My prediction is that they'll lose the next election, but they'll gain some pretty solid ground, giving them a much bigger base of talent to work with. With a bit of housekeeping I would say they have a good chance of winning the 2019 election.
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AusPoliGAF |OT| Boats? What Boats?
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My prediction is that they'll lose the next election, but they'll gain some pretty solid ground, giving them a much bigger base of talent to work with. With a bit of housekeeping I would say they have a good chance of winning the 2019 election.
Even if Labor get a pretty decent and popular team together, they need an elephant of a damn swing to take hold of the HoR. I don't think it will happen. The election is next year and what are the respective parties going to take to the election?
Maybe it might happen, I don't know. The swings in Vic and Qld were pretty violent. My prediction is that it won't.
Maybe it might happen, I don't know. The swings in Vic and Qld were pretty violent. My prediction is that it won't.
Peter Brent made the point in the Oz that this is the first government to his knowledge to be half way through a term and never once poll better than they did on election night.
So on the one hand, I think the electorate wanted Kevin and Julia gone a lot more than they wanted Abbott in. Libs haven't lead in the polls since those two left politics. There's no doubt this is a deeply unpopular government out of touch with polling on just about every issue. I don't think Labor need a wildly popular leader like Rudd because being only slightly more popular than Abbott is enough, and not a very difficult task.
On the other hand, Abbott is a very aggressive campaigner. I've no doubt that the only polls that count are those in the week before the election.
So on the one hand, I think the electorate wanted Kevin and Julia gone a lot more than they wanted Abbott in. Libs haven't lead in the polls since those two left politics. There's no doubt this is a deeply unpopular government out of touch with polling on just about every issue. I don't think Labor need a wildly popular leader like Rudd because being only slightly more popular than Abbott is enough, and not a very difficult task.
On the other hand, Abbott is a very aggressive campaigner. I've no doubt that the only polls that count are those in the week before the election.
Again, because of the mountain they have to climb. I don't agree with this. The coalition control 90-something of the 150 seats in the HoR. Some 25-30 seats have to fall to Labor for them to take it. I don't think slightly more popular will do. I think you'll end up getting the recent state election in SA where the libs took over 54% (a decent margin) and still came up two seats short to gain government.
shanshan310
Member
Neither am I
Although given the ridiculous pandering to Liberals of late I'm not sure I could stand labor being in power either.It's not a difficult task but Shorten has one thing against him that Abbott doesn't: voter apathy. So while he's less unpopular than Abbott, that doesn't make him more popular IMO. If you know what I mean
I could very well be wrong.
Pretty much this. Current labor is making me sick to my stomach. I'm at least glad greens is a semi-reasonable option in this country, and the last two elections has shown with greens+independents, that power wise (ability to put legislation through, ect ect) this isn't just a two party system.Neither am I
It's not a difficult task but Shorten has one thing against him that Abbott doesn't: voter apathy. So while he's less unpopular than Abbott, that doesn't make him more popular IMO. If you know what I mean
Yes, he's exactly what Abbott was in 2013. No one likes him, but he's the ticket to get rid of the unpopular incumbents. He doesn't have Rudd like popularity, but as he's not unseating a popular PM, he doesn't need it.
He does need to be able to cut through during a campaign, and I doubt he can. But if this from Abbotts speech to the Liberal party council is any indication, he might not need that either.
I'm not saying I think he'll win, it would probably be unlikely, just that I find those particular arguments unconvincing.
His use of language with regards to IS shows he wants nothing less than maximum fear and maximum negativity at all times.
I don't know if you can pull off that speech IRL. If you say it with the wrong tone, it could come off as...very Paternalistic/Orwellian. And Tony Abbott is exactly the sort of person who would fuck something like that up. Whoever had the idea to gag him during the last election was the brightest member of their press team.
can't really see the libs being re elected at the next election, leader popularity (or lack thereof) has never mattered historically and i can't see it starting to this time
if enough right wing reactionaries pull out then maybe qanda will be worth watching
"If you own a fuckload of properties and claim living away from home by renting a house in your wife's name, we're for you".
So "we're for you" is their new three word slogan? Ugh.
Yup.
I'm not sure what I'd rather have more... Abbott out but a government in that's not all that different by comparison, or Abbott in for a second term, Shorten out and a solid leader for the Labor party. Let there be no doubt, if Shorten manages to lose the next election, he'll be out on his arse VERY fucking quickly. Maybe then Labor will grow some policies (and gumption) of their own.
I mean where the next Federal election gets interesting for me is the Senate.
Assuming that the Coalition doesn't call a double dissolution, the half of the Senate that is up for re-election is the one that was put in back in 2010 where the Coalition took almost 20 Senate seats. Given they only hold 33 seats at the moment, that means that the majority of their Senators are up for review, but significant portions of the so called "feral" Senate aren't.
And since the Senate is a popular vote, you don't actually need a big swing to make significant changes like you do in the House.
Assuming that the Coalition doesn't call a double dissolution, the half of the Senate that is up for re-election is the one that was put in back in 2010 where the Coalition took almost 20 Senate seats. Given they only hold 33 seats at the moment, that means that the majority of their Senators are up for review, but significant portions of the so called "feral" Senate aren't.
And since the Senate is a popular vote, you don't actually need a big swing to make significant changes like you do in the House.
My prediction for the next election is that Labor wins the TPP but loses government.
I base this on the fact that I think there will be big swings in SA and VIC bit this will lead to minimal seat gains as there are very few marginal seats in either sate as Labor already holds most of them in VIC and SA has very few to begin with.
Labor really needs to secure big swings in NSW and Queensland in order to win this election and while I think Labor will become competitive in both of those states and win a number of seats I don't think they'll be able to get a majority.
Having said that I do think more of Labor's gains will com from Queensland than any other state.
Labor really needs to lift its game in NSW.
I would encourage everyone (except Arksy obviously) to find your nearest marginal electorate and get active in some way. Come election time I plan to work hearder than ever in Corangamite (a seat I am optimistic that the Liberals will lose).
I base this on the fact that I think there will be big swings in SA and VIC bit this will lead to minimal seat gains as there are very few marginal seats in either sate as Labor already holds most of them in VIC and SA has very few to begin with.
Labor really needs to secure big swings in NSW and Queensland in order to win this election and while I think Labor will become competitive in both of those states and win a number of seats I don't think they'll be able to get a majority.
Having said that I do think more of Labor's gains will com from Queensland than any other state.
Labor really needs to lift its game in NSW.
I would encourage everyone (except Arksy obviously) to find your nearest marginal electorate and get active in some way. Come election time I plan to work hearder than ever in Corangamite (a seat I am optimistic that the Liberals will lose).
The Greens have announced their new economic policy team is Di Natale, Bandt and Whish-Wilson. Looks like they're getting serious.
Sturt: Held by Pyne at 60%
Grey: Held by the Liberals (since 1993) at 63%, covers 80% of the state
What do I do? :\
I live in the middle of Makin, so my choices are:
Sturt: Held by Pyne at 60%
Grey: Held by the Liberals (since 1993) at 63%, covers 80% of the state
What do I do? :\
i guess the libs are boycotting q&a or something
obviously the lack of right-wing people on it will stop the abc's left-wing bias
or maybe in a few months/weeks they'll be saying look, they never invite libs on, obviously they're biased
or maybe they'll just cut their funding anyway
obviously the lack of right-wing people on it will stop the abc's left-wing bias
or maybe in a few months/weeks they'll be saying look, they never invite libs on, obviously they're biased
or maybe they'll just cut their funding anyway
Between the damage done to the party brand in that state, the actually politically competent Mike Baird and the Greens on the left flank eating up Labor seats, this will be a tough road for them.
Bludgetrack has NSW as the only state the ALP isn't ahead on 2PP but the swing is big enough for them to regain a few lost seats.
Sturt because Pyne has been such a colossal fuckup it's unlikely he'll retain his seat.
There won't be any cuts, the Libs can scream and yell as much as they want about the ABC. Nothing of substance will happen, they have to get it through parliament first.
He won't lose his seat, it was made marginal during the Ruddslide but never again. His vote is guaranteed by the large amounts of Greek and Italian migrants in this electorate.
He won't lose his seat, it was made marginal during the Ruddslide but never again. His vote is guaranteed by the large amounts of Greek and Italian migrants in this electorate.
I recommend Sturt because Labor almost won that seat in 2007 and while I don't think they'll lose it you never know. I also recommend that seat because Christopher Pyne is a massive dickhead and seeing him lose would being me so much joy (even if it probably won't happen).
As usual Western Sydney is where it'll be won/loss for us. Not too much to worry about up here in Newcastle/Hunter.
Everyone's thoughts on Clive Palmer and Co's chances this time? Could see Clive circling wagons to keep his own seat instead of putting candidates everywhere.
Aarglefarg
Member
Totally not preparing for an early election.
I think Clive's done. The reasons he got into it are dead and buried (Newman), and the experience of holding together a political party can't have been an enjoyable one given all but one of his people have abandoned ship.
Clive Palmer will be humiliated this election and his party will fall apart as he'll lose his seat and the one PUP senator will likely resign from the party soon after.
should i even bother spending the brainpower to snidely refute this dumb comment or can we all agree that is either so stupid or so disingenous that the guy who made it should not hold any kind of political office
Box of Bunnies
Banned
No, see, the adults are back in charge.
Queensland
Tweet seems to be deleted.
I made the mistake of looking at his twitter account.
Don't stress though, at least it reached the mainstream media first.
I'm betting he got a call from someone telling him to STFU. The govt really doesn't want to talk about that issue.
This is going to be pretty difficult with some coalition members preparing to join with Labor MPs for a cross-party private members bill for gay marriage.
Extremely.
He paints a bleak picture...which I unfortunately believe to be a pretty accurate prediction of our future. Australia is heading into a very dark place.
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