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AusPoliGAF |OT| Boats? What Boats?

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danm999

Member
Sure but in that case its still Person Y that should be liable (Person Z merely reprinted their remarks).

Unless there's some weird edge case where Person Z republishes without Person Ys permission or in conspiracy with Person Y but that's why we have courts in the first place.

Depends on whether the defense of innocent dissemination applies. Usually if you're not the first person to publish it, or if it was reasonable for you not to know the thing was defamatory, you're ok.
 

Shaneus

Member
'Policy paralysis': Tony Abbott's government the slowest for nearly five decades

Are we surprised?
1440373829281.jpg
 
A

A More Normal Bird

Unconfirmed Member
In b4 Arksy says this makes it the best government ever.
 

bomma_man

Member
I mean, if their policies were in any way popular they could make a good obstructionist narrative out of it a la the current US congress. but they aren't so they can't.
 

danm999

Member
I mean, if their policies were in any way popular they could make a good obstructionist narrative out of it a la the current US congress. but they aren't so they can't.

It really is very strange. By and large nobody on the frontbench appears to have any ability to negotiate much of anything. I always thought it was strange Tony Abbott didn't become Prime Minister in 2010 given all he had to do was win over 2/3 rural MPs whose electorates were already more disposed to the Coalition than Labor, and that he simply couldn't was a very ominous portent of things to come.

Putting aside what I think of the policy, a lot of things the government want to do seem to have been designed with no contingency in place in case everybody didn't line up behind it. University reforms are a good example.

The government and Pyne talked about it for about 12 months. They brought forth the Bill. They had to at least suspect the possibility there would be opposition from the crossbenchers and Labor and the Greens and the result seems to have been a take it or leave it position which the Senate simply did not take.

Shit, they nearly fucked up the repeal of the carbon and mining taxes when they only had to secure the support of the countries largest fucking mining magnate.
 

r1chard

Member
So, the numbers say that this is the least effective government for 60 years.

Too bad we can't get numbers for how ineffective the damn opposition has been.


(although, I guess we could say that even though Abbott hasn't passed many bills, the opposition has run lock-step with all/most of them...)
 

Quasar

Member
What a surprise, Joe pushing for more tax cuts. And so yet more pressure for a higher GST can be brought forward. Well played Joe.

And amusing given Hewsons recent piece about how Howards wasted tax cuts would have totally eliminated the deficit.
 

danm999

Member
What a surprise, Joe pushing for more tax cuts. And so yet more pressure for a higher GST can be brought forward. Well played Joe.

And amusing given Hewsons recent piece about how Howards wasted tax cuts would have totally eliminated the deficit.

The smell of political desperation hangs heavy.
 

Yrael

Member
Fuck me, those comments o_O

I thought my brain's capacity to process abject stupidity about this topic had already reached its monthly quota after reading recent comments on gay marriage in the Herald Sun (yes, I know, I'm a masochist). Christ.
 
Someone please explain to me a rational libertarian objection to same sex marriage, that also allows for state endorsed heterosexual marriage (bonus points if it still allows infertile couples to marry).
 

wonzo

Banned
i can see why bumb sniffing didnt bother with last nights 4corners when it opened with abetz, heydon, and the intellectual deadweight marn. seems better after that tho

e: kathy jackson lmfao
 
In other news, the two Progressive parties have merged under the banner of the party that's actually registered. Apparently both parties decided that they had so much in common that two parties was entirely unnecessary. People on Twitter are already joking that they can't make "Progressives' front of Judea" jokes anymore, even though the non-registered party was practically dead anyway.

Though apparently Tim Jones has been stirring up trouble behind the scenes and on Twitter, he's been ranting and raving that a couple of upstarts have 'hijacked' the party away from his original vision, and he's basically on long-term probation for verbal abuse. Granted, he always did seem like something of a nutter to begin with, so nothing much of value was lost.
 

danm999

Member
Even Newspoll has Shorten ahead as PPM now in what cannot be very comforting to the government.

I suppose Four Corners may take the wind out of his sails a bit but it all seemed like old information repackaged to me so I dunno.

Canning really does seem more and more like it will decide who the next PM is.
 

Fredescu

Member
Canning really does seem more and more like it will decide who the next PM is.

I've read that by-elections tend to be poor indicators for a coming general election. I think a loss at Canning would be it for Tony, but that will probably be ultimately a good thing for the election chances of the Libs. If Morrison has a good honeymoon period in the polls, he has a DD trigger up his sleeve that he can use to get the timing right to ride that wave.
 

danm999

Member
I've read that by-elections tend to be poor indicators for a coming general election. I think a loss at Canning would be it for Tony, but that will probably be ultimately a good thing for the election chances of the Libs. If Morrison has a good honeymoon period in the polls, he has a DD trigger up his sleeve that he can use to get the timing right to ride that wave.

Yep I'm guessing that's the conversation going on behind closed doors.

If they pull through at Canning they'll likely stay the course.
 

hidys

Member
Even Newspoll has Shorten ahead as PPM now in what cannot be very comforting to the government.

I suppose Four Corners may take the wind out of his sails a bit but it all seemed like old information repackaged to me so I dunno.

Canning really does seem more and more like it will decide who the next PM is.

David Marr mini bio will likely do more damage than the 4 corners thing since he will likely uncover new information.
 

Shaneus

Member
Even Newspoll has Shorten ahead as PPM now in what cannot be very comforting to the government.

I suppose Four Corners may take the wind out of his sails a bit but it all seemed like old information repackaged to me so I dunno.

Canning really does seem more and more like it will decide who the next PM is.
I really wish Shorten wasn't head of Labor right now. There's nothing about him that strikes me as leadership material, or inspiring or anything. Plibersek or Wong would be much better options IMO, although obviously they'll appeal far less to the swinging right.
 

danm999

Member
David Marr mini bio will likely do more damage than the 4 corners thing since he will likely uncover new information.

I would think so.

And after that bio he did on Abbott it's much harder to claim he's partisan to one side.

I really wish Shorten wasn't head of Labor right now. There's nothing about him that strikes me as leadership material, or inspiring or anything. Plibersek or Wong would be much better options IMO, although obviously they'll appeal far less to the swinging right.

I continually imagine how things would have gone in a world where Albo had won the leadership and wasn't overruled by the Union caucus.
 

Shaneus

Member
I continually imagine how things would have gone in a world where Albo had won the leadership and wasn't overruled by the Union caucus.
:(

Albo would've been great, a solid Hawke-esque head of state I think. Australia really needs someone we can get behind, and we honestly haven't had that since... um... shit, Hawke I think. Everyone since has been weasely and somewhat shameful (with the exception I'd say of Gillard, but she wasn't incredibly strong).
 

danm999

Member
Morrison feels like he'd be Abbott 2.0 so while I can see the appeal for the party right it seems like it would cement the problems with their brand.
 

Fredescu

Member
In terms of ideology he'd be Abbott 2.0 no doubt, but Abbott has more problems that. They need someone with the ability to negotiate policy positions that aren't going to please everyone all of the time, especially their own friends, and the ability to negotiate the bills that come from those policy through the senate. I have no idea if Morrison would be better at this than Abbott, but tbh it's hard to imagine worse.
 

danm999

Member
Whatever else happens Labor/Greens will very likely control the next Senate so it'd be a tough job no matter who got it on the Coalition's side.

Morrison is kind of an unknown in that sense we've never really seen him have to negotiate much; his defining Ministerial position at Immigration and Citizenship he didn't have to negotiate or even really disclose what he was doing so I dunno.

He's been Minister of Social Services for (effectively) the past six months or so but it's been especially chaotic so there really hasn't been much moving or shaking there either.
 

Yagharek

Member
In terms of ideology he'd be Abbott 2.0 no doubt, but Abbott has more problems that. They need someone with the ability to negotiate policy positions that aren't going to please everyone all of the time, especially their own friends, and the ability to negotiate the bills that come from those policy through the senate. I have no idea if Morrison would be better at this than Abbott, but tbh it's hard to imagine worse.

Barnaby Joyce. Christopher Pyne. Corey Bernadi. Bronwyn Bishop. Mal Brough.
 

Fredescu

Member
Barnaby Joyce. Christopher Pyne. Corey Bernadi. Bronwyn Bishop. Mal Brough.

Joyce and Pyne would be better. I think Pyne would be the best of those. He's smart and a good communicator, made to look worse by having to defend Abbott over and over again. Bishop would be worse without a doubt, that's a good point. Kevin Andrews too possibly.


Whatever else happens Labor/Greens will very likely control the next Senate so it'd be a tough job no matter who got it on the Coalition's side.

Is that likely? I haven't really done the numbers, but Labor and Greens weren't that strong in the last election, and that half will be one the that is retained. The half that will be up for re election will be from the hung parliament election. If Tony stays in, Labor would realistically only be slightly better than 2010, giving them not much advantage in the senate. In the scenario that a new leader takes them to a DD on the back of some honeymoon polls, I think the senate makeup would represent those polls as much as the house of reps, and with no senate reform that means a bunch of microparties again and a potentially slightly stronger Liberal position. So without putting enough though into it, I reckon Lib+Micro is more likely.
 

danm999

Member
Is that likely? I haven't really done the numbers, but Labor and Greens weren't that strong in the last election, and that half will be one the that is retained. The half that will be up for re election will be from the hung parliament election. If Tony stays in, Labor would realistically only be slightly better than 2010, giving them not much advantage in the senate. In the scenario that a new leader takes them to a DD on the back of some honeymoon polls, I think the senate makeup would represent those polls as much as the house of reps, and with no senate reform that means a bunch of microparties again and a potentially slightly stronger Liberal position. So without putting enough though into it, I reckon Lib+Micro is more likely.

I say that because I'm guessing about half of the 18 Coalition seats from 2010 are going to be pretty vulnerable, since half of them are from Victoria, Queensland and South Australia where Labor is basically running away with the 2PP vote (and the Green primary vote isn't too shabby either).

It's difficult for me to see Labor or the Greens going backwards in those states (without driving down to individual candidates appeal). The only place there might be a reversal is in NSW I guess. But the Coalition already controls half of those Senate seats anyway, which is why I come back to not seeing where they can do better given 2PP polling.

It's a shame there isn't more Senate polling data, given how important it is, but all I can basically do at this point is look at which seats in which states are up for re-election, look at the state level polling and make a guess.

If there's a DD all bets are off.
 

Fredescu

Member
I'm guessing about half of the 18 Coalition seats from 2010 are going to be pretty vulnerable, since half of them are from Victoria, Queensland and South Australia where Labor is basically running away with the 2PP vote.

Fair point, the kind of poll reversal I'm imagining seems fairly unlikely in those states.
 

Dryk

Member
They're just adding fuel to the fire by settling it publicly

EDIT: I looked at the Twitter feeds for #AbbottLovesAnal and #analgate. I giggled once or twice so I'm going to have to go give myself a stern talking to
 

r1chard

Member
There's no way that those tweets are sent to air without moderation, and whoever does that moderation is in a shitload of trouble, rightfully so.
 

Dryk

Member
There's no way that those tweets are sent to air without moderation, and whoever does that moderation is in a shitload of trouble, rightfully so.
I did see one tweet pointing out that if the government didn't want dopey interns vetting the Q&A tweets they should've funded the ABC properly :p
 
Crikey had an article about this, there's 2 layers of review before tweets go to air (there's an automatic process, interns and then a final decision maker). I imagine this is what happened when people are focusing primarily on the tweet content rather than who sent it (the automated picked is also supposed to remove anything obscene so I guess it doesn't scan names either XD).
 
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