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[The Librarian]

Hiya, AusGAF. Came across this fascinating read about Australia from one of my blogs. Thought I might share.

Australia's GDP growth numbers beat expectations this week. I do not have a forecasting model for the Australian economy, but I was expecting it to beat forecasts and I expect that whatever the consensus forecast is for the next quarter Australia will beat it to. But how confident am I? Not that confident. What I will be doing is watching it closely, because the Australian econoy over the next year or so should be the crucial test case for some important propositions about the economics of recessions.

You see, even though nobody seems to care about Australia it's a fascinating economy. What's fascinating about it is that they don't have recessions anymore—it's been over 20 years since an economic contraction. In fact it's been so long since an economic contraction that Kevin Rudd's Labor Party was able to defeat the incumbents back in 2007 despite the lack of a recession, and it now looks like Rudd will lose power in the next election despite the lack of a recession. The extreme lack of recessions, in other words, seems to have recalibrated voters' expectations for economic performance.

Since apart from the recession thing, Australia seems in many ways similar to the United States—a rich, low-density, high-population-growth, English-speaking federal state with a structural trade deficit—you'd think people would be eager to learn recession-fighting lessons from Australia. In particular, the lesson I think they should learn is that if you strategically allow inflation to overshoot as your response to shocks then you don't have to have recessions....​

 

[wonzo]

^Thanks for the blog post. Good stuff.

Yet another BludgeTrack update, interesting to note that both major parties are down in their primary vote from the last election:

 

[senahorse]

The Age and SMH are Fairfax, not Roo.

To be fair, one could be mistaken about SMH lately, I have found them to be not quite as bad News LTD media but they still provide articles such as this one today:

Australia is crying out for a stable government that can be trusted to deliver what it promises. The Herald believes only the Coalition can achieve that within the limited mandate Tony Abbott will carry into office should he prevail on Saturday.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-e...y-can-trust-20130905-2t7wm.html#ixzz2e3ciTud4

edit: Interestingly the poll at the bottom of that article:

edit2: what the hell is going on here

 

[CrazedProfessional]

[quote="Bipartisan" News outlets]

[/quote]

Media Regulation should be on the table for the next Labor Government, being outgunned like this from outsider multinational mega-corporations is just kinda unfair for our puny little elections.

Rudd mentioned before considering a cap on political donations too since he's seemed to noticed the vast amount of money that the Mining Companies have given to the Opposition. One thing he should be proud of atleast is making Abbott choke for a bit and finally ban Tobacco donations so it's a nice step and I guess far better than the fucking weird Super-PAC bullshit that goes around in the United States.

 

[toddhunter]

Media Regulation should be on the table for the next Labor Government, being outgunned like this from outsider multinational mega-corporations is just kinda unfair for our puny little elections.

I still think the criticism of the newspapers is a little backwards. It isn't that Murdoch and the like made their mind up and are pushing a Liberal government onto people. I think it is more the people that still actually buy their newspapers simply want to read good things about their default choice.

I see it more as a consequence of a fast dying industry rather than anything that is of particular concern. Even if you did remove all of that rubbish I don't think it'll change votes much at all.

I'd personally love to see a ban on political mail outs. Although it is ironic to get a glossy full colour brochure from the Greens party that goes straight in the bin I think it should all be strictly opt-in. It is a huge waste.

 

[shanshan310]

Uggggggggggggggh I hate everything.

I still think the criticism of the newspapers is a little backwards. It isn't that Murdoch and the like made their mind up and are pushing a Liberal government onto people. I think it is more the people that still actually buy their newspapers simply want to read good things about their default choice.

Eeeeh, I don't think so. Especially in QLD there isn't really another option for papers, and there are a lot of people who don't really think critically about these issues. There's a lot of misinformation flying around, and unless you go online and look at other sources there's not really much correcting it.

 

[Jintor]

Boo, my local sausage sizzle is an entire suburb away.

Damn them, why don't they have the same places as State elections?

 

[jey_16]

If only the rest of the country voted like Victoria

 

[hidys]

If only the rest of the country voted like Victoria

I live in the best state!

 

[toddhunter]

Eeeeh, I don't think so. Especially in QLD there isn't really another option for papers, and there are a lot of people who don't really think critically about these issues. There's a lot of misinformation flying around, and unless you go online and look at other sources there's not really much correcting it.

Really only one proper solution

 

[CrazedProfessional]

Huh, that's the 4th pre recorded phone call from Palmer United Party this week.

 

[Gazunta]

I got a robocall on my landline phone from Tony last night which shocked the hell out of me.

Spoiler

I still have a landline phone?!

 

[PhantomZone]

Boo, my local sausage sizzle is an entire suburb away.

Damn them, why don't they have the same places as State elections?

I have 6 schools within 10 minutes of where i live that are being used as places where you can go and vote tomorrow, not one has a sausage sizzle.

 

[shanshan310]

If only the rest of the country voted like Victoria

Youse latte sipping metrosexuals wouldn't know nothing about the harsh relatives of life like the tough bred Qeeslandehs.

I have 6 schools within 10 minutes of where i live that are being used as places where you can go and vote tomorrow, not one has a sausage sizzle.

Aww man, what? That's unaustralian.

 

[HolyCheck]

I have 6 schools within 10 minutes of where i live that are being used as places where you can go and vote tomorrow, not one has a sausage sizzle.

Tony Abbott wouldn't allow this.

struth.

 

[Arozay]

When Labor loses, I'll sign up for cable internet.

 

[wonzo]

Really only one proper solution

include WA and i'm down with this

 

[Fredescu]

When Labor loses, I'll sign up for cable internet.

Then Murdoch wins.

I have cable internet too but the upload is so so shitty. I would take 100/40 NBN in a heartbeat over the 100/2 I have now.

 

[Moxx19]

Really only one proper solution

At least wait for me to move first . Oddly, enough I only know one person voting for Libs. Embarrassingly, that person is my father. The rest I know are voting for "Rudd". Unfortunately, they all still have the mindset of "Why the fuck would you vote Green? They're too small" :/

 

[Arozay]

Then Murdoch wins.

I have cable internet too but the upload is so so shitty. I would take 100/40 NBN in a heartbeat over the 100/2 I have now.

I'd also take the NBN, but the bogan vote will be in. ADSL + Phone is slightly more expensive for me than just getting cable on the same cap.

 

[Fredescu]

I'd also take the NBN, but the bogan vote will be in.

I meant that he was involved in the cable rollout. I have no idea if he gets any money from cable internet services if you don't use foxtel, but he did once upon a time.

And to be clear, it was tongue in cheek. I'm not suggesting a boycott.

 

[Dead Man]

Hiya, AusGAF. Came across this fascinating read about Australia from one of my blogs. Thought I might share.

Australia's GDP growth numbers beat expectations this week. I do not have a forecasting model for the Australian economy, but I was expecting it to beat forecasts and I expect that whatever the consensus forecast is for the next quarter Australia will beat it to. But how confident am I? Not that confident. What I will be doing is watching it closely, because the Australian econoy over the next year or so should be the crucial test case for some important propositions about the economics of recessions.

You see, even though nobody seems to care about Australia it's a fascinating economy. What's fascinating about it is that they don't have recessions anymore—it's been over 20 years since an economic contraction. In fact it's been so long since an economic contraction that Kevin Rudd's Labor Party was able to defeat the incumbents back in 2007 despite the lack of a recession, and it now looks like Rudd will lose power in the next election despite the lack of a recession. The extreme lack of recessions, in other words, seems to have recalibrated voters' expectations for economic performance.

Since apart from the recession thing, Australia seems in many ways similar to the United States—a rich, low-density, high-population-growth, English-speaking federal state with a structural trade deficit—you'd think people would be eager to learn recession-fighting lessons from Australia. In particular, the lesson I think they should learn is that if you strategically allow inflation to overshoot as your response to shocks then you don't have to have recessions....​

No good Dax, we are too stupid to be able to comprehend positive information about the economy. Thanks for the effort though.

At least wait for me to move first . Oddly, enough I only know one person voting for Libs. Embarrassingly, that person is my father. The rest I know are voting for "Rudd". Unfortunately, they all still have the mindset of "Why the fuck would you vote Green? They're too small" :/

We need much better political education, that is woeful.

 

[senahorse]

I know it's naive and silly of me, but I am cautiously optimistic about tomorrow and Labor.

Spoiler

Flash forward 32 hours and Coalition has won a clear majority and even controls the senate

Oh and by the way, if the noalition do get in the NBN is entirely fucked, apparently they don't need to pass legislation to change it to FTTN.

 

[paile]

edit2: what the hell is going on here

If you had it on ninemsn it would be 70-30 liberal.

 

[Fredescu]

I know it's naive and silly of me, but I am cautiously optimistic about tomorrow and Labor.

Just by the way, the polling is slightly worse for Labor than it was in 1996.

 

[Moxx19]

Just by the way, the polling is slightly worse for Labor than it was in 1996.

Sometimes we need a bit of blind optimism.

 

[The Librarian]

No good Dax, we are too stupid to be able to comprehend positive information about the economy. Thanks for the effort though.

I find it fascinating, if a bit scary, that because you guys haven't had a recession in a long time, your politics involve trying to make the economy seem worse than it is.

 

[jey_16]

From what I was hearing on the radio this morning, the balance of power in the senate will shift to one of the minor parties (one of the new fringe parties even?) so the libs will be able to bypass the ALP/Greens to get anything through....that's a bit worrying

 

[Rubixcuba]

From what I was hearing on the radio this morning, the balance of power in the senate will shift to one of the minor parties (one of the new fringe parties even?) so the libs will be able to bypass the ALP/Greens to get anything through....that's a bit worrying

Nothing wrong about checks and balances !

 

[hamchan]

I find it fascinating, if a bit scary, that because you guys haven't had a recession in a long time, your politics involve trying to make the economy seem worse than it is.

It's pretty amazing. We managed to avoid the full effects of the GFC under this Labor government, one of the only countries to do it really. Yet somehow the opposition has made the general populace forget this and has spun it as a bad thing too.

 

[Fredescu]

I find it fascinating, if a bit scary, that because you guys haven't had a recession in a long time, your politics involve trying to make the economy seem worse than it is.

Labor have been incredibly timid in defending their actions. It's frustrating. The funny thing is, the opposition have been constantly criticising the economics of the government, and then when their costings were released at the last minute, the end result strongly implied that they didn't need to change much and that everything is pretty much ok. Good article on the latter here if you're interested: http://www.businessspectator.com.au...tion/coalitions-chicken-feed-savings-dont-add

 

[bomma_man]

I find it fascinating, if a bit scary, that because you guys haven't had a recession in a long time, your politics involve trying to make the economy seem worse than it is.

At least it hasn't got to the point where oppositions are actively trying to sabotage it, unlike in your completely functional political system.

Although the mining tax thing wa getting there.

 

[Moxx19]

I find it fascinating, if a bit scary, that because you guys haven't had a recession in a long time, your politics involve trying to make the economy seem worse than it is.

Pretty much sums up Liberal's political strategy.

" GUYS OUR ECONOMY IS SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO BAD"
" Ok, how?"

".................um,, Carbon tax is a myth?"

They make a political point out of fixing things that aren't broken and breaking things that are already fixed,

And the sad thing is. What seems to be the majority of Australians are falling for it because hey, we gotta stop those people on boats taking AR JERBS!

 

[senahorse]

Just by the way, the polling is slightly worse for Labor than it was in 1996.

I know, I just can't handle what will probably be the horrible truth, leave me be to my blind faith

 

[Moxx19]

I know, I just can't handle what will probably be the horrible truth, leave me be to my blind faith

In all seriousness Labour are a fair chance. Polls have historically meant very little when it comes to actually winning an election.

All I know is either way I'll be drowning myself in a specially prepared bottle of liquor. Let's just hope is for the right reason.

 

[senahorse]

The fridge and bar (top of the bar fridge) are stocked for the same.

 

[Fredescu]

I don't get the blind faith thing. Doesn't that just make it harder to deal with when it happens?

Polls have historically meant very little when it comes to actually winning an election.

When you said blind faith, you weren't kidding.

 

[Moxx19]

I don't get the blind faith thing. Doesn't that just make it harder to deal with when it happens?

Maybe, but it makes the lead up much less painful to sit through.

When you said blind faith, you weren't kidding.

I dare to dream.

 

[toddhunter]

In all seriousness Labour are a fair chance. Polls have historically meant very little when it comes to actually winning an election.

All I know is either way I'll be drowning myself in a specially prepared bottle of liquor. Let's just hope is for the right reason.

Mate, it's over.

Time to start looking for positives. Whenever a party like the Liberals or Republicans are in power it can be a dark time for many folks. But at the same time remember it is a golden age for comedians and political satirists.

 

[DrSlek]

Mate, it's over.

Time to start looking for positives. Whenever a party like the Liberals or Republicans are in power it can be a dark time for many folks. But at the same time remember it is a golden age for comedians and political satirists.

Perhaps we can still save the senate?

 

[Fredescu]

Almost 20% of the electorate has already voted.

 

[Moxx19]

Mate, it's over.

Time to start looking for positives. Whenever a party like the Liberals or Republicans are in power it can be a dark time for many folks. But at the same time remember it is a golden age for comedians and political satirists.

The only positive I can really find in a time like this is the hope that while the conservatives are in power, they only do as little damage as possible to all the progress we've made over the years.

Almost 20% of the electorate has already voted.

Yeah, we're right fucked.

On the positive side, I've started working through my 5 Stages of Grief.

 

[The Librarian]

Labor have been incredibly timid in defending their actions. It's frustrating. The funny thing is, the opposition have been constantly criticising the economics of the government, and then when their costings were released at the last minute, the end result strongly implied that they didn't need to change much and that everything is pretty much ok. Good article on the latter here if you're interested: http://www.businessspectator.com.au...tion/coalitions-chicken-feed-savings-dont-add

Cutting only $6 billion? That's it? Doesn't seem like much of a budget crises if you can only cut six billion. That's not even half of NASA's budget, and NASA gets one half of one percent of our federal budget. (Should be far more, but that's another discussion).

At least it hasn't got to the point where oppositions are actively trying to sabotage it, unlike in your completely functional political system.

Although the mining tax thing wa getting there.

Haha, yeah. Yeah...

Which leads me to a question, if I may. I've been looking at the structure of your guys' government, and what strikes the most is how similar Australia's government is to the US...except that it seems more democratic. You guys have a House, but have preferential voting for single-member districts whose boundaries are determined by a nonpartisan federal board. The largest party in the House also elects the head of government. You guys have a senate, but with twelve Senators per state (instead of our two), with proportional representation instead of FPTP. More people's interests in their state get represented. Also, I don't think you guys have a filibuster of any kind (from what I can find).

So, my question is, if you could, are there any major structural changes you guys would make to your government? Eliminate the Senate? Do you guys have any problem with gridlock? Like, something passing the House but not moving along in the Senate?

 

[DrSlek]

Cutting only $6 billion? That's it? Doesn't seem like much of a budget crises if you can only cut six billion. That's not even half of NASA's budget, and NASA gets one half of one percent of our federal budget. (Should be far more, but that's another discussion).

Haha, yeah. Yeah...

Which leads me to a question, if I may. I've been looking at the structure of your guys' government, and what strikes the most is how similar Australia's government is to the US...except that it seems more democratic. You guys have a House, but have preferential voting for single-member districts whose boundaries are determined by a nonpartisan federal board. The largest party in the House also elects the head of government. You guys have a senate, but with twelve Senators per state (instead of our two), with proportional representation instead of FPTP. More people's interests in their state get represented. Also, I don't think you guys have a filibuster of any kind (from what I can find).

So, my question is, if you could, are there any major structural changes you guys would make to your government? Eliminate the Senate? Do you guys have any problem with gridlock? Like, something passing the House but not moving along in the Senate?

It's funny you should say it's similar to the US, because it's based on the Westminster system.

 

[shanshan310]

With negativity like that I have to assume most of you have just given up and are voting liberal.

 

[D.Lo]

It all comes down to this: Labor factional kings pulling down a sitting first term Prime Minister.

Rudd would have gone into the 2010 election with the simplest election winning line ever 'Whole world had a recession except for us'.

But Labor muddied themselves permanently by doing what they did. They didn't actually win the last election, it's just that the Libs were complete pricks so the hung parliament went to Labor because the indies were not complete retards.

Now Rudd was back but it was too little far, far too late. Labor look compromised and Rudd didn't have any time to actually put his stamp back on anything. So he's had to run as if it's 2010, on his actual record.

Basically, this whole situation is Bill Shorten, Gillard and co's fault. If they didn't like Rudd, they should have engineered something well after the 2010 election and with much more transparency. Instead they fucked themselves so hard the country has had to turn to a guy who should in almost any other circumstances be unelectable.

 

[Fredescu]

So, my question is, if you could, are there any major structural changes you guys would make to your government? Eliminate the Senate? Do you guys have any problem with gridlock? Like, something passing the House but not moving along in the Senate?

If you're interested, you could read up on the "constitutional crisis" of 1975: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Australian_constitutional_crisis

If a bill can't get through the senate, they have to negotiate in order to get it through. It is quite rare for a single party to have a majority in the senate, so this kind of negotiation is the norm. If the government fails to get a bill through the senate on multiple attempts they can call (or, technically, "request") a "double dissolution" election, which means that the whole senate is up for re-election as opposed to normally just half of it. We haven't had one of those since the 80s. If the Greens and Labor have a senate majority in the new senate, we may be up for one again next year, depending on how hardline Abbott wants to get about pushing his stuff through. The senate result is hard enough to predict, let alone what goes through that mans head, so we can't really say yet.

As for changes, at the very least we need to change the way senate voting works. We have a preferential voting system for the house, but for the senate we either choose one party, or have to number every single candidate, which is as high as 110 this year. If you vote for the single party, because of the weird way senate votes are counted, they choose their own preferences, which can be a little weird and not what you really want. 95% of people vote for the single party though. This needs to be improved.

One of our state governments eliminated the senate. I won't talk about state politics too much, but see what happened in Queensland since the last election, I would never want to get rid of the senate.

As far as pie in the sky changes that will never ever happen goes, I think they should abolish state governments. It's an extra layer that we don't need.

 

[toddhunter]

It all comes down to this: Labor factional kings pulling down a sitting first term Prime Minister.

I would tend to agree.

The people voting liberal that I have talked to don't care about boats, or even really the economy. It really came down to not liking Gillard, Rudd or Swan at all for their actions during the past few years. People seem to forget that a whole lot of the Labor party resigned very recently. Even if you do think they have done a great job this term, pretty much all of those people are now gone!

Once you decide to hate somebody and get rid of them, you either stop listening or turn a blind eye to all the opposition problems. A lot of things can get blamed for the loss, like people getting fooled by papers or whatever, but ultimately the blame has to go to the Labor party themselves. It really should have been a no-brainer win.

I really don't think the Liberals will do any damage in this term, there isn't enough time and the senate will keep things in check. But if Labor doesn't get its shit together in three years, then there will probably start to be problems.

So, my question is, if you could, are there any major structural changes you guys would make to your government? Eliminate the Senate? Do you guys have any problem with gridlock? Like, something passing the House but not moving along in the Senate?

The system works pretty well. Where it fails is if the "wrong" person or party ends up with the balance of power. This is more a fault of voters though, just like "safe seats" and not the system itself.

 

[markot]

Screw you anti statite.

 

[lexi]

with proportional representation instead of FPTP.

I'm glad we don't have FPTP but we don't have proportional representation, The Greens have long been fighting for it for obvious reasons, but the major parties don't want a bar of it.

Had a good laugh last year when QLD labor got absolutely fucking wiped out to the taunts of 'so you'll be wanting that proportional representation now, right?'