• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

AusPoliGAF |OT| Boats? What Boats?

Status
Not open for further replies.

mjontrix

Member
The cynic in me says a lot of controversial domestic issues may well fly under the radar this week or two due to some (obviously) significant international events. Even though parliament isnt sitting, it seems the debate from certain topics is going to be broken up and any kind of meaningful discussion will be forgotten once the current world events run their usual media cycle course.

Natsec legislation is being discussed - basically giving the spooks freereign and preventing another snowden from showing up in Australia or for the media to talk about any leaked sensitive documents.
 
Can't wait to see what the bump is in the polls!

Well apparently I was wrong.

Getting rid of the carbon tax has led to absolutely zero gains in the polls for the government. In fact it may have gotten even worse for them with a possible further slide in polling (although it is within the margin of error)

I consider it quite ironic that Tony Abbott is now considered less trustworthy than Gillard was directly after breaking her carbon tax promise. Nevertheless it was probably to be expected after the budget reveal.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/07/21/nielsen-54-46-to-labor/

The cynic in me says a lot of controversial domestic issues may well fly under the radar this week or two due to some (obviously) significant international events. Even though parliament isn't sitting, it seems the debate from certain topics is going to be broken up and any kind of meaningful discussion will be forgotten once the current world events run their usual media cycle course.

I wouldn't be surprised. Large international disasters (and events) can be strategically utilised to mask the push through of unpopular changes or controversial actions. If I recall correctly Putin's intervention (or invasion) in to Georgia was well timed to coincide with the opening of the Beijing Olympics back in the day. Initial coverage of the conflict was minimal as the worlds media attention was elsewhere.

Disasters can also be an opportunity to increase ones popularity. Anna Blighs response to the Queensland floods for example lead to an increase in her polling. A poor response on the other hand can be quite damaging as it was to Latham in his lack of action during the Indonesian tsunami disaster.

I suspect the Government knows this to be true and is trying to make the most of this opportunity with the hard-line talk and frequent media appearances of Mr Abbott since the recent Malaysian Airlines disaster. In reality Australia's ability to apply pressure on Russia is extremely limited.
 

hidys

Member
Well apparently I was wrong.

Getting rid of the carbon tax has led to absolutely zero gains in the polls for the government. In fact it may have gotten even worse for them with a possible further slide in polling (although it is within the margin of error)

I consider it quite ironic that Tony Abbott is now considered less trustworthy than Gillard was directly after breaking her carbon tax promise. Nevertheless it was probably to be expected after the budget reveal.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/07/21/nielsen-54-46-to-labor/



I wouldn't be surprised. Large international disasters (and events) can be strategically utilised to mask the push through of unpopular changes or controversial actions. If I recall correctly Putin's intervention (or invasion) in to Georgia was well timed to coincide with the opening of the Beijing Olympics back in the day. Initial coverage of the conflict was minimal as the worlds media attention was elsewhere.

Disasters can also be an opportunity to increase ones popularity. Anna Blighs response to the Queensland floods for example lead to an increase in her polling. A poor response on the other hand can be quite damaging as it was to Latham in his lack of action during the Indonesian tsunami disaster.

I suspect the Government knows this to be true and is trying to make the most of this opportunity with the hard-line talk and frequent media appearances of Mr Abbott since the recent Malaysian Airlines disaster. In reality Australia's ability to apply pressure on Russia is extremely limited.

I'd give it a week or two. Sometimes these thing can have delayed effects.
 
Have a good trip Arksy.

I'd give it a week or two. Sometimes these thing can have delayed effects.

In this case I'm not expecting much on that front, because it's a policy that was clearly expected and going to happen (the new Senate makeup meant it was inevitable), so I'd expect it to have been factored in to the polling numbers the whole time (i.e I'd expect a drop if they'd flubbed it rather than a rise if they did it).
 

Jintor

Member
stay safe arksy, and good... uh, not sure what it is you'll be doing. Hunting? I'll say hunting.

I suspect the Government knows this to be true and is trying to make the most of this opportunity with the hard-line talk and frequent media appearances of Mr Abbott since the recent Malaysian Airlines disaster. In reality Australia's ability to apply pressure on Russia is extremely limited.

I know a government has to look tough and god knows Putin probably deserves to be held to account, but Abbott looks like a small dog yapping at the heels of a titan on the world stage
 

Yagharek

Member
Leaders of Russia, USA, China never get held to account. On the world stage, they are untouchable. Domestically, they never face consequences for their (international) war crimes or similar scale domestic abuses.
 

Dryk

Member
I can't wait for the Jakarta Post to be the go-to outlet for even more internal security matters when that anti-whistleblower legislation gets through

I know a government has to look tough and god knows Putin probably deserves to be held to account, but Abbott looks like a small dog yapping at the heels of a titan on the world stage
The Chinese media already called us out on it last week. I can never decide whether Bishop and Abbott trying to look important is more funny or embarrassing.
 
that chinese editorial was something else, lol. Translated chinese insults are always amazing

I was in China, for a conference, at the time and have the English version of the Chinese paper from that day, I can upload a copy of it when I get home if anyone wants to see it.
 

hidys

Member
Have a good trip Arksy.



In this case I'm not expecting much on that front, because it's a policy that was clearly expected and going to happen (the new Senate makeup meant it was inevitable), so I'd expect it to have been factored in to the polling numbers the whole time (i.e I'd expect a drop if they'd flubbed it rather than a rise if they did it).

I probably should have stated even though I think there might be some bump, it won't be significant/save Abbott from unpopularity. The bump will also be temporary as you say.
 

Jintor

Member
I saw a translation floating around on SA but the thing I remember most was that Australia is a nation of scoundrels and wastrel outlaws lol

I mean the paper is a party mouthpiece but the guy who wrote it or the editor or whatever is still regarded as a crazy soapbox guy so it's not that big a deal, but still
 

hidys

Member
I saw a translation floating around on SA but the thing I remember most was that Australia is a nation of scoundrels and wastrel outlaws lol

I mean the paper is a party mouthpiece but the guy who wrote it or the editor or whatever is still regarded as a crazy soapbox guy so it's not that big a deal, but still

I have to read this. It sounds amazing.
 

Yagharek

Member
Well guys. It's been a load of fun. I'll be back at the end of August to make you all angry at my existence yet again. I might be able to post in the meantime but I'm not sure I'll have the time.

I wouldn't be comfortable leaving without making at least half the people here cough up their afternoon coffee so I'll just say that I have just scored a policy position within the party. I give it about a month after I get back before being kicked out for sending memos about open primaries every 10 seconds.

Cheers!

Just to be clear this means youre at the IPA yeah?
 

It's not really a surprise, the Victorian Labor Right is about as Christian conservative as it gets in this country and the ACL has always aligned more with the Labor party than the libs.

We have 70%+ support for gay marriage, even more for euthanasia yet we are saddled with a "left" wing party dominated by it's socially conservative right faction and a right wing party now intent on snuffing out all moderate voices after getting rid of the few remaining lefty rightys. I always wonder what goes through Russell Broadbent's mind at times let alone people like Sue Boyce and Petro Georgiou.
 

Dryk

Member
So how long until the Labor Left realise that trying to change the party from within is a fool's errand and break away?
 
The fake outrage over gender reversal in the situation is even worse than her comments.

We all knew she was bogan as hell from the moment she first appeared, let's be honest.
 

bomma_man

Member
Speaking on Heart 107.3’s Kim and Dave Show this morning, Ms Lambie revealed that she hasn’t been in a relationship in 11 years but is open to love.

“They must have heaps of cash and they’ve got to have a package between their legs, let’s be honest,” Ms Lambie said. “I don’t need them to speak, they don’t even need to speak.”

these things couldn't possibly be related
 

Jintor

Member
i couldn't care less if she said she wanted to bang a refridgerator or admitted to reading those dinosaur romance novels, as long as she has good/justified political opinions and positions.

which i don't think she has? but i've not really been paying attention
 

bomma_man

Member
i couldn't care less if she said she wanted to bang a refridgerator or admitted to reading those dinosaur romance novels, as long as she has good/justified political opinions and positions.

which i don't think she has? but i've not really been paying attention

she comes across as someone that'll never compromise on anything or listen to anyone because she's so convinced in the validity of her own 'common sense' opinion. Unjustifiably adamant in everything that comes out of her mouth despite most of it being right wing folk populist nonsense (like reinstating the draft).
 

Dryk

Member
she comes across as someone that'll never compromise on anything or listen to anyone because she's so convinced in the validity of her own 'common sense' opinion. Unjustifiably adamant in everything that comes out of her mouth despite most of it being right wing folk populist nonsense (like reinstating the draft).
Well I suppose you can't fault her for being a representative senator
 

Jintor

Member
qjKzC9K.gif
 

Arksy

Member
You guys are being really unreasonable here regarding Australia being too small to lead an international pressure group. We've lost some of our own. I don't it's really reasonable to expect anyone to do any differently given the circumstances. Wars have been started for less. Pushing for a resolution and getting Russia on board was a good idea. The Yanks couldn't have done that, but we did.
 

Myansie

Member
You guys are being really unreasonable here regarding Australia being too small to lead an international pressure group. We've lost some of our own. I don't it's really reasonable to expect anyone to do any differently given the circumstances. Wars have been started for less. Pushing for a resolution and getting Russia on board was a good idea. The Yanks couldn't have done that, but we did.

I've got no criticism against the government's handling of MH17 so far. I just find it a tad ironic that the resolution was pushed using the UN Seat the Libs labelled a waste of time and money.

"It's just a two-year term that we won today at the cost of many many tens of millions of dollars and some dislocation of our ordinary diplomatic efforts," Tony Abbott to Channel Nine on the UN Seat.

From http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-19/australia-wins-seat-on-un-security-council/4321946

I presume it will be considered a bi partisan approved seat going forward.
 

Dryk

Member
You guys are being really unreasonable here regarding Australia being too small to lead an international pressure group.
No I think we're far too small to tell countries like China and Russia what to do. But leading an international group is definitely something we're a lot better at.
 

Shaneus

Member
You guys are being really unreasonable here regarding Australia being too small to lead an international pressure group. We've lost some of our own. I don't it's really reasonable to expect anyone to do any differently given the circumstances. Wars have been started for less. Pushing for a resolution and getting Russia on board was a good idea. The Yanks couldn't have done that, but we did.
On MH17: "Thank goodness Australia is taking the lead in putting pressure on Russia, especially for such a small country."
On pollution: "Cutting pollution isn't going to do shit, just look at how small our population is compared to China! Can't have any influence on any other countries whatsoever. Might as well pollute as much as we like."

Not pointing you out specifically Arksy, but I can imagine there are other less open-minded folk who hold those two very extreme values.
 
I'd give it a week or two. Sometimes these thing can have delayed effects.

I suspect any bump in a week or two will be related to the handling of the Malaysian Airlines disaster since that is what is dominating the airwaves rather than the successful repeal of the Carbon Tax.

Thus this poll is the only one which is primarily influenced by the tax repeal alone (despite some data being gathered initially after the downed plane made headlines)

The fake outrage over gender reversal in the situation is even worse than her comments.

We all knew she was bogan as hell from the moment she first appeared, let's be honest.

Indeed. Her comments actually help cement her character in the political scene in the publics mind and they weren't racist, sexist, bigoted etc. It's a win for her.

Ask who the other PUP senators are to someone off the street and they'd probably draw a blank.

You guys are being really unreasonable here regarding Australia being too small to lead an international pressure group. We've lost some of our own. I don't it's really reasonable to expect anyone to do any differently given the circumstances. Wars have been started for less. Pushing for a resolution and getting Russia on board was a good idea. The Yanks couldn't have done that, but we did.

I'm reminded of an off hand comment Putin made regarding Australia a few years ago. It was essentially that he knew we existed somewhere on the planet but our existence was of no relevance or importance to him. Now compare that with some of the headlines (like what is quoted by Jintor from the Tele) and news stories recently and we can see how hyperbolic they actually are. Did our PMs phone call really intimidate Putin? I'm doubtful.

That's not to say Australia cannot successfully play a part in an international pressure group. In fact Australia can be very successful in mediation and collaborative actions as our geography isolates us from neighbourhood politics and conflicts other regions face. It is also true pushing for a resolution may be something the Yanks couldn't have done and was a good idea. But at the same time negotiating the retrieval of the black boxes from the separatists is not something we could have done. Our PMs initial strong accusatory comments basically eliminated that compared with the Malaysian PMs softly softly approach.

In the end I am sceptical that the resolution and international pressure will have any substantial influence on Russia or the separatists. This seems visible from the toned down language being used by the Government in recent times being in line with the de-escalated comments coming from the US.
 

hidys

Member
At least Bill Shorten has a sane position in regards to equal marriage. Though I do imagine his speech will be rather shitty.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom