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AusPoliGAF |OT| Boats? What Boats?

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viciouskillersquirrel

Member
I was at a party yesterday and someone quoted the statistic about third of government spending going on social security and welfare before attempting to launch into a huge rant about dole bludgers. I shut it down pretty quickly by pointing out that this also includes things like pensions, family tax benefits, childcare benefits and disability payments. While they hesitated, the conversation thankfully moved on.

I mistakenly included Health in there as well (turns out it has its own section of the pie in the 2015 budget) but it still felt like having to explain to a stubborn child why taxes are necessary.

Is there anywhere I can see these payments broken down by subcategories?

Where are middle class welfare "rewards" like negative gearing payments accounted for? Or are they simply not accounted for, since it's lost revenue?
 
J

jellies_two

Member
viciouskillersquirrel said:
Where are middle class welfare "rewards" like negative gearing payments accounted for? Or are they simply not accounted for, since it's lost revenue?
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They are not accounted for.

and neither is that huge gift to the rich in australia: breaks on superannuation contributions, like shove a million dollars of your own wealth in, to earn tax free returns forever, and being able to do silly things like put entire investment properties in a self managed super fund.

It's a gift to the top 3% or whatever. Someone poor scrapes together 10 grand towards a house payment and gets slugged with tax on the interest from the bank, but someone wealthy with a lazy $1m sitting around can shove it into a vehicle, all in one go, that will grow it tax free until they retire. The point of encouraging super is so people can survive without pensions but these loop holes mainly help people, who are never going to care about pensions, dodge tax on their stock market investments, investment properties, and so on.
 
B

bobnowhere

Member
If only he was the Prime Minister and could actually do stuff.

10LFWRk.jpg
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Y

Yagharek

Member
Shaneus said:
It's surely a pisstake, isn't it? I read Di Nitale posted something on FB or Twitter about it and figured it was a really bad joke.

Really, really bad.

Next up we'll hear the best religious figure award will go to George Pell.
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Pell certainly exemplifies religious figures.
 
B

bobnowhere

Member
Arise Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce, and if that doesn't strike fear into your heart nothing will!

Andrew Robb to retire as well a day after receiving a bollocking from the mysterious "Productivity Commission', the organisation that stands above all others passing down it's judgements from upon high about signing the TPP without any outside analysis.
 
M

mjontrix

Member
Trying to get away from the TPP analysis - hoping that it gets lost in the noise.

The sad part is that it'll probably succeed whilst Robb gets a cushy consulting job.
 
C

Candescence

Member
Barnaby Joyce is now the Nationals leader, and thus also deputy leader of the government.

Hoo, boy, someone break out the popcorn. He's going to be a constant embarrassment for Turnbull.
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
Candescence said:
Barnaby Joyce is now the Nationals leader, and thus also deputy leader of the government.

Hoo, boy, someone break out the popcorn. He's going to be a constant embarrassment for Turnbull.
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Also Acting Prime Minister when Turnbull is unavailable. On the other hand Barnaby has a rock solid lock on the rural vote, where being terrified of the Chinese buying all our land and invading us is a popular pass time (even though resumption is a thing what exists and would definitively be used in the case of food shortage or invasion).
 
B

bobnowhere

Member
'To lose one cabinet minister may be considered a misfortune, to lose two, looks like carelessness' - Sir Humphrey Appleby

To lose 3, looks like a continuing internal power struggle from the butthurt hard right element in the party. Someone had been leaking all week on Robert from the government side.

Fiona Nash was pretty lucky to survive a year or two ago, but Abbott just dug in and the media and the ALP were eventually distracted by other things. Whatever you say about Abbott, he quickly made a decision to deny everything, Turnbull on the other hand, everyone knows he struggles to be decisive and that could be his downfall.
 
C

Candescence

Member
Labor has announced policy to limit negative gearing to new properties, and grandfather existing arrangements, but negative gearing will not apply to existing housing.

Okay, this is an extremely welcome policy, even if it doesn't go quite as far as it should, I think negative gearing should be phased out entirely over the next decade or so. But this policy would likely immediately deflate the housing bubble quite considerably, which is a good thing. Making housing affordable should be a higher priority than pandering to housing investors.

Though I suspect certain elements in the Coalition will use the debunked claim that reducing/removing negative gearing will increase rents. Tony loved to spout that nonsense whenever negative gearing came up in debates.
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
Candescence said:
Labor has announced policy to limit negative gearing to new properties, and grandfather existing arrangements, but negative gearing will not apply to existing housing.

Okay, this is an extremely welcome policy, even if it doesn't go quite as far as it should, I think negative gearing should be phased out entirely over the next decade or so. But this policy would likely immediately deflate the housing bubble quite considerably, which is a good thing. Making housing affordable should be a higher priority than pandering to housing investors.

Though I suspect certain elements in the Coalition will use the debunked claim that reducing/removing negative gearing will increase rents. Tony loved to spout that nonsense whenever negative gearing came up in debates.
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Keeping it for new housing is fairly clever in the short term, it encourages additional housing construction whicb increases supply. Most of that will be for the rent market of course but of you drive down rent prices then housing has to fall to remain competitive (and there'll be some slack there since investors will be less drawn to the market).

Probably a long way from the most efficient method considering it'll inevitably get grandfathered in if they remove it entirely eventually but lol optimally efficient government
 
B

bobnowhere

Member
Yagharek said:
I smell a mid year election. Maybe even a DD.
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The Greens and Xenophon are now on board for the senate voting changes, that should put it over the line.

I think the most likely is a standard election just after July 1, early August. A standard election before July 1 would not include the senate, only the house as they haven't sat for long enough.

A DD election would have to fit into the time between the next budget and July 1. I don't think they have the balls to call one before the budget and I imagine the GG would have issues with one after July 1 when a standard election could be called instead to resolve any voting blockages. At this point A DD is just a hollow threat.
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
bobnowhere said:
The Greens and Xenophon are now on board for the senate voting changes, that should put it over the line.

I think the most likely is a standard election just after July 1, early August. A standard election before July 1 would not include the senate, only the house as they haven't sat for long enough.

A DD election would have to fit into the time between the next budget and July 1. I don't think they have the balls to call one before the budget and I imagine the GG would have issues with one after July 1 when a standard election could be called instead to resolve any voting blockages. At this point A DD is just a hollow threat.
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Is there a set of defined voting changes the Greens and Xenophon are on for ? Because I know the Greens have had voting reform proposals for before but it'd be a cold day in hell before either major party agreed to them. I assume they'd both have to get their pound of flesh in return.
 
B

bobnowhere

Member
Elaugaufein said:
Is there a set of defined voting changes the Greens and Xenophon are on for ? Because I know the Greens have had voting reform proposals for before but it'd be a cold day in hell before either major party agreed to them. I assume they'd both have to get their pound of flesh in return.
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http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/feb/12/senate-voting-changes-coalition-wins-over-nick-xenophon-and-greens

I'm not entirely sure what the coalition wanted initially but the greens and NXT have negotiated optional 1-6 above the line.
 
C

Candescence

Member
Actually, it's 1-6 above the line minimum. The press has been getting the info on what the Greens demanded somewhat wrong. Basically, the Greens want preference dealing replaced with the ability for voters to actually choose their own preferences.


Also, Turnbull has announced another ministry reshuffle. While it was rather obvious that it'd be necessary after Robert's resignation and Barnaby ascending to the deputy position, it's not a good look for Turnbull.
 
B

bobnowhere

Member
Candescence said:
Actually, it's 1-6 above the line minimum. The press has been getting the info on what the Greens demanded somewhat wrong. Basically, the Greens want preference dealing replaced with the ability for voters to actually choose their own preferences.


Also, Turnbull has announced another ministry reshuffle. While it was rather obvious that it'd be necessary after Robert's resignation and Barnaby ascending to the deputy position, it's not a good look for Turnbull.
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But there's so much talent! That one is wearing thin.

So 6 minimum and as many as want after that, makes a bit more sense. Destroys ungrouped people though.
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
bobnowhere said:
But there's so much talent! That one is wearing thin.

So 6 minimum and as many as want after that, makes a bit more sense. Destroys ungrouped people though.
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I presume that they each count as an independent party for this. So you'd just number them like the others.

I'm actually pretty happy with this, its probably the best you could hope for at all realistically.

Not realistically I'd want ballot position randomized per ballot not per election. It'd negate the effects of donkey votes. Of course its probably completely infeasible I doubt mass printers have the hardware to do it dynamically and you can't randomly select between predone files because the number of combinations is prohibited 30 parties is 30! (2.65252859812 x10^32 ) possibilities (which is 10^25 times the population).
 
C

Candescence

Member
Turnbull's honeymoon is over. IPOS poll shows 2PP at 52-48, with the Coalition dropping 4 points and Labor gaining 4. Greens vote has risen to 15%, up two points.

Also, Scott Morrison is telling porkies. Not only is he claiming Labor's negative gearing plan will raise "very little revenue", he also claims that first home buyers will be overcrowded by rich investors as well... Which is literally the opposite of what would happen if Labor's NG plan is implemented. Of course, Scott is a former property council member, and the property council is fighting tool and nail to keep negative gearing the way it is.
 
D

danm999

Member
Turnbull needs to shake off the cobwebs and do something substantive. His term as PM thus far has been dominated by Ministerial dysfunction and resignation.

Even Shorten is posturing against negative gearing.
 
L

legend166

Member
I dunno if it's just the Libs or broader trend but it seems like every substantial policy announcement these days is in the budget and the rest of the year is just selling things in the budget.

Was it always like this?
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
Candescence said:
Turnbull's honeymoon is over. IPOS poll shows 2PP at 52-48, with the Coalition dropping 4 points and Labor gaining 4. Greens vote has risen to 15%, up two points.

Also, Scott Morrison is telling porkies. Not only is he claiming Labor's negative gearing plan will raise "very little revenue", he also claims that first home buyers will be overcrowded by rich investors as well... Which is literally the opposite of what would happen if Labor's NG plan is implemented. Of course, Scott is a former property council member, and the property council is fighting tool and nail to keep negative gearing the way it is.
Click to expand...

I'd be skeptical of that poll. Margin of error is usually +/- 3%. Wait and see if other polls suggest the same trend.

legend166 said:
I dunno if it's just the Libs or broader trend but it seems like every substantial policy announcement these days is in the budget and the rest of the year is just selling things in the budget.

Was it always like this?
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Good news is run on at elections or used as bribes immediately before.

Budget news depends on the state of the Budget, which has been iffy compared to the Howard years since the crisis , so the Budget is usually bad news that needs to be sold. Howard's budgets were full of middle class welfare and thus didn't need selling (the GST was an exception).

Things have always focused around those two events. Just less dramatically. Other stuff is reactive or that they'd really rather not get a lot of scrutiny.
 
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