-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
AusPoliGAF |OT| Boats? What Boats?
- Thread starter Bernbaum
- Start date
- Status
bobnowhere
Member
Antony Green isn't convinced.
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2016/02/would-electoral-reform-deliver-the-coalition-a-senate-majority-at-a-double-dissolution.html
So they'd have to poll over 46.2% in at least 1 state, something they have only done 8 times since 1990 and most of the time that was WA. Now this assumes they get at least 6 in all states and even barring disasters in TAS and Vic. they should be a very good show for the 6th. The wildcard is SA, a while back Green was suggesting Xenophon could take 6 senate seats, crazy high but he will take at least 1 or 2 off the Coalition and some off Labor as well.
Pollbludger report the Coalition are at 43.3% Aus. wide, I can't find state numbers but that suggests 46.2% is a long way away even in their better states. Pollbludger still has it at 51.2/48.8 so if Newspoll and Essential are closer to the truth The Coalition are a long way away from a majority in the senate and even a blocking minority is unlikely.
Bold = First preference
Red - 2pp
Elaugaufein
Member
The second number must be 2PP since it adds to 100%. That's unlikely to reflect Senate results. The first number must be first preference (which actually seems a little high might just be the incumbent advantage though).
bobnowhere
Member
I fiddled with the first post probably wasn't as clear as I would have liked, bolded is first preference, red 2pp.
But that's a good point too, people often vote differently in the Senate and House, people actually like someone to run the rule over the senate. I voted for the Bullet train party in the last senate election, I like ridiculous infrastructure!
Candescence
Member
As expected, Bob Day is challenging the new voting reforms in the High Court, arguing that the reforms could cause extensive amounts of exhausted votes and disenfranchised voters as a result. Though, if the route he's going works, it could also kill off GVTs anyway and essentially abolish voting above the line.
Elaugaufein
Member
I don't think he's expecting to win , there's literally 0 more involuntary disenfranchisement in this than there was before. He's going for the stay which would effectively prohibited a DD.
Darkly Tranquil
Banned
Turnbull is a new shade of lipstick, but the Liberal party is still a pig.
Elaugaufein
Member
Am just going to acknowledge that there's idiotic Greens supportere on Twitter who support the Senate Reform who don't actually understand it and are making dumb arguments.
No, below the line votes couldn't be swapped or traded before. (The problem with BTL was a) very few people did it because its stupidly time consuming and finicky and b) the rate of bad votes was about 30% because of the reason given in a).)
Also almost 0 micro-parties harvest preferences for the majors they were far more likely to be harvesting preferences for one of Duerry's right libertarian-ish micro-parties. The issue with preference harvesting is that it's unlikely a Left-wing micro party voter wants to elect a right-wing micro party member over Greens / ALP or vice versa except LNP which is a thing that preference harvesting could do. Hell I voted for a micro party last Federal election but if you think I wanted Family First before Labour you're out of your mind (which is why I always check GVTs before deciding who to vote for).
No, below the line votes couldn't be swapped or traded before. (The problem with BTL was a) very few people did it because its stupidly time consuming and finicky and b) the rate of bad votes was about 30% because of the reason given in a).)
Also almost 0 micro-parties harvest preferences for the majors they were far more likely to be harvesting preferences for one of Duerry's right libertarian-ish micro-parties. The issue with preference harvesting is that it's unlikely a Left-wing micro party voter wants to elect a right-wing micro party member over Greens / ALP or vice versa except LNP which is a thing that preference harvesting could do. Hell I voted for a micro party last Federal election but if you think I wanted Family First before Labour you're out of your mind (which is why I always check GVTs before deciding who to vote for).
So the Senate voting reform stuff.
I think the proposed reforms are pretty sensible but I'm admittedly fairly concerned about whether or not the cross-benches will now vote with the Coalition on the ABCC.
I would have preferred it if the new reforms had a start date of August, which would make it harder for the Coalition to call a DD.
I have admittedly changed my view on this but I'm far more terrified of the ABCC than I am concerned with removing a few dickheads from the Senate. \
As a side note I wonder if Van Badham will still be arguing with Antony Green on twitter. It still slightly pathetic that that feud is still going on.
I think the proposed reforms are pretty sensible but I'm admittedly fairly concerned about whether or not the cross-benches will now vote with the Coalition on the ABCC.
I would have preferred it if the new reforms had a start date of August, which would make it harder for the Coalition to call a DD.
I have admittedly changed my view on this but I'm far more terrified of the ABCC than I am concerned with removing a few dickheads from the Senate. \
As a side note I wonder if Van Badham will still be arguing with Antony Green on twitter. It still slightly pathetic that that feud is still going on.
It's less of a question of whether its a pig or not, and more a question of which end the lipstick has been applied to.
Elaugaufein
Member
Australian Building and Construction Commission , nominally an independent oversight body for what it says on the tin. A lot of allegations were made (by unions) that it was actually an anti-union body.
Yeah there are some obvious flaws in this person's understanding of the system. To harvest preferences from the majors you need to knock the majors out. Good fucking luck with that.
Elaugaufein
Member
No, in the case I was talking about, he thought the majors were using feeder parties for their own benefit. Which while theoretically possible is highly unlikely because a) They don't really need too b) All "major" parties (however you define that) and many of the "serious" micro-parties have exclusive membership requirements, which makes setting up feeders much more difficult and c) Doesn't even come close to being worth the hit to their reputation they'd take , if it turned out they were.
The person you're talking about is also an idiot though, unless they were talking about harvesting preferences for late slots (because votes over quota result in all votes being reweighted to (votes over quota / votes received) and transferred, it's quiet possible for knock out a low positioned major candidate and get their preferences).
Aarglefarg
Member
I just got an ABC notification that Turnbull announced plans to bring the budget closer by a week and threatens a double dissolution election on July 2nd if the ABCC bill doesn't pass.
http://m.smh.com.au/federal-politic...-ahead-of-early-election-20160320-gnmy2v.html
http://m.smh.com.au/federal-politic...-ahead-of-early-election-20160320-gnmy2v.html
bobnowhere
Member
Hard to tell, I suppose it all depends on what is more important to the Government, the ABCC or flushing the crossbenchers. Turnbull will act like it's the Bill but I suspect he wants the senate gone and it has all been a carefully crafted tactic to get rid of them. There is a certain evil political/Machiavellian genius in this to be honest!
Only Xenophon and the ex-DLP guy Madigan are up at the next half-senate election and their respective fates are clear. It's now up to the other 6, with the new voting laws they are likely gone so do they stand fast on their principals or jump ship to keep their cosy jobs to July 1 2019? Leyonhjelm has said he'll want amendments to the ABCC bill or it's a no go for him so I suppose if the Coalition enter into negotiation they are genuinely interested in the bill if not it'll be clear early on they just want a DD.
So despite their hard rhetoric I wonder if the crossbench will fold simply to keep their jobs.
The GG could reject a DD on those grounds couldn't he? So they could enter into negotiations even if they still just want a DD
This budget is going to be completely unfocused mess isn't it
It's a pretty transparent play as far as I'm concerned. The real questions are whether Turnbull and the cross-bench have the guts to risk their jobs and call each others bluffs. I'm not completely sure he wants them gone badly enough to risk losing office.
I think it's a bluff on Turnbull's part at this moment honestly.
I don't think Turnbull will much like the result after dithering around for 6 months if he pushes the ABCC as the most important thing evar and uses it as justification to call a DD.
Cause then he's left running an election campaign without any policy and hoo boy the budget better get a good reception or he might be handing both chambers of Parliament to the Opposition.
Then again he might be frustrated as fuck with his party and want to roll the dice now rather than later, who knows.
My suspicion, yes. The government is getting pulled in all directions by its two factions.
I don't think Turnbull will much like the result after dithering around for 6 months if he pushes the ABCC as the most important thing evar and uses it as justification to call a DD.
Cause then he's left running an election campaign without any policy and hoo boy the budget better get a good reception or he might be handing both chambers of Parliament to the Opposition.
Then again he might be frustrated as fuck with his party and want to roll the dice now rather than later, who knows.
My suspicion, yes. The government is getting pulled in all directions by its two factions.
bobnowhere
Member
I'm not sure to be honest, but I imagine it would have to appear to be a genuine attempt for the GG is sign off. They had to go to him to bring back the senate early and they clearly laid out a plan including the budget being brough forward.
Apparently it's super rare to go to the GG to get an extra sitting, the last time was when Witlam wanted everyone back for a visit from the queen and the time before that was when Holt went missing.
The Coalition can't possibly back out now, can they? Imagine polling starting slipping in the next month or so and the senators started getting pushy and blocked the ABCC and then they didn't go to a DD. Any political clout Turnbull had would be dust and they would be looking for a replacement before a standard election later in the year. ScoMo, JBish etc...
Overnight Newspoll went 51/49 for the government but Turnbull is now in negative approval territory. Turnbull judged Abbott's government via Newspoll when he made his stump speech so it's perfectly fine to judge his on it.
So they need 6 of 8 of the minor peeps and as of now:
Yes -> Day (He's pretty much Coalition in all but name)
Maybe -> Wang (Wants a Federal ICAC in return, not likely), Muir (??), LeyonHjelm (Deeply concerned and wants serious amendments), Xenophon (wants OH&S amendments)
No -> Lazarus, Lambie and Madigan
jellies_two
Member
People living in Sydney should take a listen to this
https://radio.abc.net.au/programitem/pgzE7J19NV?play=true
"Bridge to nowhere: The plan to give away Moore Park"
The interview with the guy from the centennial park "trust" is amazing. Their entire charter is to protect and preserve the anzac parklands - and to ensure that only an act of parliament can subtract from them - they have clearly been derelict and incompetent in their duties. The slightest light shed on this dirty whole business has them all running for cover like roaches at 3am.
https://radio.abc.net.au/programitem/pgzE7J19NV?play=true
"Bridge to nowhere: The plan to give away Moore Park"
The interview with the guy from the centennial park "trust" is amazing. Their entire charter is to protect and preserve the anzac parklands - and to ensure that only an act of parliament can subtract from them - they have clearly been derelict and incompetent in their duties. The slightest light shed on this dirty whole business has them all running for cover like roaches at 3am.
Elaugaufein
Member
I don't think I'll ever stop laughing / crying if the current bad blood between Labor and the Greens elects an extra right wing Senator.
ETA - From what I've heard Muir bas no love for the ABCC so he's likely a No.
ETA - From what I've heard Muir bas no love for the ABCC so he's likely a No.
Could still get some stuff through in a joint sitting.
Keep in mind Ricky Muir was a union rep in the CFMEU.
It does end up looking like a stunt, but so does almost all of Australian politics of the last 12 months. From every party. People are just expecting it and so form no outrage.
Very risky manoeuvre then to be completely dead in the water policy wise for almost six months (longer if you count the death throes of Abbott) and then pretend its the Senate that's the cause of all your problems.
bobnowhere
Member
It's just union bashing. They'll play ads with angry CFMEU members yelling and threatening people, probably in black and white with an ominous VO, hell they'll probably even drag out those scenes from Patricks with the kids on the picket line from the 90's again. This election was always going to be about Unions, the RC was just the first play. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if the ads start before the senate comes back, probably laundered though the Business Council or Chamber of Commerce.
Just thinking, a DD is going to be rough for the Greens. They won't make a 2nd quota in any state so they are guaranteed 6 but any others will come down to the last spot probably. Could easily lose 2-3 spots.
Aarglefarg
Member
Email from the Greens
bobnowhere
Member
Latest Morgan Poll has Labor ahead 50.5/49.5! Probably throwing darts at a dartboard blindfolded. Changed from 53/47, not buying it.
This parliament stands to end as it began. With the LNP completely misreading how the cross-bench responds to blatant threats.
Elaugaufein
Member
I'm actually seriously considering peferencing Lazarus at a reasonably high position just because the amusement value is pretty good. I'm wondering if I'm the only one with similar thoughts state adjusted.
Given how often Rick Muir voted with the government I will not give him any votes and John Madigan was DLP so I'd even vote Liberal before he got anything from me.
I'll probably just vote Labor and Green below the line, to adjust for my preference in individual Senators.
Elaugaufein
Member
Its actually interesting that for someone who defined his political identity as a centrists / everyman that Xenophon seems to vote against the government more than the ALP.
Not verified and a bit out of date but apparently: https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkRDuckett/status/703144411727687680/photo/1
Nothing seems wildly out of place there but the numbers seem a bit off overall I know Greens are at ~6% over whole term
Only counting divisions likely pushes everyone down a bit too, since a voice vote is unlikely to be sufficient without LNP backing (Labor in particular probably benefits significantly since any voice vote were they side with the LNP would pass).
Yeah that is strange. I wonder how Xenophon will handle his Senate how to votes. I doubt he'd preference either of the majors but if he puts a Just vote 1 type campaign that could fuck things up a bit in SA.
Fuck I'm actually really curious how the HTV will look during this election.
As an aside have the voting changes been properly advertised yet? Because I hope the AEC gets a reasonable budget to do that.
Can't stop reading it in Frank Underwood's voice.
bobnowhere
Member
David Leyonhjelm seems to suffering from a massive case of Hurt Feelings over the voting changes and it seems like he'll just kill the ABCC in revenge.
Darkly Tranquil
Banned
Don't you have to serve at least six years to get that juicy parliamentary pension? I think he's suffering from a potentially hurt bank balance.
Elaugaufein
Member
By my count this can't get up unless someone folds. ALP / Greens / Madigan / Muir / Lambie is a block. And that's assuming everyone else supports which is optimistic for the government, Day will but the others all seem to want amendments.
Elaugaufein
Member
I really wish we had more polling on what Lambie and Lazarus's "personal" votes are like now, Lazarus already had a reasonably high profile and Lambie's certainly built hers.
Muir too, to a lesser extent, he recovered pretty well from the early flubs but none of it got as much media coverage so it'll be interesting to see if percolated through.
Also Madigan.
Day might manage to get re-elected since FF / ACL often manage *someone* but unfortunately for him it could easily be someone from a different state but he was going to Yes anyway.
Leyonhjelm is almost certainly super doomed.
Wang's still attached to a party that's all but dead and really should consider GTFO and raising his personal profile otherwise he's gone.
Xenophon will do fine , and probably even gain, so he's got no reason to not vote against if he wishes.
Greens would almost certainly get 6, and whether or not they'd get more likely comes down to how much bad blood Senate Reform has actually caused. That probably means it's mildly in their immediate self interest to wave the ABCC bill through but that seems wildly improbable (not to mention being political suicide long term).
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked