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AusPoliGAF |OT| Boats? What Boats?

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Shaneus

Member
reptilescorpio said:
Nice parting burn

oakburnp4pbl.png
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Is that actually him, though? I mean, it looks like it but there's no little "*" indicating it's confirmed (though I can't say I've noticed that on any politician's Twitter... not that I've looked.
 
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Fredescu

Member
Odds getting longer and longer for ALP. You can get $4.50 for an ALP win on Sporting Bet. I know it's early on in the campaign, but I'm thinking this looks like a done deal.


edit: Yep Shaneus, that's definitely him. Don't know why he doesn't get a tick.
 
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Fredescu

Member
John Birmingham spent a day with some people from Sportsbet talking about political odds: http://media.theage.com.au/national/selections/election-barometer-the-real-numbers-men-4633821.html

The interesting part is towards the end of the video where he says that even though the odds are heavily in the LNPs favour, there are far more individual votes on Labor. LNP has far more money on them though. Some "really really big" bets.


And yeah, fuck you, I'm triple posting. If you don't like it, post more.
 
V

viciouskillersquirrel

Member
There's always a whole lot of wishful thinking involved when people make bets. I remember how Intrade hugely underestimated Obama's support in the las US presidential election.

Of course, bookmakers don't necessarily base their odds on where people are betting.
 
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Fredescu

Member
viciouskillersquirrel said:
There's always a whole lot of wishful thinking involved when people make bets. I remember how Intrade hugely underestimated Obama's support in the las US presidential election.
Click to expand...

I remember Australian bookmakers having Obama as a fairly firm favourite, even though the media coverage was predicting that it would be close. Bookmakers do have the reputation for getting it right more often than opinion polling does.
 
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reptilescorpio

Member
Fredescu said:
I remember Australian bookmakers having Obama as a fairly firm favourite, even though the media coverage was predicting that it would be close. Bookmakers do have the reputation for getting it right more often than opinion polling does.
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What are the US bookmakers saying about our election?
 
W

wonzo

Banned
viciouskillersquirrel said:
There's always a whole lot of wishful thinking involved when people make bets. I remember how Intrade hugely underestimated Obama's support in the las US presidential election.

Of course, bookmakers don't necessarily base their odds on where people are betting.
Click to expand...
Yeah, the best example of this would be the last election of all things.
 
W

wonzo

Banned
viciouskillersquirrel said:
I don't remember if any big bets happened then. Care to remind me?
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IIRC, the Coalition gained some big bets in the last two days when Tony Abbott did that 48-hour stretch thing and were the favourites to win by a pretty large margain, and then the actual result was a hung parliament. lol
 
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hidys

Member
To explain the new company tax cut Hockey has stated

We are confident that the company tax cut will deliver some partially offsetting benefits to the budget bottom line over the medium term
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So now they are importing bullshit from the American Right like the Laffer hypothesis.
 
C

CrazedProfessional

Member
Pollsters are usually far better than Betting insiders.

One actually asks the people, the other does vibes. In the 2010 election, betting sites favoured the Coalition massively. It's not done deal, especially when we haven't even had a debate or two yet.
 
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Shaneus

Member
hidys said:
We have to assume Abbot meant real political parties.
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Thinking about it now, maybe he meant "minority" in terms of a party that had high numbers of non-"Fair Dinkum" Aussies in it, like dem Asian-folk and Aboriginal-types. And the gays. Don't forget the gays.
 
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Fredescu

Member
CrazedProfessional said:
Pollsters are usually far better than Betting insiders.
Click to expand...

Not sure I agree with that, unless you're referring to analysts rather than poll numbers. Not that I have any data to back up my position.

2010 was weird. By all rights it should have been won by the coalition. Two ex National party members from what would otherwise be National party seats forming government with Labor? So bizarre. You wouldn't have taken any odds on that.
 
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hidys

Member
Shaneus said:
Thinking about it now, maybe he meant "minority" in terms of a party that had high numbers of non-"Fair Dinkum" Aussies in it, like dem Asian-folk and Aboriginal-types. And the gays. Don't forget the gays.
Click to expand...

Actually on indigenous representation in the federal parliament the liberals are doing better (1 compared to none) likely after the election this will reverse since Ken Wyatt will likely loose his seat and Nova Peris in the Northern Territory will likely enter the senate.
 
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SmartBase

Member
As far as leaders go I don't want Abbott in the top job, I don't think other world leaders can understand the bogan tongue.
 
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shanshan310

Member
Mar said:
The fact that this is a real place name is hilarious to me.
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It's the most Australian sounding word I have ever heard. 'Course it's real!

Fredescu said:
Here's a copy and paste from their policies page:
<sex party>
Each one has a link with more detail. Happy to paste those if you want more detail.
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Looks like "Daylight savings in QLD" party has a new contender. If I'm stuck in this god forsaken land I might as well be able to have dinner outside without getting eaten alive by mozzies.
 
A

A More Normal Bird

Unconfirmed Member
Omi said:
Tele off to a great start again today.

BRF6JMVCIAAYlCD.jpg
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Really eager for some of that Stalinist media regulation right about now.

In other news:
Howard defends ETS support
...speaking at an Australia-Israel Chamber of Commerce lunch in Sydney on Tuesday, Mr Howard said he now supports the coalition's Direct Action policy.

"I think what's happened over the last few years ... there's more questioning of the science," he said.
"When we looked at emissions trading system ... in 2006 it was within the context of a moving of the rest of the world towards that type of arrangement."
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Pretty much every word of this is a lie.
 
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shanshan310

Member
Omi said:
Tele off to a great start again today.

BRF6JMVCIAAYlCD.jpg
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Do people actually care about who politicians have drinks with? Under no circumstances are they allowed any friendly conversations ever.
That photo of them is so low res anyway you cant even tell who it is...
 
R

roosters93

Member
shanshan310 said:
Do people actually care about who politicians have drinks with? Under no circumstances are they allowed any friendly conversations ever.
That photo of them is so low res anyway you cant even tell who it is...
Click to expand...

It's definitely newsworthy. Thomson is Hitler. And the trial's been and gone! He's guilty.
 
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