging their base and being disadvantageous to their MPs personally is basically an admission Shorten had it right 12 months ago and that he read the public mood better than them.

It really was quite a risk for Labor to run on that policy and it's paid off immensely.

 

[Elaugaufein]

They'll put in some pissant measures in the budget and declare job done on housing. When people point out it's not fixed they'll point to the pissant measures and then say something about how Labor are blah blah blah.

Any changes to CGT or NG, besides enraging their base and being disadvantageous to their MPs personally is basically an admission Shorten had it right 12 months ago and that he read the public mood better than them.

It really was quite a risk for Labor to run on that policy and it's paid off immensely.

Labor actually played it very safely too, with grandfathering and keeping negative gearing for new buildings (probably a good idea to keep incentive for creation of supply even if the method is pretty questionable). It only seems daring by contrast. Now I've forgotten if I'm talking about policy or Shorten.

 

[bomma_man]

I'm not sure how they phase it out without creating a(n even more) massive run on property

 

[Elaugaufein]

I'm not sure how they phase it out without creating a(n even more) massive run on property

They'd have to limit the grandfathering period to the point at which the policy was announced to avoid a run. And it'd have to be a sharp cut too. Though that may cause a sudden drop in the market. But since negative gearing and the CG concession is artificially inflating the market , any policy that doesn't cause a drop in demand is not working by definition.

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

I'm not sure how they phase it out without creating a(n even more) massive run on property

The Labor policy of grandfathering in existing dwellings seems to be the only way to pump the breaks without creating a disaster. That's under normal circumstances though, not when the Reserve Bank is doing the accountants' equivalent of tearing their hair out and crying that the sky is about to fall.

They'd have to limit the grandfathering period to the point at which the policy was announced to avoid a run. And it'd have to be a sharp cut too. Though that may cause a sudden drop in the market. But since negative gearing and the CG concession is artificially inflating the market , any policy that doesn't cause a drop in demand is not working by definition.

This might work, although I don't think it would necessarily be feasible since you'd have to backdate the legislation and this would cause all sorts of compliance problems. You'd need announce the policy and vote on it on the same day, which is equivalent to an imperial decree. Has something like that ever happened?

 

[Elaugaufein]

The Labor policy of grandfathering in existing dwellings seems to be the only way to pump the breaks without creating a disaster. That's under normal circumstances though, not when the Reserve Bank is doing the accountants' equivalent of tearing their hair out and crying that the sky is about to fall.


This might work, although I don't think it would necessarily be feasible since you'd have to backdate the legislation and this would cause all sorts of compliance problems. You'd need announce the policy and vote on it on the same day, which is equivalent to an imperial decree. Has something like that ever happened?

Backdating stuff in the budget has certainly been proposed before, I dunno if it's ever been passed in anything like a parallel situation. You don't have to technically pass the legislation the same day for stuff like this because negative gearing and CGT both go against tax so they aren't "instant" like say backdating something as a criminal offence, you just need to contain it in the slice to prevent the rush (ie any property purchased after the previous tax assessment won't get the benefits at the next assessment).

 

[bobnowhere]

I have absolutely no idea what can be done about the widening gap between wage growth and house price growth. In reality unless there is a destructive economy wide crash it's probably too late. In an ideal world housing would never be encouraged as an investment vehicle ahead of a basic human right but that boat has sailed and the kids were probably thrown overboard.

It's clear the current government view house prices as a special protected investment, nothing can be done that might drop the price so now we have their latest brainfart of young people using their super permanently entrenching a financial disadvantage to them and further driving up prices. Plus if there is a crash, bye bye retirement! People recognise risk when investing in other markets, shares, businesses etc... but housing has to like winning the lottery.

We do need more supply and, sadly, urban infill, but too much supply will depress the market and there will be nothing to stop those that already have 10 houses buying another couple if more supply comes online.

Probably the thing most needed is a tax on empty properties, not a 1% or 2% one like the NSW government is proposing but a significant one that punishes those taking property off the market, rental or saleable, just to suck up the capital growth.

 

[D.Lo]

It's obviously a multi-facted issue and the CGT discount is IMO the #1 issue. Why the fuck you tax labour higher than investment gain is beyond my commie brain. Second is stamp duty, WTF it is not 1920 we have fucking computers now to know who owns what and tax them.

But 1.5-2% a year population growth IS an issue too. Can't just leave that point to the ONP loonies. Both neocon parties use population growth to suppress wages and inflate economic growth. Most immigrants go straight into Sydney or Melbourne. Sydney and Melbourne are the house price explosion points.

Same with foreign property investment. It's a fake economic boost, turning our basic human need of shelter into an export industry.

 

[Fredescu]

Second is stamp duty, WTF it is not 1920 we have fucking computers now to know who owns what and tax them.

I don't think removing stamp duty would cause house prices to fall. It's a cost that is already factored in by buyers. Remove it and real prices will just go up to fill the gap. It may be an inefficient tax, but I don't support removing it unless that tax revenue is regained somewhere else. Since no politician has the nuts to suggest a tax increase, unless it's a tax that only affects the poor like GST, then I would rather the state governments have the money to spend.

 

[danm999]

The politics and policy collide and close off a lot of options, especially for a party as divided as Turnbull.

You can't do anything on NG and CGT because then Labors right.

You can't do anything on immigration and foreign investment because then PHON is right.

And on top of that you've got Abbott and his circus troupe in the background agitating about his legacy and offering hot takes on super which then whichever way you fall on it also make it look like you're bowing to him or ignoring him.

Governing without a central ideology is just terrible.

 

[D.Lo]

I don't think removing stamp duty would cause house prices to fall. It's a cost that is already factored in by buyers. Remove it and real prices will just go up to fill the gap. It may be an inefficient tax, but I don't support removing it unless that tax revenue is regained somewhere else. Since no politician has the nuts to suggest a tax increase, unless it's a tax that only affects the poor like GST, then I would rather the state governments have the money to spend.

It needs to be replaced by yearly land tax. Stamp duty based on value of a property at the time of sale is ludicrous. It definitely prevents oldies from moving, why move when the stamp duty hit takes away a chunk of the cash you get by downsizing?

Obviously needs to be phased in etc etc, but the NSW gov has been drunk on the stamp duty bonanza to not happening.

 

[Fredescu]

It needs to be replaced by yearly land tax.

I agree, but a land tax is too good an idea to ever happen. There is already a "No Land Tax" party in NSW before anyone has even seriously tabled the idea.

 

[D.Lo]

I agree, but a land tax is too good an idea to ever happen. There is already a "No Land Tax" party in NSW before anyone has even seriously tabled the idea.

Yeah, totally understand the political reality. Doesn't stop it being ludicrous. I mean it literally refers to a stamp, whatyearisit.jpg

 

[Fredescu]

You could sort of sneak it in by overhauling council rates. In a lot of ways, rates are a land tax already. Make them payable to the state government so they can pay for health and education. No idea if that would work but at least it doesn't have the "great big new tax" messaging problem.