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AusPoliGAF |OT| Boats? What Boats?

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B

Bernbaum

Member
So because this thread is nearing 20,000 posts AND an election is imminent, I'm going to make an OT for the election which will eventually be AusPoliGAF 2.0. Will wait for the election to be called.

Election thread will go in OT and not community.
 
B

Bernbaum

Member
These are all excellent ideas but the election thread will need to be named in way that makes it clear that it's for discussing the election.
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
I like a variant on Dryk's then 2016 Election - Exhausting like a Single Preference Ballot. Can swap to one of the others when it moves to Community if nothing more amusing happens.
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
Jintor said:
AusPoliGaf |OT2| Australia Votes Early This Year

---

How is our DD trigger looking anyway?
Click to expand...

Doomed right now. Even some of the crossbench who are potential ayes are in Bring it / Fuck you mode. But Arksy's right that given the stakes they may well fold in the 3 week session.

It wouldn't pass based on current information without a looming DD, there's a blocking minority (since you only need 3 crossbench + ALP + Greens for that).

So to pass no one else can switch to / come out with Nay and one of Muir / Madigan / Lambie has to fold (its hugely unlikely for obvious political reasons the ALP / Greens would).
 
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Elaugaufein

Member
Jintor said:
I wonder how the budget is going to affect all of this shennaniganry. Maybe Turnbull thinks it's a trump (hah) card.
Click to expand...

Can't see how. They've ruled out almost anything it would be smart to go to an election on for the budget. Campaigning on reducing large company tax will win over maybe 4 people who weren't going to vote Liberal anyway (and may cost more than that).
 
J

Jintor

Member
I proclaim myself baffled on why they want to sweep the deck now other than the fact that it'd be impossible to do so after May 11th or whatever

The only thing really going for them is that both Labor and the Greens seem busy bashing each other than really engaging with the government
 
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Elaugaufein

Member
Jintor said:
I proclaim myself baffled on why they want to sweep the deck now other than the fact that it'd be impossible to do so after May 11th or whatever

The only thing really going for them is that both Labor and the Greens seem busy bashing each other than really engaging with the government
Click to expand...

And obviously that wasn't part of the plan since Labor was behind pretty much exactly this reform until just before it came in. It was a beautiful bit of politics by Labor though, winning favour with the cross and sticking mud to the Greens while the legislation still went through eliminating future issues for themselves.
 
D

Dryk

Member
It's needs to have "boa" in the title again so I can keep searching for the board game thread and this one simultaneously

Fredescu said:
AusPoliGaf |Early 2016 election| - the governments term has been... Shortened
Click to expand...
I like that one

Elaugaufein said:
I like a variant on Dryk's then 2016 Election - Exhausting like a Single Preference Ballot. Can swap to one of the others when it moves to Community if nothing more amusing happens.
Click to expand...
I'm glad someone liked it
 
Y

Yrael

Member
AusPoliGAF |OT2| Votes? What Votes?

(I'm pretty sure I saw that suggestion a few months ago so I can't really take credit for it.)
 
A

Aarglefarg

Member
I like all of them. :)

The Shortened one is a bit hopeful.

Yrael said:
AusPoliGAF |OT2| Votes? What Votes?

(I'm pretty sure I saw that suggestion a few months ago so I can't really take credit for it.)
Click to expand...
I suggested this like a year ago with Turnbull's first challenge but it's easy to think up in parallel, there could have been someone else more recently (and previously). :)
 
A

Arksy

Member
AusPoliGaf |OT2| Who's the Prime Minister this week?

AusPoliGaf |OT2| Shortening the horns on the Turning Bull

AusPoliGaf |OT2| Australian Democracy is becoming as farcical as Italy's.

AusPoliGaf |OT2| Abbott as much Bull as the Shorten end of the stick.

AusPoliGaf |OT2| Fuck this, I'm moving to New Zealand
 
F

Fredescu

Member
Aarglefarg said:
Yeah but it's best read as Bill Shorten's '80s action movie one liner after he wins.
Click to expand...

Or you could see it as a comical overconfidence about a man who exudes very little of it.

But if it's definitely gonna go the other way it could be: Malcolm's gonna cook a little Shorten bread
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
danm999 said:
If we get a hung parliament like I have a suspicion we might that opens up all sorts of thread title opportunities.
Click to expand...

Hung Parliaments are pretty rare, because Reps is deliberately Majoritorian you need FPP to be within 1% of 50/50 and independents / certain minors with a chance of winning in non-partisan seats running in those seats to have a realistic shot. Judging by the Brisbane elections , Labor will not do well in Queensland , though the Greens might (somewhat unexpectedly) see Larissa returned but that almost certainly comes at Labors expense rather than LNP.

Not to mention that Independents largely lean conservative for the same reason micros do (ie the Green vacuum on the left and Labor's willingness to be very centrist on the other), they dudded Abbot because they (rightly as it turned out) perceived he wouldn't be as good for their electorates as Labor (and they had slightly more leverage there too).
 
H

hidys

Member
Elaugaufein said:
Hung Parliaments are pretty rare, because Reps is deliberately Majoritorian you need FPP to be within 1% of 50/50 and independents / certain minors with a chance of winning in non-partisan seats running in those seats to have a realistic shot. Judging by the Brisbane elections , Labor will not do well in Queensland , though the Greens might (somewhat unexpectedly) see Larissa returned but that almost certainly comes at Labors expense rather than LNP.

Not to mention that Independents largely lean conservative for the same reason micros do (ie the Green vacuum on the left and Labor's willingness to be very centrist on the other), they dudded Abbot because they (rightly as it turned out) perceived he wouldn't be as good for their electorates as Labor (and they had slightly more leverage there too).
Click to expand...

I really don't think that the Brisbane mayoral race is a fair indication of how Labor will do in a federal election. Considering no one actually gives a shit about local governments. I agree with everything else though.
 
D

danm999

Member
I just wanna make dick jokes honestly.

Also I'm feeling good about the idea of an election. Either the government kersplodes or Labor loses a pretty winnable election and they dump Shorten.
I hope.
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
hidys said:
I really don't think that the Brisbane mayoral race is a fair indication of how Labor will do in a federal election. Considering no one actually gives a shit about local governments. I agree with everything else though.
Click to expand...

Brisbane is ~half the population of Queensland and considerable more than that for the section not likely to be conservative voters. The State Labor goverent is also not popular (though not as polarizing as Newman). Theres very little to make me think Labor will do well in Queensland at an election called now.

ETA - Also BCC suggests Labor may be over polling significantly in Queensland.
 
H

hidys

Member
Elaugaufein said:
Brisbane is ~half the population of Queensland and considerable more than that for the section not likely to be conservative voters. The State Labor goverent is also not popular (though not as polarizing as Newman). Theres very little to make me think Labor will do well in Queensland at an election called now.

ETA - Also BCC suggests Labor may be over polling significantly in Queensland.
Click to expand...

Obviously Brisbane is important but what I'm saying is that a mayoral race in which the majority of people don't have an opinion of is not in itself an indicator of how they'd vote in a federal election.

I'm not even saying that Labor will do well in Queensland, though I'd be shocked if Labor didn't at least pick up a few seats there. I just don't think they'll do as badly as that.

Labor will likely lose the election and Queensland especially.

And what is BCC?
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
hidys said:
Obviously Brisbane is important but what I'm saying is that a mayoral race in which the majority of people don't have an opinion of is not in itself an indicator of how they'd vote in a federal election.

I'm not even saying that Labor will do well in Queensland, though I'd be shocked if Labor didn't at least pick up a few seats there. I just don't think they'll do as badly as that.

Labor will likely lose the election and Queensland especially.

And what is BCC?
Click to expand...

Brisbane City Council Labor overpolled by around 10% in the Mayoral.

Oh, if you mean improve from last Fed, I agree, short of events that make the voting public very sympathetic to a sitting government they pretty much never do better than the wave that sweeps them in. I'm just saying LNP will almost certainly get more than half the house and almost definitely 6 for the Senate (unless Katter recovers) with regard to Queendland.
 
B

bobnowhere

Member
hidys said:
Obviously Brisbane is important but what I'm saying is that a mayoral race in which the majority of people don't have an opinion of is not in itself an indicator of how they'd vote in a federal election.

I'm not even saying that Labor will do well in Queensland, though I'd be shocked if Labor didn't at least pick up a few seats there. I just don't think they'll do as badly as that.

Labor will likely lose the election and Queensland especially.

And what is BCC?
Click to expand...

I assume BCC is Brisbane City Council.

Clover Moore, a hard left independent is the Mayor of Sydney and Doyle a Lib is the Mayor of Melbourne. The power of incumbency and local issues/personalities are pretty strong, hell I read they are trying to make business owners votes worth twice that of a resident to force Clover out!
 
H

hidys

Member
Elaugaufein said:
Brisbane City Council Labor overpolled by around 10% in the Mayoral.

Oh, if you mean improve from last Fed, I agree, short of events that make the voting public very sympathetic to a sitting government they pretty much never do better than the wave that sweeps them in. I'm just saying LNP will almost certainly get more than half the house and almost definitely 6 for the Senate (unless Katter recovers) with regard to Queendland.
Click to expand...

Since 1990 I'm pretty sure Labor has only won QLD federally in 2007. So winning Queensland is straight up off the table even if by some great miracle they win the election.

bobnowhere said:
I assume BCC is Brisbane City Council.

Clover Moore, a hard left independent is the Mayor of Sydney and Doyle a Lib is the Mayor of Melbourne. The power of incumbency and local issues/personalities are pretty strong, hell I read they are trying to make business owners votes worth twice that of a resident to force Clover out!
Click to expand...

Yeah that is a thing in Melbourne. I don't understand how or why it happened but it makes no sense to me.

And I think it's less the power of incumbency (though there is definitely that) compared to the fact that polling in local elections is simply impossible becuase of the fact that the majority of people have no idea who their mayor is or which party they even belong to let alone who else is running and what their policies are.

This was a point by by Possum Comitatus on twitter. https://twitter.com/Pollytics?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
 
A

Arksy

Member
This would be a good chance for Labor to bring in fresh blood into their parliamentary ranks. Even if they don't win the election.

I reckon the libs will win with a 4-10 MP majority or something similar.
 
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