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[bobnowhere]

A new series of Underbelly!

Even funnier, the current member for Barton, Nick Varvaris, is really only known for two things: falling asleep in Parliament in 2014 and accidentally voting with the Labor Party and having his parents write letters to the AEC to leave him alone and not redistribute his seat! No loss.

Self quote, I know!

But everyone's favourite dozy pollie is now not even going to recontest the seat against Linda Burney. Maybe he forgot to do the paperwork or maybe his parents wouldn't let him stay up late enough.

The issue I had with Credlin, it was nothing to do with a possible affair that rumor has been going around since way before Abbott's prime-ministership, it was that as an unelected official she usurped elected ones and acted as one. We the voters do have the chance to pass judgement on elected officials every three years or so and dump them if we see fit, we never had the choice with Credlin. If you want to be in the Government, run.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Self quote, I know!

But everyone's favourite dozy pollie is now not even going to recontest the seat against Linda Burney. Maybe he forgot to do the paperwork or maybe his parents wouldn't let him stay up late enough.

The issue I had with Credlin, it was nothing to do with a possible affair that rumor has been going around since way before Abbott's prime-ministership, it was that as an unelected official she usurped elected ones and acted as one. We the voters do have the chance to pass judgement on elected officials every three years or so and dump them if we see fit, we never had the choice with Credlin. If you want to be in the Government, run.

Technically for direct staffers like Credlin you can just dump the appropriate politician. Its the Department heads that are associated with Departments rather than ministers that you can't really pass judgement on.

 

[bobnowhere]

Technically for direct staffers like Credlin you can just dump the appropriate politician. Its the Department heads that are associated with Departments rather than ministers that you can't really pass judgement on.

Credlin sat in and ran cabinet, a place she had no right to be.

Tin Foil Hat Wearing, X-Files, Crazy Conspiracy time!

Sofie Mirabella on why she lost!

 

[Dead Man]

Technically for direct staffers like Credlin you can just dump the appropriate politician. Its the Department heads that are associated with Departments rather than ministers that you can't really pass judgement on.

Unless they are staffers to a politician in a very safe seat.

Tin Foil Hat Wearing, X-Files, Crazy Conspiracy time!

Sofie Mirabella on why she lost!

Meanwhile, Mirabella says, McGowan's army of door-knocking volunteers were anything but their "best selves". Social media, she says, had a "toxic ferocity". And all of this happened without scrutiny because, she says, The Border Mail and several other newspapers in the electorate were biased against her and the city press was not paying attention. "I've never had rumours in previous campaigns that my husband was going to leave me, and I hated children," she says. She accuses "the orange people", the McGowan door-knockers, of spreading these rumours.

"It is extremely unlikely that Voice for Indi was a spontaneous movement to ascertain what the people of Indi wanted," Mirabella says. "The fact that their campaign was supported by Get Up!, the trade union movement and the Labor Party, I guess, is relevant."

She remains opposed to a carbon tax and believes marriage should only be between a man and a woman. She says she has a strong relationship with a local indigenous community, the Bangerang, but she still doesn't believe the Stolen Generations existed in Victoria.

Sophie Mirabella denies any suggestion that she encouraged the AEC to investigate the women. Some Indi constituents have raised her own enrolment record in the 1990s, when she lived with a lover but registered at her parents' address in another electorate.

"At all times, of course I have been properly enrolled," she says, but will not go into details.

Still an ignorant and hateful waste of oxygen then.

 

[Elaugaufein]

So does anyone have any advice on how to find out anything about local council candidates ?

So far for my local election I've managed to successful identify the political party of 2 candidates and the probable parties of another 2. The sitting Councillors are essentially running on the same platform with some tweaks in order.

And some of the new contenders seem to be digital ghosts.

 

[i_am_ben]

Fairfax-Ipsos poll

Two party Preferred: 47% Labor 53% Coalition
Limiting negative gearing: 34% support 42% oppose
Limiting super contributions: 35% support 40% oppose
​

Well that's that I guess.

 

[bobnowhere]

Wouldn't trust a reachtel/Morgan/Ipsos poll as far as I could kick them. Labor at 31% primary, lol not likely, they were >33% when they lost the last election. Not saying Labor would win atm, they wouldn't, but it's obviously much closer than that.

So does anyone have any advice on how to find out anything about local council candidates ?

So far for my local election I've managed to successful identify the political party of 2 candidates and the probable parties of another 2. The sitting Councillors are essentially running on the same platform with some tweaks in order.

And some of the new contenders seem to be digital ghosts.

I'm kind of glad living in the ACT we only have 2 levels of government. It's hard enough keeping a track of the 17 gormless goons in the assembly at the moment and that goes up to 25 at the next election.

Interesting note, the Libs in Canberra are so far in debt they are extracting a $3k+ nomination fee from all their candidates to run. Still free for The Greens and Labor, the Greens probably don't have much overhead to pay for and the Labor party are pokie powered.

 

[Candescence]

Yeah, seems like the Ipsos poll is a pretty big outlier when both Newspoll and Essential polled consistently with 2PP being neck and neck.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Yeah, seems like the Ipsos poll is a pretty big outlier when both Newspoll and Essential polled consistently with 2PP being neck and neck.

47 / 53 is within MoE for neck and neck (and vice versa) so it's not actually awful of anything.

 

[Quasar]

http://www.theguardian.com/australi...ality-plebiscites-true-cost-estimated-at-525m

So that giant waste of money known as the Marriage Equality Plebiscite is more likely to cost $525m.

 

[Yagharek]

http://www.theguardian.com/australi...ality-plebiscites-true-cost-estimated-at-525m

So that giant waste of money known as the Marriage Equality Plebiscite is more likely to cost $525m.

The debt and defecit chicken little hockey was probably going to use the cost of it as the reason to abandon it.

 

[bobnowhere]

Strange stuff going on in WA at the moment. I had the understanding that the left is completely dominant in WA with the Bullock's Shoppie led right having almost completely collapsed. Now comes Stephen Smith from the right and outside of Parliament trying to unseat the leader from the left who is well ahead as preffered premier and line ball in 2pp.

It's a bold strategy Steve, let's see how it plays out!

 

[Yagharek]

It's thrown a pack of feral cats in amongst a solitary pigeon.

 

[Candescence]

Ricky Muir is calling the government's bluff on the double dissolution threat by forcing a debate on the ABCC bill and force the government to either commit to the threat or block the debate and look like they're not taking it seriously in the process.

 

[bobnowhere]

There is definitely some world class trolling going on in the Senate at the moment.

Muir bringing on the ABCC to get the Coalition to vote against it, David Leyonhjelm bringing on SSM to force the Greens to vote against it and Lambie running around yelling about stuff. It will be boring after the potential DD with just 2 majors, The Greens and Xenophon's lot pretending he's more than just grandstanding self interest. Though of the crossbenchers I imagine Lambie is a real threat of getting reelected, the rest are gone.

 

[Shaneus]

Ricky Muir is calling the government's bluff on the double dissolution threat by forcing a debate on the ABCC bill and force the government to either commit to the threat or block the debate and look like they're not taking it seriously in the process.

I'm guessing someone told him to do it. No way he has any idea on his own of the implications of what he's doing.

 

[Jintor]

I'm guessing someone told him to do it. No way he has any idea on his own of the implications of what he's doing.

That's selling Muir pretty short. He's consistently shown himself to be one of the few people in there with half a clue

 

[Shaneus]

That's selling Muir pretty short. He's consistently shown himself to be one of the few people in there with half a clue

Like in that 60 Minutes interview?

 

[Jintor]

Like in that 60 Minutes interview?

Why not look at his actual performance in the house instead of his just-elected I've got no clue what I'm doing bit

 

[Elaugaufein]

He went through staff very quickly at the time. Having good staff definitely helps.

Lazarus might get re-elected in Queensland too in a DD, thanks to the lower quota and his name recognition. He's also been appearing weekly on ABC Local Radio for Brisbane.

Everyone else except maybe Day is Toast.

 

[Dryk]

That's selling Muir pretty short. He's consistently shown himself to be one of the few people in there with half a clue

I was sold on him the moment he got up and started lecturing the majors on what a senator's job is supposed to be

 

[Shaneus]

Why not look at his actual performance in the house instead of his just-elected I've got no clue what I'm doing bit

Sounds too much like effort.

 

[Dryk]

It's been really difficult trying to figure out how I feel about the proposed voting reforms. I hate the changes to eligibility and removal of GVTs, but there's also a lot of progress I want to see.

My biggest fear is that this is as far as we're ever going to get. This bill is halfway to where I want to be at best and I doubt we're ever going to actually get there now.

 

[Elaugaufein]

It's been really difficult trying to figure out how I feel about the proposed voting reforms. I hate the changes to eligibility and removal of GVTs, but there's also a lot of progress I want to see.

My biggest fear is that this is as far as we're ever going to get. This bill is halfway to where I want to be at best and I doubt we're ever going to actually get there now.

What's the change to eligibility ?

I'm not at all sad about the death of GVTs.

 

[danm999]

I kind of like Ricky Muir but I also feel he has no business being in the Senate.

 

[Dryk]

GVTs are stupid, but if someone wants to defer to their party of choice I think they should still be given that option. They get an unreasonably bad rap from people who can't be bothered taking a minute out of their day to read them and then complain when they end up voting for a random party.

I kind of like Ricky Muir but I also feel he has no business being in the Senate.

I feel like he has more business being there than a lot of senators

What's the change to eligibility ?

It turns out I was just misreading a discussion about the effects of votes exhausting rather than any explicit change to requirements. I think back in the day the LNP wanted a primary vote minimum but it's since been excised.

 

[Elaugaufein]

GVTs are stupid, but if someone wants to defer to their party of choice I think they should still be given that option. They get an unreasonably bad rap from people who can't be bothered taking a minute out of their day to read them and then complain when they end up voting for a random party.


I feel like he has more business being there than a lot of senators

Its not like you can vote 1 above the line and then simply indicate your desired alterations. Your choices are Your Party , Compromise Party with better GTV (and yours still high) and numbering a table cloth with parties with deliberately misleading name (Reclaim, One Nation, etc) you've probably never heard of unless you're a wonk.

Theres also the preference whisperers who's entire purpose is to use distorted GTVs to get elected even fake parties (The Lib Dems and the Stop the Greens filed the exact same GTV last time).

 

[Dryk]

Its not like you can vote 1 above the line and then simply indicate your desired alterations. Your choices are Your Party , Compromise Party with better GTV (and yours still high) and numbering a table cloth with parties with deliberately misleading name (Reclaim, One Nation, etc) you've probably never heard of unless you're a wonk.

I mean in the context of these reforms, where preferencing >1 above-the-line is a possibility. It's also possible that I'm just salty that the stupidity of the public won out in the end. I would have like to see a world where GVTs still existed and people understood them.

The narrative is going to be fixed at "preference deals were opaque bullshit and we vanquished them" instead of the more accurate "preference deals were completely transparent bullshit we complained about because we're lazy" for all time now and it just pisses me off. I have this massive bulging nerve on my arm that represents public ignorance and complaining about GVTs that always gets touched around elections and now I'll never get justice

 

[Elaugaufein]

I mean in the context of these reforms, where preferencing >1 above-the-line is a possibility. It's also possible that I'm just salty that the stupidity of the public won out in the end. I would have like to see a world where GVTs still existed and people understood them.

The narrative is going to be fixed at "preference deals were opaque bullshit and we vanquished them" instead of the more accurate "preference deals were completely transparent bullshit we complained about because we're lazy".

I don't think I have strong feelings about GVTs with above the line OPV with some reasonable minimum. Though you'd need a third line or special symbol to indicate a GVT.

 

[Jintor]

a wonderful smackdown of safe schools talking points by some high school student

also what the fuck is even happening in the senate today? shennanigans apparently

 

[Dryk]

It's looking like my predictions of how badly the Greens want this deal to work out and how well the average Greens voter would take it were way off. This bill is going to a vote in time for an election and it looks like no amount of smear is going to stop it.

 

[Yagharek]

I like having cross bench independent senators holding the balance of power. It's a bit like jury duty and the reasonable adult test. On average you will get a competent if eclectic assortment of senators rather than lifetime party members of one of the four main parties.

I don't like the thought of lnp and greens trying to cut them out. It's almost a display of feathers and claiming the senate as their own. Fuck that.

I'm ideologically closer aligned to the greens than any other party but I believe a senate with diversity is the greatest protection we can have against either main party controlling both houses, or both main parties controlling either house and butting heads continually with no progress.

A diverse senate or lower house mandates that negotiations and compromise occur. That's what our country deserves. Give me a few Ricky muirs, a couple Tony windsors, Andrew wilkie with a bee in his bonnet and mcgowans all over the country.

I'll vote labor if the greens let this pass.

 

[bobnowhere]

Those 2% of Greens voters! Wide spread support for the plebiscite as well ahead of a Parliamentary vote.

No change in Essential 2pp either.

http://www.essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport

Other fun stuff:

Best leader of the Coalition:

1. Turbull 39%
2. Don't Know 21%
3. Someone Else 15%
4. J Bish 12%
5. Abbott 9%
6. Morrison 2%
7. Pyne 1%

Best ALP leader:

1. Don't Know 32%
2. Someone else 18%
3. Shorten 15%
4. Albo/Tanya both at 14%
5. Bowen 7%

 

[Yagharek]

a wonderful smackdown of safe schools talking points by some high school student

also what the fuck is even happening in the senate today? shennanigans apparently

Tristan is a comedy genius. Cis straight white male column writing had me in stitches.

 

[Jintor]

I do see an argument the other way. The 1-6 idea is stronger in terms of getting what voters actually want than the preference flows, I think. Preference flows aren't, of course, opaque, but they take a fair amount of time to research per party and can result in some baffling results (honestly Dryk I think you're being a bit unfair in how easy they are to read; they're utterly bizarre half the time what with party names all over the spectrum, etc).

But like Yag I'm not so hot on a mere two-or-three party system.

Though I don't know why Labor is opposing the reforms other than to try and paint some kind of hilarious Greeny-Lib conspiracy which falls apart if you even glance at it

 

[Yagharek]

I understand the logic of a 1-6 vote, but it's not exactly transparent in its intended aims now is it. Unintended consequences of an imperfect system have given politicians a framework where negotiation is mandatory. I think that's good enough.

 

[bobnowhere]

I understand the logic of a 1-6 vote, but it's not exactly transparent in its intended aims now is it. Unintended consequences of an imperfect system have given politicians a framework where negotiation is mandatory. I think that's good enough.

I'm worried we are going to a have behind the scenes campaign where people are encouraged to still only vote 1 above the line as they left in the proviso that that will still count for now. Probably one of those emails that go around. I suspect the major parties will be very happy with votes for them exhausting without passing on to other parties.

 

[Elaugaufein]

I'm worried we are going to a have behind the scenes campaign where people are encouraged to still only vote 1 above the line as they left in the proviso that that will still count for now. Probably one of those emails that go around. I suspect the major parties will be very happy with votes for them exhausting without passing on to other parties.

I'm pretty sure actually doing that will get you smacked by the AEC (encouraging people to give impripoper ballots). There'll be some doubtless but people don't usually try and game the system like that. There's vote saving btl already so if people were going to game like that they already can.

 

[Jintor]

I understand the logic of a 1-6 vote, but it's not exactly transparent in its intended aims now is it. Unintended consequences of an imperfect system have given politicians a framework where negotiation is mandatory. I think that's good enough.

It's not like it rules out minor parties getting to power, it just stops them surfing to power on a wave of weird preference deals, like Fielding or Leyonhfeld or whatever his name is, despite only having a tiny sliver of the vote.

It's good enough now because the crossbench have proven to be fiercely independent, but that seems to depend on the crossbench. Though I suppose the principle of the thing is to have independents to negotiatie with... ai yai yai...

 

[Elaugaufein]

It's not like it rules out minor parties getting to power, it just stops them surfing to power on a wave of weird preference deals, like Fielding or Leyonhfeld or whatever his name is.

Muir is probably weird preference deals 101 (his voting record has more to do with not being vetted properly since he was supposed to be a preference funnel for one of Duerry's parties than being a good representative of party platform).

The DLP guy is a mixture of good position on the paper and people who can't read the difference between Liberal and Democratic Liberal.

 

[Jintor]

and donkey votes, don't forget donkey votes

/edit oh you covered that

 

[Dryk]

The addition of party logos to the ballot is a hilariously transparent fuck you to Leyonhjelm

Though I don't know why Labor is opposing the reforms other than to try and paint some kind of hilarious Greeny-Lib conspiracy which falls apart if you even glance at it

Unfortunately it's looking as though like GVTs, the vast majority aren't even glancing at it

 

[Shaneus]

Really losing a lot of respect for some previously admired Labor members, particularly Wong, Albo (but not specifically on GVTs) and Dastyari. Wong yesterday was quite frustrating, too.

Glad the Greens are headed by someone like Di Natale though. Not that the previous leaders were bad, but he seems to be much more public-facing and dogged than Milne and Brown (to a lesser extent).

In slightly-related news, it was wonderful seeing Van Badham get basically slammed on Twitter on voting policy by a guy from the AEC who basically wrote the thing.

 

[Rubixcuba]

Really losing a lot of respect for some previously admired Labor members, particularly Wong, Albo (but not specifically on GVTs) and Dastyari. Wong yesterday was quite frustrating, too.

Glad the Greens are headed by someone like Di Natale though. Not that the previous leaders were bad, but he seems to be much more public-facing and dogged than Milne and Brown (to a lesser extent).

In slightly-related news, it was wonderful seeing Van Badham get basically slammed on Twitter on voting policy by a guy from the AEC who basically wrote the thing.

GVT's?

Failing to see what's wonderful about Van Badham being 'slammed' by Twitter trolls re her opinion on Senate voting reforms?

More importantly, the new protest laws addressing Coal Seam Gas mines in NSW are spectacular. 7 years maximum with $5,500 fine for entering site. More than owning an unregistered firearm!

 

[Arksy]

Group voting tickets.

The reason that libs and the greens support it is that they will both benefit. The alp will lose out.

 

[Shaneus]

GVT's?

Failing to see what's wonderful about Van Badham being 'slammed' by Twitter trolls re her opinion on Senate voting reforms?

Oh, it wasn't by Twitter trolls:

And it's "wonderful" in that whilst I agree with some of her opinions, she's never the type to handle getting called out on anything she writes very well. Schadenfreude in it's rawest form, I guess.

 

[Arksy]

That's gold.

 

[Jintor]

More importantly, the new protest laws addressing Coal Seam Gas mines in NSW are spectacular. 7 years maximum with $5,500 fine for entering site. More than owning an unregistered firearm!

Only just caught wind of it yesterday and they passed too

 

[bobnowhere]

Only just caught wind of it yesterday and they passed too

Crazy stuff, love to see it tested in the courts. Maybe David Pocock could be the first case! His case was dismissed at least.

 

[Arksy]

God reddit is just impossible at the moment. They may as well rename the bloody place to the Bernie Sanders campaign headquarters. I don't even dislike Sanders. I'd probably vote Hilary if I was American but the way Sanders supporters have been carrying on has been shitting me to tears. I'm guessing the Trump supporters are equally ridicuous but I haven't been innocently subjected to them yet.

Kind of off-topic I know....I like Di Natale because he evaluates policy on its merits and even though we might disagree he's at least adult enough to listen. I wish the alp and the libs had more mature operators.

But....we have to deal with Abetz, Bernadi and Chistensen. Seriously guys? Give me a break. Like it or not those views are at least in part representative of some sections of the community but god damn at least fucking articulate your point. I'd have a problem if a program was teaching Marxist social relativism.....but it fucking isn't.

//rant